Singles and series
It is an interesting concept. We all know about the law of series and how every increment of one series is a 50% probability on a lower series.  Now I will treat this slightly different from pure red/black and high/low or odd/even scenarios. One might argue that it is the same, what difference do you figure between a simple EC and a single/series combination.

The reasoning I will try explaining in simple english without getting into the complex terminologies.

Red is a red, black is a black. Red can be one of 18 numbers, black can be one of 18 numbers. Single is a single, but a series constitutes of the following. A single, a series of 2, a series of 3, a series of 4 and so on and so forth. Again, am not denying the fact that a single to become a series is 50% probability ignoring zeroes and a series to continue as a series is a similar probability. But what am trying to bring out is the fact that it has a slight differentiation with respect to a plain even chance.

The differentiation is while red and black are independent events, series and singles are dependent events. You can just drop one spin to get a number and say that it is a red or black. But can you drop just one spin and say that whether it is a single or series? No you can't. That essentially is what am saying as the difference. It is a dependent event. You need one spin on both the sides to definitely say that whether it is a single or a series. You following me? And the permutations are endless and almost unplayable when you take all the kinds of streaks that will form.

With that in mind, lets see in the next post whether we should treat it differently from other ECs while adopting a regression based play. Enjoy your weekend and if I see you on Monday I will continue the topic.

Standard deviation - 1

Thanks Turner, very interesting pointer. And Sputnik, nice little LW registry there.

Now, lets get into the bet selection process.

Bet selection
Hmm! There are a number of ways you can play SD and regression. My preferred one is on even chances. When I say even chances, it could be colours, odd/even, high/lows, 9/9 splits, 3/3 lines, 6/6 streets, LW registries, single/series.. i could go on and on. I will touch upon various selection methods as and when i go through examples, so that it can be seen better. But I will restrict them only to even chances to start with.

On a side note, I remember once Lanky using John solitude's method of standard deviation on straight ups to greater success.

Dominance/following the wheel vs regression
I think this is one place where most of us stutter and we tend to take a fallacy driven approach. This is where, i believe the approach from some of the professional players are distinct. Eventhough, there might be an adoption amongst some of my freinds to a more complicated method that works for them, I will try to simplify this for the purpose of understanding and then you can devise your own playable method around it. Most of us (including myself) used to think that when I bet for something to regress after an extreme deviation, I will go opposing the deviation. For example, if i have seen 7 Evens and 1 Odd in my sample set of 8 spins, I used to and many of us still suggest betting on Odd for a defined set of spins.

Think about it! What does regression to mean imply? It says if one of the sample set of measurements is extreme, the other set tends to be closer to mean. It doesn't say that the other set will drive towards opposite extreme. So in our example, we expect the second set of 8 spins to be a more balanced mix of evens and odds. Now take these two together! What is more clever? Betting on odds to appear atleast once in the next 4 spins or betting evens to appear atleast once in the next 4 spins. I think the answer is no brainer - bet on even. Why? Lets explore a bit further.

You have three possibilities that you can expect in the next set of 8 spins.

Possibility 1 - If you have observed deviation towards one side, it is possible that the deviation is getting even extreme on that side (Good chance of winning betting evens)

Possibility 2 - If you have observed deviation, you could experience regression to mean, which will make a more balanced outcome in the next set (good chance of winning betting evens)

Possibility 3 - If you have observed deviation towards one side, it is possible that you could experience deviation on the other side. (good chance of winning betting odds)

Now 2 out of 3 possibilities, ask you to bet on evens or the dominant side in the deviation and 1 out of 3 asks you to chose the dormant side. what's your choice! My choice is to go with the dominant side. Ofcourse as I said, it is questionable and we may agree to disagree with those believing in going for the dormant side, but apply a bit of common sense and see for yourselves what works for you. Following the wheel works in most cases and it is an art to follow the wheel. It is not as straightforward as going with the dominant one, but for simplicity, lets assume it just means that.

I have deliberately not used terms in statistics to make it plain and practical. Hope you are finding this useful. Next post, I will explore using the concepts that we have discussed so far in a sample set of spins using a simple bet selection.

Appreciate sumit. Things are very limited isn't it.
Sorry, am not into sports betting and it doesn't interest me fortunately/unfortunately.

Sample size
Sample size is very critical if you have to adopt any statistics techniques. Standard deviation will vary between a sample of 10 spins, 100 spins and 300 spins. What we are looking here is practical applicability in roulette and hence any sample size that we take need to be playable. Waiting for a higher sample size will take the fun away from the game and make it really insane. Typically (or should I say commonly) people consider 3 out 10 of an EC as a deviation that has crossed SD levels and start betting from that position onwards.

To me anything between 8 to 10 is a decent sample size to consider to be playable.  For all practical purposes in this thread, I will consider a sample size of 8 spins and look for deviations from mean within this sample size.

Chasing the deviation
Often people commit the mistake of chasing endlessly after a deviation. That is equivalent of betting black to appear endlessly after a series of reds and with a progression that might dig their own graves. To make the entire subject playable and affordable and not write your will to the casino, the best is not to chase it endlessly. Then how much should one chase?

Well! Different friends of mine has different opinion. For one just placing 2 bets is sufficient chasing. Most common is placing 3 bets as it fits nicely within a 1,1,2 or a 124 or 123 progression. My advice – chase until half of your sample size. That is one of the reasons why we have chosen a sample size of 8. We will chase until half of this sample size which is four spins. Chasing until half the sample size will give a good indication of whether your chosen approach on betting is a winner or loser for the next sample size. Again, I stress on good indication because nothing is certain.

Next post, I will explore on how our bet selection should look like when doing these bets.

Well, am not a great fan of these techniques, but I can safely say that I have been fortunate enough to know people who plays these techniques with greater amount of success and have learnt a lot from them. As some of you have pointed out that this is a subject which is like "I will tell you, but have to kill you", I have decided to post the knowledge I have gathered from some of my close friends who practice this technique. I am not worried about them killing me, as I am anyway counting my days


Standard deviation
Now anyone who wants to read something about standard deviation, I would suggest reading this wonderful article from our mathematician friend Bayes
http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=1093.0

Things can't get simpler than that and I am not going to explain here what 2SD means or what 3SD means. That will essentially defeat the purpose of this thread. And moreover, I can't put that simpler than what Bayes has put in his thread. What I will explain is the practical applicability of this in roulette in simple English with some examples and explain the common fallacies and pitfalls that you should avoid. As in all the threads that I have initiated, you need to develop your own strategy around it, eventhough I will touch upon a couple of methods of using it. In fact one who would like to understand statistics in a fun and easy way, I would recommend the book Cartoon guide to statistics by Larry Gonick. Very nice read , but don't expect to become a statistician after that

Regression to mean
The explanation goes it is the phenomenon in which if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and, paradoxically, if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first. Using Regression, as with any statistic concepts, you cannot be certain of something to happen, but you can certainly say that it will happen within a degree of predictability.

Simple applicability in roulette could be (ofcourse some people might disagree as statistics is common sense and what is common sense is always questionable), you see that there are 10 Reds in a row, then in the next 10 spins, there is a higher degree of probability for a balanced mix of reds and blacks to be present. Often people misunderstand that the next 10 spins will have more blacks than reds or completely black so that it will all even out. NO! That's not the case. Regression to the mean will just imply that the next set of 10 spins will have a higher chance of a mix of blacks and reds. Again note, nothing is certain.

Now in my next post, I shall explain some concepts that one should take into consideration while practicing regression to the mean.

Sumit, very interesting picks. Do you think, it will be good to maintain a running table of odds against your picks and run a fantasy Bankroll, which will clearly show how your picks are performing compared to a starting bankroll. The reason I mentioned is because, often I find that people who do sports betting prefer to bet different capital on different bets based on the odds on offer and what they believe is the amount they should invest based on their prediction probability. Its more like blackjack, when someone puts lesser chips on the table when the card count is not favouring them and put more on the table when the card count is in their favour. That will definitely bring in some added dimension to your picks. Just a thought!

Thanks Nick and Flat. Yep, I will reserve a chair for sure. Will need some like minded company

Thanks Sputnik, are you able to explain it with an example.

For instance, you are saying
"Now lets say you have 6 reds and 2 blacks, now you know that if 6 reds hit you will have 2.5 STD.
That is why this 2 blacks is a tendency or a +1 indication that there will be a change, so you bet once with out chasing."

When you are betting once, are you betting black or red?

"That means that the STD did not grow stronger as it stop and hovering around zero value, so that is also one more bet with out chasing."

Again here, did you bet black or red?

Dane,

What I meant was something like the one below. Same principles of upping the bet after a win, keeping the bet selection dynamic, but using only one DS.

[reveal]
[csv=,]
Spin,Bet unit,Outcome,P/L,BR,Peak
6,,,0,0,0
28,1,,-1,-1,0
13,1,,-1,-2,0
1,1,6,5,3,3
21,1,,-1,2,3
27,1,,-1,1,3
36,1,,-1,0,3
11,1,,-1,-1,3
14,1,,-1,-2,3
28,1,,-1,-3,3
5,1,,-1,-4,3
21,1,,-1,-5,3
19,1,,-1,-6,3
11,1,,-1,-7,3
5,1,,-1,-8,3
25,1,6,5,-3,3
13,2,,-2,-5,3
6,2,,-2,-7,3
26,2,12,10,3,3
11,1,,-1,2,3
13,1,,-1,1,3
19,1,,-1,0,3
13,1,,-1,-1,3
12,1,,-1,-2,3
5,1,,-1,-3,3
10,1,,-1,-4,3
17,1,,-1,-5,3
19,1,,-1,-6,3
22,1,,-1,-7,3
14,1,,-1,-8,3
28,1,,-1,-9,3
22,1,,-1,-10,3
35,1,,-1,-11,3
26,1,6,5,-6,3
6,2,,-2,-8,3
19,2,,-2,-10,3
12,2,,-2,-12,3
4,2,,-2,-14,3
31,2,,-2,-16,3
36,2,,-2,-18,3
16,2,,-2,-20,3
14,2,,-2,-22,3
0,2,,-2,-24,3
21,2,,-2,-26,3
32,2,12,10,-16,3
15,3,,-3,-19,3
28,3,,-3,-22,3
17,3,,-3,-25,3
33,3,18,15,-10,3
15,4,,-4,-14,3
3,4,,-4,-18,3
32,4,24,20,2,3
6,5,,-5,-3,3
36,5,30,25,22,22
34,1,6,5,27,27
14,1,,-1,26,27
9,1,,-1,25,27
12,1,,-1,24,27
35,1,6,5,29,29
4,1,,-1,28,29
13,1,,-1,27,29
18,1,,-1,26,29
2,1,,-1,25,29
19,1,,-1,24,29
31,1,6,5,29,29
33,1,6,5,34,34
24,1,,-1,33,34
18,1,,-1,32,34
32,1,6,5,37,37
0,1,,-1,36,37
21,1,,-1,35,37
33,1,6,5,40,40
18,1,,-1,39,40
15,1,,-1,38,40
3,1,,-1,37,40
30,1,,-1,36,40
8,1,,-1,35,40
19,1,,-1,34,40
3,1,,-1,33,40
7,1,,-1,32,40
34,1,,-1,31,40
26,1,,-1,30,40
32,1,,-1,29,40
11,1,,-1,28,40
31,1,,-1,27,40
3,1,,-1,26,40
13,1,,-1,25,40
27,1,,-1,24,40
14,1,,-1,23,40
33,1,,-1,22,40
5,1,,-1,21,40
6,1,,-1,20,40
30,1,,-1,19,40
30,1,,-1,18,40
10,1,,-1,17,40
18,1,,-1,16,40
2,1,,-1,15,40
26,1,,-1,14,40
36,1,,-1,13,40
15,1,6,5,18,40
34,2,,-2,16,40
28,2,,-2,14,40
16,2,12,10,24,40
27,3,,-3,21,40
6,3,,-3,18,40
14,3,18,15,33,40
20,4,,-4,29,40
15,4,24,20,49,49
35,1,,-1,48,49
31,1,,-1,47,49
23,1,,-1,46,49
5,1,,-1,45,49
29,1,,-1,44,49
33,1,,-1,43,49
26,1,,-1,42,49
3,1,,-1,41,49
23,1,,-1,40,49
33,1,6,5,45,49
14,2,,-2,43,49
16,2,,-2,41,49
17,2,,-2,39,49
36,2,12,10,49,49
23,1,,-1,48,49
12,1,,-1,47,49
15,1,,-1,46,49
35,1,6,5,51,51
26,1,,-1,50,51
33,1,6,5,55,55
7,1,,-1,54,55
25,1,,-1,53,55
32,1,6,5,58,58
20,1,,-1,57,58
16,1,,-1,56,58
34,1,6,5,61,61
32,1,6,5,66,66
16,1,,-1,65,66
34,1,6,5,70,70
1,1,,-1,69,70
34,1,6,5,74,74
36,1,6,5,79,79
13,1,,-1,78,79
35,1,6,5,83,83
7,1,,-1,82,83
28,1,,-1,81,83
5,1,,-1,80,83
34,1,6,5,85,85
12,1,,-1,84,85
6,1,,-1,83,85
22,1,,-1,82,85
20,1,,-1,81,85
23,1,,-1,80,85
14,1,,-1,79,85
8,1,,-1,78,85
24,1,,-1,77,85
36,1,,-1,76,85
15,1,6,5,81,85
25,2,,-2,79,85
9,2,,-2,77,85
31,2,,-2,75,85
16,2,12,10,85,85
30,1,,-1,84,85
35,1,,-1,83,85
35,1,,-1,82,85
7,1,,-1,81,85
8,1,,-1,80,85
20,1,,-1,79,85
2,1,,-1,78,85
19,1,6,5,83,85
20,2,12,10,93,93
19,1,6,5,98,98
26,1,,-1,97,98
18,1,,-1,96,98
9,1,,-1,95,98
1,1,,-1,94,98
11,1,,-1,93,98
30,1,,-1,92,98
23,1,,-1,91,98
19,1,,-1,90,98
15,1,,-1,89,98
32,1,,-1,88,98
23,1,,-1,87,98
22,1,,-1,86,98
30,1,,-1,85,98
16,1,,-1,84,98
32,1,,-1,83,98
15,1,,-1,82,98
10,1,,-1,81,98
22,1,6,5,86,98
5,2,,-2,84,98
1,2,,-2,82,98
15,2,,-2,80,98
9,2,,-2,78,98
30,2,,-2,76,98
26,2,,-2,74,98
19,2,,-2,72,98
30,2,12,10,82,98
28,3,18,15,97,98
35,4,,-4,93,98
23,4,,-4,89,98
19,4,,-4,85,98
28,4,24,20,105,105
3,1,,-1,104,105
7,1,,-1,103,105
3,1,,-1,102,105
2,1,,-1,101,105
27,1,6,5,106,106
21,1,,-1,105,106
2,1,,-1,104,106
13,1,,-1,103,106
34,1,,-1,102,106
1,1,,-1,101,106
11,1,,-1,100,106
35,1,,-1,99,106
19,1,,-1,98,106
30,1,,-1,97,106
5,1,,-1,96,106
21,1,,-1,95,106
27,1,,-1,94,106
22,1,,-1,93,106
0,1,,-1,92,106
18,1,,-1,91,106
11,1,,-1,90,106
21,1,,-1,89,106
9,1,,-1,88,106
10,1,6,5,93,106
16,2,,-2,91,106
35,2,,-2,89,106
27,2,,-2,87,106
6,2,,-2,85,106
25,2,,-2,83,106
2,2,,-2,81,106
27,2,,-2,79,106
14,2,,-2,77,106
10,2,,-2,75,106
36,2,,-2,73,106
10,2,,-2,71,106
7,2,,-2,69,106
1,2,,-2,67,106
30,2,,-2,65,106
36,2,,-2,63,106
30,2,,-2,61,106
36,2,,-2,59,106
7,2,12,10,69,106
17,3,,-3,66,106
14,3,,-3,63,106
32,3,,-3,60,106
15,3,,-3,57,106
10,3,18,15,72,106
13,4,,-4,68,106
31,4,,-4,64,106
1,4,,-4,60,106
29,4,,-4,56,106
0,4,,-4,52,106
2,4,,-4,48,106
16,4,,-4,44,106
1,4,24,20,64,106
35,5,,-5,59,106
19,5,,-5,54,106
27,5,,-5,49,106
5,5,30,25,74,106
23,6,,-6,68,106
25,6,,-6,62,106
6,6,36,30,92,106
6,7,42,35,127,127
11,1,,-1,126,127
14,1,,-1,125,127
11,1,,-1,124,127
7,1,,-1,123,127
26,1,,-1,122,127
12,1,,-1,121,127
17,1,,-1,120,127
4,1,,-1,119,127
22,1,,-1,118,127
23,1,,-1,117,127
22,1,,-1,116,127
7,1,6,5,121,127
36,2,,-2,119,127
25,2,,-2,117,127
23,2,,-2,115,127
3,2,,-2,113,127
23,2,,-2,111,127
16,2,,-2,109,127
8,2,,-2,107,127
34,2,,-2,105,127
21,2,,-2,103,127
24,2,,-2,101,127
23,2,,-2,99,127
7,2,,-2,97,127
19,2,,-2,95,127
24,2,,-2,93,127
19,2,,-2,91,127
0,2,,-2,89,127
25,2,,-2,87,127
23,2,,-2,85,127
21,2,12,10,95,127
20,3,18,15,110,127
8,4,,-4,106,127
19,4,24,20,126,127
5,5,,-5,121,127
25,5,,-5,116,127
4,5,,-5,111,127
15,5,,-5,106,127
1,5,,-5,101,127
29,5,,-5,96,127
7,5,,-5,91,127
3,5,,-5,86,127
4,5,,-5,81,127
33,5,,-5,76,127
24,5,,-5,71,127
12,5,,-5,66,127
33,5,,-5,61,127
10,5,30,25,86,127
21,6,,-6,80,127
23,6,,-6,74,127
5,6,,-6,68,127
8,6,36,30,98,127
24,7,,-7,91,127
31,7,,-7,84,127
20,7,,-7,77,127
14,7,,-7,70,127
30,7,,-7,63,127
4,7,,-7,56,127
27,8,,-8,48,127
14,8,,-8,40,127
32,8,,-8,32,127
28,8,,-8,24,127
34,8,,-8,16,127
17,8,,-8,8,127
14,8,48,40,48,127
3,9,,-9,39,127
19,9,,-9,30,127
5,9,,-9,21,127
12,9,,-9,12,127
16,9,54,45,57,127
13,10,60,50,107,127
10,1,,-1,106,127
11,1,,-1,105,127
29,1,,-1,104,127
8,1,,-1,103,127
31,1,,-1,102,127
36,1,,-1,101,127
32,1,6,5,106,127
19,2,,-2,104,127
17,2,,-2,102,127
11,2,,-2,100,127
27,2,,-2,98,127
30,2,,-2,96,127
15,2,,-2,94,127
27,2,,-2,92,127
7,2,,-2,90,127
20,2,,-2,88,127
0,2,,-2,86,127
34,2,,-2,84,127
28,2,,-2,82,127
5,2,,-2,80,127
36,2,,-2,78,127
29,2,12,10,88,127
26,3,18,15,103,127
22,4,,-4,99,127
26,4,24,20,119,127
28,1,6,5,124,127
20,1,,-1,123,127
19,1,,-1,122,127
23,1,,-1,121,127
19,1,,-1,120,127
32,1,,-1,119,127
21,1,,-1,118,127
30,1,,-1,117,127
32,1,,-1,116,127
12,1,,-1,115,127
14,1,,-1,114,127
34,1,,-1,113,127
23,1,6,5,118,127
19,2,12,10,128,128
13,1,,-1,127,128
30,1,,-1,126,128
34,1,,-1,125,128
9,1,,-1,124,128
16,1,,-1,123,128
36,1,,-1,122,128
7,1,,-1,121,128
20,1,,-1,120,128
21,1,,-1,119,128
22,1,,-1,118,128
15,1,,-1,117,128
34,1,6,5,122,128
5,2,,-2,120,128
6,2,,-2,118,128
24,2,,-2,116,128
4,2,,-2,114,128
35,2,12,10,124,128
32,3,18,15,139,139
14,1,,-1,138,139
15,1,,-1,137,139
6,1,,-1,136,139
11,1,,-1,135,139
29,1,,-1,134,139
16,1,,-1,133,139
26,1,,-1,132,139
1,1,,-1,131,139
32,1,,-1,130,139
10,1,,-1,129,139
30,1,,-1,128,139
21,1,,-1,127,139
18,1,,-1,126,139
26,1,,-1,125,139
7,1,,-1,124,139
10,1,,-1,123,139
16,1,,-1,122,139
15,1,,-1,121,139
12,1,,-1,120,139
23,1,,-1,119,139
0,1,,-1,118,139
[/csv]
[/reveal]

Quote from: Sputnik on September 04, 2013, 02:50:47 PM
I don't want to teach in public, just a wast of time.

If you are eager to teach me in pm am all ears as for years I have found this subject fascinating, but haven't been able to crack the potential behind it.

Quote from: Sputnik on September 04, 2013, 02:50:47 PM
You can see red being ahead and you can see singles be ahead, no difference, so i don't understand what you try to prove.

Sputnik, I mean no disrespect. All I wanted to understand was the way the STD was getting calculated for single and series so that I can also learn why we think we reach higher STDs in singles and series faster than Red and blacks.  I know the standard formula for SD, but that's not taking me to a +/-3.0SD faster than I would get for reds and blacks.

Believe me, I am not here to prove or disprove anything.

I understand when you say,
9 singles and 1 series
9 series and 1 singles
9 reds and 1 black
9 blacks and 1 red
9 losses and 1 win
9 winnings and 1 loss
means the same thing, if those winnings and losses are for even returns.

What I don't understand is when you say we are seeing more higher STDs in singles and series compared to plain ECs. If you can explain that, then I would like to learn from it.

Quote from: Turner on September 04, 2013, 02:21:03 PM
I agree ...for what I know. High SD is very visible in small samples using singles and series. Still...I get 9 singles and one series and the singles keep coming. This is where I am stuck.

Turner, can you give an example set of spins to show why you think high SD is coming in singles and series. Lets take an example of 50 spins, so that I can understand what makes you and Sputnik think so.

Quote from: Chrisbis on July 08, 2013, 03:01:37 AM
Is it me, or did anyone else see what I saw, when I first viewed Atlantis's post in Quad Cycle topic proper?

Quote
Lol Chris, only you can think like this.[smiley]giga/dingue.gif[/smiley]

Looks like Quad cycle has come some way since I left this forum. Turner, do you still play this?