Quote from: Bayes on January 08, 2013, 01:22:51 PM
sqzbox,
Extreme events are by definition rare, so it follows that a win (a non-extreme event) is much more likely to be followed by another win, and a loss is more likely to be followed by a win.

Quote from: Bayes on January 08, 2013, 08:15:48 AM
I would submit that attempting to capitalize on RTM may be an engineering problem, but it isn't a fallacy, although admittedly, in practice the distinction between them isn't so clear cut.

True, and actualy this is the biggest problem here. If one can solve this engineering problem efficiently then he has beaten the game.
Without this efficient solution, RTM means well, pretty much nothing. 


Regards


Drazen

But mr. Bayes what about exploring of this phenomena in roulette in practice? It isn't so simple as it might seem. It isn't just enough to start betting after 1st extreme is measured hoping that you won't have severe deviation in same direction. It can happen, and it will happen eventualy, and the true is that just after 2nd extreme, things might start go evened (but still not correcting in great ratio) and no MM can handle that...


But again if you take a short term indication to start the attack like if you see few wins in last few spins, you can also get in black serie of losses after that... How do you know deviation stops to grow and it is distributing normal or going back slight in back?


I think that is the main question and hardest thing to accomplish? It can happen that everytime you enter in the cycle thinking  few wins indicate that correction, black serie for starts again. You stop, waiting again such thing, but it happens again, just when you entered, which takes you with good number of losses already.


That happened to me while practicing this thing.. So what is your advice?


Cheers


Drazen

And on more session. It won flat bet flawlesly.. 


Good luck finding such bet of yours to everyone who don't have it..


Best


Drazen

Quote from: esoito on January 07, 2013, 01:15:25 AM
Moderator's Warning To Drazen

It would be much better if you keep your opinions of a forum member to yourself rather than criticise him/her in public here.

And don't think for one minute that stating "no offence" as you contiinue to insult the member let's you off the hook. It doesn't.

Your behaviour is NOT acceptable.

KINDLY. READ. THE. RULES -- and observe them.  [And look up the word "inflammable" while you're there...]

An apology to Ignatus  would also be appropriate.

Ah, yes there is no anything from saying some things, because they can't be changed, and it is best to ignore them, especialy when you shouldnt and actualy don't give a damn for it... 


I uderstand sometimes some things just must look protocol well, although their true functionality is total...    and even if they are far away from something normal and reasonable, you have to stand them because upper institutions consider it  jus protocol well.


Few people told me in private, that they personaly also think excatly what I said about ignatus, but who cares

[STOP IT!! You're doing it again!!]


Apology? Protocol? Ok I am sorry..


Eppur si muove!


Cheers


Drazen

Quote from: ignatus on January 06, 2013, 05:39:21 PM
That's very unrealistic

I don't want to be harsh or play some smart guy, but only thing what is unrealistic is you, and especialy your approach to all this.


By approach I mean (and not only for this forum, and this thread) that even when someone with much more knowledge and experience , explains and warns you , you neglect and continue to drill the same thing or very similar like nothing happened.

C mon no one can have so flat learning curve, with no offense at all.


Actualy your agenda on forums and reasons/goals you have is questionable if you ask me, but that is just my opinion. No ofense please There is all kind of us here..


It seems to me like you just trying to discretly and in a strange way, provocate.. Like with this what you said


I'm not sure a random number generator can be used to say this is not a working method (Superman). At real tables, in real play repeats will happen, +1 progression will save you, even if repeats will not happen for 60 spins  That's very unrealistic


You just have that newbie "profile" for too long and for too strange to be true.


And now don't delete this post like you did on RF.cc when I told you similar thing earlier.. That told me a lot also..


All the best


Drazen

Have you counted how many short lasted, "longterm winning systems" have you come up with by now? You should apply for Guinesses book in that subject, I am sure you will be the winner for this year 


Will you ever learn that one way progressions lead to sure catastrophic losses longterm?  (Unless you are JL)


I wonder how come isn't clear to you by now that you can't overcome ANY possible maximum losing streak in this game you can think of, betting on anything on the table with one way progression?? That way table limits are set for 


In your case considering this, just  one of situations you would lose is if you would have 26 unique numbers in a row. Is it possible?You don't know.. but now take a guess...

Best

Drazen

Quote from: albalaha on January 06, 2013, 12:24:27 PM
Bayes,
    I always agree upon what u say because u r the least biased person I have ever seen but how can we see whether a wheel has actually biased or it is a temporary variance merely?

I have experiment where experts were meausuring in very precise boundaries how much actualy takes for a wheel to have "bias"


I won't bother with detailed numbers in tests, although they were amazing.


This is the conclusion.



Tilting the wheel to 1.35° led to a greater than 99.9% probability that the results were the
result of a "bias" on the wheel. Reducing the angle of tilt reduced the probability figure, but
even at an angle of only 0.1°, a probability of 98% that the wheel was "biased" was still
obtained. The results in the other three planes gave repeatable results, with the lowest
probability still in the region of 98%. An analysis of the peak segment numbers also indicates
that the "bias" appears to move in relation to the plane in which the table is tilted.


So BIAS is  AP method which has the widest possibility of exploring in casino, and in practice it is very very hard to have perfectly leveled wheels without some degree of bias.


On contrary, to find it, and use it against casino takes enormous amount of time and spins. We are talking about several thousands of spins to get sure confirmation.


And be sure that whenever some fat giant guy leans on the table while you are playing, you have biased/wheel/ results and you don't have perfect random results 
(if the wheel is not deatached from the table, which is best countermeasure for this)


Cheers


Drazen

Quote from: TwoCatSam on January 05, 2013, 05:59:10 PM
Wins?  Someone kindly explain that word to me!

Well mr. Samster you wanted wins considering what those two gentlemans are talking about? I will show you my 2 average session. Last one is very fresh,  live play today.


Look at the pics.


Doing something similar or maybe very same what superman says in my case looks like this . Ok I didn't played as much session as he did, but I did almost 70 by now. And they looked pretty much like that one which is circled with red Yes I won almost all of them even flat bet i think.. But I use some slight progression.


That is about 20 000 spins by now. The thing is that biggest recorded total DD was 56 units (not typo ), and just once I was betting 15 units on table. But that regulary goes under 10.


I see this like knitting. It takes time to master the skill and you have to be carefull not to stab yourself with an needle. But once you master skill, you can make interesting "handicrafts" and sale is going good hehe


Cheers


Drazen

Quote from: Bayes on December 09, 2012, 04:49:00 PM
I just thought "Bayes' ware" was looking a bit empty, but I'll have some new trackers and stuff coming soon.

Yes I look forward if you will publish some of them.


I collected all your software you published by now. Most of them for me are more then usefull and good.


Thanks


Drazen

Well that man was not so smart in the  way of his appearance. He was very stupid if you ask me, with no offense...


You can't go in the casino and take every day as much as you want (when/if you have great winning method). His greed was apparent and he showed it incredibly irrespective considering what kind of machinery he deals with... 

Yeah, soon they learned him a lesson, actualy it is good he is still on his feet.. You just don't comfortably walk in front of the tank waving with bazooka...


Now his life become unpleasnt, he has to run, hide, but it is maybe too late in a way....


Hat off to the method if so, but it just proves ingenuity is very relative and can be narrow, one sided term actualy.


In life is more less all about attitude, right?


My humble opinion


Regards


Drazen

Well yes, but  still that isn't so simple as it maybe sounds. To win flat bet... It doesn't means that still it doesn't have some variance and that you will win every session.


And to say the truth, we are not the ones who made that "winning march." But why not to learn it and stride it?



I consider "great" anyone who can beat this game in any way, longterm. That is very hard.


And speaking of flat bet AP guys are also beating the game without progressions.


Cheers




Drazen

It is not system as that. Anyway..


Albalaha,  just becasue you don't know how to do it, doesn't means it isn't possible. Yes, there is a way as MarignyG. says.


Two of us together have succeeded to pass 1033 placed exactly I think, with 3.23 std flat bet on outside EC-s using his software


I ll spare you the math, it is bit over +80 units flat bet on over 1000 placed bets


You won't see that somewhere just like that 


Cheers


Drazen

I wish you all next year to be much better then this was (in any case ) and to be healthy and happy!!!


Cheers


Drazen

But why to play one match that can end 3 way?


Instead of it you should try asian handicap betting. No matter what event or type of bet in the game you play, chances are 50:50. Odds are equaled.


I started with just 6 euros bank playing 0.20 cents chip. So it was 30 units. When I doubled it I also doubled chip size to 0.40. I  I came at 1 euro chip and 32 euros bank in month and a half, and not losing more then 3 bets in a row. I like that variance


I play total odds to be around 2.0 and apply one variant of "Foolproof" MM.


Bet selection is little bit of my knowledge/prediction, and little bit of taking from other tipster that are giving it for free and competing on some sites


It works better then I thought it will 


But lot of patience, discipline and enough bank when bad serie comes. It has to sometimes.. But again, i think hardly long and strong as it can on roulette EC-s for example lol


Cheers


Drazen