Our members are dedicated to PASSION and PURPOSE without drama!

Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - Dane

#91
Math & Statistics / Re: Expected value in gambling
August 10, 2013, 12:23:19 PM
Thanks for your reply!

The more levels we go into (the higher we go), the more exciting....[smiley]aes/smile.png[/smiley]
                                                          Dane
#92
Math & Statistics / Re: Expected value in gambling
August 10, 2013, 10:38:15 AM
Welcome Dragoner! It is fine, that you are focusing on MARTINGALE on your site. Numerous beginners are fascinated by this deadly progression
The rules favour players on Even Chances by the European roulette here in Europe. At least this is the case in the casinos, I use to visit: When ZERO comes, we are losing only half of the amount on Black, red, even, odd, high or low. So  in theory we should expect to lose not 2.7%  but only half as much right there.
Contrary to Martigale we might play PAROLI (a positive progression) and double our bet after winning. Time is still important, however, and we´ll never know when the series of winning ends.  But I tried practising paroli on two groups at the same time  . The two groups should be seen as one; and paroli should be used  only after winning both places at the same time.  The danger of losing both bets are less than losing only one.  So in most cases we´ll come from a paroli session without losing all. Knowing this is less stressfull than guessing when to stop, I suppose.
THE EXACT PROBABILITIES, DRAGONER? They are harder to find, that one should think. It is due to a small UNEVEN distribution inside the even chances:
Ten of the 18 red numbers are ODD, and eight red numbers are EVEN.
Similarly, only eight  black numbers are odd. Ten black numbers are even.
The chances of coming from a paroli session without losing all depends on the combination you chose!
                                                                           Dane
#93
Straight-up / Re: Tanagra´s first repeat
August 09, 2013, 06:11:00 PM
Trizero has just introduced his NEW STRATEGY ANALYTICS WEBSITE(General discussion). I visited it and discovered, that he has tested this system too!  And his reply to me there is most valuable.  :applause:
                                                        Dane
#94
Trizero: Thanks for your reply and advice!
                         [smiley]aes/rose.png[/smiley] Dane
#95
Welcome Trizero!
And thanks for your service! I notice that you have been testing "Tanagras zweier-pleinfavoriten-Strategie" from the German roulette-forum-de (Einsteiger forum). Exactly the same one I lately tried to describe here in a few words in English ("Tanagra´s first repeat"). I am excited to see the next post from Tanagra on the German forum.
You have been testing PAROLI on black. Have you tried paroli on BLACK & ODD (Impair, ungerade Nummern), BLACK & EVEN (Pair, gerade Nummern)
RED & ODD OR RED & EVEN?
Try to look at the two groups a a whole and only practice PAROLI right after winning both places at the same time! If you only with on one: Start again with one chip here und ein Stück there.         [smiley]aes/coffee.png[/smiley] GRUSS[smiley]aes/coffee.png[/smiley]
                                                         Dane
#96
Chasing [smiley]aes/sleep.png[/smiley] [smiley]aes/sleep.png[/smiley]you should take all possible COMBINATIONS into account. It is basic probability. An example:In a class of 37 two may skive today.  If 1 is one of them,  he or she  may skive together with one out 36 other. You could count the total number of possibilites by adding 36 to 35  and so on and finally reach a certain[smiley]aes/devil.png[/smiley] sum. Or a scientific calculator could give you the answer.

The many possible combinations might scare some of us from chasing [smiley]aes/sleep.png[/smiley][smiley]aes/sleep.png[/smiley].
                                               
                                                  Dane
#97
Straight-up / Re: One more step? 0.55555555557.
August 09, 2013, 06:20:43 AM
After more testing I have to admit: This system is not good enough. Sorry. However, I still believe that a kind of positive progression (betting more after a hit) is better than a negative progression.
                                                 Dane
#98
Straight-up / Re: Tanagra´s first repeat
August 07, 2013, 04:45:47 PM
As you can see, this system from Tanagra is not just the Pivot system, although it might look like it at first. The main difference has do to with time or the number of spins involved: If the first repeat comes in the second spin, Tanagra bets until she wins or else stops after 37-2 spins. If the first repeat comes in the 20TH spin, she bets that number until she wins or else stops after 37-20 spins.
In accordance with "law C:-) of the thirds" she refers to this from Kurt von Haller.
After just 37 spins from a roulette with 37 numbers we should see :
                                                                 13.6 numbers  are absent
                                                                 13.6 numbers appearing exactly one time
                                                                    6.8 numbers appearing two times
                                                                    2.3 numbers appearing exactly three times
                                                                    0.7 numbers appearing four times or more
Of course these AVERAGE results are old news. They are still valid, however, and some of you might not have seen them before.
                                                                                                   Dane
#99
Straight-up / Re: Tanagra´s first repeat
August 06, 2013, 04:54:37 PM
Quote from: Blood Angel on August 06, 2013, 02:19:28 PM
The way I read it bet the 10 straight after its repeat for 37 spins.
Quote from: Smoczoor on August 06, 2013, 02:12:29 PM
10
26
11
0
25
30
10 - first repeater
14 - no bet ( ??? )


now bet on 10??


The way I read it: 10 repeated in the 7Th spin (which  by the way is close to the average). Include this 7 spins in your counting. So bet 10 straight after its repeat until you you win or else stop after 37-7 spins!
TANAGRA have has much luck with it. It may fail in the long run!
                                                                                           
#100
Straight-up / Re: Tanagra´s first repeat
August 06, 2013, 10:35:41 AM
I was in a hurry this morning. The method did not bring 16,000 chips - but 1,600 chips. Sorry!
                                                  Dane
#101
Straight-up / Tanagra´s first repeat
August 06, 2013, 06:23:50 AM
I found this method on roulette-forum.de
If you are able to read German, you may found it here on this German forum:: Topic 16664. Kurt voh Haller
To read and understand the books (in German) from Kurt von Haller (if they are still available) requires much more than a superficial knowledge of probabilities.
Anyway, one of his books inspired TANAGRA to initiate a topic. She waits for the first repeat - and then she bets that number (flat betting). For how long?
She stops after winning - or after exactly 37 spins (including the first spins without betting).
In her ongoing test  (after approx.23,000 spins) she has won approx. 16,000 chips. The test continues!

                                                              Dane
                                                                                 
#102
Straight-up / Re: One more step? 0.55555555557.
August 05, 2013, 10:47:22 AM
Quote from: rayhd63 on August 04, 2013, 01:02:03 PM
Hi Dane,

if I see it right, after you go up 1 unit , you start tracking from scratch.
Why not leave the unhit numbers ?!?

And is it right that you go up one level after a hit?!?

I go down 1 unit after 2 unhit streets?

Thanks
Ray

Yes, we go up 1 unit after a hit.
After each "move" we retrack and look at the next numbers only.
If it is possible we  sometimes go 1 unit down. Not after 2 unhit streets as you suggest; but only when two streets have come more than once after the latest "scatch". Please study at the example to agesta
                                                                                     Dane
#103
Straight-up / Re: One more step? 0.55555555557.
August 04, 2013, 07:48:19 AM
In my recent test I won approx. 2,500 chips - but then I lost approx. 3,500 chips.
Instead of climbing even higher it might be better to be modest:
To end the session if we have won for instance 500 units.

                                            Dane
                                                                     
#104
Yes, thanks to Bayes! Actually I am better piano player [smiley]aes/headphones.png[/smiley]than calculator; but the divine structure  in the music of Johann Sebastian Bach might have helped me! Now we have all deserved[smiley]aes/coffee.png[/smiley][smiley]aes/coffee.png[/smiley] I think!
                                                                                  Dane
#105
Quote from: Chrisbis on August 03, 2013, 10:04:14 AM
Well, although no 'practically viable', the direct logical answer to your question of:-


"How many number out of 37 could be missing after 20 spins" = 36


and that is because all 20 spins could have been the same single number. [smiley]aes/surprized.png[/smiley]
I asked: "How many of the 37 numbers are probably missing....."
PROBABLY my method  shows just that. At least I hope so.  What happens in most cases? And what  COULD happen?
Two different questions!  My cheap calculator can´t find the probability of  (1/37) ^19. In real life you ought to call the media (or balance the wheel) if something like that happened in this millenium!

                                                                         Dane