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Topics - Bally6354

#51
Bally's Blog / Most recent two
August 04, 2013, 08:40:14 PM
Here is a pretty simple idea that may be worth testing a bit to see how it goes.

I will give a quick example using the sixlines and the quads.

Sixlines...

1-6
7-12
13-18
19-24
25-30
31-36

Quads...

1-9
10-18
19-27
28-36

I got the following numbers from Spielbank Wiesbaden.

24
13
31
19
27
29
24
4
18
29
30
14
22
29
17

I will convert the above numbers to the Quads first.

3
2
4
3
3
4
3
1
2
4
4
2
3
4
2

Now it's pretty simple. All you do is look for the most recent two of the same and bet for that until there is a change and you have a new most recent two.

So here is how it would go for the Quads.

3
2
4
3 **The 3 here is the most recent two**
3  win (+3)
4  loss (+2)
3  win (+5)
1  loss (+4)
2  loss (+3)
4  loss (+2)  **The 4 is now the most recent two**
4  win (+5)
2  loss (+4)
3  loss (+3)
4  win (+6)
2  loss (+5)  **The 2 is now the most recent two**


Now here are the numbers converted to the Sixlines.

4
3
6
4
5
5
4
1
3
5
5
3
4
5
3

Here is how it would go for the Sixlines.

4
3
6
4 **The 4 is the most recent two**
5  loss (-1)
5  loss (-2)  **The 5 is the most recent two**
4  loss (-3)
1  loss (-4)
3  loss (-5)
5  win (level)
5  win (+5)
3  loss (+4) 
4  loss (+3)
5  win (+8)
3  loss (+7)  **The 3 is the most recent two**

That's it basically.

I was thinking about progressions for this.

For the Quads...

Maybe something like 111 222 333

For the Sixlines...

1111 2222 3333

or something along those lines.

cheers








#52
General Discussion / The Ritz Casino in London
July 18, 2013, 08:14:02 AM
I was looking at their new flashy website the other day and found something interesting. (By the way, it is a lovely site with some really good pictures)

What I found interesting was in the 'rules of membership'

Here we go....

12. The Company reserves the right not to pay any gaming debt in circumstances where it knows or reasonably suspects that a member has won money by way of cheating. For the purpose of this rule 'cheating' includes any conduct which seeks to remove or reduce the element of chance and or seeks to give any advantage to the player. The Company shall have absolute discretion in deciding whether any activity amounts to cheating and also as to whether any such activity has taken place.

13. Any decision of the Company under these rules shall be conclusive and binding. It is a term and condition of membership that no legal proceedings shall be instituted by any member to challenge the ruling of the Company.


Talk about having your cake and eating it.






#53
Off-topic / ebay find!
June 19, 2013, 05:22:54 PM
Saw this on ebay today!

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

[attachimg=3]

The odds are not so good.  ;D

3/1 for a six line will have you broke in no time.

A nice toy if you have the room for it. The weight of it is 285 kilos.



#54
Math & Statistics / Interesting roulette simulator
April 15, 2013, 08:00:56 PM
 
I was looking around the net today for roulette stuff that I had not seen before and found this thing.

It is a neat little simulator which tests systems.

http://www.woodger.ca/roul/roul_awt.htm

Watching the little sliding arrow down the bottom gives you a rough idea as to what's happening when it is crunching through all the numbers.

cheers
#55
Off-topic / The world in 2030!
March 08, 2013, 02:46:48 PM
Watched this last night and thought it was great.

http://youtu.be/219YybX66MY
#56
Straight-up / The second cycle!
February 22, 2013, 11:32:13 PM
You walk up to a roulette table prepared to note down the first 37 spins.

Now you obviously have no idea at this stage what's about to appear.

But what about the second cycle of 37 spins?

Can any clues be gained from the first cycle?

Well there are normally 12 numbers left still to appear after the first lot of 37 spins.

What seems to be fairly common is that you will get two thirds of those 12 numbers appearing in the second cycle.

Does this help us in any way?

Well I think it's a small improvement from when first walking up to the table not knowing what is going to appear.

So let's take it a step further and use the CW pocket distances to give ourselves another set of 37 spins.

Now there should be on average two lots of missing 12 number sets after the first cycle.

This allows a little bit of wiggle room in case one of the 12 missing number sets underperforms.

So I took the first 75 spins from table 4 at the Spielbank Wiesbaden Casino in Germany to show you an example.

The picture shows the first cycle of 37 spins on the left.

Next to that is the CW pocket distances. This means how far the ball travelled towards the next pocket. CW = clockwise.

You can see that there are 12 numbers still missing from the original numbers +18 numbers still missing from the CW numbers. (18 is quite high)

I have listed these two sets of numbers to the far right.

My plan is to now wait for these missing numbers to come out and then start betting them all the way through the second cycle. I would anticipate seeing about 8 numbers appear in the first set and about 12 numbers appear in the second set in this example.

You can see all the betting action in the middle of the picture.

This was all done flat betting.

The results......

6 numbers appeared from the first set and 11 numbers appeared from the second set.

So they slightly underperformed as far as the average goes.

However the results were not bad considering it was flat betting and there were a few occasions when I could have quit with a half decent profit if playing for real.

The way I see it is like this!

The first cycle of 37 spins comes and goes....

There will normally be 12 numbers left in both lists....

On average, 8 of those numbers will appear in the second cycle from each list.

It would not seem unreasonable to expect a few repeats to appear.

So it may just take a little bit of guesswork out of the equation.

Cheers

p.s. One extra feature that I like about the idea is that it is possible you could get a double hit on one of the numbers because you could be placing two bets on the same number. The bets for the second set need to be calculated using the pocket distances. They are not fixed locations on every spin like the first set.

As an example....

The first bet comes in the second set and it's the 0.

So this would have you betting for a repeat of the last number out because the pocket distance is 0. It has not travelled.

#58
Here is something which you may find interesting.
 
It is based on finding the furthest back Dozen or Column using both the table layout and the wheel layout.

The best idea will be to show you an example of what I mean.

The first number out is 19.

This is represented by 2A. (2nd dozen and column A)

So far so good!

The next number out is 12.

This is represented by 1C.

So I have...

19 2A
12 1C

Now I am using the table layout to arrive at these.

However I also want to use the wheel layout as well.

So the first number out was 19 and it then went to 12.

I need to assign some dozen and column markings from the number 19.

It would look like this going around the wheel.

19 - 0
04 - 1A
21 - 1B
02 - 1C
25 - 1A
17 - 1B
34 - 1C
06 - 1A
27 - 1B
13 - 1C
36 - 1A
11 - 1B
30 - 1C
08 - 2A
23 - 2B
10 - 2C
05 - 2A
24 - 2B
16 - 2C
33 - 2A
01 - 2B
20 - 2C
14 - 2A
31 - 2B
09 - 2C
22 - 3A
18 - 3B
29 - 3C
07 - 3A
28 - 3B
12 - 3C
35 - 3A
03 - 3B
26 - 3C
00 - 3A
32 - 3B
15 - 3C

I hope you get the idea.

So the number 19 went to 12.

Looking at the 12 on that chart and you can see it's 3C.

So my marking card would look like this....

19 2A
12 1C 3C

I put the appropriate dozen and column from the table layout first.

Then I put the dozen and column from the wheel layout second.

The complicated part is that the wheel layout is going to change from spin to spin.

The number out after 19 was 12.

So the dozens and columns from number 12 are as follows....

12 - 0
35 - 1A
03 - 1B
26 - 1C
00 - 1A
32 - 1B
15 - 1C
19 - 1A
04 - 1B
21 - 1C
02 - 1A
25 - 1B
17 - 1C
34 - 2A
06 - 2B
27 - 2C
13 - 2A
36 - 2B
11 - 2C
30 - 2A
08 - 2B
23 - 2C
10 - 2A
05 - 2B
24 - 2C
16 - 3A
33 - 3B
01 - 3C
20 - 3A
14 - 3B
31 - 3C
09 - 3A
22 - 3B
18 - 3C
29 - 3A
07 - 3B
28 - 3C

So you can see the dozens and columns are always starting from the new number that appeared.

The 12 went to number 19.

19 2A
12 1C 3C
19 2A 1A

The 19 went to number 32.

19 2A
12 1C 3C
19 2A 1A
32 3B 3B

Now here is where I can find out what the furthest back dozen and column is for both the table layout and the wheel layout.

Looking at the first set from the table layout...

2A
1C
2A
3B

The furthest back is a tie between dozen 1 and column C.

Looking at the second set from the wheel layout...

3C
1A
3B

The furthest back is dozen 2. In fact it has not even appeared yet.

So the marking card now looks like this...

19 2A
12 1C 3C
19 2A 1A
32 3B (1C) 3B (2)

The furthest back is located in the brackets.

The 32 went to number 18.

19 2A
12 1C 3C
19 2A 1A
32 3B (1C) 3B (2)
18 2C (1) 3A (2)

1C was the tied furthest back from the table layout.

The C appeared and so now the 1 is the furthest back on its own.

The 2 is still the furthest back from the wheel layout.

Now here is the interesting part if you have got this far!

The furthest back dozen or column in both sets can go missing for long periods of time.

So how do you take advantage of this fact?

I will show you from the last number which was 18.

First of all, leave out the entire dozen 1.

That is the furthest back using the table layout.

Now it's a case of leaving out the furthest back 2 from the wheel layout.

Let's take a look from the last number out which was 18.

18 - 0
29 - 1A
07 - 1B...Left out.
28 - 1C
12 - 1A...Left out.
35 - 1B
03 - 1C...Left out.
26 - 1A
00 - 1B
32 - 1C
15 - 1A
19 - 1B
04 - 1C...Left out.
21 - 2A ...Leave out the 21.
02 - 2B...Already left out. (Belongs to dozen 1)
25 - 2C...Leave out the 25.
17 - 2A...Leave out the 17.
34 - 2B...Leave out the 34.
06 - 2C...Already left out.
27 - 2A...Leave out the 27.
13 - 2B...Leave out the 13.
36 - 2C...Leave out the 36.
11 - 2A...Already left out.
30 - 2B...Leave out the 30.
08 - 2C...Already left out.
23 - 3A
10 - 3B...Left out.
05 - 3C...Left out.
24 - 3A
16 - 3B
33 - 3C
01 - 3A...Left out.
20 - 3B
14 - 3C
31 - 3A
09 - 3B...Left out.
22 - 3C
So that is 20 numbers that are getting left out.

That only leaves 17 left to bet.

They are 18,29,28,35,26,0,32,15,19,23,24,16,33,20,14,31,22.

The 18 went to number 31.

19 2A
12 1C 3C
19 2A 2A
32 3B (1C) 3B (2)
18 2C (1) 3A (2)
31 3A (1) 3A (2)

The 1 is still missing from the table layout and the 2 is still missing from the wheel layout.

A session from Smartlive Casino last night produced a session where the 3 was the furthest back.

It was furthest back for both the table layout and the wheel layout and went on a 15 spin winning run.

I like the idea because the table layout and wheel layout are independent from each other.

You can get long runs of the furthest back stay missing for both.

Playing it this way equates to just slightly less than an even money chance.

There are a few things to take note about.

You could have 1C (a tie) missing in the table layout and 3 missing on the wheel layout.

You would need to leave out the entire 1C first which is 20 numbers.

Then you would leave out the 3 from the wheel layout.

This just means you end up betting less numbers.

It is possible you could have 2 ties for both the table layout and wheel layout.

This would result in very few numbers actually bet.

You also have the option of playing for the alternative to this bet.

That would mean looking for either the furthest back to APPEAR.

Say the 1 was furthest back for the table layout and the C was furthest back for wheel layout.

You would then bet all the first dozen and the C numbers from the wheel layout.

This works out to roughly about a 20 chip bet.

I have noticed after doing some research that it is not that difficult to follow the patterns with this.

I much prefer it as an alternative to an even money bet like RED or BLACK.
#59
Meta-selection / crazy ideas thread (GF at its finest)
February 16, 2013, 02:03:49 PM
This is where I am just going to unleash some of the ideas that come into my head from time to time regarding roulette.

Feel free to add your own.  :thumbsup:
#60
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / BALLY'S TRAP CHALLENGE
February 13, 2013, 10:48:09 PM
Here goes!

You first need a copy of the Racing Post.

I know they have an online version of it. I am not 100% sure if it is in the same format as what they put up on the walls in the bookmakers.

But anyway....

They nominate 2 greyhound meetings during the day as the 'Trap Challenge'.

The Racing Post form guide give 3 selections in each race for Tri-cast purposes.

So you need to give 3 points to each dog who they select to finish 1st.

2 points to each dog who they select to finish 2nd.

1 point to the dog who they select to finish 3rd.

Now they also have sectional times for the dogs and tell you what position the dog is in at each bend of the race.

All we are are interested in is the dogs position at the first bend. This is a crucial bit of information because you would be surprised how many dogs win who get the early lead and avoid any trouble in running which happens frequently.

Give any dog that you have gave points to an additional 1 point if it was 1st at the first bend in its last race.

Now you will normally find a clear selection on points after going through the card.

I have had times when a trap selection is 15-20 points clear of the next trap.

This to me is like a strong favourite in any particular race. But the great thing about it is that we are not going to get the same skinny price.

I had 2 last week that won at 4/1 and 9/2.

I will give an example sometime over the next few days of exactly how I arrive at my figures and show the betting forecast.

cheers.
#61
General Discussion / Wheel Movement Studies
February 12, 2013, 12:13:08 AM
There appears to be some interest on this topic at the moment on different forums.

It is something that I spent a lot of time studying.

So I will share some ideas and thoughts on the subject.

My personal opinion is that it makes no difference seperating spins between CW and CCW.

You can just as easily use one or the other full stop.

Here is one thing that always stood out for me...

I will write out 37 numbers and the CW distances for all 37 numbers.

(I just got these numbers from r-xtreme)

14
24 32
35 14
12 36
12 00
14 29
08 28
03 19
14 27
24 32
16 01
21 21
27 06
12 22
11 18
16 07
25 23
21 35
33 17
23 32
01 06
22 05
25 16
00 30
34 09
28 23
18 34
24 28
13 29
18 17
15 10
00 35
25 07
16 14
11 30
36 36
09 14
35 07

So the numbers on the left are the actual numbers that appeared and the numbers on the right are the CW distances.

Now look at the following two pictures where I have marked in the numbers that appeared with a 1.

The first pic is the CW distances and the second pic is the wheel layout.

[attachimg=1]


[attachimg=2]

There are a few things to notice here.

Both sets more or less always confirm to the 'rule of the third'.

The other thing is how you get clumps appearing.

The two examples I circled are both showing more than double the expected hits.

You will see this most of the time and it does not matter how you arrange the numbers.

More to come....

cheers.




#62
The autowheel that I play on at my local casino was shut down this afternoon.

It's certainly the first time I have ever seen that happen.

The second dozen went missing for roughly 20 spins. Then after a double 15, it went missing for a further 33 spins.

I came back from dinner and it was closed. The manager said that there was some kind of malfunction with it.  :-X

Now obviously the second dozen can't just go missing on purpose. I wonder if they have some kind of bias analysis software and it triggered some kind of red flag.
#63
Things always hot up on the final day!

Paris St Germain signing Becham!

That one is obviously a commercial deal more than anything else!
#64
General Discussion / @Ralph
January 29, 2013, 01:13:00 PM
Hello Ralph

Here is something interesting.

Look at session 5 and session 6.

[attachimg=1]

They both have more or less the same time frame and exact winning amount.

Now I have noticed this phenomenon a lot in your logs as well.

It seems to come in waves.

I don't know if it's just me, but you would not really expect that in a random game.

Is something more spooky going on which we don't know about?  ???

Maybe not of course and it could be just some kind of temporary 'bias' going on.

It's interesting all the same.

cheers.
#65
Street / system9 revisited
January 27, 2013, 09:31:58 PM
This will be an explanation of how I would play system9 a little bit differently from the tracker/bot. It is a less volatile way to play.

I will upload the Master Chart here which contains everything you need for tracking and betting.

Master Chart.

1-1=1,12.
1-2=1,2.
1-3=2,3,4.
1-4=3,4,6.
1-5=4,5,8.
1-6=5,6,10.
1-7=6,7,11.
1-8=7,8,9.
1-9=7,8,9.
1-10=5,9,10.
1-11=3,10,11.
1-12=1,11,12.

2-1=1,10,11.
2-2=2,12.
2-3=1,2,3.
2-4=2,4.
2-5=3,5,6.
2-6=4,6,8.
2-7=5,7,9.
2-8=6,7,8.
2-9=5,7,9.
2-10=3,8,10.
2-11=1,9,11.
2-12=10,11,12.

3-1=1,8,10.
3-2=2,10,11.
3-3=3,12,12.
3-4=1,2,4.
3-5=2,4,5.
3-6=3,6.
3-7=4,7.
3-8=5,8.
3-9=3,6,9.
3-10=1,7,10.
3-11=8,11.
3-12=9,12.

4-1=1,6,9.
4-2=2,8,10.
4-3=3,10,11.
4-4=4,12.
4-5=1,2,5.
4-6=2,4,6.
4-7=3,5,7.
4-8=3,4,8.
4-9=1,5,9.
4-10=6,10,11.
4-11=7,9,11.
4-12=7,8,12.

5-1=1,4,8.
5-2=2,6,9.
5-3=3,8,10.
5-4=4,10,11.
5-5=5,12.
5-6=1,2,6.
5-7=2,3,7.
5-8=1,3,8.
5-9=4,9,11.
5-10=5,9,10.
5-11=6,7,11.
5-12=5,7,12.

6-1=1,2,7.
6-2=2,4,8.
6-3=3,6,9.
6-4=4,8,10.
6-5=5,10,11.
6-6=6,12.
6-7=1,7.
6-8=2,8,11.
6-9=3,9.
6-10=4,7,10.
6-11=5,11.
6-12=3,6,12.

7-1=1,6.
7-2=2,3,7.
7-3=3,5,8.
7-4=4,7,9.
7-5=5,9,10.
7-6=6,11.
7-7=7,12.
7-8=1,8,10.
7-9=2,8,9.
7-10=3,6,10.
7-11=4,11.
7-12=2,5,12.

8-1=1,3,5.
8-2=2,5,6.
8-3=3,7.
8-4=4,8,9.
8-5=5,9,11.
8-6=1,6,10.
8-7=2,7,11.
8-8=8,12.
8-9=1,9,10.
8-10=2,8,10.
8-11=3,6,11.
8-12=4,12.

9-1=1,4,5.
9-2=2,5,7.
9-3=3,6,9.
9-4=4,7,11.
9-5=1,5,8.
9-6=3,6,9.
9-7=4,7,10.
9-8=2,8,11.
9-9=9,12.
9-10=1,10.
9-11=2,8,11.
9-12=3,6,12.

10-1=1,3,7.
10-2=2,4,9.
10-3=3,5,11.
10-4=1,4,6.
10-5=3,5,7.
10-6=5,6,8.
10-7=6,7,9.
10-8=4,8,10.
10-9=2,9,11.
10-10=10,12.
10-11=1,10,11.
10-12=2,8,12.

11-1=1,2,9.
11-2=2,3,11.
11-3=1,3,4.
11-4=3,4,5.
11-5=5,6.
11-6=6,7.
11-7=7,8.
11-8=6,8,9.
11-9=4,9,10.
11-10=2,10,11.
11-11=11,12.
11-12=1,10,12.

12-1=1,11.
12-2=1,2.
12-3=3.
12-4=4,5.
12-5=5,7.
12-6=6,9.
12-7=7,10.
12-8=8.
12-9=6,9.
12-10=4,10.
12-11=2,11.
12-12=12.

Here is a screenshot of the session I will be running through.

#66
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / The Solidus
January 23, 2013, 01:11:25 AM
The Solidus was a book written by Dave Towey away back in the 90's.

It was a bit of a revolutionary way of thinking and many good trainers of the day learned how to place their horses to better effect after studying the concepts in this book.

It was never widely available and finding a copy now would be like finding hens teeth.

It was however serialized in late 2003 in the monthly magazine Smartsig. (Smartsig was like the shrewdies bible for a period of a few years where some of the best AP players contributed their knowledge)

I will reproduce it here and maybe some of you will gain some knowledge from it and even come up with your own ideas after studying it.

I will add I know of several people who won national tipping competitions using the criteria in the Solidus for finding selections.

cheers.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/i81ydog6ug3ypiq/The%20Solidus.CV01.pdf?m
#67
Positive / Experimenting with the Reverse Labouchere
January 20, 2013, 06:03:28 PM
I would like to start a thread on this particular MM plan with the idea of just experimenting and to see if it can be improved upon. This one fascinates me and I think it's possible that it could be manipulated to great effect.

Here is just one idea that I found on another forum. (see pdf attatched)
#68
Math & Statistics / A question for the maths guys!
January 18, 2013, 08:33:58 PM
Just getting a few opinions would be great as well.  :thumbsup:

We all know that you will get twice as many singles as repeats and so forth....

So my question is the following.

Let's say you are playing a martingale. {1 2 4 8} Are you subject to the same negative expectancy on every bet?
#70
Off-topic / horsemeat found in 'tesco' burgers!!
January 17, 2013, 10:13:45 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21054688

Last time I buy my burgers from Tesco's!

I have had the trots all day.  :))
#71
General Discussion / Team Play
January 04, 2013, 06:30:15 PM
Joseph Jagger (AP)

Pelayos (AP)

Norman Leigh (non-AP)

Billy Walters (AP)

Ken Uston (AP)

Patrick o'neil Dunne (non-AP)

What do all these guys have in common?

They all played as part of a team and all claimed to win at their chosen game!

Do we underestimate the difficulty of winning by playing alone?

I am not talking about the recreational player here. More about someone who is playing with an idea to supplement his/her income. You may say that can't be done. The people above claimed to do it. Two of them are non-AP as well!

Has anybody here played as part of a team! How did it go?

What would be the advantages and disadvantages?

#72
It is basically the following......


Go up one step after each loss and down one step after a win and start over after back-to-back wins or 2-out-of-3 wins.

He wrote a book in 1995 titled 'Beat the casino'. This is one of the many ideas he shared.

cheers

p.s. It would be nice if somebody had a copy of that book.  ;)

#73
A new member called Squeezebox wrote a very insightful post on the following thread.

http://betselection.cc/newcomers-lounge/read-this-the-best-advice-you'll-ever-get-!!/msg5699/#new

Here is a quote...

''I know that there are bucket-loads of mathematicians out there who state categorically that mathematically-based systems cannot defeat the wheel - but, again, I am not one of them.  Maybe my view is based on the romantic notion that "there is more under the sky that has not been discovered ... yada yada etc." but I am convinced that it can be done.  Further, I believe that it HAS been done'' - sqzbox

So I am running this poll to see what the general concensus is like.

What interested me recently was a number of posters on several forums claiming that they had accounts closed from some of the Live Dealer internet casinos. (They were still allowed to play the RNG version!)

All views are welcome as long as they remain on topic.

cheers  :thumbsup:

NB: The word Consistent for this poll means: You can overcome the 2.70% or 5.40% disadvantage.
#74
Gizmotron / DIALOGUE WITH BRYAN
December 30, 2012, 02:13:52 AM
Quote from: sqzbox on December 30, 2012, 01:29:46 AM
I write my own programs to test theories and concepts before playing.  Guess what!  I still don't play!

Fascinating! What concepts should we avoid in your opinion to save ourself some time?

welcome to the forum!  :thumbsup:
#75
Less is more!

This especially applies to my sports bets (cricket, tennis and football)

I read in a book that a loss should hurt you and that it is the best way to learn from your mistakes. So I decided to employ super patience this year and just wait for the time that I considered all the factors were in favour of my selection and then really have a go!

Andy Murray was my hero this year!  :cheer: