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Messages - Bally6354

#196
Just as a quick experiment, I will grab 18 spins at a time and see how things pan out.

First 18.

[attachimg=1]

Now let's see how many times the 13 splits have appeared. The average of course should be 1.

0/00 = 3. (+2)
1/2 = 0. (-1)
5/6 = 1. (0)
7/8 = 1. (0)
11/12 = 2. (+1)
13/14 = 0. (-1)
17/18 = 2. (+1)
19/20 = 0. (-1)
23/24 = 2. (+1)
25/26 = 1. (0)
29/30 = 2. (+1)
31/32 = 0. (-1)
35/36 = 0. (-1)

There are 5 splits that are above expectation.

0/00. (+2)
11/12. (+1)
17/18. (+1)
23/24. (+1)
29/30. (+1)


#197
Thank you Wheelwatcher,

It's ok, I have a copy of that. I will dig it out and have another look at it.
#198
It's interesting what you say Wheelwatcher because another thing that I frequently noticed was how these spikes frequently migrated just a fraction from day to day.

So for example on the Monday.....

[attachimg=1]

....and then go back on the Tuesday.

[attachimg=2]

So the spikes have just slightly moved.

I don't know why this happens because I have not really studied it. But is it something to do with air pressure that changes or maybe along those lines which causes the migration? 

It is certainly interesting.  :thumbsup:





#199
The American 00 wheel is fascinating having compared it to the European single 0 wheel.

[attachimg=1]



What I particularly like about it is how 13 of the split bets are practically the opposite of each other on the wheel layout.

You have the following.....

0/00
1/2
5/6
7/8
11/12
13/14
17/18
19/20
23/24
25/26
29/30
31/32
35/36

Now something I have noticed over many years of play is how quite often you can get very distinct spikes showing hot numbers more or less directly opposite of each other.

So using the splits as shown above on the American 00 wheel may present opportunities to construct a bet where you can keep the outlay low.

Here is a 200 spin example I just created.....

[attachimg=2]

200 spins / 18 = 11.11. So a split should have appeared on average 11 times.

So looking at the above picture, I am looking for any of my splits that have appeared over 11 times.

0/00 = 15 times.
11/12 = 16 times.
23/24 = 12 times.
25/26 = 13 times.

So 4 of the 13 splits have performed above expectation.

I will do some further research on this because it looks promising.

cheers



#200
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 26, 2014, 12:47:52 PM
Hello Number Six,

I was just making the comment that you have more leverage on the dozens/columns as opposed to the E/C's.

Suppose you were playing a 3 step parlay on the E/C's for 7/1. You are risking the profit and original stake on step 2.

With the dozens/columns, a 2 step parlay and you can take back your original stake if you win the first step and at least guarantee a break even situation. But of course the possibility to still come out with a 6 unit total profit. So less of a grind than some E/C bets.

cheers.
#201
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 26, 2014, 10:43:56 AM
Quote from: Number Six on February 26, 2014, 12:52:48 AM

Achieving a mathematical edge is almost impossible, I have never seen anything on any forum that would even come close. In the event, however, we'd be lucky to get 3-5% long term. Even with that, flat betting would not suffice, the risk of ruin is simply still too high.


A bit of creativity may help things.

I like to group things together instead of betting for just single decisions.

So for even chances... BBB, BBR, BRR, BRB, RRR, RRB, RBB, RBR.  A 7/1 payout.


but even better in my opinion are the dozens/columns.

1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3. An 8/1 payout, but with a lot more leverage for all kinds of MM techniques.

So it all becomes less of a grind compared to the up 1, down 1 (going nowhere fast) routine.
#202
General Discussion / Re: Personal Permanence
February 25, 2014, 12:05:04 PM
Quote from: Wheelwatcher on February 25, 2014, 11:30:53 AM
Laurance say that playing the game change the game.

It depends which way you look at it.

How many times have you seen on Dublinbet that the dealer is about to spin the ball and someone throws over some money at the very last second. The dealer now takes the money and gives the player some chips and the spin is delayed.

Do you curse the guy for coming late into the game if your bet loses?  >:(

My opinion is the guy was always coming into the game at that precise moment and so the spin result did not change at all. It was always going to be that way.
#203
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 24, 2014, 09:01:46 PM
The last chart is interesting.

[attachimg=1]

You see these up and downs in all charts.

There is always something that is working and something that isn't working.

I will start a topic in my blog and go into more detail.

cheers





#204
Quote from: Turner on February 16, 2014, 01:31:05 PM
Bally...Im shocked at the interest this idea has gathered considering that I've been playing like this and posting like this for years.
Having said that...the subtlty lies in the application.

It's amazing what a few subtle changes to the framework of an idea can produce.

Take RWD as an example. It's a failure (IMO) in it's rigid format.

Then along comes a player and adds a bit of creativity and things can look decidedly different.

That's the great thing in the age of the internet. Information like this can be freely shared and our knowledge of the game can grow rapidly.

'It's all good' as the saying goes.

cheers
#205
Reading some of these threads reminds me of one of my favourite Edward de Bono books (I am right, you are wrong)

We need to go from using 'rock logic' to 'water logic'.

Rock logic would argue that WF3 was a failure if it could not pass a continuous 1 million spin test.

Water logic (as the name suggests) would look to go with the flow and roll with the punches throughout those 1 million spins.

It's important not to think clever concepts such as WF3 are a grail within themselves. But they can be used skilfully by a player to win more sessions than they lose.

Thank you guys for all the hard work you are doing on this subject. It is much appreciated.  :thumbsup:





#206
Bally's Blog / Re: 'Mongoose' variation for double dozens
February 14, 2014, 08:42:09 PM
So taking the above into account. Let's look at a better way than betting a fixed 2 dozens on every spin.

Take a look at the picture....

[attachimg=1]

The first column shows you cycle of absence.

3,2,2,2,3,3,2 and the 1st dozen is missing.

B,B,A,B,A,A,A,B,B,A,B,B,B and the C column is missing.

So obviously you would keep playing dozens 2 + 3 or columns A + B in the above scenarios.

Now let's look at three factor alternation.

1,3,2,3,2,3,1,2,1 and you can see the dozens keep alternating.

C,B,C,A,B,C,B,A,C,B,C,A,C,B and here the columns are alternating.

So you would keep betting the opposite 2 dozens or columns of whatever last appeared.

Looking out for whatever one of these options is performing the best  would fare better in my opinion than just using a fixed 2 dozens or columns approach.

cheers

#207
Bally's Blog / Re: 'Mongoose' variation for double dozens
February 14, 2014, 08:14:41 PM
Here is where you will get murdered however following a fixed bet selection like I have been doing using the 1st and 2nd dozen.

[attachimg=1]

The 1st dozen has underperformed by 3 standard deviations and who is to say it will end there.

It wiped out 25 units of the 35 units profit that I had gained.

You can use this variance to your advantage when playing dozens and columns if you keep on the right side of what's appearing.

#208
Bally's Blog / Re: 'Mongoose' variation for double dozens
February 14, 2014, 04:31:11 PM
I am doing ad-hoc testing on this one in between other things.....but it seems to have a knack of holding it's own and then some!

[attachimg=1]

just continually playing 1st + 2nd dozen in these tests.

The above results total around 35 units in roughly 220 spins. So it's not a unit-a-spin boom and bust progression. More of a grind.

#209
Online Casinos / Re: The speed of online casinos
February 14, 2014, 03:32:44 PM
One of the best casinos is still Smartlive if you play their live wheel. They give 60 seconds in between spins.

I don't trust Supercasino! They claim to have a live wheel and you see the dealer standing over the wheel....however if you watch the process they go through, you can easily see how the numbers could be generated by an RNG.

cheers
#210
Online Casinos / Re: The speed of online casinos
February 14, 2014, 03:08:41 PM
Quote from: iggiv on February 14, 2014, 02:56:56 PM
the faster they go -- more profit they gain. I guess their goal is to cut off those players who want to bet according to the wheel conditions, and those players have to place sometimes many bets. they prefer those who play outside bets. Those easily lose a lot.

There is a way around it iggiv which is obvious when you think about it! (unfortunately it took me a while  :D )

All decisions are just a random stream.

18
21
5
36
25
36

Take these 6 numbers for example:

You could just take every second number. Then it becomes....

21
36
36

Even chances...(every second decision)

R
R
R

Dozens...(every second decision)

2
3
3

Spreading things out gives you time to analyse all sorts of things. It's great for online casinos (especially some of these slingshot airball types) who like to spin every 20 seconds. Just space things out to whatever your requirements are. It works a charm.