FYI  I deleted posts on "Betting Every Hand" to remove posts I considered off topic.  You want to talk about something else - start your own thread.

Quote from: greenguy on November 25, 2015, 08:45:17 PM
Good for you Gizmo,

But what about your legacy?

Hahhahaha.  That's right.  Few people want to go to the grave without recognition.  Heck, few can keep such a secret!   

Quote from: Gizmotron on November 19, 2015, 06:39:03 PM
Here it is, right in front of you, from another thread:

See, that wasn't so hard was it Giz?

I'm always willing to entertain different perspectives.  Why not?  I use a visual perspective of what one might call triggers myself.  I'll have to take a look at what you posted to see if there is anything I might recognize as dominance phasing.  But first I'm not sure I understand the formatting.  There are two columns separated by "----------------"   I assume these are from Roulette spins.  Why are there two columns side by side?  Difficult for me to figure the order of the spins.  Why do the dotted lines cross over to the next column?

And please don't tell me to go back to the Roulette Forum.  You came to this forum.  IMO, the onus is on you to give at least a modicum of explanation of what you post.

J

Quote from: Gizmotron on November 18, 2015, 04:16:31 PM
I'm sorry but I'm keeping that to myself.

Awwwwww!  And here I was holding my breath!

QuoteYou can't make it pay, as you say. You have to let opportunity come to you. You must find a way to wait for the time to attack. One of my posts shows how long you have to wait for sleepers to line up just right. You need a method to recoup your tries, while waiting for the attack. Try to stay even. Don't descend into deep losses. Get out at a reasonable amount for your effort. You can become a millionaire with just three units ahead for each session.

Giz is going a LONG way around just to say, "Let the force be with you."  "Get in the zone." 

Millionaire?  That's a stretch ain't it, Giz.  You got ask yourself if you got the kind of risk bank to make millions with just 3 units a session WHY ARE YOU GAMBLING?  Aren't you better off using a price cost averaging algorithm in a diverse portfolio?

Serious question, Giz.  How long is a session?  1 hour? 5 hours?  3 units per how much time?

J

If any of you have the time or inclination you might count the W and L's i terms of their lengths per 75 decisions and compute the average run lengths of each length.  My guess is you will find close to average run lengths.  The point being there is no progression or bet style ( You call that MM, I don't) that will produce a greater profit relative to risk of each.

J

I don't think I like this new site.  How can I make fun of Al if he can block me from his stuff?  That's not right.  When people say stupid, obnoxious or misinformed stuff they should be countered.

Anywho - as far as Bac goes this site is like beating a dead horse over and over again.  Maybe other areas are better I wouldn't know since I don't read the other stuff.  Same old stuff gets re-hashed.  That's why I don't participate much anymore even though I read some stuff.

Just my opinion.

Quote from: gr8player on April 12, 2015, 06:48:49 PM
Hello, Tomla, I trust all is well with you, my friend.

I honestly can't answer the question that you've posed, but I can tell you what I look for:  Dominations.

Unless you can define  dominations and say how to predict them the rest of the post is utterly meaningless.

QuoteThe majority of doms are ripe with double wins, even the most minor doms, such as:

P P B P P B...a rather minor P-dom, but, nonetheless, betting for P two consecutive times after the B appearance will get you those 2 wins; and, again, that's but a minor dom example.

Most any dom, just by its very nature because of the dominance of that one side, will suffice to evoke your double wins.

When I choose my parlay play, it is most-assuredly due to the appearance of my dom trigger.

Aha!  So now you have a "dom trigger."  That should be definable.  What is it?

Quote from: gr8player on April 12, 2015, 03:22:47 PM
That's not how parlays work, Jimske.  There's no "W 2, -2, 2 restart with 2 units.."; rather, it's W 2, -4, so now, down 2 units, we move one step to the right in Soxter's listed progression.

Beware of confusing "double wins" with "parlays".  Double wins are bets of the same size made twice consecutively, whereas parlays are of the "let it ride" variety, where all is risked in the attempt to procure two consecutive wins.  Double wins procure two units of profit, while parlays will net you three units of profit.  BUUUTTT, never forget that all unsuccessful parlay attempts effectively "forfeit" your initial win, whereas the "double win" play will have you break even whenever the initial win is followed by a loss.

Let's not get carried away here.  I don't know how sox plays the prog he posted.  All I'm saying is if you follow the prog until you get a win  which means you won 2 IAR and restart the only way you lose is if you don't ever win 2 IAR before you get to the end.

Quote from: james on April 12, 2015, 03:06:14 AM
After WLWLWL you already lost the first 3 bets in the progression and now you have to bet the fourth bet in the progression.

stop and restart on a W 2, -2, 2 restart win 2 units..   or  2, -2, 2, -6, 8 restart win 4 units, etc.  Risk 175 units.

Quote from: gr8player on April 11, 2015, 08:22:47 PM
Even easier to "bust the prog" than you'd think, Jimske.

You see, my friend, with Soxter's parlay progression (or, frankly, any parlay method), the losses needn't necessarily come in "consecutive" fashion, and yet the player could still be in trouble:

W L W L W L.....this scenario is just as precarious (probably even more so) for the parlay player, because even though they've won half their bets, they'll find themselves going into step #4 of their progression ladder, having failed to complete either of the first three parlay attempts.

So it's not just consecutive losses than can hurt this player, but how the losses pan out in their current play is just as vital.  The player that is currently finding that second consecutive win rather elusive will not do well with their parlay bids.

Now, that all said, I happen to be a fan of parlays.  But I prefer to measure my "sense of timing" at this particular shoe and/or session BEFORE simply "blindly" parlaying.  In other words, what is my current strike rate AFTER any particular win?  Am I winning 2 bets in-a-row with any consistency right now?....If that answer is affirmative, then by all means, the parlay is an important part of my MM arsenal.

So MM becomes a bit like trending.....adjusting usages to the current conditions.

Hmmm?  Thank you Gr8.  But you see, my friend, the prog probably restarts on break even or any win so WLWLWL not a problem.  Can't lose more than 175 units if not get a double win but can win and restart along the way.

Quote from: james on April 10, 2015, 12:22:58 PM
If you lose all 11 bets, your loss will b 175 units. In a $10 table, the loss will be $875. Unless you have a bet selection that wins a parlay within 11 tries, your loss will be excessive. In my testing usual bet selections, DBL, ODBL, OLD, FLD etc. are losers with 11 step parlay progression.

Yes, I believe you are correct.  But those bet selections and others are too simplistic.  Consider simply betting one side - P B; R B; O E, etc.  All you need is a run of 10 or more to bust the prog.  Pretty easy to lose.  So you need a refined bet selection.

According to IMSpirit going to lose 10 or more about every 1200 bets.  So if that is accurate then I just ran through 7200 bets (actually way more) without losing 10 IAR.  Anybody figure the SD on that?

Quote from: soxfan on April 09, 2015, 08:46:26 PM
I post up my progression style, again, so you can see it can stand 10LIAR, then capture back to back win and skate with 25 unit of sweet sweet sweet profits, hey hey.

2-2-2-6-8-10-15-20-25-35-50 units bets
6-4-2-12-12-10-15-15-10-15-25 units profit

Yup,  I remember.  Thanks.

Quote from: soxfan on April 08, 2015, 12:41:43 AM
The LIAR is not so important for me cuz I can withstand 10L and capture my coup of back to back win for a nice profit. I still maintain that different bs style offer up different w/l cluster. Some bs style are better than other for capturing back to back wins. So it isn't a one size fit all proposition as far as matching bs style with progression/mm plan, hey hey.

I've never lost 10L as far as I can remember.  Don't think so.  Lost 9 IAR twice.  7 IAR numerous times.  I can't quite figure how a back to back win can recoup 10L IAR.  Did you post that prog once before?

Quote from: soxfan on April 08, 2015, 12:41:43 AM
The LIAR is not so important for me cuz I can withstand 10L and capture my coup of back to back win for a nice profit. I still maintain that different bs style offer up different w/l cluster. Some bs style are better than other for capturing back to back wins. So it isn't a one size fit all proposition as far as matching bs style with progression/mm plan, hey hey.

That's another way of looking at it -clusters of wins and losses.  That as opposed to losses in a row.so with clusters were talking about frequency of events in groups. I think maybe even asym said something about that.   Rare events.  Defining clusters and predicting them by understanding their frequency is the task.  But as far as matching up that selection with the clusters how does that work?

Quote from: Trbfla on April 05, 2015, 03:48:40 PM

It seems to me that singles and threes are more of an otbl trigger than anything else....

WEll, no, singles for TBL and 3+ also for TBL.  OTBL likes 2's and solo 1's or what I call Alternate 2 (A2's) PPP B PP.......