Thanks for the reply Vic and I agree with what you say. Obviously whatever you decide should be in the best interests of your family and you personally. Should this vehicle prove not to be the one where your good intentions can be advanced, then at least take heart in the fact that you gave it your best shot, never judged anyone and provided a lot of entertainment and help for people.

best regards

Hello Vic,

The way I see it is that you need to get as much volume from as many different posters as possible and it will then drown out the indifference some people seem to have towards each other because it won't be as prominant and in your face. There are quite a few 'members' who log in here and have been around for a year/2 years+ and have never even made a post. How could they be encouraged to post?

Maybe the site needs a revamp to bring back some creativity. Personally speaking, I wouldn't really care if my 'blog' disappeared because well it was my own personal journey and me relaying my ideas, It isn't really going to help anybody win at the Casino because ultimately all the ideas failed. Maybe the site could be streamlined into just a few sections which might help more people to feel on a level footing and therefore contribute.

Anyway, those are just my initial thoughts.

cheers

You know, sometimes doing the complete opposite is not the worst way to research!

Thinking about how in the first 10 numbers, you will get on average 9 originals with 1 repeat, I was thinking where do the originals come from? Playing around with Ayk's tracker and based on my own experiences, a lot of numbers in close proximity (either numerical or wheel based) do tend to clump. So looking for these early originals, look for the 'paired' number.

1,2
3,4
5,6
7,8
9,10 etc...

So if 31 appears, play 32. If 9 appears, play 10. Gradually increase the stakes as more numbers appear for the bet.

First run produced the following...

[attachimg=1]

The biggest ever unit required on a group of numbers was 4. There were a few 100 unit drawdowns but a lot of plain sailing in-between.
I could be wrong because I never bothered to look in-depth to the Vaddis idea but was he not using some kind of 'pairs' idea.

Anyway, food for thought I suppose.

cheers

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on June 03, 2019, 11:48:05 PM

Final note

If a bac player have found betting lines capable to get a long term edge,  this edge will be quite limited hence susceptible to great fluctuations. That's why we should think about the large picture and not about the stupi.d single shoe we're playing at.

as.

Hello Asym, I was thinking about what you were saying regarding great fluctuations. I am sure many people would agree and think to themselves ''let's suppose you have a 1 or 2% edge similar to card counting in BJ, then surely the fluctuations would be similar.''

However the difference that I see is that in BJ, the dealer has the same chance to get the good hands as well. It's annoying to sit there for an hour, get a positive true count and then start laying out some decent bets only to see the dealer keep pipping your 19 with a 20 or getting a BJ against your 20. In Baccarat, the dealer doesn't get to come along for the ride if you are reading things well at any given moment in time. They (the Casino) have to take the losses and I see that as a huge difference between the two games.

cheers

So in essence and on average, you will get 6 repeats from only 18 numbers (50% of the wheel) in the first 24 spins. If nobody can win or find a way to win using these parameters, well then, it begs the question, doesn't it!

If you are going to follow this type of logic, then you can also say that after 24 numbers out, you will get on average 18 originals with 6 repeats.

You can add to that and on average the first 10 numbers out will only contain 1 repeat. Further to that and a lot of the time you will get the repeats coming from the first few numbers out.  (obvious really because they have more chances to repeat)

A quick snapshot from the first set of 24 numbers I pulled up.

[attachimg=1]

So 21 original numbers here with only 3 repeats.

The first 10 numbers were all originals with no repeats.

The repeats themselves (6, 25, 29) originally came out on spins 2, 6 and 8.

So nothing too surprising in that little lot.

What could anybody make from all of this?

I am not  so sure but getting all your ducks to line up in a row is not so easy with a load of different variables.

Thinking about some of the old Roulette/Gambling forums and some of the crazy characters on them had me thinking about some of the real-life crazies I have encountered in a few of the different B+M Casinos where I have played.

Around the early 2000's, I went on an incredibly lucky spell at Roulette. It was like I had the Midas touch or something and it was unusual over a period of around 6-12 months where I didn't come home at least winning something. It's not just the Casino that notices winning players, the other patrons also cotton on real fast and you soon make a whole load of new friends. As a pretty much wet behind the ears kid in my 20's, I didn't really have the cynical thought that they were just interested in tapping me for a loan or trying to figure out what the hell I was doing different from them because they kept losing their cash in a rapid fashion. Even when I did eventually twig, I didn't mind buying them a few drinks or something to eat. It provided a captive audience to talk shop and no doubt massaged my ego.

Now this one guy (Keith) was Asian and would probably only weigh around 7 stone wet through. He was a student and didn't have much money. A typical system player who was never going to win anything because he was actually afraid to bet. He would wait for ages until he saw something really dominant and then bet for it to continue. He nearly always missed out and this guy would literally be at the airport when his ship came in. So I said to Keith one night to sit down in the bar and I would bring over a few pints of beer. So I take them over and excuse myself because I needed to go to the bathroom. On coming out of the restroom, something on one of the roulette tables must have caught my attention and I placed a few bets. In the corner of my eye, I notice two security guards storming up the aisle behind the table and one of them had this guy by the feet and the other is holding his head and shoulders. The guy is completely flaked out. Now it's not something you usually see and on closer inspection, it's Keith that they are carting out to the reception. Looking over to the bar and sure enough he is not there.

It turned out that poor Keith hadn't had anything to eat for a day or so and the beer which he  wasn't used to had made him faint. So from that day onwards he became known as 'half-pint Charlie'.

Feel free to share your funny casino stories / anecdotes. 

The name Bo Hawkins rings a bell from the old GG days. I don't read the archives there anymore because of the virus warnings that different posters have mentioned.
There were some real characters back in the day for sure. There was a guy that lived in Vegas called Rob who seemed to know the score with all his 'gaming alert' threads mentioning what the local Casinos were up to. I enjoyed his posts and then there were some complete nutcases like that 'senlung' character promoting all the Dragon stuff which turned out to be a load of nonsense. I wonder if anybody ever found out what the bet selection was for his super-deluxe strategy which went for crazy money. Funny/strange times in a way not to be repeated.

Johno, so you were the one with Bryan's triggers!  I think it was some kind of running joke in a way where hundreds of people (or so it seemed) kept coming out of the woodwork asking for Bryan's triggers.

I found it for anyone interested but last time I posted up something from this 'wayback' site, it just re-directed to the home page I think. The original Baccarat site itself is now long gone.

https://web.archive.org/web/20110713042010/http://baccaratforums.com/t6335/

Thanks for posting up that Johno!

So although we can deduce that Baccarat is roughly a 50-50 game, there is a lot going on under the surface with all the different betting opportunities such as FLD, OLD etc...

Now obviously all these different bet selections can't be appearing all at the same time. Some of them could be missing for the majority of a shoe. Let's face it, things don't happen like they are supposed to! For if the law governing the long run were truly replicated over the short run, casino table games would have been extinct long ago!

Alrelax posted up this shoe on one of his most recent winning threads. On the face of things 30 Bankers vs 25 Players does not sound too extreme right?

[attachimg=1]

However there are three situations in this particular shoe where there is a short term discrepancy of 20 decisions involving a binary decision. The amount of short term disproportionate occurrence in this shoe was off the richter scale and it's no wonder the chip tray was half emptied.

As Craig Greiner states in his book  ''The challenge of the game presents a unique paradox! The short run is unequitable to the long run. So when it comes to gaming relationships and probabilities, though the whole is still equal to the sum of its parts, the parts themselves are not simply abbreviated versions of the whole''

Now talking about gaming relationships, here is a shoe that you yourself posted around a week ago!

[attachimg=2]

I found this one interesting because of how after getting at least two Bankers, the next Player was only a single for the majority of the shoe. So there is a relationship forming between different bet selections here if you are able to see it and therefore the so called 'trick' in my opinion is how do you build your framework or arrange your marking so that you can spot/anticipate these occurrences before they are over. But if you can do it, then it allows you the luxury of using positive progressions like the G3M1 for example because you can be confident that a lot of your wins will come in clumps.

Well done on your win Alrelax,

Unfortunately the Casino where I play doesn't have the F7 bet or many of the other side bets.
They only have the traditional B vs P and Tie along the with the  your Way Egalite.

On the subject of Camaraderie, I suppose it's more prevalent in Baccarat because of the fewer options compared to Roulette. However, I can remember way back to the early 90's and there was a small group where I used to play who preferred the game of Baccarat over Roulette. They always seemed quite happy and it was almost like they were having some kind of party most nights with the 'leader' of that particular group a very jovial character. One thing that stands out as well on reflection is they were more of them at the cash-out desk at 2.00am when the Casino closed than us Roulette players for the most part.

Where I play now is in the heart of Chinatown and that type of atmosphere I described above is certainly not prevalent. A lot of the gamblers seem to be younger nowadays in there 20's-30's and seem more obsessed/introverted even though a few of them are betting 100's up to a couple of thousand a hand, they don't show too much emotion. It's every man and women for themselves.

Hello Vic,

Something to think about for the forum would be some type of Baccarat Simulator.
Steve has his roulette game, however, there is nothing similar for baccarat.
It would likely attract some new members and create discussion on the game itself.
The spin-offs could be a livelier forum with some coding work for any interesting systems/strategies.

cheers

These couple of shoes from Johno (although extreme in how they group up from FTL to OLD) show how the 2nd's and 3rd's can perform well.

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

The first shoe and the 3rd's show WWWWW

Second shoe and the 3rd's show LLLLLL

Also there is a streak of 8 L's in the 2nd's First shoe and a streak of 9 L's in the 2nd's Second shoe. All great for anything using an up as you win progression. Obviously it's not always as plain sailing as that but it shows pretty much where you will do well if you choose to play around with this idea.

cheers

Quote from: 8OR9 on May 23, 2019, 10:51:45 PM
  Thanx for the update.  Below is an old post of yours ....could you give and example of how you determined the W or L for 2nd's and 3rd's......seems like all the numbers were black.

8OR9, Here is a brief example using Heads and Tails to explain the 2nd and 3rd's concept.

[attachimg=1]

The idea is that you will isolate a point in time where you can capture a group of W in either the 2nd or 3rd's on one of the E/C's.
Greiner states in his book that these are not to be categorized as patterns such as FTL for example. He says a pattern is a group of decisions and / or a bet selection method which conforms to a format. By contrast the 2nd and 3rd's identify an exact point in time within the structure of the probability mode itself. Now maybe that's just all a nice play on words because as each decision is independent, then what else are you doing apart from looking for betting a FTL decision even if that means waiting several decisions and jumping around columns.

Don't get me wrong because I am not saying this stuff can't hold up for a long time along with his use of positive progressions. Betting every hand is not an ideal situation at times IMO and so timing your bets with MM which isn't suicidal could see your bankroll go along way and I can see how a lot of my own thoughts regarding successful play were shaped by Greiner's work.

Quote from: alrelax on May 24, 2019, 01:46:04 PM
I am hurting today, about 1 and a half hour sleep.  What a session, what a great session.  And I did this last night because of the great email I got from AsymB, thank you buddy!  Those few sentences sent me out with the song I love in my mind, Burning Down The House.

Reminds me of one of my favourites along similar lines.