Quote from: alrelax on November 23, 2018, 10:05:08 PM
Probably another post is better to discuss pros and cons of your comment, but yes, there are two different types of play in baccarat.

Camaraderie and the original big table or even Midi/Macau style can produce larger, well coordinated wins, especially for those that gamble for that style.  Then there is most certainly the grind or the relaxed or slot machine style loner play with the newer stadium the past few years.

Stadium at MoSun are regular live shoes.  Bet $5-$15,000.00

One thing about stadium at MoSun you can sit there with your IPAD and watch a movie on Netflix and just bet 5 bucks or nothing until your stuff comes up. LOL  And you can watch two games at a time!  No smoking, no yelling, no waiting for somebody to squeeze the stupid cards!  hahahaha

Quote from: alrelax on November 21, 2018, 03:52:47 PM
Asym,

It all boils down to, how many times the 'event' (whatever it might be) happens and the players catches it, sees it, or capitalizes on it.

Many will attempt to turn all that around and convert it all into math, stats, patterns and trends, etc.  Which cannot be accurately done.

Non of them will consistently reoccur within any set parameters, no matter how a person tries to run the theory. 

Better understanding of that and the game is experience.  The problem for most is the lack of funds to their continual depleting of what they believe is the ideal bank roll or buy-in, etc.

Personally I can make huge amounts of profit on a 7 or 10 or 14 chop-chop streak or a 12 repeating P or B streak in a row, as well 8 times (16 hands) doubles or anyone of countless other events.  The problem lies in between those events and profitable times as to each of our 'cooling off' periods and how we each handle those.  Almost all the time, people cannot cool off or stop playing and thus the disaster will strike.  Probably 99.98 to 99.99.9% of the times players win.  IMO and Experience.

Again, problem being, player observation, awareness, beliefs and betting decision to coincide with events that are happening.

I don't want to change the theme of this thread but I'll comment anyway.  So one could say just flat bet or no bet until such a time when a "possibility" or pattern or streak exists than bet and if win first one or two bets keep bumping up hoping for those "infrequents" to continue.  Say double up or UAYW Fibonacci as example.

Seems plausible but those "in betweens" may very well out number the big wins.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on November 21, 2018, 09:09:21 AM
That's interesting.
Do you want to say something more on that?

as.

Singles rule the shoe.  Are the singles consistent? 

If no singles OR if all singles chop at least once OR if all singles stay solitary then bet every hand and easy to win every shoe.     But above seldom happens.  But can happen for sections of the shoe.

If we can guess or predict what happens when a singleton occurs we can win easily.  The repeats?  Go for long runs - or not.  Bet them "longest gone" or "longer still"  (where's the Gr8 one?) or not.

Don't want to bet a lot of hands?  Bet for follow or chop one time all shoe long.  Let the rest go.

Proper betting, MM, discipline, patience.  Variance goes both ways. 

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on November 21, 2018, 09:09:21 AM
That's interesting.
Do you want to say something more on that?

as.

No because I am digesting.    And I got to go.  Later.

 I agree what you say above.  I'll look forward to next post.  Just a footnote now. Yes I guess BUT I "key" off the chops.  The chops tend to crowd out the streaks as you say.  I use the 1's only.  If they have been average by the quarter shoe I don't expect much long streaks - until the second half when card composition often changes due to certain denomination depletion.

I've been away a lot last year and a half so I missed this thread and never heard of this guy.  But what's wrong with sunshine?  Don't you think people should be able to endorse gambling systems?  How about a special section for system sellers?

There's always people around who will test these things out and there's always those who will buy them.  Don't forget that most buy these systems not caring whether they work or not!    If the claims are false (usually are) the light of day will expose the flaws.

Personally, I don't buy stuff but I do like to get them for free!  Thanks Sputnik, I'll put yet another system in my file.   

IMO, reason people don't share is because they can't.  They don't have a definable method.  Whatever they do is subjective even if, like me, they have a base structure to start.

I'm not buying that there are definable winning methods that are held secret.  Humans can't keep secrets!  LOL  These methods would be spread around in a fairly short period of time.

Quote from: Eight Iron on November 06, 2018, 09:05:43 AM
Yeah, I got the picture.

You want me to tell you how I do it.

I analyzed nearly one-hundred different flat bet variations over more than 1,000 shoes, before I settled on the one I currently use. 

After all that work, why would I tell anyone how I play?

I posted my numbers to show flat betting can win units, and discourage people from wasting their bankrolls progression betting.   My previous posts show FTP, and Banker Only can be effective flat bet strategies.

I did add something to the discussion, but you were not listening.

�Stay away from progressions and cancellation systems.�

Millions of players have been using them for the past 100 years.  If even one of them worked, the game would no longer exist.

Wannabes are the ones who waste their time and bust their bankrolls over and over on that nonsense.

There is never a mathematical reason to use a progression in Baccarat.

Not quite true.  Using progressions will ultimately have the exact same winning as flat betting the average bet size (ABS) of the progression utilized.  So if one can win flat betting one will also win with progressions.  Of course one must consider available bankroll, table limits and variance.  The advantage of progressions vs. flat betting is to win greater % of shoes.
*************************

60 units in 10 months?  That's not a lot but still a win is a win.  I'm not knocking it.  It would be helpful if you were to state how many bets per shoe and units won per shoe on average.  Stuff like that.  Surely that wouldn't be giving anything away.

Lots of questions.  Maybe the following too simplistic but what made forums so popular in my opinion was the easily disseminated defined rule based systems that proliferated.  Humans like order and learning defined methodologies.  As gamblers began finally realizing that these are essentially betting and guessing games many gave up.  The ones that stayed and played developed their own strategies which don't have a lot in common with what is discussed on these boards.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on October 07, 2018, 11:06:34 PM
BTW, it's time to put in practice for BS members what I've been stressing here and there for years.

Let me know when you can join me in Vegas and you'll get an idea what I'm talking about.
I'll take any side action, obviously for free.

If you'll lose after a coup,le of sessions, I'll promptly cancel my name here and there.
Of course it won't' be the case. :-)

as.

The P 12 concept beginning to break down.  Admittedly my small hand test of live shoes not a good example. Still have a .49 u/shoe net win.  So I was curious since you ran significant number of trials what your flat bet net win is.   And I found the second bet after the first loss to be a net loss.

The LIAR continuing shoe to shoe were the expected "half as much."  So 20 2LIAR , 10 3LIAR, 5 4LIAR, etc.  I always consider the LIAR category a "tell" that the method is in line with the EV.

 

Quote from: Sputnik on October 06, 2018, 06:55:00 PM
Jimski I am not talking about P single or double P after 3+ I talk about the doubles method.

My note ...
Lugi post this shoe and AsumBagGuy give a clear explanation and I follow and understand.


When I read this I understand that he only played for three doubles in a row, one double as a trigger and the other two should become 3+
Using 1-2 progression or multilayered progression.

I wasn't clear.  Not asking about the progression.  Was a little confused as to the P12 pattern.  Re-reading I see that we wait for a confirmed P1 or P2 and only a 3+ breaks the pattern. 

Small sample 30 shoes using 12 prog gains .87 units/per shoe and 66% shoe win rate.  It's apparent that this little method will do real well when singles are about average or more than average.  Conversely a shoe with a dearth of 1's will fair poorly generally. 

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on October 07, 2018, 10:50:54 PM
Ok with your points Al.

But we ought to remember that the probability that properly dissected patterns happened in the previous shoe will repeat in the same position and in the next shoe are virtually zero. Let's safely say zero point zero.
This is a good starting point, imo.

as.

Virtually yes but it will happen.  I've seen this concept and have played it some in the past.  I don't know what "properly dissected patterns" means.  Best to pick a pattern that is less common than others.  But it has to be a series of decisions and I'm not sure if betting 12 will suffice.

So AS, I am still confounded as to what you mean by wait for a 12 or 21 on P.  Now Sputnik seems to  interpret your meaning a little different.

Do you mind clarifying?

J

Quote from: Gizmotron on June 07, 2018, 01:57:38 PM
Just so that you all can grasp some knowledge regarding all this easy Narcissism talk so "freely" being thrown around. Everyone tends to have one or two characteristics of Narcissistic behavior in them. It takes more than five traits to be classified as a Narcissist in the DSM-5.

I disagree.  Surprise, surprise.  Narcissism has definitions in and out of technical literature.  It goes back at least as far as the story of Cain and Abel, which in that extreme symbolizes the epitome of evil incorporated in personality (you might find People of the Lie by M. Scott Peck interesting).  In the lesser it is simply willfulness, egotistical, lack of humility.  In short, it doesn't have to be a clinical analysis to be used and understood.