Quote from: sqzbox on January 07, 2013, 12:58:44 PM
Well, I was kinda hoping that measurable means that it can be simmed.


But in any case, maybe if I give you an example -


what do you think is most likely going to happen in the 20 spins following a run of 20 reds in a row?


OR


if, after 24 spins you have seen 18 unique numbers what is the likely scenario for the next 14 spins?

I couldn't answer that sqzbox. I operate on a spin by spin basis.

I know we are not talking about AP play here.

However.......

Card Counters use the true count for the next hand.

Roulette Computers predict for the next spin.

I really don't think there is a way anybody could predict with any accuracy what the next 20 spins are going to bring unless you take bias into account!

I would love to be wrong on this however. Maybe this is where players who use some kind of regression to the mean strategy  could help out!

Quote from: sqzbox on January 06, 2013, 10:35:41 PM
Let's talk about advantage play for a moment. I think we all understand what that means. For my purposes here let's limit it to the ecart - that is, exclude anything that relates to the physical nature of the medium such as table or wheel bias.  What sort of advantages do you think we can find if we look into the  results as they unfold?  Gizmo has mentioned patterns and recurrence of past sequences, Bayes mentioned statistics, and JL some other method yet to be disclosed.  Remember - there has to be a REASON why the advantage exists.  Hence it should be measurable.

You would certainly know if your profits keep climbing. There are many tests that you can conduct to get an idea if your winning run is down to some kind of skill or just pure unintelligent luck!

There is a concept in statistics called 'chance of randomness' (COR). This is an exact statistical measurement of how 'lucky' a series of events are.

Doing something that has only a 1 in 30,000 chance of happening purely by luck is considered 'proof' by most experts that skill and not luck was involved.

Something like this is certainly a good starting point.

cheers.

Quote from: Bayes on January 06, 2013, 12:29:42 PM
Bally, is this something Skakus has posted on rouletteforum.cc? He did a challenge a while ago with some software I provided, and did very well, I'm just wondering if it's the same system.

Hello Bayes

No! That was his E/C method!

This one is called the 'Barrycentric Binomial Benefit method' (I hope he copyrighted that)

He has another called the Texas Sharpshooter as well!

He sure likes to keep busy! 
 
(They are posted on C.C. although I think the E.C. one is a bit of a mystery)

Quote from: Robeenhuut on January 06, 2013, 12:16:29 PM
There is nothing to replicate. Its so easy to blame laziness if somebody does not win with your method. 

It's nice to see the trolls visit here as well! 

Quote from: Ralph on January 06, 2013, 06:45:39 AM

If it possible for many to grasp it, it will be of no use very soon.

This is the truth!

It is my belief that they are probably loads of roulette players around the world winning with strategies that they have developed themself!

Are the casinos worried?

NO!

Why not?

Because they know that the methods are not the sort of thing that 95% of regular players are going to be able to replicate.  Most gamblers are just that....'gamblers'.

Another thing is people like Skakus have told everyone what they do. It's there in black and white. He can't do any more than that. I noticed someone asked him the other day if he could put all the rules in one post. The rules are already in the thread. So this guy is even too lazy to read 11 or 12 pages and study something which Skakus may have spent the best part of a few years in his spare time perfecting. It really does beggar belief.

I am in the 'johno' camp nowadays. It is already out there.The people with the right attitude and determination will find what they are looking for.

My sunday rant is over.  [attachimg=1]

Quote from: esoito on January 05, 2013, 11:22:27 PM
Any more ponderings?

Bit sparse!!  Tempus fugit...

Nothing much to say really!

I am contemplating my next challenge! I like the idea of trying a few different classical progressions with my ideas and see how they hold up. The D'alembert looks like it is tailor made for what I am playing right now. I think I will give that a go on one of the live dealer online casinos just for a bit of fun and to see how long it can last.

I ordered the Frank Barstow book 'Beat The Casino' the other day and I am looking forward to reading it.



Here is something I found on an old gambling site tonight. It might be of use to somebody.


*How many spins are necessary before all the numbers (0-36) to come in?

*How many spins necessary before all the streets (1-12) come in?

*How many spins necessary before all the 3 even money patterns (rrb, brb, rbb, etc) come in?

(These are not set in stone and are just an average)


Number of trials needed to get first number is: 1.00
Number of trials needed to get 2 different numbers is 2.00
Number of trials needed to get 3 different numbers is 3.00
Number of trials needed to get 4 different numbers is 4.00
Number of trials needed to get 5 different numbers is 5.00
Number of trials needed to get 6 different numbers is 6.00
Number of trials needed to get 7 different numbers is 8.00
Number of trials needed to get 8 different numbers is 9.00
Number of trials needed to get 9 different numbers is 10.00
Number of trials needed to get 10 different numbers is 11.00
Number of trials needed to get 11 different numbers is 13.00
Number of trials needed to get 12 different numbers is 14.00
Number of trials needed to get 13 different numbers is 16.00
Number of trials needed to get 14 different numbers is 17.00
Number of trials needed to get 15 different numbers is 19.00
Number of trials needed to get 16 different numbers is 21.00
Number of trials needed to get 17 different numbers is 22.00
Number of trials needed to get 18 different numbers is 24.00
Number of trials needed to get 19 different numbers is 26.00
Number of trials needed to get 20 different numbers is 28.00
Number of trials needed to get 21 different numbers is 30.00
Number of trials needed to get 22 different numbers is 33.00
Number of trials needed to get 23 different numbers is 35.00
Number of trials needed to get 24 different numbers is 38.00
Number of trials needed to get 25 different numbers is 41.00
Number of trials needed to get 26 different numbers is 44.00
Number of trials needed to get 27 different numbers is 47.00
Number of trials needed to get 28 different numbers is 51.00
Number of trials needed to get 29 different numbers is 55.00
Number of trials needed to get 30 different numbers is 60.00
Number of trials needed to get 31 different numbers is 65.00
Number of trials needed to get 32 different numbers is 71.00
Number of trials needed to get 33 different numbers is 78.00
Number of trials needed to get 34 different numbers is 88.00
Number of trials needed to get 35 different numbers is 100.00
Number of trials needed to get 36 different numbers is 118.00
Number of trials needed to get 37 different numbers is 155.00

now for the streets........


Number of trials needed to get first street is: 1.00
Number of trials needed to get 2 different streets is 2.00
Number of trials needed to get 3 different streets is 3.00
Number of trials needed to get 4 different streets is 5.00
Number of trials needed to get 5 different streets is 6.00
Number of trials needed to get 6 different streets is 8.00
Number of trials needed to get 7 different streets is 10.00
Number of trials needed to get 8 different streets is 12.00
Number of trials needed to get 9 different streets is 15.00
Number of trials needed to get 10 different streets is 19.00
Number of trials needed to get 11 different streets is 25.00
Number of trials needed to get 12 different streets is 37.00



Finally, the 3rd example of 3-pattern EC bets {rrr,bbb,rrb,bbr,rbr,brb,brr,rbb}

Number of trials needed to get 1 pattern is: 1.00
Number of trials needed to get 2 different patterns is 2.00
Number of trials needed to get 3 different patterns is 3.00
Number of trials needed to get 4 different patterns is 5.00
Number of trials needed to get 5 different patterns is 7.00
Number of trials needed to get 6 different patterns is 10.00
Number of trials needed to get 7 different patterns is 14.00
Number of trials needed to get 8 different patterns is 22.00

cheers.

What does the long term (1m+ spins) prove?

That things more or less confirm to what probability dictates. It will more than likely show -2.70% for any 'system' you care to test.

Now let's say we have a winning player....

He has a 1k bankroll and divides it x 50 meaning he places $20 a bet.

Let's assume he can win 1 unit a day and he only plays 50 spins a day.

He also compounds his winnings. He would be placing 1k bets at the start of next year.

So 50 spins x 5 days (he doesn't do weekends) = 250 spins per week.

250 spins x 52 = 13,000 a year.

He could quit playing after just a few years and under 50,000 spins. He only needed to win 1000 units.

Do you think it's possible to win 1000 units and be ahead after 50,000 spins?

I would say yes!

Do you think it's possible to be ahead after 3.25 million spins?

I will think about that one!
　
All this talk of the long term seems like a load of nonsense to me at times.

The losing player is not going to last 3.25 million spins.

The winning player only needs a fraction of them.

　
You could argue what if 100 players all played the same as this guy x 50k spins = 5M+ spins.

Would they all win?

It's possible because they wouldn't be playing a mechanical system which would likely conform to the norm!

you couldn't get any more efficient than this guy. 

Quote from: NathanDetroit on January 04, 2013, 11:29:05 PM
My only guess is  that many of them have become such proficient roulette players among other reasoms that  they are staying away from all forum activities.

N.D..

You only need to win 1 unit a day and you can take weekends off.

Maybe they felt like someone had hit them over the head with a brick and vowed never to return to the forums again. 

It ain't rocket science we are dealing with!

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 04, 2013, 09:45:34 PM
  So in my opinion it's not trigger based but sync based. So people will need to wrap their heads around synchronization.

That's a good way of putting it. Things are in sync or not for sure!

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 04, 2013, 08:57:34 PM
The only time bet selection fails is because change occurs.

I will throw a spanner in the works and say that's correct as long as you are not involving some kind of trigger as well.

I know a lot of guys have moved away from triggers but it's not impossible that they may be a few decent ones lurking about under the surface. Don't discount anything. You never know what might turn up!

Joseph Jagger (AP)

Pelayos (AP)

Norman Leigh (non-AP)

Billy Walters (AP)

Ken Uston (AP)

Patrick o'neil Dunne (non-AP)

What do all these guys have in common?

They all played as part of a team and all claimed to win at their chosen game!

Do we underestimate the difficulty of winning by playing alone?

I am not talking about the recreational player here. More about someone who is playing with an idea to supplement his/her income. You may say that can't be done. The people above claimed to do it. Two of them are non-AP as well!

Has anybody here played as part of a team! How did it go?

What would be the advantages and disadvantages?

Here is a nice quote Albalaha....

There have been countless mathematical systems created for the random game. All of them fail miserably because the player still has a negative expectation each spin, regardless of the amount wagered. However what happens when the player has a positive expectation each spin?

Answer: Many of these worthless mathematical systems can then actually work!

Quote from: JohnLegend on January 04, 2013, 05:13:00 PM
I had a feeling of deja vu reading this tale. Im sure I've read it somewhere before.

I tell my story on every gambling forum I go on! So you probably have! 

I wouldn't worry too much JL. There are plenty of casinos out there. The one thing that strikes me reading a lot of books is the real pros work in teams. A one man outfit could certainly outstay his welcome if he got TOO greedy!

Thank you!  I have enjoyed following all the action over the last week.

I like your style Ralph! You have a plan for everything! 

So what in your opinion do you feel the most comfortable playing from everything you have shown us over the last week.

cheers