'when do you have an advantage?'

When the casino tell you to go and play somewhere else! [smiley]aes/tongue.png[/smiley]

It's a seriously hard question to answer because of all the variables involved. It would be very noble to be able to win outright flat betting. However, I think this just puts a straightjacket on a player. Trying to work out any kind of advantage using progressions would just muddy the waters even further.

I don't think 1k or even 5k worth of results is going to give us an answer. There will be a small percent of players who come out ahead in their lifetime maybe only playing 5k worth of spins. It does not mean they had any kind of advantage other than good luck.

I don't think these tests like the Van Keelen test or Dr Wilson's acid test conclusively proof anything one way or another.


This may sound silly and not very scientific, However, I get a gut feeling fairly quickly if something is worth investigating further or not. I could be playing something and winning with it, however my gut instinct will tell me quickly if it's a disaster waiting to happen. I have paid the price a few times for not listening to my instinct. So who is to say instinct is not as valuable to us in gambling compared to percentages and what not.

Sorry Big EZ that I couldn't really specifically answer any of your questions. But I think that's in part because they are kind of unanswerable if you are playing strategies as opposed to taking a physical approach.

Let's hope someone else comes along and can help out.

Quote from: Let Me Win on July 23, 2013, 11:27:54 AM

In fact the reason he is called the 'Tip Thief' is because he steals all the tips off the other expensive services on the market.

One of the downsides to that is the price becomes prohibitive once it has passed through all the hands.

Henry Rix was a good tipster at finding longshots in valuable races. But the 20/1 shot becomes an 8/1 shot before the man on the street gets it.

It would not surprise me if you could make a profit laying some of the tipsters selections once they actually become under the true odds.

One thing I noticed several years ago is that William Hill's were particularly savage at shortening some of Rix's longshots by more than half. Most of them invariably went back to nearer the opening odds once the opening show appeared. You could have layed at the gambled on price and then backed at a better price to at least guarantee your money back if the horse did not win on most occasions.

There is always a few alternative angles which might give you some scope instead of betting selections blind when the value has already gone.

Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on July 23, 2013, 06:01:07 AM
It also helps to look at the 1st or 3rd columns to play for a 00 wheel.  Those numbers are wheel-neighbor friendly.

Thanks Proof

I love a challenge and so I am going to try and come up with something different for the 00 wheel.

It is a fascinating layout on the disc.

I looked further into the available splits....

So I am going to the left of the 00 and to the right of the 0 taking 2 numbers at a time and putting them in numerical order.

1,13
2,14  (splits 1/2 + 13/14)

24,36
23,35 (splits 23/24 + 35/36)

3,15
4,16 (can't use these as splits)

22,34
21,33 (can't use these as splits)

5,17
6,18 (splits 5/6 + 17/18)

20,32
19,31 (splits 19/20 + 31,32)

7,11
8,12 (splits 7/8 + 11/12)

26,30
25,29 (splits 25/26 + 29/30)

9,28
10,27 (can't use these as splits)

What's also interesting looking at these groups of 4 numbers is how most of them are grouped in a kind of 'finales' order.

1,2,13,14 = 1,2,3,4

23,24,25,26 = 3,4,5,6

3,4,15,16 = 3,4,5,6

21,22,33,34 = 1,2,3,4

5,6,17,18 = 5,6,7,8

19,20,31,32 = 9,0,1,2

7,8,11,12 (this one does not work)

25,26,29,30 (this one does not work)

9,10,27,28 = 7,8,9,0

So plenty there to have a look at. There is certainly more order in the 00 wheel than the single 0 disc arrangement IMO.

I believe 'Number Six' dropped a few clues in his post over on VLS without going into the specifics of it all.

He wrote........

''I recently came across an article by a mathematician, which I mentioned in another thread, who said the layout of the American wheel is so inferior to the Euro one that it can be cracked, like your friend Bob has claimed. I mean, Pascal, who is the father of the Euro wheel, was a genius - not even he could beat his own game! The American wheel, though, was designed to accommodate the 00 and increase the house edge. Mathematically not much thought went into the distribution of the numbers around the disc. I believe there are ways to engineer bets based on the analysis of the disc layout.''


I have never really paid much attention to the 00 wheel because casinos only use the single 0 here in the UK and over in Oz. (however the Crown in Melbourne have a unique feature on their low limit tables. It's a double zero added on to the single zero wheel)

So I had a good look at the 00 wheel tonight and I can see what Number Six is getting at.

Going to the left of the 00 shows 1 and 13.

Going to the right of the 0 shows 2 and 14.

Next to the 1 and 13 are 36 and 24.

Next to the 2 and 14 are 35 and 23.

Can anyone spot the pattern?

You have 4 splits there...

1/2, 13/14, 23/24 and 35/36.

This pattern runs all the way around the disc.

There is definately scope for a good strategy using the 00 wheel.

Quote from: VLS on July 22, 2013, 12:10:01 PM

TIMING too 

Timing is the most important aspect for me when it comes to playing roulette.

Just next to that is awareness.

It is very easy to get caught up in the game. So the awareness needs to be 100% spot on for a player to be able to use good timing.

We are all big kids at heart. [smiley]afb/lol.gif[/smiley]

part 7.

part 6.

Part 5.

Time for a break. [smiley]aes/headphones.png[/smiley]

part 4. [smiley]aes/coffee.png[/smiley]

part 3 and time for lunch. [smiley]aes/eat.png[/smiley]

Quote from: Chrisbis on July 18, 2013, 08:28:03 AM
Its called "covering your a s s"..............[smiley]aes/money.png[/smiley]

lol.

They have obviously learned their lesson the hard way.

A court ruling forced them to pay out a large sum previously because the winning players were deemed not to have tampered with the equipment even though they had an edge ('cheated' in Ritz parlance).

I was looking at their new flashy website the other day and found something interesting. (By the way, it is a lovely site with some really good pictures)

What I found interesting was in the 'rules of membership'

Here we go....

12. The Company reserves the right not to pay any gaming debt in circumstances where it knows or reasonably suspects that a member has won money by way of cheating. For the purpose of this rule 'cheating' includes any conduct which seeks to remove or reduce the element of chance and or seeks to give any advantage to the player. The Company shall have absolute discretion in deciding whether any activity amounts to cheating and also as to whether any such activity has taken place.

13. Any decision of the Company under these rules shall be conclusive and binding. It is a term and condition of membership that no legal proceedings shall be instituted by any member to challenge the ruling of the Company.


Talk about having your cake and eating it.

I think you are right AMK. Betting aggressively can have its place.

My belief is that you are only limited by how you interpretate the data which is in front of you. A horror session to one player could possibly be another players biggest ever win. A dynamic game such as roulette certainly requires having more than just one bet selection.  It requires an arsenal of interchangeable ways of playing. It's not just semantics either. We need to be careful not to limit what is achievable by having fixed ideas.