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Messages - Bally6354

#151
Bally's Blog / Re: The 00 Wheel
March 09, 2016, 12:01:12 AM
So leaving aside the 0/00 for the moment....The first one has 20 numbers and the second one has 16 numbers.

Now looking at the second one containing 16 numbers. Look at the 1, 3, 4 and 6 numbers.

[attachimg=1]


This just then leaves the 15-18 split and the 19-22 split.

[attachimg=2]

These two splits are intersected by the 31-34 split as you can see above.

#152
Bally's Blog / Re: The 00 Wheel
March 08, 2016, 11:54:53 PM
So here we are with the 2 Green's.

[attachimg=1]


There are two sections that I am going to show you.

The first one.

[attachimg=2]

Here it is on the Carpet Layout.

[attachimg=3]


The second one.

[attachimg=4]


Here it is on the Carpet Layout.

[attachimg=5]






#153
Bally's Blog / The 00 Wheel
March 08, 2016, 11:46:45 PM
Anyone remember 'Number 6' ? One of my favourite posters of all time.

Anyway, he had this to say way back.

[attachimg=1]

So I am going to show a few things that some of you may already know or have not really noticed.
#154
B-T-W, I will make an educated guess and say the Horror no. 4 session was on a 00 wheel even though I have not seen the numbers.

True or False?

cheers
#155
Bally's Blog / The Boxer
February 25, 2016, 12:16:54 AM
The Boxer is both a concise and potent progression. It limits the amount of net risk at any given point to a paltry 1 unit, while delivering a hefty 8 unit net profit on just a 4 win window of results. The Boxer predominately employs ''up as you win'', with some use of ''re-betting'' of losing bets.
Winning bets progress 1a to 2a, 2a to 2b, 2b to 3b, and 3c back to 3b. Note: Winning 3b completes the series. Losing bets progress (1a remains at 1a) 2a back to 1a, 2b back to 2a, 3b to 3c and 3c back to 1a to start over.

The Boxer is a good progression for environments that will regularly produce either short streaks, or close knit groups of wins.

Here are a few examples....

1.   -1, +1, +2a, -2b, +2a, -2b, -2a. (2 coups resulting in -2)
2.   -1, -1, +1, +2a, -2b, +2a, +2b, -3b, +3c, +3b. (3 coups resulting in +6)
3.   -1, +1, +2a, +2b, -3b, -3c. (2 coups resulting in -2)
4.   +1, +2a, -2b, +2a, +2b, +3b. (1 coup resulting in +8)
#156
Bally's Blog / The 'Law' of Disproportionate Occurrence
February 24, 2016, 07:52:39 PM
The Law of Disproportionate Occurrence.

Though the dice, the roulette wheel, and the cards ''have no memory'', what they do have is a conscience, and this conscience is called a PROBABILITY MODEL. As most of you probably already know, there exists what are known as probability models for each of the games, and the various bets which make up the games. Where infinity (the long-run) is concerned, these probability models provide that there will be ''x'' number of ''apples'' to ''x'' number of ''oranges''. In general, 50 ''heads'' for every 50 ''tails''. With each game and each probability model, the most common occurrence of any particular event is the first one, or one. The next most common is the second, or two, the third or three, and so on.

However a glaring misconception occurs when considering the short-run in the same manner! Reality unquestionably evidences the existence of a second ''bi-polar'' law, or what is probably more accurately identified as a ''counter-polar'' law that governs the short-run. This phenomenon is witnessed by what we commonly describe as ''things don't happen like they're supposed to''!
For if the law governing the long-run were truly duplicated in the short-run, casino table games would have been extinct long ago. The challenge would be simple because of obviously already knowing for example, that with every 100 spins of the roulette wheel, that there must be exactly 50 red numbers to the 50 black numbers within those specific 100 spins. Well it doesn't quite work that way now does it?

Not only do we know that ''it doesn't work that way'', we can also accurately state that the law of the long-run isn't dictated to prevail in the short-run, and it is in fact extremely rare that it does duplicate itself perfectly in the short-run. Hence, through actual observation of the short-run, the fact is established that the law governing the long-run IS NOT duplicated in the short-run. Therefore, the challenge of the games present this unique paradox: the short-run is inequitable to the long-run!
So when it comes to gaming relationships and probabilities, though the whole is still equal to the sum of its parts, the parts themselves are not simply abbreviated versions of that whole.

Though the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence doesn't need to be academically justified or philosophically rationalized, it commands acknowledgement. There is nothing we can do to fight it or eliminate it. And why should we anyway? If we learn to exploit it instead of challenge it, the results will be greatly to our advantage! Furthermore, this is the same exact law that the casinos now worship to enjoy a ''take'' of 15 to 20 percent plus, instead of just the miniscule 2+/- percent that the ''commission'' would offer by itself. Therefore, once you acknowledge that the casino is nothing more than the host for the games, then and only then, will you be able to accept that the Law of Disproportionate Occurrence is absolutely the ''phenomenon'' which will aid you in taking the casino's money, while they are left void of a defense!
#157
Straight-up / Re: Flat 4
February 19, 2016, 01:15:28 AM
Easy to track and easy to play.

After 18 spins.....

H had 5 hits.
2 had 8 hits.

So a bet on H2 on the 19th spin.
Bet H2 on 20th spin.
Bet H2 on 21st spin.
Bet H2 on 22nd spin. HIT!! +32.

H2 was leading all the way for those 4 spins and so it was a nice win just betting the single number.
#158
Straight-up / Re: Flat 4
February 19, 2016, 12:12:16 AM
I did come up with a tweak after some thought.

Let's take the 0 wheel groups. They start at A. 5-6-22-32. So let's add numbers 1,2,3,4 to the original numbers.

This leaves....

5=A1
6=A2
22=A3
32=A4

Here are all the numbers.

1=E1
2=H1
3=K1
4=D1
5=A1
6=A2
7=D2
8=J1
9=L1
10=L2
11=E2
12=H2
13=C1
14=J2
15=B1
16=C2
17=K2
18=B2
19=C3
20=H3
21=E3
22=A3
23=K3
24=B3
25=J3
26=L3
27=B4
28=E4
29=C4
30=H4
31=K4
32=A4
33=D3
34=L4
35=J4
36=D4

Use the 1,2,3,4 numbers the same as you would use the A,B,C,D,E,H,J,K,L.

What this does is reduce the bets to sometimes just 1 or 2 bets and also means you can play all numbers if there is a tie because it should still only leave a few numbers to bet.

Thanks to Ken for the original idea and I hope this tweak is useful.
#159
Another 39 games.

[attachimg=1]



#160
Well done on tipping the DRAW in the Brazil-Chile game Alexandro. [smiley]aes/beer.png[/smiley]

Neymar looked the coolest person in the whole stadium when he took his penalty.

They (Brazil) may not be as talented as previous World Cup winning sides, however they may be hard to stop with a bit of improvement to come. I heard that they have not lost a competitive home game since 1975. Now that's some stat!!
#161
Thanks to all the people who voted.  :thumbsup:
#162
Another 52 games.

[attachimg=1]


This has been a good experience. The speed of the dealers compared to the B+M casinos I visit has sharpened me up a bit.

After I complete 1000 games with the streets, I may then try again with the splits and see how that goes.

cheers

#163
Another 37 games to finish the day on.

[attachimg=1]

I have managed to fit in more games than I anticipated because of the rain here and also watching some of the football. At this rate, I will probably complete 1000 games within the next 3/4 days.

cheers

#164
Here is a useful little tool for calculating your z-score even if you are betting different combinations of bets from spin to spin.

Bayes created this and it's very good. I don't think he will mind me uploading up here.

cheers

#165
Played another 53 games today and the variance was kind again.

[attachimg=1]


I will keep plodding away until 1000 games and then tally everything up.

cheers