Thanks esoito!

I have never ventured into sports betting that much although my predictions on cricket are usually pretty accurate because I love the game and have spent a lot of time studying it and watching.

Some of the guys on the betfair forum are VERY good in specialist areas like boxing and tennis etc..

Roulette appeals to me mostly because of the constant payouts. The problem with horseracing is the constant change of the fields and odds. Throw in the inaccurate going descriptions we get here in the UK and people making more money laying horses to lose in the poor races and it seems a bit of a minefield.

cheers

Thanks guys for all the great replies. 

I always used to think that there must be some kind of 'HG' bet out there waiting to be discovered. I know different now. Variance can kill any system on any given day.

It's interesting reading between the lines from some of the more experienced members on here. My opinion is we are mostly saying the same thing.

It seems the trick is to be able to go with the flow and try and get the entry and exit points right. (not to be confused with HAR)

That flow can be very dynamic but I do agree with Gizmo in that there is usually a global trend happening. Although not seeing the wood for the trees can be a real problem. Developing a kind of detatched outlook is probably a good idea and one way of doing that is just to try and make intelligent bets (ie. timing).

I am convinced we can cut variance right down to the bone. Doing this certainly gives us much more of a fighting chance.

Here is a winning and losing example from today.

These were the first few spins from Table 4 and Table 2.
　
　
　
Table 4 Spielbank Wiesbaden 15/12/2012

25 3A
11 1B (2C)
6 1C (2) O
29 3B (2) S
3 1C (2) S
1 1A (2) S
25 3A (2) S
4 1A (2) S
34 3A (2) S
4 1A (2) S
4 1A (2) S
10 1A (2) S
18 2C (B) O
11 1B (3) O
12 1C (3) S
25 3A (2) O
12 1C (2) S
7 1A (2) S
27 3C (2) S
23 2B (1A) O
13 2A (1) O
10 1A (3C) O (RUN OF THREE) BET SPLITS 1/4, 2/5, 7/10, 8/11, 13/16, 14/17, 19/22, 20/23.
10 1A (3C) S (WON +10 UNITS)
　
Table 2 Spielbank Wiesbaden 15/12/2012

22 2A
22 2A
15 2C
13 2A
26 3B (1)
19 2A (1) S
9 1C (3B) O
28 3A (B) O
9 1C (B) S
20 2B (3A) O
15 2C (3A) S
18 2C (3A) S
23 2B (3A) S
27 3C (A) O
25 3A (1) O
35 3B (1) S
31 3A (1) S
10 1A (2) O
33 3C (2) S
19 2A (B) O
22 2A (B) S
33 3C (B) S
21 2C (B) S
20 2B (1) O
12 1C (A) O
13 2A (3) O (RUN OF THREE) BET DOZEN 1 + DOZEN 2.
28 3A (B) O (LOST)

Quote from: dino246 on December 15, 2012, 07:37:28 PM
Many Thanks for posting this different type of Two-Dozen concept Bally.

Will spend a relaxing sunday working on this.

Cheers.

Dino.

No worries Dino. 

Thanks Vic! 

Here is a 'quick' game I just played. (Well, it only took 22 spins!)
26 3B
26 3B
17 2B
2 1B
3 1C (A)
26 3B (A) S
18 2C (A) S
36 3C (A) S
32 3B (A) S
20 2B (A) S
7 1A (C) O
11 1B (C) S
20 2B (C) S
30 3C (A) O
17 2B (A) S
35 3B (A) S
6 1C (A) S
4 1A (2) O
1 1A (2) S
14 2B (3) O
29 3B (C) O
15 2C (1A) O (RUN OF THREE) WON.
23 2B (1A) S

This was one of those situations where I had to bet the splits because I was hoping that the 1A would stay missing.

My split bets were 14/17, 15/18, 20/23, 21/24, 26/29, 27/30, 32/35, 33/36.

It's a much better payout when this comes in as opposed to playing either the 2 dozens or 2 columns. 

I have asked Vic when he has time to make a tracker for this.

It could be good for running along with any other systems you are playing at the time.



cheers.

I would only play for the first bet and then wait for the next opportunity.

You don't want to run into a freak cycle of O's.

Most of the time you are betting either 2 dozens or 2 columns, However there are times when the third O may indicate (for example) that the 3C is the furthest back. Now you are looking for an S and hoping that the 3C remains missing. So betting against 3C means playing 8 splits = 16 numbers as opposed to the usual 2 dozens or columns = 24 numbers.

Why? Because here, you want both the 3rd dozen and column C to remain missing.

You would place bets on the 1/4, 2/5, 7/10, 8/11, 13/16, 14/17, 19/22, 20/23.

This will happen sometimes and you just need to work out what 8 splits you would need to play.

Here is another card.
13 2A
19 2A
5 1B (3C)
25 3A (C) O
15 2C (1B) O
17 2B (1) O (RUN OF 3)WON
27 3C (1) S
13 2A (1) S
27 3C (1) S
16 2A (1) S
27 3C (1) S
20 2B (1) S
22 2A (1) S
1 1A (3C) O
22 2A (3C) S
8 1B (3C) S
34 3A (C) O
31 3A (C) S
27 3C (2) O
16 2A (1B) O
23 2B (1) O (RUN OF 3)WON
26 3B (1) S
4 1A (C) O
1 1A (C) S
18 2C (3B) O
25 3A (B) O
32 3B (1) O (RUN OF 3)LOST
12 1C (2) O
1 1A (2) S
17 2B (3) O
13 2A (3) S
8 1B (3) S
7 1A (3) S
35 3B (C) O
10 1A (C) S
9 1C (2) O
27 3C (2) S
34 3A (2) S
29 3B (2) S
5 1B (2) S
14 2B (C) O
16 2A (C) S
6 1C (3) O
12 1C (3) S
32 3B (2A) O
2 1B (2A) S
31 3A (2) O
9 1C (2) S
5 1B (2) S
30 3C (2) S
7 1A (2) S
29 3B (2) S
29 3B (2) S
17 2B (C) O
12 1C (A) O
10 1A (3) O (RUN OF 3)WON
15 2C (3) S
10 1A (3) S
16 2A (3) S
12 1C (3) S
16 2A (3) S
26 3B (1C) O
16 2A (1C) S
11 1B (C) O
3 1C (3) O
10 1A (3) S
1 1A (3) S
30 3C (2) O
34 3A (2) S
9 1C (2) S
28 3A (2) S
1 1A (2) S
25 3A (2) S
31 3A (2) S
14 2B (C) O
5 1B (C) S
12 1C (3A) O
7 1A (3) O
23 2B (3) S
3 1C (3) S
17 2B (3) S
23 2B (3) S
21 2C (3) S
1 1A (3) S
30 3C (B) O
15 2C (B) S
5 1B (A) O
18 2C (A) S
6 1C (A) S
11 1B (A) S
26 3B (A) S
14 2B (A) S
14 2B (A) S
20 2B (A) S
7 1A (C) O
7 1A (C) S
30 3C (2B) 0
17 2B (1A) O
11 1B (A) O (RUN OF 3) WON
14 2B (A) S

   
Here is something interesting I found well doing some research over the last few days.

I will paste in one of my 100 spin cards and then explain the system.


13 2A
11 1B (3C)
13 2A (3C)
31 3A (C) O
3 1C (B) O
18 2C (B) S
9 1C (B) S
4 1A (B) S
26 3B (2) O
26 3B (2) S
23 2B (C) O
3 1C (A) O
23 2B (A) S
34 3A (1C) O
15 2C (1) O
35 3B (1) S
33 3C (1) S
15 2C (1) S
14 2B (1) S
15 2C (1) S
31 3A (1) S
34 3A (1) S
6 1C (B) O
34 3A (B) S
20 2B (1C) O
9 1C (3A) O
23 2B (3A) S
7 1A (3) O
17 2B (3) S
14 2B (3) S
4 1A (3) S
4 1A (3) S
29 3B (C) O
22 2A (C) S
10 1A (C) S
14 2B (C) S
34 3A (C) S
33 3C (1) O
6 1C (2B) O
5 1B (2) O (RUN OF 3) WON
9 1C (2) S
36 3C (2) S
25 3A (2) S
36 3C (2) S
35 3B (2) S
22 2A (1) O
6 1C (3B) O
34 3A (B) O (RUN OF 3) WON
21 2C (B) S
2 1B (3A) O
19 2A (3) O
15 2C (3) S
24 2C (3) S
14 2B (3) S
25 3A (1) O
31 3A (1) S
32 3B (1) S
33 3C (1) S
3 1C (2) O
18 2C (A) O
24 2C (A) S
21 2C (A) S
26 3B (A) S
6 1C (A) S
23 2B (A) S
6 1C (A) S
24 2C (A) S
28 3A (B) O
11 1B (2C) O
24 2C (3A) O (RUN OF 3) WON
8 1B (3A) S
27 3C (A) O
36 3C (A) S
30 3C (A) S
25 3A (2) O
14 2B (1) O
11 1B (C) O (RUN OF 3) WON
28 3A (C) S
21 2C (1B) O
33 3C (1B) S
35 3B (1) O
13 2A (1) S
6 1C (3B) O
25 3A (B) O
4 1A (B) S
35 3B (2) O
32 3B (2) S
26 3B (2) S
11 1B (2) S
7 1A (2) S
15 2C (3) O
8 1B (3) S
29 3B (A) O
20 2B (A) S
27 3C (A) S
6 1C (A) S
10 1A (2B) O
2 1B (2) O
9 1C (2) S
13 2A (3) O

The number is to the left.

Then I assign the dozen/column. Example 13 = 2A. (2nd dozen / column A)

The  ( ) contain the furthest back dozen and/or column.

So looking at the first few numbers from above....

13 2A
11 1B (3C).....BOTH 3 and C are the furthest back.....
13 2A (3C) .....BOTH 3 and C are still the furthest back......
31 3A (C) O......Now just the C is the furthest back........
3 1C (B) O......Now the B is the furthest back.......
18 2C (B) S......The B is still the furthest back......

You may be wondering what the O and S stand for?

If the furthest back stays the same, it is marked S.

If it changes, it is marked O.

The 'Run of Three' System is looking for three O's and then you bet for the S on the next result.

You can see that 4 bets appeared looking through my 100 spin card.

Here was the first one.
33 3C (1) O
6 1C (2B) O
5 1B (2) O (RUN OF 3)
9 1C (2) S


So you can see the three O's and now you would be looking for it to change to S.

This basically means that you want the 2nd dozen to remain missing in this case.
You would therefore bet dozen 1 and dozen 3.

Number 9 appeared (1C) which belongs to dozen 1 and is a winner.

All 4 bets were winners. Most of my cards are clear winners with this idea with very few losses at all.

cheers

It strikes me variance does not have to be the big bad wolf some people claim it to be!

Who are most likely to be the victims?

*progression players would be at the top of my list..... One bad run increasing your bets and it's likely to be 'goodnight Vienna'.

*Mechanical system players..... The player who sticks to playing his system despite the fact it's plainly not performing on the day.

*The underfunded gambler...... This is the guy who thinks he can turn 50 euros into 500 euros with just 100 chips    (we all make mistakes)

All the above can be corrected.

We don't need to bet every spin.

We can have several methods of play which are interchangeable.

We can be properly funded for our sessions and set workable targets.

So variance does not have to be the bogeyman. (That's the house edges job  )

cheers

Hello Vic

I did have an idea which I would like put in a tracker and I don't think it would be that complicated (however you would know better than me)

Here was my idea.....

[csv=,]
13,2A,,
11,1B,(3C),
13,2A,(3C),
31,3A,(C),O.......the missing 3 appeared.
3,1C,(B),O...........the missing C appeared.
18,2C,(B),S...........the B remained missing.
9,1C,(B),S...........the B remained missing.
4,1A,(B),S...........the B remained missing.
26,3B,(2),O.........the missing B appeared. 
[/csv]
The tracker would record the dozens/columns and tell you which is the furthest back dozen or/and column.

The O and S stand for 'opposite' and 'same'. The missing dozen/column appearing means it has went opposite (o). The dozen/column remaining absent means it has stayed the same (s).

I would appreciate it if you had time to fit something like this in.

Thanks.

Nice going Ralph 

spike!

Did you consider the shift manager was telling you a load of porkies about the 'algorhythms' and what he didn't tell you was that the piece of crapola was heavily biased. (It does happen and you could be talking about SD of +10) Now that wouldn't take long to rack up a few dollars.

Maybe the suit doesn't want to be putting fancy ideas into players heads about how you might actually find an edge. The 'algorhythm' story was a nice touch!

just saying......

Quote from: spike on December 13, 2012, 11:09:14 PM
You wouldn't know unless you had a system that won
more than it lost. Because you don't,

That's probably why I thought the 'alfastreet' used to cheat and is why 100's of players up and down the UK think the F.O.B.T's are fixed. 

Those were the days my friend. 

I used to think the 'alfastreet' machines were rigged! But I am not so sure about that anymore. The wheel design was slightly different and it was probably just displaying unique characteristics specific to that particular type of wheel.

My gut tells me they are above board where I play at least and I am more than happy to play them.

The manager from my local Genting casino does play a bit of roulette himself at the Gala and I have seen him play the airball several times. So I am assuming that he would not play something like that if he had an inkling there was something dodgy about them.