Quote from: Xander on June 07, 2018, 01:44:45 PM
No guess.  It doesn't happen like that.  They would at worst emailed Victor.  They wouldn't call.  The call is just more exaggerating.  Absolutely made up and absurd.

:))Yes, sounded a little flakey to me that's why I asked. 

Yeah, I get it Glen I was just wondering how it all transpired.

Quote from: alrelax on June 07, 2018, 08:48:29 AM
I don't believe I said anything in that quote about Thorpe and you make it appear that I did and you've just lambasted me for misunderstanding the content you have outlined in that quote I believe that's from another member on the board? Please clarify thank you

Sorry to butt in here, Glen, but I don't see how you were "lambasted."  You already know that it is my opinion that you have a very high degree of narcissism and as such cannot accept even the slightest criticism.  Mike didn't say you invoked Thorpe in your argument.  He invoked Thorpe as a kind of expert witness to his own testimony.
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IMO, Mike is correct re: HA is the culprit and one might say all else is just a function of the house edge.

Mike way more educated in the maths than me so one way of looking at the whole problem is to present an extreme to simplify for the simple minded like me.  There is only one casino and one player with a calculated odds in the whole world.  This player wagers 1 unit a gazillion times for a gazillion years.  The product of his endeavor will, in fact, equal the HA of one point whatever %.  If the player decides to change his wager than the average bet size (ABS) will be used.

It doesn't matter what he does with his initial bank of unlimited funds.  He can give some away, cash some in as short term profit and buy a soda, lose some to the drop box.  All of these actions will precipitate another way of measuring the "house take."  But the facts don't change.  The math doesn't lie.
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The real question is prediction.  It's not so easy to generate random numbers with a few decks of cards but no matter because either way one must be able to predict an outcome which can be defined and calculated as "EDGE."  Which is what he is saying all along.

Without such calculation nobody can say other than they are guessing!  Gizmo said, "what's wrong with guessing?"  LOL - Nothing!

Geez!!!!  Why do you think nobody has presented one RULE to show that a prediction will have an advantage?

Quote from: alrelax on June 07, 2018, 08:42:39 AM
Although you did cite you copied and pasted the article you published on this board from the UNLV website your citation was incomplete as well at this time my information is you did not have a letter of authorization and permission from the author and UNLV. I fielded  a phone call a couple of hours ago in regards to this and it will have to be deleted it until you obtain such permission. All future copy and paste or cited information from UNLV, such as you just did will have to be the correct and legal way that they disclaim on their website. I'm sorry it's not my decision you have to follow those rules.  Everyone does.  Thanks for understanding.  Alrelax.

Agreed.  But I'm just curious.  When you say you "fielded a phone call" what exactly does that mean?  UNLV phoned you up or what exactly?

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on June 04, 2018, 11:15:56 PM
Thanks Al, I'm very glad you remain here! ;-)

as.

This has to do with topic how?

BTW, I been away a long time not checking in.  Did you get the Baccarat book published you were promising?

Quote from: Jimske on June 01, 2018, 08:34:01 PM
It's amazing to me that the owner of this website has allowed Glenn to be Global moderator and control.  Here is getting personal trying to drag people down on one hand and then talking about how he wants the whole website to be nice.

I for one can't really be bothered with all this soap opera but I can't help but to see it go on.  In my opinion, Vic, you should get rid of this guy is moderator. He will eventually make this whole site about him and his method whatever it is I don't have a clue and I'm suggesting most people here don't either. And if you want to bend me that's okay.

I guess I should have paid more attention.  Now it is confirmed that our very own  "Braggart-in-Chief" owns .cc.  Am I being negative? OR am I just stating a fact with a little sarcasm?  You decide.

Let's see if our new leader uses his vast "hard knocks" "25,000 shoes"+ (ahem) experience to promote real further understanding of the Baccarat game.

I can only offer my congratulations, Glen.  You're now the big fish in our little pond! 

Quote from: Mike on June 03, 2018, 03:22:39 PM
But it's not really the strike rate which is the problem. Just cover 30 numbers on the roulette layout and you have an 81% strike rate, but this doesn't mean it's a better idea than betting 3 numbers (it isn't). And profit over a 16% strike rate doesn't tell you much; over how many hands must this minimum strike rate materialise? It can't be many.

  When I speak of strike rate I mean win rate.  So for instance my strike rate is now 53.2% for 3,019 bets placed.

Doesn't have to be a single bet.  Could be a series of bets, as long as the series in question provides a net profit.

QuoteI do concede that perhaps in the majority of cases, gamblers lose not to the house edge, but to variance.

Yes but it's the HA that basically creates the variance.  Without it any savvy player would easily determine a winning strategy.

QuoteOne way of countering this is to just place more bets, but the trade off there is that you're exposing more to the HA. Generally speaking if you're playing an NE game the bold plan is the best one. If you have the balls and bankroll then go for it.

You are getting warm!  Risk vs. Reward.  Not necessarily so risky.  Depends if you need to feed a Bulldog or a Chihuahua!   

Good criteria about problem gambling!  Thanks.  How about including not following a preset plan?  Include making bets higher than the method requires (I am guilty of that on occasion).  I call that plunging or tilting.  Included would be staying longer than expected.  Stuff like that.  Disicpline.

Quote from: Albalaha on June 03, 2018, 06:03:16 AM
Over centuries of casino gambling, people easily conclude that the casino games are invincible only because of negative expectations or house edge/house fees.

     This is only partially true. Let us do these reality checks:

I hope it's obvious by now that other than variance the only reason we lose is the NE.  Of course under variance we include limited funds, limited bets place, poor MM, etc. 

E Clifton Davis uses the casino hold figures to "prove" the house is cheating!  How can the hold be 20% on a game with a bit over 1 point against?  LMAO.  If one flat bets forever one will pay ONLY the juice BUT you got to play forever for this to be true.  In the meantime one wins or loses as a product of luck - variance.  If not flat bet than it's just based on average bet size (ABS) -  .

While endeavoring to win one must be aware that we are paying "rent" equal to the HA on EVERY bet whether we win that bet or not.  The majority (I say majority but got no idea.  Casino still offers the game so it's a good assumption) of gamblers lose because they increase their bet to overcome losses from VARIANCE + the HA.  So even IF they win as many hands as lose they're still stuck with paying the juice which now is going to be a product of the ABS.  In theory with unlimited bankroll and no house limit we only lose to the HA.

But individuals run out of money, reduce their wagers and lose not 1.4% but 100%.  LOL  We cannot recoup losses by reducing bet size UNLESS we expect to win a significant more wagers than lose.

This is a long way of saying that the HA really is the only reason we lose.  More importantly it goes to show that we must profit by paying the rent AND after losing more hands than win, IOW overcoming negative variance.  Cause if we just manage to pay the rent we will be even.  Which ain't so bad I guess.

So let's cut to the chase and realize that we either win more hands than lose flat bet and/or have our winning hands accumulate more $ than the accumulation of our losing hands.

Example soxfan Sure Win can profit with a low of 16% strike rate.  Surely if one can profit from such a low strike rate one could devise a method to overcome a 49% strike rate!!!

J

Quote from: Gizmotron on June 01, 2018, 09:18:09 PM

That's a very good description of a selfish, self serving personality. Like I just said a while ago, people like the facts that they get and from whom that they get them. From those kind of facts comes conclusions that make perfect sense too.


But what I want to know is, have you ever started a business or run your own business before? Have you ever been responsible for making payroll to a lot of employees every week? Have you had to jump through bureaucratic hoops in order just to stay in business or operate a business? My guess is that you never had that responsibility or expense before. I would be surprised if you did have that experience. Have you ever read 'Atlas Shrugged?' There are a lot of us that know what Trump has done is to turn the tables on the government looters and takers. This is not about degrading people. What you are seeing is the forgotten people fighting back while they still can. Trump stands up to City Hall. It just so happens to be his trademark. Trump haters are just people that think they know the truth. But to me they couldn't run a lemonade stand. Just remember this. It's people like Trump that make out the paychecks. You can only beg for more and hope that you get it. Only a loser settles for mediocrity and then demands crumbs. You will never know how pathetic the demand's of employees tug at the hearts of risk takers. You are expendable and always will be if all that you can aspire to is being an employee. Group think -- blah! It's just a bunch of wishful thinking nags. Without powerful looters some of you are going to be fired. Drain the swamp.

Hehehe.  No there's nothing wrong with guessing but apparently you're not very good at it!  Not that it's any of your business but I've been self-employed my entire life except for about 3 years.  Again not that it's any of your business but I don't work.

As far as Ayn Rand is concerned she was just another fascist as far as I'm concerned.  Too many people confuse capitalism with free enterprise. Just because you're self-employed doesn't mean that you are a capitalist. Capitalism relies on creating an underclass for success. The capitalists are people like Trump and his financiers and the oligarchs.  Now that doesn't mean that all capitalists are bad people because in reality there is no capitalism nor is there fascism or even socialism in today's world.  One could argue that capitalism did bring millions of people out of poverty though I argue it was tempered by social programs such as collective bargaining where to buy the workers made inroads into acquiring some of the means to production which, is the definition of socialism.

A real problem in our society today is racism, materialism and militarism as MLK so succinctly elaborated on way back during his speeches about Vietnam. As Noam Chomsky has pointed out our society can boost the economy through defense spending as it does. But that boost generally goes to the top tiers.  The same economic boost can be done through domestic spending such as infrastructure, Healthcare and education subsidies. But those expenditures tend to whittle away at the power brokers profits.  The swamp is comprised of just those power brokers.

So from my viewpoint Donald Trump, the epitome of a demagogue, is populating the swamp with real capitalists and their far-right minions such as Miller.

I presume your fancy yourself an intellectual. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Anyway thanks for the discussion I enjoyed it. You can have the last word.

It's amazing to me that the owner of this website has allowed Glenn to be Global moderator and control.  Here is getting personal trying to drag people down on one hand and then talking about how he wants the whole website to be nice.

I for one can't really be bothered with all this soap opera but I can't help but to see it go on.  In my opinion, Vic, you should get rid of this guy is moderator. He will eventually make this whole site about him and his method whatever it is I don't have a clue and I'm suggesting most people here don't either. And if you want to bend me that's okay.

Quote from: alrelax on June 01, 2018, 03:01:56 PM
I used to watch the Apprentice with endorsement of Donald!  The show was not about him, was it?

Actually my cousin worked for Donald for 20 years at the Taj or so and when he cleaned out his desk a little bit ago (a couple of years back now) he gave me the original and one of 3 copies of the book that built the Taj.  I also have a Silver & Gold belt buckle Donald gave me by in the early 90's at a baccarat tournament (those great old bac tournaments in AC and Vegas that went by the way side). 

It is not about me!  It is about sharing, something you seem to forget about also.

Here, I will share:  https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/trump-taj-atlantic-city-and-donald-trump/msg57352/#msg57352

What's wrong with Trump?

where to begin? First of all I think you have to be pretty obtuse not to realize that the show Apprentice was not about Donald Trump. The master deal maker lording over all these little apprentices trying to be like him and he having the ultimate "you're fired" authority sounds to me that it's all about him. LOL. 

Trump is an authoritarian who leans toward fascism.  Sure a lot of people agree with that kind of authoritarianism.

On a personal level there is really no argument that he is a consummate liar, a bully, a misogynist and has a high degree of narcissism.

You have a lot in common with him I'm sure. You're like a little Trump wanna be always talking about yourself, bragging, trying to control the narrative.  Think about it.  How many gambling sites have you left or been asked to leave because people can't stand your rhetoric and your BS.  You should really look in the mirror and ask yourself why people don't like you.

(The above is from Jimske)
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This is my response:

Sure there are some people that don't like me, I am outspoken, been there and done most of that type of guy, so what.  I have plenty that do like me, we are not in a friendship contest or popularity contest here as far as I know.  We discuss gambling and casinos, shoot--most husbands and wives cannot even have a decent conversation about money. 

You are pretty much exactly right.  I was joking about the show, you took the line  throw out there, hook--line and sinker 1,000%.

As far as the other sites, Sonya is a huge pig and it got very personal with her after I fueled war chests and done numerous other tasks and extra curricular activities with and for her.  She is a pig and nothing but.  She gave me a settlement to go away and part friends.  I went away but she is a pig--did I say that already?  I have my reasons.  IMO and my experience, nothing to do with BetSelection, etc.  As far as Andrew, AKA Shifter, I gambled with him and knew him from Sonya's board along with Rich from California.  Andrew is young and there are lots of personal and business problems on his end during this time we knew each other and meet a couple of times in Vegas with or without Rich (VegasBJ), about the time he started his own board that he shut down, etc.  As far as WoV, I am not even going to get into it, purely consumer'ish, non technical, chit chit pass the breeze stuff,  but Axelwolf and The Wizard, etc.  It is okay, no problem.  I was recently invited to go on BeatTheCasino and copied and pasted some articles from here around the time Vic was bringing this board down.  One of Keven's close members squared off on me and the others joined, but anyone that doesn't immediately join their $50.00 a month exclusive club is pushed into the corner and ridden.  I demanded with 3 maybe four cell phone texts to Kevin to remove my 5 postings on his site and he attempted to have his local police department issue a warrant fro my arrest for threats, harassment and other criminal charges, etc.  Anyone with any knoweldge of the game of baccarat that goes on that site and does not subscribe will not last.  But I found one his members that colludes with him was previously colluding with another person and another board and that other person now has in excess of $500,000.00 of casino markers unpaid in Vegas as several properties.  Great, what's the problem?  Oh, let's teach you how to run with the real professionals, pay us only $50.00 a month and we will fuel you up, etc.  But if you know whom the people are and some of their past, someone with the knoweldge is very dangerous to them.  What else?  You have any other problem yourself? 

And in reality, I do nothing different than you and Mike and Blue Angel do to people in a way.  I just do it to their face and do it while the lights are on and they are awake.  Not, when the lights are off, in the back door, PM's and Emails, rumors and acting like the almighty intellect that is a master of mathematics and other subjects with years and years of study, research and sworn to secrecy with holy grails, that can never be divulged but are known to a certain few, etc., etc.   And yet, even when you guys do not agree or enjoy the member or poster, you still read all of his posts and chase him around to get in every belittling, chastising, humiliating and degrading comment, statement or innuendo you can--then flip the tables and say, hey it is you and no one likes you, etc.  Why do you even read my stuff or respond?  You would not pick up a book you dislike the author, keep reading and waste your time--would you? 

Quote from: Xander on June 01, 2018, 06:42:06 PM
Ok, I get it.  Some of you aren't "mathboyz.". Going out on a limb though, I'm going to assume that at least some of you that aren't "mathboyz" are hopefully at least "literate boyz.". If you are, then why do you assume that all of the experts and mathematicians are wrong, based on what they've written?  After all, they comprehend the math and basic probability, but you guys don't since you're not one of the "mathboyz!" 

If I were you, I think I'd make an effort to learn the math and basic probability, rather than trying to make it cool to be ignorant.   

Gizmo,

Either you have the edge or you don't.  You can't beat a negative expectation game in the long run for the same reason that you can't multiply a negative number times a positive number and produce a positive outcome.  Money management, gaming discipline don't make a dent in the long run expectation.

Sorry, just the facts

-Xander
Literate and I don't suck at math!

you're actually quite correct. The problem is the people who are winning, like me, I'm not winning because I have an edge that cannot be discerned by mathematics. We are guessing. But we are guessing based on signatures AND property betting techniques.  MM is part of that.  At least that's how I do it.

Today I only won 44 hands out of 92- 47.8% but still had a pretty good profitable day.  I was explaining the way I bet and where I bet to a guy sitting next to me. I was telling him that what I look for is consistency.  They were difficult to choose because the consistency didn't last that long and when that happens you got to change and be careful how you bet because the change may just end up going south. But generally we get enough consistency to make a profit if we're betting properly.

I know there's people in here that talk about triggers. In my mind a trigger is something that precipitates a future outcome. If you can do that and have a trigger then it's up to you to show it and prove it. If you can't then of course it's nonsense and just guessing. Gizmo said one time what's wrong with guessing? Well, nothing.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on June 01, 2018, 01:42:16 PM

I thought you left forum for good, how come still here?

LMAO.  You really expected him to just moderate?

Glen has finally wiggled his way into being the decider, ruler of the roost, king of the castle, . . . Very "Trumpian."  Notice how EVERY post must be about him in some way - even in his reply to the above!!!!!  So now we have a moderator who is a control freak, narcissistic bully.

At the same time Glen has no problem making condescending and/or sarcastic remarks about how others perceive and play the game.

Jimske

Quote from: Blue_Angel on May 26, 2018, 02:34:12 PM

Furthermore, all numbers are the same and are not the same on the same time!

If we consider them as static and fixed probabilities then are all the same, but what makes the difference is their condition, they all transit through all phases...and that is what someone should aim for, the tendencies/phases rather than the numbers themselves.

The progression must be adjusted according the expectation and the expectation must adapt the tendencies.
Which tendencies?
Those which we encounter on every session.

Well said.  allow me to repeat. "The progression must be adjusted according the expectation and the expectation must adapt the tendencies."