I have an idea! 

Why don't 10 of us stick in 100 euros.

This would give us 10,000 units playing 0.10 cent units.

The challenge would be to get through 1 million spins!

Looking at the figures suggests we would end up with a finishing balance of roughly 3,000 euros. This means we have tripled our bank. I would be happy to get back 100% profit on my investment and I don't really care how the rest gets split up.

Think about how far you could go if this was rock solid and you compounded a percentage of your profits over time.


just an idea!

Quote from: monaco on January 16, 2013, 11:15:07 AM

If you do get on a good run, profits can increase nicely - but be ready to drift up & down, seemingly for weeks sometimes.

I tried it recently again on straight-up numbers. It sure is a grinder!

Cheers monaco 

I do get a lot of close wins and this is why I like the Guetting.

I had a look at a few others....

Reverse Labouchere

STAR

surewin

All these do well with close wins but are negative progressions and something in my gut tells me not to touch them.

Even the GR8Player neg progression can get out of hand and that's pretty mild compared to some others.

I did a few experiments and the Guetting wins hands down. I don't mind grinding if I have to.

ok... so I finished reading the book and I can't really see why some call it a classic.

My verdict after reading loads of books over the last few months on MM is that you are better to use some kind of positive progression as opposed to a negative one.

I like the Guetting Progression.

If I had to play a negative one...

Probably the GR8Player progression.

Both of them can be used conservatively and shouldn't give anybody a heart attack if they use common sense.

cheers.

Just be careful with any fixed triggers ignatus.

You can get the same thing showing for days and you think you have hit pay dirt.

Then a few days later it completely vanishes. Best just to go along with whatever is happening at the time.

You have done a great job here delving into all this stuff. I hope all your hard work pays off. 

I don't see where the problem is if it is available for hire and you just pay a percentage from any winnings. I wouldn't imagine anybody would be silly enough to jump in and invest their life savings!

This is a gambling site at the end of the day and some of us like to gamble. I would trust Ophis enough to at least give it a shot. What's to stop anyone playing pennies to start with just to get a feel for it. 10,000 pennies is only 100 bucks!

Anyway, don't knock it before you try it or at least wait to see how a few other members get on with it.

cheers.

Thank you Bayes 

Do you just play this on the dozens JL?

Quote from: JohnLegend on January 14, 2013, 03:44:44 PM
Bally what  I think Bayes meant was you wait for a 3 and bet it doesn't become a 4. A 4 can't become a 5 because its already a 4. Do you see my point?

ok thanks, I understand it but there is a difference between waiting for a 3 to become a 4 or a 4 to become a 5 which is what I interpreted Bayes as saying.

These things are better cleared up before anybody starts using it.

cheers.

Quote from: Bayes on January 14, 2013, 02:47:04 PM
When you have your 2 4's you wait for another 4 and bet that it will become a 5 - ie: bet the other 2 dozens. That's it.

That's where one of us has it wrong!

I think you bet for the third 4 not to appear.

Like so....

05 (1)
32 (3)
23 (2)
28 (3)
05 (1)......gap of 4.......
22 (2)
09 (1).....gap of 2......
34 (3)
12 (1).....gap of 2.......
15 (2)
08 (1).....gap of 2.......
06 (1)....gap of 1........
25 (3)
06 (1).....gap of 2......
03 (1).....gap of 1......
32 (3)
05 (1)......gap of 2.......
33 (3)
05 (1).....gap of 2......
18 (2)
23 (2)
0 (*)
09 (1).....gap of 4.......
05 (1).....gap of 1......
18 (2)
12 (1).....gap of 2.......
14 (2)
15 (2)
18 (2)
07 (1).... gap of 4....... lost here betting the 2nd and 3rd dozen.
07 (1).....gap of 1.......
20 (2)
32 (3)
06 (1)....gap of 3........
14 (2)
21 (2)
29 (3)
29 (3)......won here. **I am assuming we would bet here**
28 (3)  **Bayes is assuming we would bet here**
26 (3)
06 (1)

Hopefully JL can clear it up.

cheers. 

Hello JL

I think I get it!

Is this correct?

16 (2)
35 (3)
10 (1)
22 (2)...3
8 (1)....2
15 (2)...2
31 (3)...5
7 (1)....3
0 (*)
8 (1)....2
4 (1)....1
26 (3)...5
25 (3)...1
22 (2)...8
13 (2)...1
10 (1)...5
1 (1)....1
0 (*)
23 (2)...4
9 (1)....3
23 (2)...2
32 (3)...9
27 (3)...1
33 (3)...1
16 (2)...4 (Does the 2 qualify here?)
22 (2)...1
10 (1)...7
5 (1)....1
28 (3)...5
8 (1)....2 (I bet for the 1st and 3rd dozen here and WON)

cheers 

Quote from: Bayes on January 14, 2013, 11:55:24 AM
A sample of RNG results, each run is 1 million spins -

Total winning games: 16311 units
Total losing games: 20 x 242 = -4840 units
Total Profit = 11471
--------------------------------------------------
Total winning games: 14973 units
Total losing games: 26 x 242 = -6292 units
Total Profit = 8681
--------------------------------------------------
Total winning games: 16248 units
Total losing games: 21 x 242 = -5082 units
Total Profit = 11166
--------------------------------------------------
Total winning games: 15021 units
Total losing games: 25 x 242 = -6050 units
Total Profit = 8971
--------------------------------------------------
Total winning games: 15050 units
Total losing games: 26 x 242 = -6292 units
Total Profit = 8758

This should be fun!


[attachimg=1]


My old mate COLIN would now be saying....

IS THIS REALLY THE ONE! (he liked using caps)

Seriously though........

Those are pretty spectacular results Bayes.

I can also see where JL is coming from when he defends the progression. It looks like a loss is going to come once in a blue moon if those results are indicative of any future performance.

Well done JL 

Quote from: MarignyGrilleau on January 14, 2013, 11:20:23 AM

I am sorry but i am the one in first place @testmystrategy web site.

That's only because I never tested my strategy over there! 



(only joking)

Good luck with it JL and I hope you take the casino to the cleaners.

Money won is always twice as sweet as money earned! 

Quote from: TwisterUK on January 07, 2013, 09:50:46 PM

Where's me Crack 

You need to go  to esoito's 'pipe' dream thread for that twister! [attachimg=1]

Quote from: sqzbox on January 07, 2013, 12:58:44 PM
Well, I was kinda hoping that measurable means that it can be simmed.


But in any case, maybe if I give you an example -


what do you think is most likely going to happen in the 20 spins following a run of 20 reds in a row?


OR


if, after 24 spins you have seen 18 unique numbers what is the likely scenario for the next 14 spins?

I couldn't answer that sqzbox. I operate on a spin by spin basis.

I know we are not talking about AP play here.

However.......

Card Counters use the true count for the next hand.

Roulette Computers predict for the next spin.

I really don't think there is a way anybody could predict with any accuracy what the next 20 spins are going to bring unless you take bias into account!

I would love to be wrong on this however. Maybe this is where players who use some kind of regression to the mean strategy  could help out!

Quote from: sqzbox on January 06, 2013, 10:35:41 PM
Let's talk about advantage play for a moment. I think we all understand what that means. For my purposes here let's limit it to the ecart - that is, exclude anything that relates to the physical nature of the medium such as table or wheel bias.  What sort of advantages do you think we can find if we look into the  results as they unfold?  Gizmo has mentioned patterns and recurrence of past sequences, Bayes mentioned statistics, and JL some other method yet to be disclosed.  Remember - there has to be a REASON why the advantage exists.  Hence it should be measurable.

You would certainly know if your profits keep climbing. There are many tests that you can conduct to get an idea if your winning run is down to some kind of skill or just pure unintelligent luck!

There is a concept in statistics called 'chance of randomness' (COR). This is an exact statistical measurement of how 'lucky' a series of events are.

Doing something that has only a 1 in 30,000 chance of happening purely by luck is considered 'proof' by most experts that skill and not luck was involved.

Something like this is certainly a good starting point.

cheers.