http://www.blogabet.com/

That is the place on which you can look for them.

It is place for sports betting blogs. You will see many of blogers there but of course not all are equally successful. But thing is that isn't too hard to spot who is good and how much, as under each avatar you will see percent of success and under that number of played bets in brackets.

Everything here is on order, in meaning of that one can't manipulate, change or be anyhow nontransparent.

Also you will see "market" tab there which means that one can buy or sell picks.

So Albalaha there is your chance to earn if you are so good at sports picking. Open a blog, show to people how good you are, and then they will buy subscription from you. Then you won't be able to tell how no one is gratefull for your picks and efforts.

So take a look around. For me one of the best places for sports bettors.

Cheers

Yes I do and I am glad that you say too that volatility in sports is usually lower then in some others gambling areas (With reasonable playing of course)

I see your thread with sports picks and you are flat bet in plus. Nice.

I know that in sports betting most important thing for getting "less risk" is information. I have spoken with few true professionals in this area and they all say good information is the key. But of course that requires plenty of time to read a lot of sports portals, news, magazines etc.

I know that one of them is waking up at 4-am every day in order to collect earliest and best info's. But they all also use a bit of stats, and very important thing, weather forecast too...

All that takes enough of time to get "advantage" over bookies. I don't have that much time together with playing roulette.

But I know where to find such successful people who are competing in this and give free picks. That saves a lot of time.

Drazen

Quote from: Albalaha on October 22, 2013, 08:57:48 PM
There is no need to play it like roulette where winning is considered next to impossible.
It can be played far better.

Well I had great success by now playing like that, Tomla too and that is all play over fair amount of time..

To be honest as it goes now works much better then I was hoping before the start.

So can you explain how do you mean it can be played even better? In terms of money management?

Drazen

Croatia , Europe.

I'll see when I finish college, then I ll have more options to consider.

Cheers

Ah my friend I am humble person in general.

For me, even half decent job at the point where I am standing now would be fine [smiley]aes/sad.png[/smiley]

My country has unemployment of almost 20%, and our tax here is 25% and it will raise as they are announcing! I believe highest in the world.. 

Well I know that Tomla. I was doing excatly like that.

But thing is that BR becomes so nice and I always have a hole in my budget which needs to be covered, and it is usualy only chance... Got it?

Anyway.. Better times will come and one day It won't be problem to have starting BR of few hundreds... 

Cheers

Thanks Tomla

Maybe it seemed so from my first post, but this isn't the first time I succeeded like this. About 2 years ago I deposited 6 € with 0.2€ base and turned it in 19 ,then deposited 19 and come about 100, and now this.. It would be definitely doable for me to even live out of it (with enough money)

My biggest problem is that as a student I don't have steady incomes, and some student jobs I can get are once in a blue moon. So just as I earn some money I need to shell it out on something, as I don't want my parents to cover all expanses about that.

So it is a constant fight for me to have some extra money which I can use for roulette and sports betting. But anyhow I still feel happy no matter what I have to withdraw everything from time to time. It is nice and sad feeling at the same time [smiley]aes/confused.png[/smiley] (as I am aware that if I wasn't carefull I could lost all, and takes a lot of energy in the end to avoid that, especially on roulette)

Drazen

Sorry I knew you expected maybe more details.

Everything in it is based on keeping same efficiency all the time with as lower DD-s as possible (or at least as I am ready to handle in return for efficiency )

Stetson Bailey has good book on MM, ( I can send you a copy if you don't have it) and you can find good ones too at our ministry of progressions which George leads with his deputy Atlantis [smiley]aes/lol.png[/smiley]

Regards

Drazen

Very elegant [smiley]aes/girl.png[/smiley]

As it is custom tailored for my "measures".

Drazen

Gents I wonder does anyone of you plays sports betting and using some MM from roulette?

I was doing so last some time and found it amazed how easy it goes...

I deposited on 7th October 94.5 € and decided to play sports betting using my roulette MM. Today is 22nd and I doubled my starting bankroll. I will show screen for non believers [smiley]aes/headphones.png[/smiley]


I play it exactly like I play roulette in terms of money management and I personally give  more credit to that then to my sports picking.  Maybe you will wonder how?

I play it to have total odds of about 2.0 and I usually take 1-3 picks. I treat that as one game and each game represents 1 unit in a bank. I started with 1 € as a base so I had starting bank of 94.5 units

I can say that by now my biggest DD was about 35 units max, almost tree time less then my bank can handle.

I am taking picks mostly by my knowledge in sports and sometimes If I am not sure what to play, I look what pros say on blogabet.com, here or some sports betting sites,  read their analysis and usually play that pick even a bit safer (if for example they offer a bet with high confidence according to them and Asian handicap of -0.5 where odds are about 1.90 I play it safer with lower odds) I just make my 2.0 total odds bet and this is how betselection usually goes.

Variance was more then nice as I can handle. I like that.

I am really consistent in money management which it practically does all job for me and I don't need to have some super hitting percentage, actually good under 50% of won tickets, but that is how it seems to me, no matter how strange this may sound I am not too concerned about picks.

This is becoming kinda my 2nd hobby and it is fun

Regards

Drazen

Quote from: Mike on October 21, 2013, 05:17:24 PM

You can wait for 12 standard deviations from the mean

Certainly I can't.

Anyway, I ll take only the best whishes from here. Thanks

Good luck to you too Mike.

Drazen

Quote from: Biagle on October 21, 2013, 02:18:05 PM

some time ago i looking in your all posts too, but didn't found how you are playing.


Maybe you have a time/wish to show us more about your game style?

My friend I tried to explain that  several times here and in the thread where I shown my progress when I started... I can't tell you do everytime exactly this and that and you ll be fine. Unfortunately it isn't so straight forward and simple.

I understand that some lazy non sayers are just waiting for someone who says that is winning consistently, but without some set in stone rules, to argue with him...

You must understand that maybe  "blur" of my explanation is coming from part where money management and progression(s) are. They are closely correlated with betselection and they are made on "the fly". Nothing too strict or set in stone. It is dynamic. They are made at the moment of playing depending on the situation with the bet. Most simply said it would be to bet more as deviation is more stretched or stronger.

As betselection I use "correction" or regression to the mean after strong deviations on different bet selections on outside EC-s (DBL, FTL, but series, singles and some other things when I recognize too). I use software tracker made by Bayes from this forum for that purpose (you have it on RF.cc. I gave the link somewhere in the past posts)

And that is pretty much it. Now thing is that one would need to spent enough time with this,  to see what are the worst scenarios and how to deal with them. That is the time and place where you need to search best suitable money management and practice your play.

For that purpose I was again using one Bays-es tool, which BTW I consider most brilliant piece of software for roulette that exists out there. It is called "sequence analyzer" (you have it on RF.cc too) with which you can actually  "create" and deviation on any bet selection you need and play as many spins after that as you want... So with that I was  practicing play countless times and Iearned how to row a boat on our random sea...

Regards

Drazen

Quote from: Mike on October 21, 2013, 12:45:51 PM

Drazen, I looked at your recent posts and couldn't see anything about how long you've been winning. Do you keep records of your play and can you give me a ROI and the number of actual bets you've made?


Or something like total staked x 100% / total returned

Sorry Mike I don't record such stats. When I sit at the table I am only concentrated to win the session. Every session is for itself and every session is new and different fight.

If all that isn't enough, I can't nor have intention to prove you otherwise that long term winning on roulette is possible. Sorry.

Drazen

Quote from: Mike on October 20, 2013, 07:37:41 PM
I know about variance and regression to the mean. Could you post exactly what you're doing please? and how long have you been playing this way? and with what results?

What I do in basic is to wait strong deviation (like z-score not before 3.0 ) and then enter in the play  betting for "correction". That "correction" doesn't mean that I expect that underrepresented events will catch the difference in the short term, nor I actually even need that.. Nothing but average hit rate or even less than that with MM I use. And that is what RTM says : if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement...

But of course we must be aware to far end of a bell curve which is z score about 5.28, and when in roulette something can happen, it WILL happen. That is the law of probability. Those are so called "black swans" (named by Nasim Taleb) or very rare statistical events. You must be aware of them and have a plan in your MM how to dodge them when they visit you. And they will. I showed on forum some time ago one example where in 28 spins on EC-s I had only 2 wins.. Nasty one... But you know that after that it can't go much more against you , so on the same side it is good opportunity for nice blitzkrieg ambush

So MM is very important part. Even with so nice BS, you will see that isn't enough to have some predetermined (stiffed) progression or plan of staking... It is much wiser to start slowly and raise you stakes depending on the situation. The longer the sequence over which the deviation occurs, the safer it is to be more aggressive in your staking.

I haven't lost as yet and I started as I shown on forum.

And at the moment I use software tracker for that purpose, made by Bayes form this forum. But in the future I think I ll made one custom made for myself.

Hope this helps.

Drazen

Quote from: Mike on October 19, 2013, 02:57:45 PM

Drazen, care to explain?

I'm looking forward to your explanation of how it's possible that 2 + 2 = 5!

I actually did, dear Mike. If you will go through my last posts you will find it there. So as first ascent from my real play...

You are stuck with expectations in this game... But as I see that isn't biggest problem in this game..

Imagine you are playing red and black and somehow you have mystery bet selection which can obtain ideal sequence going LWLWLWLW all the time... That is called variance. Now tell me, if zero would interfere by its probability (1/36) from time to time, would you care if you would apply any negative progression and wouldn't even care about it? I assure you, you wouldn't

So question you have to ask is it possible somehow to lock down certain number of losses in next x spins after some point? Yes.

Next question would be due to what and how that would be possible?

First of all due to randomness limits, (randomness has its limits you know?) and one phenomenon you can use in randomness which is scientifically provable of course and it is called regression toward mean. Maybe you have heard of?

Unfortunately you can't ideally reduce variance as in the example I gave, but even if you manage to reduce it by some part you are at very good postion to "crack" the game.

Then comes final and also very important part for that "cracking". How you will deal and profit from that reduced variance?

That is what you have to do with progression(s) and money management. It will need some practice and testings, but it can be found what works good enough. [smiley]afb/comfort.gif[/smiley]

That is how I spoted things and it works for me (and some others too)

Regards

Drazen