Here is an issue however....

I am just going to bet the streets in this challenge and nothing else.

However I don't always bet 6 streets which equals an e/c.

Here are the first few results....


[attachimg=1]


The bets were as follows....

1) 2 streets. LOSS.
2) 5 streets. WON.
3) 5 streets. LOSS.
4) 1 street. LOSS.
5) 2 streets. LOSS.
6) 3 streets. WON.
7) 2 streets. WON.
8} 5 streets. WON.
9) 2 streets. LOSS.

So I suppose the answer is to add up all the streets and divide them by 6. This will represent how many e/c bets I have placed.

I bet a total of 27 streets above which equals four and a half e/c bets and I had 4 wins. (That's actually quite confusing, lol)

ok...I am ready to go now and show how it's done. 

I was reading an interesting thread over on Rouletteforum.cc where Skakus came out ahead +150 units over 8,000 placed bets and finished with a z-score of near 5. That's impressive stuff considering he should have been down around 200 units without the en prison rule.

Don't get me wrong. I have read posts where people have been ahead after 1/2 a million spins. But how many attempts did it take and was it repeatable. So it will be interesting to see how long it takes me to get to +150. I don't think it will take me as long as Skakus. Playing 6 streets as an e/c opposed to either red/black etc offers a lot more room for manoeuvre IMO.

Nothing is going to happen quick. I will probably be able to fit in around 40/50 placed bets a night. Dublinbet spin too quick during the day unless there are a few players are at the table.

Quote from: Mike on June 22, 2014, 12:18:35 PM
Bally,


I appreciate the gesture, and looking forward to your results.


I'd like to volunteer to be that someone. 

Cheers and no problem. I would trust you to report the facts. 

When it all boils down to it, the only way to keep the naysayers quiet (for a little while at least) is to prove you can win.

The only way to do that is in a fashion that they can understand and can't really dispute.

The answer lies in statistics. There is a concept in statistics called ''Chance of Randomness'' (COR). This is an exact statistical measurement of how 'lucky' a series of events are.

The COR figure is derived by computing the Standard Deviation of an event. The Standard Deviation measures how much better the results are compared to random.

A +4.0 Standard Deviation represents a COR of 31,574. There is almost no question that skill was involved if someone performs at that level. Especially on their first attempt.

Myself and a few others it seems were quite happy to take the test on the in-house game on the other forum before it vanished. So I will challenge myself against the live wheel at Dublinbet and post up the results.

My play will comprise of an even money bet. However that's not playing the outside E/C bets. I said above that I don't believe you can win consistently playing those.

My idea of an E/C bet is a combination of Streets, Splits and Single numbers which will comprise of no more than an E/C bet. (sometimes less)

I will start on Monday and dedicate a few hours each day to playing. My play is in short bursts because of the taxing nature of tracking and analysing the permanence looking for bets to place. I will achieve the minimum COR requirement of +4.0 standard deviations as mentioned above.

Naturally, I don't mind someone checking my account when I have finished to make sure everything was above board.

cheers

Quote from: esoito on June 20, 2014, 11:38:03 PM
Definitions of System

(We all need to be singing from the same sheet!)

   
• A group of independent but interrelated elements comprising a unified whole
• A complex of methods or rules governing behaviour
• A procedure or process for obtaining an objective

Sounds good to me!   

I was just watching France dismantle Switzerland 5-2 and they looked good.

That's 8 goals so far in their 2 group games. They are 4/1 to finish as the top European team.

Germany are the 1/1 favourites. That price looks skinny compared to the 4/1 for the French.

Here is a good analogy,

Many years ago, I was at Catterick racecourse and a friend of mine introduced me to Mary Reveley who was one of the better trainers at that particular time.  We had a 5 minute chat and I will always remember her telling me that I wouldn't find many of her winners in the formbook.

It was a good lesson to learn early on my gambling life. You need to apply filters to sort out the wheat from the chaff and roulette is not that much different in my opinion.

I agree with XXXV about looking under the surface to see what you can find. In fact, there are quite often more 'elegant patterns' than you can shake a stick at going on. But you won't be aware of them if you limit your approach to just one particular type of bet.

There are many games going on within games depending on how you look at things. Some of those games will be throwing up an unequal level of distribution which can be taken advantage of in short bursts.

We can't change the odds, but we can decide when to bet, where to bet and how much to bet. It's important to think positive and look for different angles that can deliver a quick knockout punch and not get bogged down in the 'long run'.

cheers

I voted no.

It is possible to have a consistent winning Roulette system.

I will list some of my thoughts.

•   You can't win betting every spin. (You need to be able to identify when the permanence is going against everything you bet)
•   You can't win just betting the E/C bets. (A winning system needs to be varied in the approach)
•   You can't increase your stake after a losing bet. (It makes no logical sense to increase your stakes when your predictions are wrong)

The great thing about Roulette in my opinion is the odds on offer for the streets, splits and single numbers. Unlike Baccarat where you can only win at 1/1 or BJ where you may get lucky hitting a few splits, roulette offers the opportunity to win big in just a few spins if you are correct with your predictions.



cheers

I thought I would start a poll on this after reading one of XXXV's posts.

The poll lasts for 10 days and you can only see the results after you have voted.

Don't be shy and post up your vote and thoughts if you wish.

cheers


p.s. This poll does not take into account any form of Visual Ballistics or using any kind of Device.

If the Casino manipulate these results, then it's also fair to say that they manipulate everything else.

So that means the slots are fixed and the cards are fixed.

I am not buying that. Someone somewhere would have blown the whistle and I am not talking about dodgy RNG Casinos from unusual locations either.

I have known a few croupiers in my time who were sacked for minor things. They would have got revenge and blown the lid on cheating casinos.

Ken,

You can click on the 'no zoom' button and then you don't get the screen popping out to give you a bigger picture of the wheel.

Quote from: Mr J on June 16, 2014, 12:00:34 AM
Just so I understand this....you can NOT stand there (not talking at home) and watch it spun, correct?

Ken

No! You can't do that.

Have a look at these Mr J.

http://www.supercasino.com/launch/flash/index.php?myGameCode=rep2&myFreePlay=PreviewMode&cu=GBP&la=en&myBrandCode=sc&myRandm=509452817&gameParams=dW5pcXVlSWQ9VDlKdE15OFp5YXB1R3dPWENhT0RRWHN5MnpmaE14bVdvaTUzcVhVUFp1cyZnYW1lQXV0aFVybD1odHRwOi8vd3d3LnN1cGVyY2FzaW5vLmNvbS9yZXNvdXJjZS9zZXJ2ZXIvZ2FtZWF1dGg=&mySubType=rep2_sc&myOver=empty&t=&connectNPS=no&demoWebChat=no


http://www.supercasino.com/launch/flash/index.php?myGameCode=re2&myFreePlay=PreviewMode&cu=GBP&la=en&myBrandCode=sc&myRandm=888097423&gameParams=dW5pcXVlSWQ9VDlKdE15OFp5YXB1R3dPWENhT0RRWHN5MnpmaE14bVdvaTUzcVhVUFp1cyZnYW1lQXV0aFVybD1odHRwOi8vd3d3LnN1cGVyY2FzaW5vLmNvbS9yZXNvdXJjZS9zZXJ2ZXIvZ2FtZWF1dGg=&mySubType=re2_ja_on_sc&myOver=True&t=&connectNPS=no&demoWebChat=no


As far as I can see, the ball does not hold up in the pocket without dropping down. But I have seen that happen before on a different model in some B+M casinos where the ball disappears down a hole before the next spin.

My personal opinion is these ones are legit.

cheers

Chile to beat Australia at a general 4/9 looks like a good bet to me.

The Aussies have went downhill in recent times and it's telling that one of their better players hardly makes the bench (never mind a starting place) for Newcastle who would not even be considered a top 6 side in the EPL.

The days of Viduka, Kewell and a few others are long gone.

Chile to win. [smiley]aes/wine.png[/smiley]

Are there better / worse systems?

Here is what somebody posted on another forum.

''There are no good shoes or bad shoes, just
bad systems and methods. I know that sounds
trite, but it's true. It must be the shoe that's
bad, it couldn't be my inadequate method of
playing. Most people develop systems that
play about 40% of the shoe, and when the shoe
isn't playing their methods game, they're
screwed. So instead of improving their game,
they wander around looking for the right
shoes.''

That just about sums things up regarding this question.

40% isn't going to cut the mustard and you are going to be spending either more time at the casino playing through 'bad' shoes and losing money or wasting a lot of time looking for conditions that could change instantly the moment you sit down and you don't know how to handle them.

It's an acquired skill to get that level up to 70% or 80% and it's every players responsibility to learn the mechanics of their chosen game inside out. The benefits are enormous. You can walk in and out and be done in 15-20 spins.

Quote from: Mick on June 10, 2014, 09:19:04 AM
This will at least allow me to keep my original investment and attempt to make profit with the casinos money.

Wise words Mick 

In gambling, the key is to control your losses and capitalize on winning streaks. In other words, to lose as little as possible and win as much as possible.

Simply stated, keep to a low average bet while you are losing and bet more everytime you win. Most people do just the opposite, doubling up when they are losing in a foolish attempt to get their losses back fast, and restricting themselves by becoming conservative when they begin to win. It's the old story of self-preservation. Casinos are so plush and luxurious because people don't always cut their losses but they cut their winnings.

cheers

Quote from: Garnabby on June 09, 2014, 10:23:18 PM

That's it, you have to beat the random game.  Forget about the edges, etc, for the specific casino games.  But, you have to beat the random game in a way in which its "edges" can negate that of the casinos'.

You are right of course Garnabby. Anything else will not last '10 minutes'.

Interestingly enough, I also have looked into working in groups of three for the e/c games and there is a lot of promise there. It makes sense to attack Baccarat with the lower vig. The only thing that would put me off is the time sitting at a Baccarat table not betting. It's no problem sitting out spins at a roulette terminal where nobody is really paying any attention.

Anyway, thanks for a very good post.