I just tried to PM him back and he has that capability blocked.

So lets try this in the wide open.

I tried to register. Something very disturbing happened. You require the real name and birthday. That's a huge no no for giving out information on the internet. Everything about this smells fishy. So thanks but I don't know you.

If people actually get these stages then I won't try another jump start technique. I was going to demonstrate how a rule based bet selection method would reveal the win streaks. It would be completely mechanical. The player waits for four or five sleeping dozens or columns in a row. You then flat bet the other two active doz/col. This method will show the effectiveness of 4's and of 5's. In 150 there are from 1 to 3 streaks of sleepers that can be nicely effective. This can be a mechanical method. If people can wait for 21 - 60+ spins to place three bets then they can easily do this. The global effect can be a rule also. It would be fun to watch stage 1 - 5 players trying this.

(I'm going to be rich.)

So here are a few of the stages.

1. Winning a bunch of money will change my life for the better.
2. The Martingale Progression. (I'm going to be rich)
3. I will find a progression that does work
4. Very abstract rules will make progressions work
4.5 Magical thinking will make mechanical systems work.
5. Mechanical Systems don't work. ( I'm not going to be rich )
6. The discovery of conditions might help in bet selection.
7. Bet selection alone will not work.
8. Win streak conditions are opportunities. (Effectiveness) I can be rich if I want to.

Quote from: Bally6354 on November 21, 2012, 07:52:18 PM
A lot of the so-called experts on the subject have chopped and changed their ideas around for years.

The most interesting book I read out of that lot was Fritz Perls 'Gestalt Therapy'.

That's interesting. My brother is Phillip Brownell. He knows a few things about Gestalt Therapy. My sister is a licensed Substance Abuse & Addiction therapist as well as a Family & Marriage licensed therapist. I've discussed this topic with both of them. I've already read many of the books on gambling issues. I know they are wrong.

Here is the cure. It's very simple. It takes a qualified person to use it on anyone else.

Finish the job.

The problem gambler is a person stuck in the understanding of what they are attempting to accomplish. I've seen it many times. Rather than working out this problem at home with practice tools, the problem gambler is doing research with money that they need elsewhere. They are stuck on learning what works and what does not work. In fact they can't see that they keep making the same mistake over and over. They come in, gamble for several hours, and then leave as soon as they lose their bankrolls. That includes times when they had excellent winning streaks. They always blow it.

Now understanding the (why) of it makes for interesting understanding. If the problem gambler starts winning then their life will change. So the therapists go after the better life part of this and completely forget about dealing with the real solution to the problem. In fact they brain wash them with stuff about how they can be better off without ever knowing if they could do it or not. What a rip off. What a total jip.

Yikes -" . CBT is based on the Cognitive Model of Emotional Response. Cognitive-behavioral therapy is based on the idea that our thoughts cause our feelings and behaviors, not external things, like people, situations, and events. The benefit of this fact is that we can change the way we think to feel / act better even if the situation does not change."

The idea that the treatment for problem gambling is to be in "recovery" for the rest of your life is degrading to say the least. It's a rip off too. Keeping anyone in a half done stage is almost criminal. And its legal too. Just put your brain in a box and then send me money. Hell, who's the one addicted to gambling here? It's the shrinks with their very tired out cure. Gambling is not a chemical dependency. But these magical thinking fools try very hard to justify this as exactly that. 12 steps to total humiliation. Now that cure is free. All you have to do is strip naked and apologise for all the world's ills. All I can do is laugh. There's a sucker born every minute.

This will probably strike you as odd but there are no pathological gamblers. There are no addicted gamblers. The DSM - 4 describes the condition as "problem gambler." It's a very simple issue. Not only that but all of them can grow beyond the problem gambler stage. Now ask yourself this. How much money is there in a simple and cheap cure?

This is not some opinionated anger being projected by me. I've done the work on this. It's not some more easy cynicism either. The cure is very simple. In fact the community on this subject did some excellent research on this a few years ago. They have admitted the existence of "self cure" as a solution as it is described in the DSM - 4.

Quote from: Bally6354 on November 21, 2012, 05:52:45 PM
Gizmo

I can understand why a therapist would come out and tell a pathological gambler that they can never gamble again if they want to live a life in recovery. They have to cater for the majority. What percentage of problem gamblers do you honestly think could turn things around and become successful gamblers ? (speaking of which, I have a book on this very subject where the author did try to turn a group of problem gamblers into successful players at the track... see what I did there)

I reckon the percentage is small because the actual gambling itself is only 5% of the problem for someone addicted. It is all the other sh*t that needs working on which can take years to fix which creates 95% of the problem. It's hard for people to break negative cycles in their life and problem gambling is just another one of them.

Quote from: albalaha on November 21, 2012, 04:51:29 PM
True randomness means wild scattering of numbers. It may go in your favour or entirely against you.

Absolutely true. There is no way to predict a future spin unless you attempt to use physics, as has been proven to work. Unfortunately  it is not legal to use computers.

Here's how I explained it on another thread:

"H&R is a form of magical thinking. If you want to beat roulette you must be aware of the current conditions and attack them when they are in a more advantageous state. All hit and run does is make the randomness more random.

Now if that sounds useless to you that's because it is.

If, on the other hand, you believe that more randomness makes you win more, then perhaps you should ask yourself why it should.

I prefer seeking the truth. The truth will save you more money than learning the truth will."

QuoteSelective Attention and Selective Recall: "I Only See What I Want to See" In our every day lives, we're constantly being selective about what we do or don't pay attention to. For example, we easily ignore the background music until we hear our favorite song. In gambling, it's no surprise that what attracts people's attention is winning. Winning can make such an impression that it can make people ignore or minimize their losses. Think of the gambler who tells his friends he won $100 on a slot machine, but doesn't mention that he lost more than that earlier in the day.

Quote from: albalaha on November 21, 2012, 05:01:46 PM
I feel that this is somewhat closer to fallacy.

I found the phrase "magical thinking" while studying gambling addiction books. It's  a common theme in having a retarded therapist tell an inexperienced gambler how the world of gambling works. To this point, there is not a single book on gambling issues like problem gambling, gambling addiction, etc... that deals with actually winning.

I thought a positive cure was the better approach. When will the doctors see that?

QuoteMagical thinking –- Problem gamblers may believe that thinking or hoping in a certain way will bring about a win or that random outcomes can be predicted. They may also believe they are special in some way and that their specialness will be rewarded with a win.

Superstitions –- Problem gamblers may believe that lucky charms, certain articles of clothing, ways of sitting, etc., may cause a win or a loss. 

QuoteMagical Thinking Simply stated, magical thinking refers to a mistaken belief that one thing has an influence on something else when, actually, the two things are not connected. Here's an example of magical thinking: you forget your umbrella one day and it rains, and you think that you caused the rain because you forgot your umbrella. Using selective attention, you may start to believe that it "always" rains when you forget your umbrella.

Magical thinking in gambling works in a similar way. If you win a large prize on a Tuesday, you may start to believe that Tuesday is the best day to gamble. In doing so, you're making a connection between events that are not actually related. There's no connection between times of day...

Quote from: VLS on November 21, 2012, 03:25:04 PM
I've banned myself already from his premises. Changed the password of my accounts typing whatever with my closed eyes and changed the email address to any garbage so they are fully unrecoverable.

That's how gizmotron was banned at the original VLS Roulette forum. I did myself in.

Quote from: subby on November 21, 2012, 10:46:53 AM
Nobody knows when those "not random at all" times will hit but random, by its very name and nature, is just that....random more often in its spins during the day as opposed to regulary "not random" in its spins....if that makes sense...it kind of does in my head but maybe I'm not writing it up properly lol

I don't wish to be the same old "stick in the mud" around here (but) there is no such thing as not random. Wild occurrences of strange sequences are actually common aspects of what you will see and expect to see on any Roulette wheel. I tried to tell everyone to be prepared to attack the "Elegant Pattern."

To call six numbers, found in the same area of the wheel, next to each other, all hitting in just six spins, to call this sequence of events "not random," well that's just magical thinking. The truth is that this wild action is normal. Superstitious reaction might cause a player to react to situations that are actually positive in nature. But for some reason those reactions tend to be negative for them.

When ever possible I always attack the wild and extreme possibility with as large a bet as looks practical. If I had noticed the same area of the wheel hitting three times in a row I would have bet that area strongly until it ended. And I have in the past. I see patterns like this at least one in ten sessions to the casino. They are not bad things. They are gifts of normal randomness.