I was just thinking about the Kelly criterion in relation to roulette and does it not just show what a lethal combination progressions and the house edge really are. The Risk of ruin getting larger with every losing step.

It's probably not something a lot of us give any thought to when designing methods of play. But just a basic understanding of some of this stuff does make you look at things from a different perspective.

cheers

This calculator is ok.

But remember.......

Underbetting is far preferred to overbetting. So perhaps use a 1/2 Kelly and see how the variance goes.

There is some good info at the bottom of the calculator.

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

cheers

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 Bristol City 1  [smiley]aes/money.png[/smiley]

Quote from: Gizmotron on August 16, 2013, 02:48:18 PM
if you know how to cobble together winning sessions exploiting these conditions then you have all
the proof there is necessary.

That tickled me! We don't need any fancy terms. We just need to engage the old grey matter.

Priyanka

Wolverhampton Wanderers are playing away to Bristol City this weekend.

The last time these 2 teams met on this ground last season.... Wolves 4  Bristol City 1.

Last weeks results...

Wolves 4   Gillingham 0

Coventry 5  Bristol City 4

Both teams have been recently relegated from the Championship and start this season in League 1.

Wolverhampton Wanderers are the bookmakers favourites to win this division.

They still have many of their high earning players from last season including Doyle and Sako who are definately a cut above League 1 standard.

Wolves are 8/5 to win on Saturday which I think is a generous price. They were 5/4 to win this fixture last year and that was on the back of a bad run. They have started this season well and haved added to their ranks with a decent goalscorer in Griffifths who made an appearance for Scotland last night.

Good luck

Thanks Turner 

I have found it and will study it.  ''Inconspicuous tracking''

The Leader Of The Pack

I have done some research lately on hot numbers looking to see if I could find an angle of attack.

There are a few things that stand out.

One of them is that there appears to be a natural leader on a lot of occasions.

As an example:

18
27
18

So you can see that the 18 has already made a double appearance.

15
35
29
27

Now the 27 has caught up with the 18 and they have both appeared twice.

What I mean by the natural leader is that the 18 which was the first number to appear twice will now go on and make a third appearance to go into the lead again. This example is an easy one just to explain the basic idea.

What I did was open up a new cycle after the old one had completed 37 spins. Then I kept adding to the original and new cycle.

So you would have 3 different sets after 111 spins.

One with 111 spins.

One with 74 spins.

One with 37 spins.

It is very hard to find a cycle where a number completely runs away with things. But there does seem quite often a leader of the pack which keeps putting it's nose in front once it is challenged.

My advice would be to pick a sport where you consider yourself to be more knowledgeable than the majority and work from there.

Then have patience and look for value.

I would say I have a good knowledge of cricket compared to most people. William Hill were offering 1/1 on England winning the Ashes (up to a £20 bet)  Now I considered that the odds of 1/1 were generous taking everything into consideration.

I already had my 'bookies bus route' mapped out from previous forays and managed to get a bit on.

There is so much competition nowadays what with the online market and such... you can get value in your chosen sport if you are patient and make money.

Ok, so it's a shameless plug of a winning bet I had! [smiley]aes/blush.png[/smiley] But there is a lesson in it.

Quote from: Priyanka on August 14, 2013, 12:34:48 PM
I am not debating either of these points. I greatly admire anyone who spends time in studying and understanding the game and believe there is a lot to learn from them. The thing am getting at is someone need not give things on a plate, but atleast let us know the strategy and thought process behind what they do (just like Superman explained his money management) it will benefit eager people like who is trying to learn and understand the game. If it cannot be explained, then it cannot be.
My whole point was around botting stuff. What I was getting to was if it is situation awareness and making decisions based on what you see and what you have experienced, it can be taught to a machine and such artificial intelligence can be coded. It is not that its an easy job, but being in the robotics industry, I know exactly how its done. But if its purely based on human instincts, then it cannot be.

Let me take the crude example into account. The key word is "Factor into account". The moment that comes in, it becomes more of a decision making rather than a voodoo capability. Hope you are seeing where am getting to.

I did my training at Ensemble studios before graduating and starting work as a R&D consultant with Fanuc and Universal robotics. During the training, I experienced how we build AI capabilities into the RTS game Age of empires. It is simply an  astonishing subject to look at when it comes to situational awareness and taking 1000s of factors into consideration before taking the next decision which lasts only for milliseconds. And it also has inbuilt learning capabilities based on what it experiences and based on 100s of decisions happened in the past.

It is more like building a Deep blue. But remember, Deep blue was indeed beaten by Kasparov.

Thank you for a very interesting reply Priyanka.

I was always kind of undecided if more complex strategies could be botted. You have certainly convinced me that it can be done. It also makes you wonder what kind of research the casino industry has done involving bots because of the resources they have and the time to do it in.

Number Six

There is a book called Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone which goes into great depth on the Kelly criterion.

It is a good book because it charts the beginnings of the formula and the people who used it.

Copies are easily available on Amazon for anyone interested.

cheers.

Instinct kind of downplays it a bit IMO. Players like Superman have spent a lot of time studying the game and doing the groundwork. I liken it more as a kind of situational awareness. A players results over time would likely show losses if they were just using pure instinct.

A player could walk up to a table with an instinct that number 23 was about to appear. Unbeknown to the player could be the fact that the 23 area is part of a cold section on the wheel due to a temporary bias. Another player at the table may have taken this factor into account and have an instinct that number 26 is going to come up on the other side of the wheel. Ask yourself who is more likely to profit in the longer term. I suppose this is a more extreme example using a physical approach, however it does illustrate a point.

You don't win longterm using voodoo or guesswork.

The scatter on those reels makes it unplayable IMO. [smiley]aes/tongue.png[/smiley]



P.S. For anyone interested. There is a guy over on the Wizard of Vegas Forum who has started posting recently called 'mickeycrimm'
His stories are fascinating and he claims to be an AP player at slots who has lived in the Vegas area for years. I am pretty certain these are not the kind of slots you will find in the U.K. or Oz. These are like Video Poker etc.. But it is great reading and you never know what you might pick up from the guy.

cheers

[attachimg=1]

Quote from: Bayes on August 05, 2013, 07:14:18 PM

Think about the so called "law of the third" which says that after 37 spins there will be 12-13 numbers which haven't hit. That means that every 37 spins there is a group of numbers equivalent to a dozen or column (at least) which are still sleeping, but systems based around betting on those sleepers to wake up haven't been very successful.

That's true Bayes. I have been there and bought the T-shirt! (several of them)

Roy Ward Dickson might have something where he waits for one of these sleepers to appear and then starts attacking them in the hope that they will compensate from their absence with a short burst of wins. (I will start a separate topic with some of his ideas)

cheers