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Messages - Binom

#16
Ali....you are embarrassing your self. Have a proper think, count to ten and...........shhhhhhhhh.
Its not about selling a system or bot....its about beating the game and only millions of PLACED BETS can give surety as to wether the edge and maximum progression has been overcome in a sample thus making it a viable proposition..

Peace
#17
....and Ali looks like a system seller.....take from that what you will lol.
In relation to what I posted above I think this is the most pertinient point from his sales thread......
Quote from: Juiced91 on January 16, 2013, 07:03:00 AM
Okay. So in 3million spins you won 105000 units.

that's 1 unit every 29 spins. It had a max Drawdown of 8000+.

At BV you can do about 3-4000 spins a night so that's a 103-137 units a night.

Now if you play with cents that's 1Euro for a whole evening. 80Euro drawdown for 1euro.

So to make this remotely worthwhile it would have to be played with euros meaning you need a 10000euro bank.

Everyone said the Holy grail would be expensive but i think that's a bit insane. :zzz:
#18
Noone with sense would play it. You miss the point entirely Ali and have yet to make any point yourself.
If you don't see the importance of placed bets as opposed to just spins then.....think harder lol.
#19
Im not sure what your point is?..or how many bets were placed in your sample.


However, in the spirit of sportsmanship and beating the game the gauntlet seems to be...


European Roulette, Playtech 10c min-100max limits, 15k drawdown vs 30k profit, 1 mill spins.


PLACED BETS should also be factored for obvious reasons, however with a lower drawdown on your sample I yield...... for now ;-)
#20
Bayes is a good read on here too, there are elements in the profile which produced the 14mill bet sample above which he shares on his thread.
SIMULATE don't SPECULATE peeps...... and good luck to all!
#21
Erm...read the good news bit....I said it can.
Ophis can code well enough to capture any winniing method in a bot farm running through ID's he controls....without risking 'losing the goose' on a general release bot....think about it.
However my aim was not to discredit the commercial offerings of Ophis, more about sharing the challenge of the numbers with the uninitiated who may stumble on this.
A single zero wheel!.. Hats off....and target to beat!





#22
Wait.......

Do they use a no zero table?......I couldnt see on their thread? The above is against a single zero which many say can't be done....Einstein did not have the opportunity of no zero. There are only 2 no zero tables I know of and I wanted to take on the world! lol. I will post back here though if I can beat the Ophis sample drawdown vs winrate against a single zero wheel at playtech limits.

I guess though the main thing I was trying to do was bring the above facts to the attention of any get rich quick' types that may trawl these forums hoping for the grail and go off on some half cocked notion with money they can't afford to lose! SIMULATION is the way forward and if you haven't got the ability to code or the time to learn then even if you find the grail......you will give up the golden goose to get anywhere with it as someone else codes it or a bot for you....and the margin (drawdown vs winrate) will be weak ......and that's before any other unforseen complications such as the bot packing up mid progression etc.

I hope someone saves time or money from reading this.

Would be grateful if anyone knows if the Ophis sample is zero wheel or not but for now I shall ignore the fact that the sample was produced on his own proprietary software, doesn't show how many placed bets there were assume it is a single zero wheel ...to see what I can simulate. No offence meant to Ophis but any "winning" system sold is to be treated with the utmost scepticism and if its just about beating the numbers.....then I like a challenge!!
#23
Thanks, that's some good reading!
They are using a progression based around tight and tighter initial selection criteria for bets. In my sample there is always a bet on the table every spin which is great for comp points on Playtech. However their drawdown is tighter and I would take that any day.
I will tighten up selection criteria for bet initialisation as trying to beat 14kdd vs 22kwin ....in a 1 mill sample....looks like the next challenge now the game is bust!! lol
#24
THE GOOD NEWS
Guys I have some good news for all the non ballistic players......SINGLE ZERO ROULETTE IS DEFINATELY BEATABLE THROUGH LONG TERM ODDS ANALYSIS!!!!!!
I once saw a challenge online offering £20k for a system which was in the positive after 1 million placed bets. I have been working for months on roulette xtreme to create a profile based on a theory I had about personal permanence in a large sample of numbers...or spins.
Using the minimum 10p starting bet I am now at SIMULATED....14,500,000+ placed bets with a lead on the table of 0.69%.....WITHOUT HITTING THE TABLE LIMITS (Playtech table).
[IMG]http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/2295/rkhd.png[IMG]


THE BAD NEWS!!!!!!
The more astute among you will notice that for a gain of circa 22k you would have to sit down with 50+k to avoid the largest drawdown. The above sample on a single table would take 3 months for a bot running 2k spins/hr...........not worth it in my humble opinion.

CONCLUSION!!!!!!
It can be done......but the low margin vs high risk makes it an unnatractive option. Unless you are already far richer than the average man and just want to float money about for the buzz whilst minimizing risk.....AVOID ROULETTE AS AN AVENUE TO GUARANTEED REVENUE.
....unless that is....you are prepared to enter a licenced casino with a hidden device. Not for me either.
SO......In the spirit of just 'beating the game'...Tick.
However....unless you are already rich and really have nothing better to do than float cash about or are reasonably rich (to afford the equipment and an amount you can afford to lose) and are prepared to sneak about with the stress of being caught with a device......LOOK TO OTHER SOURCES FOR INCOME GENERATION!!!
To any that aren't already richer than most and choose to continue regardless...Best of luck....but please also consider checking the link below.
http://www.gamcare.org.uk/
Kind regards
#25
Bayes' ware / Re: Colour coded tracker
February 22, 2013, 01:16:26 AM
Bayes this is great, thanks for posting!
It would be a great thing to be able to save a session and then reload after a reboot. I think the larger the sample the less betting opportunities but provided the table is fair more accuracy?
User defined color changes for the SD would be great too. I think you would have a saleable tool there if you did but it is simple and unique as is.
Thanks!
#26
Hi Norm,
Firstly can I say thank you for this generous peice of work. It takes the labour out of an interesting yet labour intensive system and truth be told watching this is the only way I got my head round understanding GUT...so double thanks!
I know it is not for BV but if it would be possible to adjust the count -1 for no0 and allow unit selection I think it would be a great thing. Most people seem to trust BV RNG and it stands to reason that the software will perform best where the edge is least.
I feel cheeky suggesting this when you have provided this sample of your skills for free, it is a great peice of work as is.
Kind regards.
#27
Community Software / Re: Your operative system
February 18, 2013, 11:21:09 AM
Windows 7 me,

Thanks