I kind of fall into the camp of cause and effect as opposed to random.

The cause and effect can change because of all sorts of conditions....so how random is it really?

just my 2 pence worth!

Thanks Tomla,

I think there is a lot of scope with this one. It is doing well in my testing using just a fixed 2 dozens betting every spin.

Quick test this morning....

1) L  -2.0

2) WW/LW/LW  +2.5

3) L  -2.0

4) L  -2.0

5) WW/LW/W  +3.25

6) WL  -2.0

7) WW/W/W  +4.0

8} WW/W/W  +4.0

W/L game registry  L W LL W L WW

[attachimg=1]

Here are 20 games hot off the press......

1) WW/W/W   +4.0

2) L  -2.0

3) L  -2.0

4) WL  -2.0

5) L  -2.0

6) L  -2.0

7) WL  -2.0

8} WW/LW/LL  -2.0

9) WW/LW/LW  +2.5

10) L  -2.0

11) WL  -2.0

12) WW/LW/LW  +2.5

13) WW/LW/W  +3.25

14) WW/W/LW  +3.25

15) L  -2.0

16) WW/W/W  +4.0

17) WW/LL  -2.0

18) WL  -2.0

19) WW/W/W  +4.0

20) WW/LW/W  +3.25

W/L game registry = W LLLLLLL W LL WWW L W LL WW

I was just playing 1st and 2nd dozen all the time. It was killing me early alternating between 1st and 3rd.

[attachimg=1]

Really terrible and sad news!


He will certainly not be forgotten by anyone who enjoyed reading his posts and admired his enthusiasm and love for the game.

RIP Ralph   

I  was doing some testing tonight with the mongoose staking plan and decided to tweak it to play double dozens. It went rather well in the limited testing I completed. It is slightly different to the original mongoose.

There are three steps to this tweak....


Step 1 is a parlay attempt.

So I am looking for two consecutive hits on the double dozens. A loss on the first or second bet is a complete loss.

example:

1a) Bet 1 unit on 1st dozen and 1 unit on 2nd dozen. 

if win....

1b) Bet 1.5 units on 1st dozen and 1.5 units on 2nd dozen.

so.....

L is a total loss.

WL is a total loss.

WW is a win and move on to Step 2.



Step 2 is a possible two step progression.

1a) Bet 0.75 units on 1st dozen and 0.75 units on second dozen. (if win, move to step 3)

if I lose the above bet.....

1b) Bet 1.50 units on 1st dozen and 1.50 units on second dozen. (if win, move to step 3)

A loss on 1b is a total loss.


Step 3 is a possible two step progression.

1a) Bet 0.75 units on 1st dozen and 0.75 units on 2nd dozen. (if win...end of game!)

if I lose the above bet....

1b) Bet 1.50 units on 1st dozen and 1.50 units on 2nd dozen. (win or lose = end of game)


Here are all the possible scenarios....

WW/W/W  +4.0 units.

WW/W/LW  +3.25 units.

WW/LW/W  +3.25 units.

WW/LW/LW  +2.50 units.

WW/LL  -2.0 units.

WW/LW/LL  -2.0 units.

WW/W/LL  -1.25 units.

L  -2.0 units.

WL  -2.0 units.



cheers

Hello Sputnik,

I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I will go through my files and see if I can find any interesting ones.

I have experimented a lot with my own single number ideas and I think the downfall of them all (including RWD) is that you are waiting too many spins for a 'fixed' number to appear. Even 9 is too many IMO.

Possibility is not static and is constantly changing. So I think the numbers to bet on must be constantly changing as well otherwise you are losing momentum. This seems to be a constant flaw in single number prediction techniques.

Quote from: Dragoner on February 09, 2014, 08:27:10 AM
About 2 weeks ago (when we heard about this site) there were 38 wins and 6 losses. That was about 3 months time, from end of October.
Since then we have 5 wins and 3 losses. That's about 2 weeks time. This is a realistic result. 38 wins and 6 losses @1.8 average odds isn't.
Is it a coincidence, that the winrate went down just after we heard about the site? 8 games aren't much, so it may be just a small dip. I would be cautious though. I think this is actually the winrate they can keep up with.

Dragoner,

It's a bit like the tipping lines for horseracing. They boast of a 60% strike rate and then the losing run comes as soon as you join! Talk about unlucky! 

I suppose it's ok if you can verify the results over several months from a respected source. However there are still problems including obtaining the advertised price if you want a decent bet and not having your bets restricted or account closed should you get lucky and hit that mythical 60% strike rate.

Talk about a minefield!

cheers

Quote from: Mike on November 21, 2013, 08:19:55 AM



If you're using a martingale, the bet amounts to this progression:


1,1,1,1,2,4,8,16,32,64

Did anyone ever try this?

This thread is certainly one of the more interesting ones on the forum.

It could work well in conjunction with the '2nd's + 3rd's' idea posted here.....

http://betselection.cc/bally's-blog/2nd's-3rd's-(for-e-c's)/

......and possibly a few other filters thrown into the mix as well.

I will attempt 500 placed E.C. bets at dublinbet and see how things pan out.

cheers

It would be a great idea to have some kind of testing apparatus where people claiming to have the HG could at least go someway to proving it.

It would be fun even just for challenges. There are many members who claim to do well on the EC's, so I think it would be cool if they participated as well to see who can achieve the best strike rate.

Bayes, I get what you are saying regarding AP and testing. My view is that even AP is no HG. Conditions are too fleeting.

It reminds me of the old saying that 'the operation was a success, however the patient died''. Sure you can find the odd occasion where conditions are favourable. But that still doesn't guarantee a win in some instances.

Somebody on another site asked why would anybody bother testing anyhow if everything resolves to a 50/50 state. It's a good point but also shows where people go wrong with long term testing in my opinion. Everything will resolve to a 50/50 state. But it's how you manoeuvre yourself around the permanence which can help you to achieve better than 50%.

It's all interesting stuff for sure.

What I can't understand is why Advantage Players would write books or articles on the subject and post it all over the internet.

Let me give an example......

I was playing about a month ago in a land based casino and using a variation of XXXV's WF numbers.

Now I got lucky and hit 2/3 winners very quickly just playing one chip per spin.

Within the next 5/10 minutes....I had the dealer pick up my pen which was not one of the regular ones provided by the casino. He was examining it (probably looking for the hidden computer  )
Then after a dealer change, I had the pleasure of two managers coming over to the table and watching me.

Now guess what unit stake I was playing.........£1   LoL.

Yet they took it upon themselves to try and intimidate me. Anybody would think I was trying to steal the family silver!! I was only after £50-£100.

So it begs the question how are people winning tens of thousands if you are likely to attract heat playing for £1 chips if you are not scattering your chips everywhere.

I don't really buy into any of it and it's my opinion that any AP technique that is widely talked about is also pretty much redundant. Time would be better spent finding the one in a thousand casinos where you may still be able to pull something off instead of running websites talking about all this stuff.

....and that brings me to this.

Myself and a good friend of mine are using what probably could be described as an AP technique against one of the major bookmakers in the UK. We have been doing it for the last 2-3 months. All I will say is that it's a glitch in the system and I will reveal it when they fix the glitch. (Of course by that time the game will be up. But I would cut my own throat by revealing it now and the only people who would gain would be the bookmakers in question)

What's funny is going around all the different bookmakers getting paid out and you can see there is something inside the cashiers head which is saying ''hang on a minute, there is something not right here'' BUT.....they are not paid to think and just pay out with a smile (well most of them anyhow)

And there is the whole point and it does remind me of the 'black swan' because anything is possible if you have imagination and look for opportunities.

I hope no one takes this post as just a bit of bragging on my part. It's not intended as that. I am trying to convey that you should be very careful of 'Greeks bearing gifts'. The last thing any AP player would do is reveal anything that could cut into their bottom line. You better believe it!!

cheers

Quote from: Bayes on January 31, 2014, 06:52:19 PM

There are many casinos on their blacklist, including some big names like paddy power, betfred, and bet365.

That's because they still use the Spielo G2 software. This company are seriously rogue.

They used to be known as G-Tech and ran all the UK national lottery terminals as well as the scratch cards.

Camelot nearly lost their licence because of them. They were hiding a software glitch that distorted payouts to the winners for ages.

Information is slowly coming out now about the online industry with regards to RNG software and it's pretty shocking.

Here is an example....

http://apheat.net/2014/01/02/crooks-in-the-online-casino-industry/

The AP's are already on the case experimenting how to get in for free!

This one went slightly wrong! 

[attachimg=1]

''If you are ever to have even a remote chance of walking away a winner more than occasionally, you must practice what professionals call ''money management''.

Always try to get the strength out of your money.

The objectives of the philosophy are rather simple and to the point. Objective Number One, is as I've said, to control your losses while you are losing so that you have a chance to last out your unlucky drift and take advantage of a subsequent win pattern.

Objective Number Two: To win more than the amount of money you start gambling with, possibly many times more, if you are winning-and to break even or stay ahead if you lose more decisions than you win on a given night.

Sounds acceptable, doesn't it? And all you have to do to reach these two goals is:

1) Stick to a low average bet when you are losing, and....

2) Increase your wagers as soon as a winning trend is indicated.

Every professional I have ever known has followed these principles strictly. Yet few amateur or casual gamblers do. Why, I'll never know. People read up on, investigate, learn about and try to apply professional principles to everything they do with the exception of gambling, in gambling, amateurs tend to remain amateurs, though they obviously don't have to.''

one final extract to follow.... (I will do that tomorrow evening. It's the best one explaining his approach to baccarat in more detail)

''If you really want to know the truth, there are no ''secrets'' about professional gambling. They are however the 'facts of life' that many participants don't know or never spend the time to discover.

When it comes to gambling the way professionals do, there are only three basic ingredients: Knowledge, acquired skill and money management. Oh, there are a lot of little things to learn, things that time and experience will tell you. Most of these important secondary gambling adages are no more than common sense.

For example, gamble when you are well rested, and when nothing negative can cloud your mind and affect your perception, analysis and decision making. I don't think anyone should gamble who is afraid of losing. It's obvious that when your confidence is shaky your performance will be bad.

To gamble, you don't have to begin with a lot of money, but you certainly need some nerve and some courage. Because effective gambling, like accomplished skiing, sometimes requires you to go against some very basic instincts.

In gambling, the key is to control your losses and capitalize on winning streak. In other words, to lose as little as possible and win as much as possible. There are ways to accomplish this. Every professional knows these principles.

Simply stated, they consist of (1) Keeping to low average bet while you are losing and (2) doubling up almost everytime you win. Most people do just the opposite, doubling up when they are losing in a foolish attempt to get there losses back fast, and restricting themselves by becoming conservative when they begin to win. It's the old story of self-preservation. They lose and they think they must get back to a break-even point as quickly as possible. So they double up before coming into a win pattern, and what happens?

If a man has lost three or four $10 bets in a row and then begins doubling up on each of five subsequent losing bets, he will blow a total of $620 trying to get back $30 or $40. Most amateur or occasional gamblers will quit at this point, or well before it because they did not follow or were unaware of the professional principle that applies to losing streaks, or patterns.

A professional gambler rides his luck when he is winning. But you'll never see a professional bet the same amount consistently when he's winning-unless it's the house limit.''

more to follow.....

''If there is one thing I have learned about gambling, it's to recognize and respect streaks. This is true, incidentally, in all casino games.

If, for example, the cards favour the player for three consecutive decisions, then your next bet should either be player or you shouldn't bet at all! If you lose, you lose only one wager. If you bet against the trend, you can be suckered into betting and betting and betting. I have seen more fortunes lost by people who became emotionally committed to one position that went against the trend than through any other folly in gaming!

Don't buck a trend. Either swing over or don't wager. I consider three or more decisions in one direction enough to be considered a trend.''


''I have developed a certain gambling philosophy over the years. One of the basics of that philosophy is to take advantage of those times when I have a winning pattern going for me. And one of the ways I do that, take advantage of the good luck, is to keep playing.
The majority of people come into a casino and when they get lucky they quit to soon. They start out with a couple of hundred dollars, win $500 and walk out with the feeling that they have scored a tremendous victory over the casino. Those same people will come back time after time and drop $50, $100, $200 each visit, and without realizing it they still aren't ahead when they do get lucky. Because they quit playing too soon. Vegas casinos are so plush and luxurious because people don't always cut their losses but they cut their winnings!

It's easy to understand. Everybody is influenced by that old saying ''quit while you're ahead'' but they don't realize that the saying has a catch when it is applied to gambling. It's certainly a good idea to quit while you're ahead, but shouldn't you figure out what ''ahead'' really means in your case? You might be ahead for the evening, but are you ahead or even close to it as far as the whole year is concerned? and are you winning as much as you ought to be?

Most people, unfortunately, bet either the same way whether they're winning or losing, or they bet just the opposite of the way a professional gambler will. By that I mean they bet too much on each decision when they are in a losing pattern, and they bet too little when they're winning. They just don't take advantage of winning patterns that come their way.

Of course you never know when a pattern is going to change. You may be winning handsomely and then it turns around into a losing streak. But why walk away from the table until you have had some sufficient evidence that decisions are not going your way, that your win pattern has ended.

It takes nerves to play up your winnings, but think about it. What are you gambling for? If it's to win some money, why not win as much as you can? Pressing your bets when winning is the hallmark of every professional I have ever known. The casino need have no fear of the person who wins and continues his conservative wagering. The dangerous player is the one who presses (raises his bets) when he is winning.
In Vegas they have an expression about some high rollers that goes like this: ''You've got to watch him. He presses when he is winning and if you're not careful, he'll write you a new address!''

Most people will say ''what if you don't win on the third or fourth try?'' Well that's always possible. So you lose what? Only winnings, not your original bankroll. And isn't it worth risking money you've just won from a casino when you have the chance to win ten to twelve times as much betting the professional way?''

more to follow...... I have to type this out..