Here is a nice example to show you regarding the above post.

[attachimg=1]

Quote from: Number Six on August 22, 2013, 02:18:16 PM
Nicely done. Though strictly speaking all bets offer the same EV, but straight-up does offer the chance of bagging the best payout in the game.

Well that's my thinking behind it Number Six. I have an old roulette book where the author showed a table comparing some players who just stuck to betting one number as opposed to other players who were betting E/C's. The only player left standing after thousands and thousands of spins was the single number player. After years of looking at the law of the third, I have given up on it. It kind of makes me think of fools gold. You think there is something there and keep digging to no avail.But hey, I would love to be proved wrong.

Quote from: Mr J on August 22, 2013, 02:26:02 PM
I said it how many times? Many of you guys play too many numbers. Playing 1 number is fine but its like watching paint dry, even worse if the spins are slow.

Ken

It can be torture in a casino. Especially when you get a new dealer who is still learning the ropes. 4 numbers would be my max. I would play them as 2 splits like I mentioned in the dozens and columns thread on this blog. I would just whittle it down further to 1 number and pick the hottest one if I am looking to play just the one.

As regards to if it makes any difference or not!  From experience, I can safely say there are times when you can be betting 2/3 of the wheels numbers and hardly get a hit. I don't mind losing a chip each spin if my luck is really out. I should still have some bankroll left if my luck takes a turn for the better.

I am pretty convinced that playing just one or two numbers is the best way to go!

I played on betvoyager this morning for a few hours just to see how long it would take me to reach 100 units profit.

The way I did it was to play in cycles. I would quit on a losing cycle of 37 spins or quit on a winner before 37 spins.

Then I just logged back on and started again.

[attachimg=1]

Things did not start great! I was down around 115 units at one stage. However I did end up 102 units ahead after 21 games. This was all done flat betting.

Here is a running count..

-37 (-37)
+28 (-9)
-37 (-46)
+18 (-28)
+2 (-26)
-37 (-63)
-31 (-94) I got cut off early here.
+9 (-85)
+35 (-50)
+23 (-27)
+18 (-9)
-37 (-46)
+12 (-34)
+33 (-1)
+23 (+22)
+25 (+47)
-37 (+10)
+4 (+14)
+29 (+43)
+34 (+77)
+25 (+102)

What has got me thinking is how to take advantage of the times when variance is favourable. There are some periods in those 21 games when a few early hits are coming back to back.

I don't think it makes sense to use a negative progression betting one number. But I also don't think it would make sense to use some kind of positive progression for a full 37 spin cycle.

So I was thinking of something like a front loaded progression when things are going well.

There used to be few guys who suggested playing a kind of front loaded progression on the old GG forum. I had a look and the info is pretty sparse. But it's something to think about.

Don't discount playing just a number a two. There was a 200 unit turnaround in the games above in just a few hundred spins.

cheers

It was a good start to the season.

This season is going to be interesting with three new managers at the clubs most likely to lift the premier league trophy.

The people who are writing Man U off already may end up with egg on their face come next May.

Anyway, I will try and find one selection for each weekend which I think represents a bit of value.

cheers 

Quote from: Priyanka on August 20, 2013, 08:44:24 PM
Bally,

It is primarily for RNG spins. I haven't tested on live spins yet.

Thanks! I thought that when you mentioned the SHA256. Oh well, I should have double checked before jumping the gun.

I will do some tests on RNG and see what happens.

cheers

Hello Priyanka,

Is this designed for Betvoyager or can you use it on live spins as well.

I did a few tests including the one below. None of the tests resulted in a profit.

L L L L L L L L L L L L

L L L L L L L L L W L L

L L L L L L L L L L L L

L L L L L L L L L L L W

L L L L L L L L L L L L

L L L L L L L L L L L L

Obviously just short samples because of the limit to 84 spins. I will do some more tests anyhow and see how it goes.

[attachimg=1]

cheers

I was just thinking about the Kelly criterion in relation to roulette and does it not just show what a lethal combination progressions and the house edge really are. The Risk of ruin getting larger with every losing step.

It's probably not something a lot of us give any thought to when designing methods of play. But just a basic understanding of some of this stuff does make you look at things from a different perspective.

cheers

This calculator is ok.

But remember.......

Underbetting is far preferred to overbetting. So perhaps use a 1/2 Kelly and see how the variance goes.

There is some good info at the bottom of the calculator.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

cheers

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 Bristol City 1  [smiley]aes/money.png[/smiley]

Quote from: Gizmotron on August 16, 2013, 02:48:18 PM
if you know how to cobble together winning sessions exploiting these conditions then you have all
the proof there is necessary.

That tickled me! We don't need any fancy terms. We just need to engage the old grey matter.

Priyanka

Wolverhampton Wanderers are playing away to Bristol City this weekend.

The last time these 2 teams met on this ground last season.... Wolves 4  Bristol City 1.

Last weeks results...

Wolves 4   Gillingham 0

Coventry 5  Bristol City 4

Both teams have been recently relegated from the Championship and start this season in League 1.

Wolverhampton Wanderers are the bookmakers favourites to win this division.

They still have many of their high earning players from last season including Doyle and Sako who are definately a cut above League 1 standard.

Wolves are 8/5 to win on Saturday which I think is a generous price. They were 5/4 to win this fixture last year and that was on the back of a bad run. They have started this season well and haved added to their ranks with a decent goalscorer in Griffifths who made an appearance for Scotland last night.

Good luck

Thanks Turner 

I have found it and will study it.  ''Inconspicuous tracking''

The Leader Of The Pack

I have done some research lately on hot numbers looking to see if I could find an angle of attack.

There are a few things that stand out.

One of them is that there appears to be a natural leader on a lot of occasions.

As an example:

18
27
18

So you can see that the 18 has already made a double appearance.

15
35
29
27

Now the 27 has caught up with the 18 and they have both appeared twice.

What I mean by the natural leader is that the 18 which was the first number to appear twice will now go on and make a third appearance to go into the lead again. This example is an easy one just to explain the basic idea.

What I did was open up a new cycle after the old one had completed 37 spins. Then I kept adding to the original and new cycle.

So you would have 3 different sets after 111 spins.

One with 111 spins.

One with 74 spins.

One with 37 spins.

It is very hard to find a cycle where a number completely runs away with things. But there does seem quite often a leader of the pack which keeps putting it's nose in front once it is challenged.

My advice would be to pick a sport where you consider yourself to be more knowledgeable than the majority and work from there.

Then have patience and look for value.

I would say I have a good knowledge of cricket compared to most people. William Hill were offering 1/1 on England winning the Ashes (up to a £20 bet)  Now I considered that the odds of 1/1 were generous taking everything into consideration.

I already had my 'bookies bus route' mapped out from previous forays and managed to get a bit on.

There is so much competition nowadays what with the online market and such... you can get value in your chosen sport if you are patient and make money.

Ok, so it's a shameless plug of a winning bet I had! [smiley]aes/blush.png[/smiley] But there is a lesson in it.