Quote from: Mike on June 13, 2018, 03:15:25 PM
Gizmo,

Us mathboyz keep delivering the math but you guys keep sending it back. 

So it's MY fault you're soliciting for students? LOL. Well I'm flattered that apparently my posts are so influential. 

The "global effect" and other trends can only be seen once they've already happened, and unfortunately predicting the past doesn't put food on the table.

Please give the math for the global effect. I'm waiting for that?


I thought you would like that. Well it's actually 12 years of "past spins can't predict the future."


"The "global effect" and other trends can only be seen once they've already happened," -- That's a nice slogan, phrase, antidote, axiom, etc...


To bad it is not true though. A sequence that lasts from 30 to 120 spins has a middle. To know this is true you must actually see the middle of one. You have seen one haven't you? Did you ever notice it in the middle of it occurring? You should look for it. It will boggle the mind for you to see it and then tell yourself it's not really there. I'm waiting for that equivocation. Why? Because I tend to see at least one good one every week.

Quote from: Mike on June 13, 2018, 03:04:46 PM
LOL, the casinos won't be going bankrupt even if someone has an edge, they'll simply ban you or take steps like they did when Thorp wrote Beat The Dealer.

First learn what an edge is before saying you don't need one.

The problem with progressions, no matter how cleverly constructed, is that they all amount to flat bets eventually. This is because they assume a particular ordering of the outcomes which must materialise in order for the progression to work. Something like the martingale or fibonacci makes the assumption that some wins are going to come along SOON. Making them less aggressive relaxes this assumption, but they still assume that when you start increasing the stakes the wins are going to coincide with those larger stakes, and there just isn't any  reliable way of ensuring that this will be the case, UNLESS you have an edge. In other words, to ensure that profits from winning bets will exceed losses from losing bets, you need a better than RANDOM chance that  the outcome you're betting on will win. Isn't it obvious?

Mike, you make an excellent and logical argument that to win with a progression you need a sequence that allows the progression to win. On the bad side of that there is the perfect killer sequence that makes the progression lose. That too is logical, and it happens just enough to render the progression method a pointless adventure, in my opinion. But if it is a sequence that makes it work or not work then why can't sequence hunting be a method? If that is doable then can't the skill of sequence hunting be an edge? You can see how a blind use of sequences tells the true story. But what about deliberately using sequences that appear to be continuing in the positive side of your strategy? What if you knew a sequence of extreme positive consequence was going to appear in the next 1200 to 2000 spins? That this was typical and that these sequences tend to last from 30 to 120 spins? Would you ignore such a phenomenon?

Quote from: Mike on June 13, 2018, 11:07:56 AM
But since the forum has a new owner, perhaps a review of the rules regarding advertising and/or selling might be in order? There are several members doing this, including Gizmotron who is now looking for more students. I quote : "PM me if you want private tutoring." -- Gizmotron. (https://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/for-those-who-think-house-edge-or-negative-expectation-is-the-sole-culprit/msg63571/#msg63571)

You are right that I should not solicit for new students. Minor problem though. It's people that know I closed the last school more than 6 months ago. They are contacting me to start another group. That might just be one person at a time or it might be a small group. But what is really happening is mostly your doing. It is because of you that I figured out that the math boys need to prove that the Global Effect does not exist and that it is clearly not an advantage in your view. The mathBoyz need to come up with the math that supports their opinions. Meanwhile, I'm going to dedicate this new group to excelling in the full awareness of the Global Effect. Any students will get the basics that give them a real chance to win first. Then a never before focus on just how the Global Effect acts, how often it occurs, and most of all how to exploit it to the fullest will be discussed and shown until each student is a living contradiction of your math claims. You guys take up the challenge or somebody else will. I'm coming for the mathBoyz. That includes you Mike.


There might become a new section here at this forum. That is clearly up to those who run it. The world is full of on-line tutors. Why not a real gambling method that takes real hard work in order to succeed. I'm teaching a skill. And guess what? I'm getting good at it. My software is designed to teach a person to see randomness opportunities. People have already shown that it is not some confusing snake oil. Randomness sometimes produces sequences that are just too good to be true. Why people don't seize these moments is mostly your fault. You are like the lemming whisperer. You are selling your opinions also. I charge a small amount just to get the truly interested and to make it private. You sell it because you actually believe yourself.

Quote from: Albalaha on June 08, 2018, 02:46:13 AM
Regarding Gizmotron, he is very different from us. He talks of patterns identification and exploiting them. Mathematicians expressly deny that patterns do not help in gambling. They are only illusions. As Mike said earlier, a pattern could end or continue whenever we try that, with equal probability. I believe that Gizmo might be having something that could work differently than we think but he could not be able to convince us on that, so far.

Probability or not the Global effect continues for very long periods.


Something I just noticed reading my old threads regarding the Global Effect: You don't get the continuation of a repeating characteristic from grouping to grouping in Baccarat, Craps, and Blackjack even though you can play or only play these games as even chance bets. Only in Roulette do you have the options of playing 12 sets of dozens making up 4 groupings and 12 sets of even chance sets that make up 6 groupings as just an example of my own playing style. It is because of that the Global Effect can not be seen in other games other than Roulette.


So I'm getting requests to teach again in my PM's. Interesting. Nobody knows my newest method and why I went back to EC's. But what a few really want is to become experts at hunting the global effect. I don't blame them too. I sort of put a bull's-eye on myself to the math guys as a major challenge to refute the existence of it.


PM me if you want private tutoring. This could be the moment when trends become the fashion regardless of what the probability states what should happen. I'd like to focus just on the global effect and the skills needed to beat this game while hunting them. This time it will be private email and not a school for all to see. I will cut and paste questions and answers to this group. I have found that almost everyone has the same questions while learning. I hope that at least five students will sign up for this. I will share the cost among this limited group. If I get 5 students then all will get in for a reduced and shared price. It will take at least six weeks just to get to the point where each student can prove to me that they know how to do this. My goal is to turn out Roulette winners. It will be my success story. I have my reasons. The math crowd is starting to consider this after 12 years. Once they have it, the world will change. And i really enjoy opening peoples eyes.

OMG, reading my old thread on the global effect I see that Xanadu is in fact Snowman from GG, and Dr Sir AA from another forum. He goes by several other names elsewhere too. Snowman is the destroyer of Gambler's Glen.


Cage that deplorable and keep him locked up. He has one obnoxious opinion that always runs and hides from real debate or contribution, no matter what forum he is on. He doesn't really want proof. He wants to Troll.

Quote from: james on June 10, 2018, 03:15:43 PM
Can you elucidate "Global Effect"? Can you illustrate the "occurrence of global effect" with an example of baccarat or roulette. I tried many search engines to know about "global effect", and I could not come with any answer. Perhaps this is a new Science that is being developed by you.

Well, it's sort of right underneath your nose:


https://betselection.cc/gizmotron/the-global-effect-what-is-it/

https://betselection.cc/gizmotron/proof-of-the-global-effect/

Keeping the thread on topic, if there are any so called math oriented frequentist left around here there is one thing that should be addressed. The Global Effect occurs. It gives the aware player an almost or near perfect continuous win streak that tends to last from 30 minutes to several hours. Putting blinders on in order to pretend that they don't exist does not prevent them from occurring. So if you are so smart when it comes to probability and all that it would imply, go ahead and show us the math for explaining the Global Effect. Perhaps it already has another name? My guess is that it is an original idea. I'd like credit for that. 12 years is a very long time on these forums. I've known that the mathBoyz have been wrong all this time.


Now let's see some fallacy chanting. I want to see full blown protection of your fake opinions. Stop running and hiding. All I get is a best impression of Claude Rains, meets Tommy from the Pinball Wizard. You demand proof. Use that space between your ears. That is where the most convincing proof of all will occur.


Explain the Global Effect.


This should get funny.

Quote from: Xander on June 09, 2018, 12:29:13 AM
OK, so where's the proof?  We're still waiting. 

Funny, that's what comes to our minds too when we think of the people that "literboyz" but that aren't "mathboyz" as well.  Since you've taken the time to learn how to read, perhaps you could spend a little bit more time and learn some math as well? 

Don't you soothsayers know that you can't beat Roulette with math? You have to use something else. I told you where the proof is. You don't want to find it? You don't want to see it. That is not my problem. It's right in front of you. I even drew a map. I discovered it and shared it with the world. All it did was make cow birthing experts out of you all. You guys used other people's formulas and algorithms to grandstand on the backs of dead people with absolutely totally dead ideas. If an original thought were to pass through your heads I doubt that it would make contact with any obstructions. Now lean on the favorite word "fallacy." It's like watching a monkey drool like Pavlov's dog. Time to rewrite the books.

Quote from: Mike on June 08, 2018, 08:23:59 AM

If you like following trends, by all means do it. It's no WORSE than any other way of choosing what to bet on next. Just don't kid yourself that it actually makes a difference. If you disagree, please show me the evidence that trends have any validity. 

OK Mike, I'll show you. I've been trying to show you guys for more than 12 years. If you want to see this in Blackjack, Baccarat, or Craps you won't see the amazing phenomenon but perhaps once every 2 months, and that's if you play for more than four hours every day. Now I have 12 sets of even chance, 18 - 20's, making up 6 groups as well as 12 sets of unique dozens making up 4 groups to find these occurrences from. So I see these amazing trends about every four or five days that I play. I see them because I know that they are the most valuable opportunity that randomness has to offer. I've seen them go on for more than four and one half hours one time. But they have a typical commonness to the average ones. To me they are a sign reading "time to rob the casino." To you they are a concept that you must denigrate out of the possibility of the exposure that you are just another common nitwit.


I see these things everywhere I go. I always capitalize on them when they happen. Can you guess what it is? Do you actually know what they act like? For a guy that hopes to find an edge because of a physical cause, you, of all people, should be an expert at these. I'm telling you that they are the biggest edge in gambling. But you see nothing. So I look at you and your clowning around with the what is real stuff in this world act and I'm always amused by your sinking ship alarm and the rearranging of the deck chairs. You are blind. I want you to see so you will shut your trap. But you like being a pest. It will just be too bad if you find out all this too late. Humor, that is what comes to mind when I think of you mathBoyz.

Jimske, I sat back a second, kept my cool, and I can't disagree with your statement. We see calling people narcissists all the time these days. It's just a word. But when you see the confusion and/or misunderstanding in a discussion it's always good to know what is actually being communicated.

Just so that you all can grasp some knowledge regarding all this easy Narcissism talk so "freely" being thrown around. Everyone tends to have one or two characteristics of Narcissistic behavior in them. It takes more than five traits to be classified as a Narcissist in the DSM-5.


The primary indicator is in a single behavior trait where disagreement is misunderstood for criticism. It's a button that triggers a defensive response. It is the same reaction and trait for codependency too. The reaction usually results in an attempt to control the situation by manipulation.


The trick to get out of the misunderstanding is to not react when anyone is disagreed with until it's clear that it was in fact only a disagreement and not an insult. It is easy to misunderstand disagreement because it can imply that someone does not know something. The trick to maintaining your cool is to admit to yourself that you just might not know something. You don't have to have a cow if you don't know a thing. At least you don't need to run a tired out old skit that is supposed to protect you. Just wait a few seconds before exploding. See if you like seeing both sides of an opinion. Listen to the messenger. Life is far better when you listen well. It's better to not go through a wasted day regurgitating the silence treatment than it is to have fun that day.

Quote from: Xander on June 07, 2018, 01:37:16 PM
The phone call never happened!  Why do you exaggerate like that!!!

What a complete load of BS!

Aren't you just guessing.

Quote from: Mike on June 07, 2018, 12:46:54 PM
Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event.

Nice one Captain Obvious. And thanks for agreeing with me. Glad I could help.


I use trends specifically to identify information after the event. And yes, they are meaningless. It's just that some things are more meaningless than others, considering all things being equal that is.

Quote from: Gizmotron on June 03, 2018, 03:59:12 PM

Most gamblers lose as they walk in the door and open their wallets. They all have an amount that they are willing to lose. They can say it is the cost of entertainment or that they owe the casino for that fantastic looking chandelier. They can pay $50 to get $1 worth of comps. It's all a game to get them to sit down and stay. And it is totally the bankroll that takes them out. It's smaller than the variance, based on table layout minimums. As soon as they hit their limit they pull their parachutes and out the door they bounce, happy as a sucker for a happy ending in a chic-flick.

This is a very good way to escape this lunacy.

I did read it. What you are suggesting as being a display of reality is only a fallacy. It's a good bit of sophistry too. It's the greatest lie since casinos ever opened their doors.


The casinos have drop boxes all over the table game areas that must balance against all chips removed and given to players during the days play. Some people that stay for days and take their chips up to their rooms also must be factored in. So a balance of taken in money and paid out money, confirmed by the cashier's desk, must result in a hard number of earnings. If a Blackjack player walks up to a Roulette table with a pocket full of $25 chips and starts playing that pile of chips then the simple balance at the table is thrown off. But the entire table game area is still in balance because only the table games have cash drop boxes and casino chips that need to be cashed in.


Your example of how much a casino takes in is theoretical mambo jumbo. There is a real count. If the average activity of the table game area results in a house edge of say 4% advantage to the house for example. Then over a years time the amount of money actually wagered should result in a 4% take as earnings from the activity of gambling in the table game area. You could say that out of a discovered number of bets placed, at an actual average value of each bet for the entire table playing area, a 4% return on those wagers was realized. That would be a hard and factual number. So where is the book keeping for that? If I were an IRS agent investigating or auditing these enterprises I would want to know the hard real numbers. If the casino was a publicly traded corporation then those real numbers would be published to see. Are you right? Do you know what the casino earns from the table gaming area of a casino?


I don't think it's just the house edge. I believe it is way more, do to human nature and greed. But, I will give you a chance to prove what I believe to be a ridiculous conclusion. I think that the single spin result rate for the Roulette table alone is exactly as expected by the probability numbers. But that the casino takes in far more from a gambler's session because of ignorance on the player's part.