Quote from: Xander on May 19, 2018, 05:21:35 PM

Gizmo,

I'm sorry, but you've buried yourself in more gambler's fallacy nonsense. 

Triggers are worthless and are often accompanied by up as you lose progressions.  If the player were flat betting then the futility of triggers in the random game becomes obvious.

I consider this some kind of Roulette bigotry. It is racist to categorize me as some kind of generalization that you project me to be representing. I don't use negative progressions. You need something from me in labeling me "more gambler's fallacy" too. I also don't see where you have made a coherent argument for any "futility of triggers." There are triggers and then there are triggers. You are some kind of neo-triggerNazi, much the same as the mathNazi's. I presume you do this, just to use your own kind of presumptions, just to embrace your own coolness. Please try to make a less group-think type of criticism, where you see yourself safe among your imaginary peers and elitists.

Quote from: Mike on May 19, 2018, 08:47:47 AM
Gizmo,

You've been posting these absurd ideas for over a decade. It's simple; in order to win consistently you need to overcome the house edge and you can't do it by guessing or "reading randomness", which is an oxymoron.

Learn basic probability, try to understand the logic of why you can't beat negative expectation games by using patterns, trends, or progressions. Break free of the fallacies and start a new life. 

This is everything in a nutshell. Visual Ballistics is a fallacy of imagined capability if applied to the modern Roulette wheel.  See. I can cast dispersion on your intellect too. You, Mike, are blinded when seeing 15 to 20 of the same sector of a section of a wheel hit in a row. Now this trend in a row can be made up of table layout groupings too. And that is the proof. The location on the wheel does not prevent coincidences from occurring where sleeping dozens occur for instance. All the trends come from an almost fair RNG that the wheel is made up of. They occur if the wheel is defective too. Suffice it to say, you can't see trends that are invitations to exploit the casino. So you claim that an all seeing Math god makes the outcome symmetrical. Randomness is not symmetry. Neither is statistical analysis of variance. You might hate my logic and even me, but I don't really care because I feel sorry for you in every way that a person can feel sorry for a lost person. I see you as the same old lost person that you see me as. Any person that quits while they are ahead is in defiance of your basic axioms. And my method of swing trading a Roulette table is "quit while you are ahead."

I agree, that was a good post by Mike. This was my answer to it and to you here:
https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/objective-or-subjective-reality-guesing-or-relying-on-mathametical-proof-etc/msg62925/#msg62925

That was hilarious!

Quote from: Dr. Mabuse on May 12, 2018, 11:01:56 PM
Gizmo,

Excellent post.

Thanks,

I've moved on from double dozens to even chances.

| B  R | O  E | L  H | 0  6 | P | S |
|    X |    X |    X | X    |   |   |  --  36 -- W  ( $ 0 )
|    X |    X |    X |    X | X | X |  --  32 -- W  ( $ 90 )
|    X | X    |    X |    X |   | X |  --  21 -- W  ( $ 180 )
| X    | X    | X    | X    |   | X |  --  13 -- L  ( $ 90 )
|    X |    X | X    |    X |   |   |  --  16 -- W  ( $ 180 )
| X    | X    |    X | X    |   | X |  --  35 -- W  ( $ 260 )
|    X |    X | X    | X    |   |   |  --  14 -- W  ( $ 340 )


I'm done with forums too.

I Found a good reason to move to 18 numbers at a time, even chance bets. I still use swing trading methods like found in the stock market. It's just less volatile.


This too. It now opens up many games, Craps, Baccarat, and even Blackjack that has no option for opposite side betting.
With Craps you have Pass and Don't pass. With Baccarat you have Player and Bank. But with Blackjack all you have is win or lose.


Example:

| B  R | O  E | L  H |    #    W/L   win total
|    X | X    | X    |    03 -- W  ( $ 90 )
| X    | X    | X    |    15 -- L  ( $ 0 )
| X    | X    | X    |    11 -- L  ( $ -90 )
| X    |    X | X    |    08 -- L  ( $ -180 )
|    X |    X | X    |    16 -- W  ( $ -90 )
|    X |    X | X    |    16 -- W  ( $ 0 )
|    X | X    |    X |    27 -- W  ( $ 90 )
| X    | X    | X    |    13 -- L  ( $ 0 )
|    X | X    |    X |    19 -- W  ( $ 90 )
| X    |    X |    X |    20 -- L  ( $ 0 )
|    X |    X | X    |    14 -- W  ( $ 90 )
| X    |    X |    X |    26 -- L  ( $ 0 )
| X    | X    |    X |    33 -- L  ( $ -90 )
| X    |    X | X    |    02 -- L  ( $ -180 )
|    X |    X |    X |    36 -- W  ( $ -90 )
|    X |    X |    X |    34 -- W  ( $ 0 )
|    X | X    | X    |    07 -- W  ( $ 90 )
| X    | X    |    X |    31 -- L  ( $ 0 )
| X    |    X | X    |    02 -- L  ( $ -90 )
|    X | X    | X    |    09 -- W  ( $ 0 )
|    X | X    | X    |    01 -- W  ( $ 90 )
|    X | X    | X    |    05 -- W  ( $ 180 )
| X    | X    |    X |    31 -- L  ( $ 90 )
|    X | X    |    X |    23 -- W  ( $ 180 )
|    X |    X |    X |    32 -- W  ( $ 270 )
|    X | X    |    X |    23 -- W  ( $ 360 )
|    X | X    |    X |    25 -- W  ( $ 450 )
| X    | X    | X    |    13 -- L  ( $ 360 )
|    X |    X |    X |    32 -- W  ( $ 450 )
|    X |    X |    X |    36 -- W  ( $ 540 )
|    X | X    |    X |    21 -- W  ( $ 630 )
|    X | X    |    X |    25 -- W  ( $ 720 )
|    X | X    |    X |    27 -- W  ( $ 810 )
|--------------------|      38 -- L  ( $ 720 )

Example uses $5 chips for a total of $90 per bet.

B R column = Black Red bumbers
O E column = Odd Even numbers
L H column = Low High 18

Many of you that have watched late night info ads have seen courses offered for training Stock Market trading. Because of that you have heard of "sideways markets" and profiting from "declining markets." A good example would be watching the yearly roll out of new products from Apple Computer Inc. The street experts always tell the lemmings that expectations for the coming year will suffer on the prospects of the new product coming out. Every year they do that, the opposite is the real result. But the stock tanks for a quarter and part of the next one before turning around on the real earnings data. You can short the market every time they pull this legal trading / insider trading fake news report. And you probably should. If you just look up the historical data on the forced decline caused by the traders being suckered every year in the market, you will see this trend.


Which comes to this. I'm sharing this because I believe that you can see a very steep decline in the results of your guessing that is a temporary condition. If that is detected you can short the Roulette table on a losing streak. You can even leverage the condition.


If you see something like ww L w L www L w L w LLL ww LL w L ww LLLLL w L  you are seeing sideways turn into downturn. It's a strong losing streak. So if you use the very same guessing method, and it swings into a steep dive, you can swing trade on it and "short" the Roulette table. The way you do it is to keep making your guesses based on your trends to keep going, in your head. Even though you know that when you bet on 24 numbers you get paid back 12 when you win, you can bet on that guess to lose by betting just 12 on the 13 or 14 numbers that you were not on, the reverse of your guess.


If there is an opportunity to leverage this condition then you can make out good on that too. If you bet $100 for the short side, the natural opposite of your 24 numbers to win, then you get paid back twice as much for half the investment, in other words your $100 has grown to $300. Now to leverage that you would need to follow a seen pattern or a dominance of losing bets found in observed streaks of your normal 24 numbered bets. You make the same 24 selection in your head but you put all $300 on the opposite to win instead. If you can short the table for just two bets your $100 grows to $900 that equals out to be a $800 gain.


I know you can swing trade the table if you know the indicators and you can play the real trend line, the results trend. I said years ago that you could use any consistent bet selection method to establish your win/loss results from. That still stands. You just need to be consistent on the method in order to play both sides of the table market. It takes brains, just like the stock market takes brains. Some people are more analytical than others. Some people are born to be bean counters and others are born to be artists or ditch diggers. You can change yourself if you are willing to do the work needed. BTW, a word of warning, there are addicted traders in the market too.

bye-bye 

Goodbye. It's not worth it to tell people what works or not. I mean why? There are only a few of us that have real experience. I don't need other ideas. I know the secret to randomness. There is no point in giving that away. The very best reward is in figuring it out for yourselves. So figure it out for yourselves. ... whew! 12 years of arguing. I don't need this anymore.

Quote from: varmenti on April 12, 2018, 08:15:35 PM
Hello? Are you sure about that?

This might fit here: "This is something that someone tried to pass off as real. He said "...but the beginning and the end of a trend is known afterwards." That's a true statement but is not the whole objective truth. The fact is I base all my bet selection options on the middle of a trend, while it is occurring. On each spin I have a 63% chance to win as it is an independent event. Those are the real odds before I get the results. The trend or the very fact that a trend is not occurring are only excuses to make bet selections from. The trend does not make the win/loss, the good/bad streaks occur. Making bets, irregardless of them being good bets or bad bets creates the win/loss record. I just happen to know that I get less back to back losses if I keep track of the randomness characteristics as opposed to just blind guessing. If I take my mind off of the search for trends I get very few win streaks. But that does not matter anyway. The mathBoyz like to think that nobody has control over what happens. I can beat this game with any bet selection technique as long as I keep track of the wL lists. I could just bet on the numbers 1 thru 24 only and make a winning system out of the candlesticks it would produce in a graph. I know when I'm in the middle of a streak. On the next spin I can tell if I'm still in the middle or in fact that the streak ended. Not all streaks end the same too. There are things like domination that are peppered with few losses while still being winning streaks. So it's smart to acknowledge that there are also middles to streaks. It's possible to live in the middle. In my game guesses only have a 37% chance of ending on each independent event. "

QuoteIf you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, it's just possible you haven't grasped the situation. Jean Kerr

Quote


If; BY RUDYARD KIPLING



If you can keep your head when all about you   

    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

    But make allowance for their doubting too;   

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,

    Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,

Or being hated, don't give way to hating,

    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:



If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;   

    If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;   

If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster

    And treat those two impostors just the same;   

If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken

    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,

Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,

    And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:



If you can make one heap of all your winnings

    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings

    And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew

    To serve your turn long after they are gone,   

And so hold on when there is nothing in you

    Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'



If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,   

    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,

If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,

    If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute

    With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,   

Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,   

    And—which is more—you'll be a Man, my son!

Look at the top 10 spins and a few more after that in the chart above, where the betting starts. Look what is happening to the 1,2,3's. I hunt singles and I hunt sleepers. They both are happening at once. Sleepers are blank spots in the charts as you look down a grouping's column in the chart. You can also see streaks of repeats in patches. You can't have a streak of singles if that section's column is peppered all over with repeats. Now look at the charts for patterns like wave impulses of harmonic repetition. You can murder the casino during a perfect repeating pattern that lasts a while.


If you study Roulette this way you will see miracles form before your eyes. You will see a formation of some kind or type that will last for 30 spins in a row, perfectly executed. You will also see a repetition of a characteristic type that will occur all across the chart in different locations, not just in one grouping. If you see that you will be seeing the global effect. I've seen a global effect last for 4 1/2 hours once. It's free money if you are smart enough and trained well enough to grab it. Now in all that you must also have self control. You must have playing experience so that you don't dig deep holes. You must know what a bad effectiveness state can do to your session. It's a well thought out skill that can be acquired through hard work. It's like being good at being a musician. You need to learn how to read the music of Roulette. I've created the blank charts, the notes, the instruments, and the time signature and the key. It's time for others to come up with the hits.

It's right there at the top of the chart.

| 1  2  3 | A  B  C | 0  3  6 | P |
| X       |    X    | X       | P | -- 2
| X       | X       |    X    |   | -- 7
|       X | X       |       X |   | -- 34
| X       |    X    |    X    | P | -- 11
|    X    | X       | X       |   | -- 13
|-------------------| X       | P | -- 37
|    X    | X       |       X |   | -- 22
|       X |    X    | X       |   | -- 35
|    X    |    X    |       X | P | -- 17
|       X |       X |       X |   | -- 33 -- (2 & 3 to win next) @ 3
|    X    |       X |       X | P |  # 18 -- Won -- 36 -- (Not Prime 22 to win next) @ 3

1 = 1 to 12 on the table layout
2 = 13 to 24 ottl
3 = 25 to 36 ottl

A = 1 to 34 ottl, the column
B = 2 to 35 ottl, the column
C = 3 to 36 ottl, the column

The rest of the stuff in the chart is my own personal pet groupings. They are all based on the wheel in sections like spokes.

So in that first bet I put 12 units at 3 each on all 12 numbers of the second and third groups, 13 to 24, and 25 to 36. You can see on the next spin that 36 hit. So that is how it won. It paid off 36 units.

Here are the missing groups:


0 = "38,37,1,2,9,10,13,14,25,26,27,28,35,36,"
3 = "3,4,7,8,11,12,15,16,23,24,29,30,"
6 = "5,6,17,18,19,20,21,22,31,32,33,34,"


P = "1,2,3,4,5,6,11,12,17,18,27,28,31,32,37,38,"
Not P = "7,8,9,10,13,14,15,16,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,29,30,33,34,35,36"

Ted, each next-bet is posted after the previous results are posted on the same line, at which point the software waits for you to select the next numbers to win. I built the software for my students that allows all of those students to just press a single button from 11, and the next (24*) numbers to win are selected. The user then presses the "Spin" button and the next results are charted and their "won" or "lost" status and the current running total are also displayed. This way the user can just focus quickly on guessing. My method is just guessing. There's no secret formula or system.


I'm good at guessing because I created structure in the form of the illusion of randomness characteristics. I gave them names too. Some people will argue that they are real characteristics and others will argue that they can't exist. They are nothing but mindfully associated formations that are used to identify sequences of continuous spin conditions. But it's still just guessing. The good news for you is that these visual formations in my charts are also attached to reality if you use them during a gambling session. They become reality in their display of effectiveness during a gambling session. What happens in a gambling session is either good for you, flat, or bad for you. So what you practice for is in seeing the different phases, in real time, and taking action to improve your over all session results.


* there is a button to invert the bet so that the meaning of the button selection has the opting to go from what is going to lose (14) numbers to what will win (12) numbers. So the software can bet on 12, 14, 16, 24, or 26 numbers to win, all with a convenient button push.


It's all here at this forum. You can learn about the characteristics, the global effect, the effectiveness states, and the Elegant Patterns. I have shared it all. The software is too big to load here and to share it. I could share the source code in its native language and you could get the free Open Source development tool that supports it. But you would have to learn how to launch and run the development software to do that. The stand alone version is 8.5 megabytes. The source code version is 76 kb. The source code version will load into the free open source version of LiveCode. I don't want to teach how this is done. There are tutorials about using the development platform online. Perhaps there is a way to make a skinny version. I didn't bother to look that up.


Anyway, you can't use a computer in a casino. So I do it all on index cards. The chart, without the win/loss results, like the first non bet ten spins, are what you enter on index cards. You would need to get good at that anyway.


Hope that helps.

Rust never sleeps. Glen and others have suggested to me over the past 6 months that my "three and out" method was not really realistic. Perhaps it is unrealistic.

"I gave up on hot numbers years ago for a reason. I wanted faster action. But I also wanted the massive kill off the casino with a super win streak and was willing to descend deep in order to reach that killer sequence. That has been my Achilles Heel for the past decade. But I recognize that as a strategic flaw. What cured me was to practice just winning three net wins and out. Now, I really do know how to kill off the casino in a huge and obvious win streak. So today I'm going to play at least one long session of practice just to prove that I can stay out of the deep holes while grinding away at steady upward advances. It's like fighting for each net win, as long as the deep holes are avoided.

Ken's (mrJ) method teaches how to get off the cold numbers and come back to them if they heat back up. So that is how I'm going to do it with my 24 numbers. I sometimes reverse the bets and bet the 12 instead. And sometimes I bet 16, 22, or 26 numbers. It's just the way that I trained myself over the past decade. That's what I'm good at. But this thread taught me to get off the cold spots faster. It was and is not a waste of time for me. Here is today's practice session:"

As you can see below, I keep going as long as a huge downturn does not appear.

| 1  2  3 | A  B  C | 0  3  6 | P |
| X       |    X    | X       | P | -- 2
| X       | X       |    X    |   | -- 7
|       X | X       |       X |   | -- 34
| X       |    X    |    X    | P | -- 11
|    X    | X       | X       |   | -- 13
|-------------------| X       | P | -- 37
|    X    | X       |       X |   | -- 22
|       X |    X    | X       |   | -- 35
|    X    |    X    |       X | P | -- 17
|       X |       X |       X |   | -- 33 -- (2 & 3 to win next) @ 3
|    X    |       X |       X | P |  # 18 -- Won -- 36 -- (Not Prime 22 to win next) @ 3
|    X    |       X |       X |   |  # 21 -- Won -- 78 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 3
|       X |    X    | X       |   |  # 26 -- Won -- 114 -- (2 & 3 to win next) @ 3
|       X | X       |       X | P |  # 31 -- Won -- 150 -- (Not Prime 22 to win next) @ 3
|       X |    X    | X       |   |  # 35 -- Won -- 192 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 3
| X       | X       | X       | P |  # 1 -- Lost  -- 120 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 3
|       X |    X    |    X    |   |  # 29 -- Won -- 156 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 3
|    X    | X       | X       |   |  # 13 -- Won -- 192 -- (Prime 16 to win next) @ 3
|       X |       X |    X    |   |  # 30 -- Lost  -- 144 -- (Prime 16 to win next) @ 3
|       X |    X    |       X | P |  # 32 -- Won -- 204 -- (Not Prime 22 to win next) @ 3
| X       | X       |    X    |   |  # 7 -- Won -- 246 -- (2 & 3 to win next) @ 3
| X       |       X |       X | P |  # 6 -- Lost  -- 174 -- (Not Prime 22 to win next) @ 4
| X       | X       | X       |   |  # 10 -- Won -- 230 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 4
| X       |       X | X       |   |  # 9 -- Won -- 278 -- ( 0's & 3's to win next)
|       X |       X |    X    |   |  # 30 -- Won -- 318 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 4
|    X    |    X    |       X |   |  # 20 -- Lost  -- 222 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 4
|    X    |       X |    X    |   |  # 24 -- Lost  -- 126 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 4
| X       |       X |       X | P |  # 6 -- Won -- 174 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 4
|    X    | X       |       X |   |  # 19 -- Won -- 222 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 4
|       X | X       | X       | P |  # 28 -- Lost  -- 126 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 4
| X       |    X    | X       | P |  # 2 -- Won -- 174 -- (2 & 3 to win next) @ 4
|       X |    X    | X       |   |  # 26 -- Won -- 222 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 4
|       X | X       |       X | P |  # 31 -- Lost  -- 126 -- ( 3's & 6's to win next) @ 4
|    X    |    X    |       X |   |  # 20 -- Won -- 174 -- (Not Prime 22 to win next) @ 4
| X       |       X | X       |   |  # 9 -- Won -- 230 -- (2 & 3 to win next) @ 4
|       X | X       | X       | P |  # 28 -- Won -- 278 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 4
|    X    | X       |       X |   |  # 22 -- Won -- 326 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 5
| X       | X       |    X    |   |  # 7 -- Won -- 386 -- ( 3's & 6's to win next) @ 5
| X       |    X    |       X | P |  # 5 -- Won -- 446 -- ( 3's & 6's to win next) @ 5
|       X |       X | X       |   |  # 36 -- Lost  -- 326 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 5
| X       |    X    |    X    | P |  # 11 -- Won -- 386 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 5
|       X |    X    |       X | P |  # 32 -- Won -- 446 -- (Not Prime 22 to win next) @ 5
|    X    | X       | X       |   |  # 13 -- Won -- 516 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 5
|       X |       X | X       |   |  # 36 -- Won -- 576