Of course I found this particular article very interesting. Now try to wrap your head around when Runs & Gaps flow in swarms and not just observable as statistical averages. I assure you that these characteristics occur often too.

It's interesting to watch people show off their intelligence. You can always tell who the captives are.

Here is a test for you. Have you noticed that everywhere Ivanka is questioned by the media that she is always asked how her father treats women? And wherever Chelsea Clinton is interviewed by the news media she is never asked how her father treats women.

The test is to determine what normal people find as acceptable treatment of others. Liberals think that they are normal and mainstream critical thinkers and that conservatives are fringe and out there thinkers. Once that perception of reality is established, confirmation bias becomes the rational basis for everything that is to follow. Most people never bother to look at the origins of their own perceptions until they grow tired of the same old rut they exist in.

It's fun to watch uninformed voters making their first steps into political activism.

Cool, Ken is around.

Over the past three years of play I'm often been tempted to bet one number that is firing fire-hot at a time. They run a five or six hits hot streak and then most of the time they drop off that super hot pace.

Based on 300 spins, a hot number needs to hit 9 times to break even. Hot numbers hit from 14 to 22 times in 300 spins. I know this because my first research into randomness was tracking the three hottest numbers from 300 spin cycles. I started that research back in 1995. I've seen a hot number hit 28 times once. That's three times the break even point.

Here is what often happens. The super white hot, hottest number, is often also one of the three hottest numbers in a 300 spin cycle. That's a reference to recognition of the best three and nothing more.

When you start to think in terms of 10 to 12 hours on a live wheel of play as a session then now you are ready for hottest number play.

my 2 cents

Quote from: Blue_Angel on July 26, 2016, 06:38:03 PM
Why to begin with 28 + 28 units?

In a double dozen bet ( 24) numbers the payoff is 1 to 2, example 28 & 28 wins only 28, but loses 56.

So on the first win at 28 on each 12 numbers (doz/col) you win 28.

Take that 28 and split it for 14 & 14 each on your next 2 dozens or 2 columns.

Those next 6 spins are a free ride while taking a little as you go.

It's the same kind of a choice you made for your first step on those 50/50 progression bets you started with at the top of this thread.

I've been using this type of a positive progression for years. It's posted somewhere around here. The idea of letting it ride, just not all of it as you go, is a good way to go.

You could start with 24 & 24 or 12 & 12, I just suggest that you start with any number that splits to an even number. It could be 28 nickels, 28 $25 chips, or even 12 $100 chips. I'm just showing you how to apply this logic to double dozen bets.

You like these kinds of things?

Here is a house-of-cards positive styled progression where you can reap as go.

Double Dozens/Columns Bets:

1.) 28 -- 28  (after win take off 28 (14 + 14) and let it ride)

2.) 14 -- 14  (after win take off 6) +6

3.) 36 -- 36  (after win take off 9) +15

4.) 45 -- 45  (after win take off 18) +33

5.) 50 -- 50  (after win take off 35) +68

6.) 40 -- 40  (after win take off 70) +138

7.) 35 -- 35  (after win take off 105) +243

You have 61% or 64% chance of winning that first bet, respectively

It's easy to find a streak of singles or a sleeping dozen streak in the double dozen/column bets.

Quote from: MarkTeruya on July 22, 2016, 10:34:05 PM
I don't recall which forum I posted it on and I doubt I would find it again. 

Some brain study was done on habitual gamblers in the UK, it was discovered they actually get a bigger buzz (endorphin ect) from losing a bet than winning a bet.  Yes that sounds crazy, the article was pretty conclusive. 

Thanks for that read, I know one or two I can pass that on to

That's fascinating. The gamblers that have "Magical Beliefs," superstitions and fantasies that a win is due, "Gamblers Fallacy," are already preprogramed to expect the win rush. My experience is that these studies are being done only to average gamblers that have displayed problems. I want to use "Stupid" or "Idiots" to describe the inexperienced gambler that falls into these difficulties but even the aspiring professional gamblers must deal with the bio chemistry going in them. It's just that the uninformed or inexperienced gambler has very little chance going up against their own body chemistry.

Quote from: Albalaha on July 22, 2016, 02:41:44 AM
Answer: Yes, definitely. ("you need to be a clairvoyant")You can only talk about the streak's length after it has passed. If you are at WWW, you can not say with any precision that it will last here with WWWL or go WWWWWWWW or WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW. Can you? Answer: No. That needs clairvoyant capabilities.

I answer No because it's impossible for me to know what's next.

This is why I don't need to know. It only takes two winning bets to go on a free ride up the chain of future spins. I know that after one win at 61% in my favor for each spin, (American Wheel,) I only risk at a 50/50 paying bet on the second try. So if the trend ends, WWWL at the first try, and I lose both unit bets then I'm down 2 units. I'm used to losing bets like that all the time. It just means that I'm not in the perfect phase of effectiveness for a win streak. Every loss is an indicator of the current conditions. You can't take the casino on a ride like: "WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW" unless you speculate on it at some point. I keep to myself when I do that. I learned something new this year and I love it. I got it from Spike years ago and never knew it until recently. In a way, it's published somewhere he has posted. That's good enough for me.

Here it is:

QuoteYou have to focus on three primary fronts;

1 - Money (do not become too focused on short term financial goals than long term playing)
2 - Psychology of gambling, place strict time limits on your sessions, learn to read yourself, emotionally, energy levels, what kind of day are you having?

3 - Monitor the casino, they have a job to do, which is to painlessly take your money. There is no limit which some casino's will stoop to achieve this. You must learn to duck, dive, bob and weave to avoid the particular manoeuvres which will be use against you, in particular against the winning player.

It can take a lifetime to learn to deal with these three fronts, only when you learn to deal with these aspects can you realistically move forward, alternatively you resign yourselves to a lifetime of research.

The SIGNIFICANCE OF TIME. Time is the friend of the casino and enemy of the gambler. Failure to take this critical element into consideration when setting the parameters of intelligent play spells the downfall of even the most accomplished players. One of the reason why you do not see clocks on a casino.

Quote from one former table games manager, "Give me any player at any level who is willing to simply give us at least 4 hours of play, if they do that, they will have the occasional winning days, but in the end we will own them". Simply put, the longer players play, the more likely they will be losers.

Usually casino personal reason the longer the gambler plays, the longer he will be exposed to the house edge. However this is not the underling reason that the casino want you to play longer. We not being machines, as such each minute we spend gambling diminishes our ability to make rational decisions, even if we abstain from alcohol.

The impact of sitting and making hand and hand decisions is more draining than the most experienced gamblers realize, the casino are counting on your ignorance of this fact. You can get some fast action on the min-bacc tables, I refer to it as the 70/60 rule. You have 70 decisions to make per 60 minutes, if the table is not to crowded.

This vulnerability is shown by the fact demonstrated by the cumulative effects of playing a mere 4 hours per day. After several days the nerves become frazzled and ones temper short. Such activity removes the 'fun and the play' of gambling. It is the equivalent to working a 12 hour shift, the reason being for this accelerated fatigue is tied to the tremendous increase in auditory and visual stimuli which the gambler is bombarded with. Being able to withstand the emotional highs and lows, places a tremendous strain on the gamblers concentration capabilities.

In the comfort of ones home the player can map and work out various playing strategies on how they will manage money and decisions. After 4 hours their carefully manufactured plans should be compared with plans which our nerves and senses have been bombarded for an extended period of time. Similar to having somebody constantly chatter in our ears, a rollercoaster of adrenaline levels, plus we are expected to make a big picture decision regarding our playing decision's. Often in these situations bad choices are made by the smartest of gamblers. This relates back to TIME.

The only way to be certain to avoid the effects that the mind numbing torture of spending time in a casino, is simply to spend as little time as possible, accomplish modest goals you have set for your play, then LEAVE THE CASINO, or at least do something not related to gambling, have a meal, enjoy a show.

Develop the correct attitude towards your gambling; a WINNING attitude. The same type of winning attitude and profound patience which the casino demonstrates towards its customers. Their attitude stems not only from the built-in house advantages, but also from the methods of handling customers which are designed to minimise the gamblers effectiveness and therefore maximise the casino's profits.

When you win, are you a loser who has previously gotten lucky, or a winner doing what your normally do. The flip side of this is; when you lose, are you a loser doing what you do best, or a winner who ran into a bad shoe. A positive attitude will in time, come from the knowledge that your winning sessions occur more often than your losing sessions, learn to walk from losing sessions.

Ask yourself do you want to WIN more than you want to simply PLAY. Adhere to a WIN GOAL and stick to a LOSS LIMIT. Do not feel compelled to keep on gambling due to greed or that you simply want to play more. Also be mindful of the significance of time spent at the tables. If you haven't reached your WIN GOAL but have reached your allotted session time, WALK.

Do not ignore the expectations of both casino staff and other players when playing your game. Now you are starting to think like a genuine winner. This means having real long term confidence in what you are doing and letting it show in the way you bet, (sticking to the advanced plan of your betting as well as your limits on amount of play per day-said limits being based in the knowledge of nervous energy that playing can demand). Have the confidence which is demonstrated by the casino personnel when they state "he's been lucky, but his luck will turn then we get all of ours back".

Play with CONFIDENCE - ever witnessed the gambler who winces at each card that is drawn from the shoe. If you can't laugh at the casino's hand both before it comes out and after it comes out, even if it's a losing hand, then you shouldn't be playing. A winning system in the wrong hands is liken to teaching somebody to play soccer, then expecting them to play a game against Chelsea. To become a rock solid gambler, is similar to playing a good game of soccer with it's many skills (dribbling, passing, shooting and generally out foxing your opponent and learning to play with confidence). Could you imagine Dida Drogba or Crespo being afraid to take a shot because they might miss. Confident sportsmen are confident because they know they will achieve success most of the time they make an attempt, they also learn to listen to that little voice that tells them not to take a certain shot if they don't feel comfortable with it.

It's exactly the same with gamblers, you have to manage yourself and your time at the tables so that you are not to fatigued to hear "the voice" or tell you "time is up" We all do stupid things at the tables when we play too long. A brilliant way to handle this is to play with a MONEY ONLY FOCUS. This means playing each shoe ONLY until you achieve a modest goal target. Then quit the table. If you are up in the shoe and lose this back, you should consider quitting the table, basically it's all about learning to love winning MORE than you love playing.

Using these mind sets regarding THE MONEY aspect of your play, and doing so over an extended period of time, will do more to increase your maturity as a gambler and self confidence. In the process you will learn to WIN.

Other ways a positive attitude will impact your play. For example how long you play and how often, the circumstances under which you are willing to play, as well as how easily you laugh off a losing session are all going to be affected by the wisdom based experience you accumulate over time. Your confidence will come from 'knowing' your opponents and knowing what can be expected from them. Your opponents are; The Casino, The Game, and Yourself.

The greed factor (gets them every time). There is moral in Aesop's fable, which the story regarding the dog who is carrying the bone walks by a deep lake, sees another dog with a bone in his mouth, and wants the bigger bone. You know the rest.

Value your small wins, they will add up to huge wins eventually. Further realize the any losing session is as much a part of having winning sessions, as occasionally not catching a fish is a integral part of being a fisherman. Always know that when you gamble, you are taking on a machine that does not require rest or special circumstances to beat most gamblers to a penniless pulp. Respect the talents of those in the casino industry, for they are professional in what they do.

Leave the credit cards at home - while we can make sound play and money management plan while we sit with a clear head at home. In a casino environment, even if we are making good profits, after time a person's frazzled brain causes them to do something foolish which sees them return profits to the house. The problem with accessing more funds is that by this time most players are so far gone mentally (regarding self discipline), that access to further funds is the worst possible thing do to at this time., when the gambler is both tried and mad.

To avert further disaster, you need to play like a machine, with time limits, betting amounts preset and adhere to. Learn to laugh off any set-backs one encounters while playing. While you are in control and disciplined, only play when you are fresh, then you can play with confidence.

Once you have stared into the blades of the "the money shredder" a few times, also known as a casino. One has a tendency to be less than calm and collected when re-encountering those money shredding blades.

Basic principals which we should adhere too;
Be familiar with the play of the approach you intent to use. This means not being surprised when you encounter those flat playing sessions which find you on the losing end. No matter how wonderful the strategy, these occasional flat sessions are waiting for you.

Practice your play method on the low stakes tables, to achieve the knowledgeable viewpoint above. Do this until you are comfortable with your new playing approach and you feel you have seen all possibilities of your play approach has to offer.

Don't play with money that you can't afford to lose, not because you should expect to lose, rather when you gamble above your comfort level your "Play Judgement' becomes flawed and you are prone to making errors, remember the old saying 'scared money doesn't win"..

I leave you with a final thought. ALWAYS employ STOP POINTS, this is essential to EVERY regular gamblers arsenal of mental weapons. The weapon is used no matter what approach to play is being used. The important thing which winning gamblers learn, is to limit the damage potential to one's bankroll in bad situations and gain the most financial benefit from the good situations when they come along. Regrettably most gamblers are not winning gamblers, they tend to win small, then when they lose, lose big. This is even the case when they use the very best of play approaches.

Learn to think and play like a winner, being unable to control your mind-set is destine for failure.


Above is extracted and changed slightly to avoid any copyright infringement. from the only chapter that makes any sense and which is the introduction of some fanciful translation type of method, currently being sold for a few thousand dollars, think of a number between 2 and 4. While you are thinking of numbers, this method is reliant on recording of these, only the winning scores that is!!

From the thread: Gambling Psychology

I thought it should be here too.

Quote from: MarkTeruya on July 22, 2016, 08:14:44 PM
Here you go Gizmotron

Gambling Psychology -
Learning proper playing strategies and sound money management principles is only part of a successful casino gambler's game plan. Having a proper playing attitude is just as important.

The typical attitude of losing gamblers is something like this: They always go to the casinos to have fun and of course, they always expect to lose. They experience an emotional high when playing and are invariably swept up in the exciting casino atmosphere. They always feel obligated to take the free drinks offered by the casino as a way of getting even for their losses. And, of course, when they lose, they always blame it on rotten luck, or poor cards, but the consolation for their losing is "well, I had a good time anyway," attitude.

Keep this thought in mind next time you go to a casino to have some fun. First, when you enter a casino, you are entering a place of business. And like all successful businesses, the casinos are operated by shrewd businessmen whose job is firstly, to keep you playing and happy and secondly, to separate you from your money as quickly and painlessly as possible. To meet these objectives, they create an atmosphere in the casino that can be described as a "Disneyland for adults." No clocks to let you know it's time to leave this utopia, no windows to let you see out to the real world, free drinks at the tables, free lounge shows and plenty of pretty girls to keep you happy and playing.

And what happens to the average gambler when he/she enters this casino designed excitement? For him/her, the rewards of winning all of the casino's money far outweigh the risks of losing his meager hundred dollar bankroll. And this exciting atmosphere also makes it so easy for the average player to feel lucky and go for broke at the chance of winning that jackpot.

First and foremost, in order to be a winner, you must learn to control your emotions in the casino. The real struggle when you are playing is, in most cases, not between you and the casino, but between you and yourself. You will find plenty of temptations to keep you playing and losing, therefore, you must learn to develop a sense of timing or awareness of when to play and, more importantly, when to quit.

In short, you must develop the proper playing attitudes to overcome the psychological barriers created by the casinos to keep you losing and to make it difficult for you to leave the tables with a profit. For example, go to the casinos expecting to win (rather than lose). Granted, there are no guarantees that you will win, but likewise there is no guarantee that you have to lose. Always prepare yourself for those inevitable losing sessions. No matter how skilfully you play, sometimes everything will go wrong. Will you quit and call it a day or will you be like most gamblers and dig in for more cash, hoping the tide will turn? And how many gamblers have the attitude that a small profit is better than no profit or a loss? Not many.

Above all, learn to develop a sense of timing for when to play and when to quit. Playing blackjack, for example, if you are tired or have been drinking will cost you dearly.

These attitudes are not always natural. Most of them take an amount of work before you can feel comfortable playing with discipline. But if you develop these proper playing attitudes and learn proper playing and money management strategies, you will be able to enjoy the fun and excitement of casino gambling with a minimum risk at your bankroll. Isn't it worth the effort?

Player or Banker?

"Your primary battle is with yourself, as this battle permeates all aspects of your play, and proper self-management --as one might be managed by a coach on the sidelines is critical."

"You are wrong when you say that the casino deserves no respect as an opponent. These people know more about the psyche of the gambler than is ever published in any psychology book, and they are more than willing to use this information in any way they can to trip up the winning player."

"As a player, you have 3 fronts to watch: monitoring yourself, monitoring the game, and monitoring the casino as it reacts to your play of the game. Repeated lessons in each of these areas teach one to , value playing when you are not stressed ("by anything" including your level of play), not emotionally upset, and well rested, and to understand that NO APPROACH to play wins in every situation EVEN ONE WHICH DELIVERS A verifiable WIN BIAS-- and when you encounter those bad shoes, one must learn to "take their lumps" like a big boy or girl, and walk away a temporary "LOSER". In this regard, playing at, NOT ABOVE one's comfort level is the mark of a confident player, sticking more money out in front of you when you are losing, is the act of a scared person, NOT A WINNER."
http://www.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=230&forum=Baccarat_Message_Board

Thank you for your contribution.

Here is an interesting webpage, a tell tale sign:
http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/19/your_brain_on_gambling/

If anyone changes, just walking in the door of a casino, then they have staying in their logical mind issues.

"At first, the neurons don't get excited until the juice is delivered. The cells are reacting to the actual reward. However, once the animal learns that the light always precedes the arrival of juice, the same neurons begin firing at the sight of the light instead of the reward. Schultz calls these cells "prediction neurons," since they are more interested in predicting rewards than in the rewards themselves."

"The frontal lobe literally shuts down," said psychologist Heather Chapman, who directs the Brecksville VA Medical Center's gambling treatment program. The pre-frontal cortex "is like the mom or dad of the brain. It helps us make good decisions -- you've had enough; it's time to go home."

Inspired by this post:

Quote from: Bacchus on July 22, 2016, 01:11:32 PM

•   Mental, Emotional and Physical preparation. – This is the 1st question I ask myself before I start any session, I have to be honest and know myself if I'm worried, tired or stressed for the day.

Did you know that you can biochemically leave the logic center of your mind behind? Most gamblers do it all the time.

"... , norepinephrine is discharged under stress, arousal, or thrill, so some gamblers gamble to make up for their under dosage."

"there was an experiment constructed where test subjects were presented with situations where they could win, lose or break even in a casino-like environment. Subjects' reactions were measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), a neuron-imaging device similar to a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). And according to Hans Breiter, MD, co-director of the motivation and Emotion Neuroscience Centre at the Massachusetts General Hospital, "Monetary reward in a gambling-like experiment produces brain activation very similar to that observed in a cocaine addict receiving an infusion of cocaine."

"A complex system of neurotransmitters, such as serotonin, dopamine, endogenous opioids and hormones, are responsible for what we feel, how we think and what we do. Imbalances within this system have been shown to influence behavior."

"Dopamine Individuals with impulse control or substance use disorders have shown alterations within the dopaminergic pathways, causing them to seek rewards (i.e., gambling or drugs) that trigger dopamine release and result in feelings of pleasure, which reinforces the problematic behaviors. One mechanism of addiction, proposed by Kenneth Blum and colleagues, is "reward deficiency syndrome," a state of chemical imbalance involving multiple genes that causes an individual to crave environmental stimuli to compensate for the inherent imbalance, regardless of the consequences (Blum et al., 1996)."

-------


It takes deliberate effort to stay in the logical center of your mind. Look it up.

Quote from: XXVV on July 14, 2016, 03:52:53 AM
The bet I am in the process of adapting from Martin Blakey is the MB16 which targets four corners.

Your explanation is a great example of pragmatism based on current state observation.

Here's an opportunity for you. When a column and a dozen both sleep at the same time you have an occurrence of the same 16 numbers hitting while the situation continues. You can place 4 corner bets or 8 split bets to cover these 16 numbers.

Quote from: Albalaha on July 14, 2016, 04:22:56 AM
Hmm, so you can tell that you are in the middle of a favorable randomness characteristic? If I see WWWWW, I can't say whether I am in middle or end and if you can say so, you are a clairvoyant and nothing less. We can only do reverse engineering and think oh! this should have been handled in that manner after a session gets over. Randomness means unpredictibility and that remains absolute in short run. An estimation can be done only of numbers of wins and losses in enough long span. For example, one can say that getting only 50 wins in 200 spins of an EC is not possible or too remote to happen ever realistically.

Thank you for clarifying your position.

Let's see if anything you suggest is true.

1.) Do I need to be a clairvoyant to know that I'm in the middle of a common win streak? (Answer) No

2.) Do you need me to be claiming to be a clairvoyant to assert my position. (Answer) Probably Yes

3.) Does : "Randomness means unpredictability[sp] and that remains absolute in short run." mean that you can't observe an occurring trend of some kind? (Answer) No. You don't need to see the future to be able to observe the current sate. You don't have to take the advice of anyone that says you have to see the future in order to win off an occuriring future coincidence.

Are Mathboys Narcissistic control freaks? (Answer) Yes

Answer me this please? What is approximately a common number of spins that a win streak in sleeping dozens occur every 100 to 200 spins? To clarify, how many repeats of a single sleeping dozen or column occur , example 10 in a row? Did you know that in the phenomenon of the Elegant Pattern a sleeping dozen can sleep for more than 30 spins in a row? You can validate this for yourself if you want. It would be a shame to pass up an opportunity like that. You are preprogrammed to pass on opportunities like that and to tell others why it's so great to do so.

Leaving you in your state of mind is both kind and necessary.

Quote from: Albalaha on July 14, 2016, 02:14:20 AM
There is no method to guess that it is going to be a streak.

True enough. There is no magic trick that determines the future. But you can tell when you are in the middle of a favorable randomness characteristic. If you can't do that, then you must be blind to the awareness of these favorable conditions. So what is it? Are you blind, having never looked at the current state of conditions, or are you never going to look at it unless there is something that must predict the future? All of the math oriented players for the past ten years say the same thing. It is impossible to see future events. Big deal. It's like claiming you must know the shoe size of the dealer and be left handed wearing a cowboy hat with a pink feather in it before you can know the future. If you put anything in your way that keeps you from seeing the current state of conditions then you are only fooling yourself. In that case I would recommend a cowboy hat with a pink feather in it.

Advantage players in the game of 21 know when they are in favorable conditions by checking for them. You have to look for opportunity in order to take advantage of it. The same goes true for randomness. They call it Variable Change in 21. I call my theory Coincidental Change for randomness. In the world of economics they call it a Coincidental Indicator. In all this, someone is looking for opportunities.

Quote from: TheLaw on July 04, 2016, 03:10:54 AM
I've included 3 different W/L records below played on 2 dozens (w=+1 L+-2).

Any ideas for Progressions to beat it?

I searched for years to find a progression that would not succumb to the killer sequence that makes these progressions not work in your favor. There is only one progression that works. Bet big while in a favorable streak and bet small while in a not favorable streak. Expect at least one but sometimes two very strong favorable streaks for each 100 to 200 spins. Never descend into the abyss while continuing  to use strong bets.