Finally made it to 150 games!

+1358 units.

Now I have to go through it all and pick the bones out of it. But I reckon it will be worth it.

111 winning games

4 break even games

35 losing games

So winning 3/4 games is ok as far as it goes.

Will be back when I have some info.

cheers

I think Mr J (Ken) has pretty much got this hot numbers malarkey worked out!

No more than 4 numbers looks good to me. But I find I hardly get past 2/3 with my stop loss procedures. The only slight difference in my approach would be to reset the whole thing once you get to a certain point. The hot numbers should be exactly that (hot). Having to up the ante just means the tide is slowly turning. It is looking like either the 25th spin in the cycle or a loss of 75 units is the place where you need to be taking the loss on the chin and just move on to the next game.

Smoczoor, I will try and stay with a 1 chip bet for as long as I can. Going up to 2 is ok. I am finding rising to 3 is just not working out. It is funny in a way because you would think it's safer. However the profitability seems to dissapear once hit this level.

Anyway, I am going to do some more testing because I think the hot numbers may be the way to go as opposed to sleepers.

I am still doing some research on Hot Numbers.

Have a look at this picture.

[attach=1]

So I am playing for 1 or 2 hot numbers using a mild progression and only play for a cycle of 37 spins.

The times are the interesting part.

Have a look at any game over 10 minutes.

10m49s)  0.01
11m2s)  0.21
17m52s)  -0.74
20m44s)  -0.78
11m1s)  0.07
10m21s)  0.32
14m8s)  0.00

So that's 7 games for a total loss -0.91

The other 15 games were all under 10 minutes and produced a total of +495 units.

So it strikes me that it's a waste of time chasing the hot numbers later on in the 37 spin cycle going on these stats.

Quote from: Number Six on August 23, 2013, 06:14:20 PM
Firstly, though, if you have to wait 200 spins for a win, well there seems to be something suspect with that. Why base the system around winning on an event that you have to stand around all day waiting for?

The best way IMO would be to have a handful of triggers for every spin. That does not mean you are going to bet on every spin.
However you are ready to jump in at any time. Small windows of opportunity will present themself somewhere down the line. I think this is one of the reasons I prefer just to play a single number or a split or two. I just want to dip my toe in the water and try and get a quick win or two which will give me a profit. You can have quite a few attempts at this when playing so few numbers. Playing an E/C bet and losing that first bet means a win on the next attempt can only result in breaking even if you are flat betting.

It is my belief that if you can keep the variance low for an E/C bet or a sixline for example...then you should be able to achieve the same eventually for the other bets like streets / splits etc... It is surely just a natural progression if you are onto something. So then I would be asking why would anybody want to put more of their money in action if they did not really need to. It reminds me of the saying 'it's not what you win, it's what you don't lose'.

But anyway, we all have our own ways of playing and it's all good as long as we are getting some enjoyment out of it!

Quote from: Number Six on August 23, 2013, 01:25:58 AM
I wondered because you had mentioned playing in cycles of 37 spins. Though I may have some ideas that could help you. Not entirely related to law of the third, but certainly for identifying possible repeaters and "hot" numbers.

Hello Number Six, any information on hot numbers would be much appreciated. I use the 37 spin cycles when I visit the casinos. I find it keeps my discipline going and I can move around a bit.

There are some good points in here for sure!

Quote from: Mr J on August 23, 2013, 05:43:48 AM


B) Your time!! In terms of RNG, I could careless, I'm talking about an actual casino. When betting 1-2 numbers, you must have the TIME to bounce back when down and that's NOT counting, we haven't even discussed unit sizes for that ONE number.


Ken

Totally agree. My small test yesterday comprised of around 400 spins. It took about 3 hours on betvoyager. That would have taken 8-9 hours in some of the casinos where I play at.

Quote from: Number Six on August 23, 2013, 01:07:40 AM

There's no maths that says you can't play a bet selection in a regular state of low variance. And that applies to all payouts.

Well I think this is where we will have our best shot. So it's all about finding an optimal way to achieve it.

 The first thing to do is find the sleeping dozen and column.

29 = 3B

17 = 2B

27 = 3C  (1A) This is the sleeping dozen + column.

So now I will wait and see what happens...

8 = 1B  (2A)

The dozen changed and the column stayed the same. So I am going to look for the A column to remain sleeping. I am also going to look for that dozen to change again. This can only happen if dozen 2 appears on the next spin. So I am looking for either 2B or 2C.

The 2B and 2C can be covered with 4 chips on the splits 14/17, 20/23 and 15/18, 21/24.

Next number out...

18 2C  (3A) This is the sleeping dozen + column.

That was a win. You can see that column A remained sleeping and the dozen 2 appeared.

Now I am going to bet for column A to remain sleeping and look for the dozen 3 to appear.

My splits this time are 26/29, 32/35 and 27/30, 33/36.

Next number out...

27 3C  (1A)

Another win because column A slept and the dozen 3 appeared.


Here is the full list for the numbers in the picture.

29 (3B)
17 (2B)
27 (3C)  (1A)
08 (1B)  (2A)
18 (2C)  (3A) WON +14.
27 (3C)  (1A) WON +14.
19 (2A)  (1B) LOST -4.
00  LOST -4.
23 (2B)  (1C) WON +14.
26 (3B)  (1C) LOST -4.
33 (3C)  (1A) WON +14.
17 (2B)  (1A) LOST -4.
35 (3B)  (1A) LOST -4.
28 (3A)  (1C) WON +14.
18 (2C)  (1B) WON +14.

You can see how the column A was sleeping to begin with and then it changed to dozen 1.
The other side was changing regularly enough to give 6 wins vs 5 losses for a 64 unit gain.
 

Here is a nice example to show you regarding the above post.

[attachimg=1]

Quote from: Number Six on August 22, 2013, 02:18:16 PM
Nicely done. Though strictly speaking all bets offer the same EV, but straight-up does offer the chance of bagging the best payout in the game.

Well that's my thinking behind it Number Six. I have an old roulette book where the author showed a table comparing some players who just stuck to betting one number as opposed to other players who were betting E/C's. The only player left standing after thousands and thousands of spins was the single number player. After years of looking at the law of the third, I have given up on it. It kind of makes me think of fools gold. You think there is something there and keep digging to no avail.But hey, I would love to be proved wrong.

Quote from: Mr J on August 22, 2013, 02:26:02 PM
I said it how many times? Many of you guys play too many numbers. Playing 1 number is fine but its like watching paint dry, even worse if the spins are slow.

Ken

It can be torture in a casino. Especially when you get a new dealer who is still learning the ropes. 4 numbers would be my max. I would play them as 2 splits like I mentioned in the dozens and columns thread on this blog. I would just whittle it down further to 1 number and pick the hottest one if I am looking to play just the one.

As regards to if it makes any difference or not!  From experience, I can safely say there are times when you can be betting 2/3 of the wheels numbers and hardly get a hit. I don't mind losing a chip each spin if my luck is really out. I should still have some bankroll left if my luck takes a turn for the better.

I am pretty convinced that playing just one or two numbers is the best way to go!

I played on betvoyager this morning for a few hours just to see how long it would take me to reach 100 units profit.

The way I did it was to play in cycles. I would quit on a losing cycle of 37 spins or quit on a winner before 37 spins.

Then I just logged back on and started again.

[attachimg=1]

Things did not start great! I was down around 115 units at one stage. However I did end up 102 units ahead after 21 games. This was all done flat betting.

Here is a running count..

-37 (-37)
+28 (-9)
-37 (-46)
+18 (-28)
+2 (-26)
-37 (-63)
-31 (-94) I got cut off early here.
+9 (-85)
+35 (-50)
+23 (-27)
+18 (-9)
-37 (-46)
+12 (-34)
+33 (-1)
+23 (+22)
+25 (+47)
-37 (+10)
+4 (+14)
+29 (+43)
+34 (+77)
+25 (+102)

What has got me thinking is how to take advantage of the times when variance is favourable. There are some periods in those 21 games when a few early hits are coming back to back.

I don't think it makes sense to use a negative progression betting one number. But I also don't think it would make sense to use some kind of positive progression for a full 37 spin cycle.

So I was thinking of something like a front loaded progression when things are going well.

There used to be few guys who suggested playing a kind of front loaded progression on the old GG forum. I had a look and the info is pretty sparse. But it's something to think about.

Don't discount playing just a number a two. There was a 200 unit turnaround in the games above in just a few hundred spins.

cheers

It was a good start to the season.

This season is going to be interesting with three new managers at the clubs most likely to lift the premier league trophy.

The people who are writing Man U off already may end up with egg on their face come next May.

Anyway, I will try and find one selection for each weekend which I think represents a bit of value.

cheers 

Quote from: Priyanka on August 20, 2013, 08:44:24 PM
Bally,

It is primarily for RNG spins. I haven't tested on live spins yet.

Thanks! I thought that when you mentioned the SHA256. Oh well, I should have double checked before jumping the gun.

I will do some tests on RNG and see what happens.

cheers

Hello Priyanka,

Is this designed for Betvoyager or can you use it on live spins as well.

I did a few tests including the one below. None of the tests resulted in a profit.

L L L L L L L L L L L L

L L L L L L L L L W L L

L L L L L L L L L L L L

L L L L L L L L L L L W

L L L L L L L L L L L L

L L L L L L L L L L L L

Obviously just short samples because of the limit to 84 spins. I will do some more tests anyhow and see how it goes.

[attachimg=1]

cheers

I was just thinking about the Kelly criterion in relation to roulette and does it not just show what a lethal combination progressions and the house edge really are. The Risk of ruin getting larger with every losing step.

It's probably not something a lot of us give any thought to when designing methods of play. But just a basic understanding of some of this stuff does make you look at things from a different perspective.

cheers

This calculator is ok.

But remember.......

Underbetting is far preferred to overbetting. So perhaps use a 1/2 Kelly and see how the variance goes.

There is some good info at the bottom of the calculator.