You guys haven't been around long enough to see a hustle when you see one? 

I wasn't paying that much attention.  Wasn't he making claims to profit 3 units a shoe flat with MM and some subjective leave the table "when things don't look right" or "when things aren't going well"  ?

I get that it's fun to look at systems and for $10 bucks it's not going to break anybody's bank.  So at least it wasn't an Ellis scam or others selling stuff for hundreds and thousands.  So he sells a few hundred books - more power to him.  After all $10 bucks for the HG who is going to complain?

Since Andy's wife (ahem) bought him the book maybe he will now go over the method here so you guys can have some fun figuring the puzzle out. 

J

PS Is there spell check here?

Quote from: alrelax on May 24, 2016, 10:57:09 PM
There are very limited shoes we can capitalize on, at least with a decent ROI in the HL's.  I am NOT talking about the main floor, buy in with $200 to $400 or so and make $100 or $150 and walk.  I am talking about buying in with $10k to $50k and making say, $10 to $20k.  It is tough!  I am not referring to kamikaze attempts either of $5k or $10k one or two wagers.  I am talking about $300 to $1,000 average wagers. 

So you're talking about a spread of a little  more than 3:1.  Let's say 300-1200 for a spread of 4:1.  What's the average bet size with that kind of spread?  450? 600? maybe?  To make 10k then need to win 20 more bets than lose at $500 in a good session if flat bet.  But you're not talking flat betting I don't think.  So do you think a 4:1 spread can accomplish this?  I suppose it can happen in a good high% win rate.

So today real numbers made 22 units in 99 bets place with average bet size of about 2.2 units (I added them up just now).  I came out with a 58.5% win rate.  No, not $500  a hand    So what is the expected win rate?  What I'm getting at is that win rate is not achievable for any significant number of hands so  . . . if you can't get a real high % win rate then a 4:1 spread is not big enough to achieve the wins.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 24, 2016, 11:12:14 PM
Of course it's complicated.

After all we're talking about the possibility to regularly beat an EV- game.

I guess this is a long winded way of asking don't you have to figure a win rate to establish the bet spread?

Quote from: 21 Aces on May 05, 2016, 12:37:57 AM
I guess I will have to pop the cherry for this forum.  NERDS

For a guy who refuses to disclose the tiniest detail about his own play and contributes absolutely nothing of import about the game you sure ask a lot of questions of other players.

You got big brass all right.  Big brass from a guy who rarely plays but feels empowered enough to continually  insult members.

Maybe you and big Al can get together and write a dime romance novel.  That seems to be your real speed.

Quote from: ADulay on March 21, 2016, 06:48:49 PM
It's funny you should mention that.

I've got this nice pile of $100 bills sitting on the shelf (gambling money, obviously) and every now and then I wonder just how many of those are counterfeit.

As they only get used at the casino, I'm not too worried about it but if I had to take them to the bank for some odd reason, it wouldn't surprise me if a few of them are "duds".

AD

Yeah!  Same here!  This wasn't my bank - I gave some to my wife and she put them in her account.  So I went out and bought an iodine pen and checked the rest.  No negatives but I read that sometimes the iodine pen not foolproof.

I had a $100.00 bill that was picked up by my bank as being counterfeit.  It came from Mohegan Sun.  The FBI will be contacting me.  Maybe they should raid Mo Sun?

Quote from: soxfan on March 19, 2016, 05:15:29 PM
I tested his style of play bucking up against what would equal about six month of dice action and it was good for about 33 units profit per hour, hey hey.

It better have a big return!  ROI and all that.  Deep progressions are going to have a high average bet size and therefore when win should hit a high per hour rate.

Quote from: Albalaha on March 17, 2016, 05:30:59 PM
D'alembert or its other variants do work upto a particular stage and is not meant to work well in long run thereby. When there is a very bad stretch going like 25 wins in 100 spins or anything alike, it goes so bad that later it never gets to recover, in any manner. After extreme bad sessions, very good ones can not be expected always and in expectation of getting "corrective" wins, we get "not so good" time and "below average" times that makes it failure.

I guess you weren't paying attention.  The D'Alembert like ALL progressions are failures without being able to take a measurement of losing trends and make adjustments.  My example above is just to demonstrate such an adjustment.  When one uses the -X, +X; FLAT or a variant offset it ceases to be a D'Alembert.

You can have the last word.  I just wanted to add my 2 cents about the progressions.

J

Quote from: Albalaha on September 27, 2014, 08:54:53 AM
                     While it is a topic that deserves too much attention and innovation, I see absolutely no work on it.
Why can't we create an MM that fights with randomness for long sustaining through worst of it and ultimately winning when variance cools down to the level of the house edge alone or closer?If you analyse any bet, you will find that after a reasonable span of time, a bet gets smooth enough to be beaten. All the extremes of variance are temporary and gradually every bet confirms to the mathematical expectancy attached to it, including the house edge. We see all the progressions meant for few spins or a small session. Have anybody ever thought of a long term progression? By long term, I mean like a progression for an EC for 500 spins or 1000 spins for a dozen or may be until we get a net win.

                         Long term doesn't only mean a single long session of thousands of spins but could be for 10 or 20 sessions or more taken together as long run.

It seems to me that the problem lies in the impossible task of measuring variance.  We can only guess at it and perhaps calculate the outer limits of SD.

Labby, Fib, Marty, etc. out?  Yes.  D'Alembert?  Not so fast.  Sorry to be a one horse show but this endeavor always brings me back to S. Bailey contemplating the flaw of D'Alembert and refining it to adjust to variance with various mechanical or semi-mechanical progressions.  A favorite of mine (and his) is -X, +X; Flat.  Whereby we go up 1 on a loss and if win stay at that level until a loss then go up 1 again.  Of course adjustments can be made to taste and not always have the same unit size for both sides.

Variance comes in as a matter of perception or SD if one could calculate risk of ruin for a win/loss "likely" sequence.  So how does one accomplish this to gain a net profit?

It's mostly guessing of course but there are limitations that one can count on.  Baccarat shoes:  I know that in the 5000 + shoes I've logged the lowest I've ever gone is a 32% hit rate within about 60 or 70 "spins" and that is rare.  The overwhelming majority of closed spin sessions are going to be between 47% and 53% I'd guess.

So when you begin to go south you got to increase but only to a point.  But when you go too far south you got to decrease.  At some point when a north trend begins you must increase.  Maybe incorporating rules such as Seth uses with "Turnaround" or his latest stuff to help soften the curve.  Half back, Cut back, dump and pump . . . ??  Big bankroll required.

This whole concept reminds me of "Price Cost Averaging" (not Dollar Cost Averaging) whereby algorithm used to buy as stocks drop and sell as they rise.  Works wonderfully for cyclical movements such as we are dealing with.

J

Quote from: Blue_Angel on February 27, 2016, 02:34:56 PM
I totally agree with you with only one exception;
You cannot hide from a casino, when a professional plays regularly (5+ days/week) the casino knows what he is doing (method,balance) and if by any chance you get in their focus they run background checks too...
Even when you have the invincible/infallible method you cannot hide from the casino because the personel behind the cams are always there, players at the tables might change from time to time but not them, they have a file on every noteworthy player.

When I say hide I simply mean hide my win/loss stuff.  Granted it's pretty easy at my level in my crowded casino.  Much harder for big bettors.  The other day I had to call the floor over to make sure they had the proper average bet size!  I got into a big argument and they finally changed it!

Yep. I never question anyone's statements of winning and losing.  But I do take them with a grain of salt if they don't keep good accounts.  I often times hear "I know I win more than lose." or "I'm about even." etc. etc.  Generally these people got no real idea, IMO. 

Anyone who has spent hours and years at the tables knows that it's easy to underestimate losses due to fatigue, alcohol maybe?, or just selective memory.  It's easy to rationalize losses by including comped rooms, dinners, gifts, etc.  There was a time when I kept sloppy records and soon found out that I was confused about my own standings.

Maybe it's just my suspicious nature but even at my small level of play I hide winnings from the casino.  I just don't want them knowing my business.  There are times when I play almost daily so it's imperative for me to keep a ledger every single day.

I don't include comps but I understand why one might.  Personally the only comps that I value are for items that I would purchase if I weren't gambling.  When I was playing BJ I used to get thousands of points and spend them on Christmas gifts every year (until they froze my account).  So items like that are worthwhile to include in a profit loss statement.  Otherwise, dinners, rooms   Nah, I don't go to the casino for a vacation - I go to the islands!

Quote from: Mr J on February 20, 2016, 02:57:39 PM
Old thread but still great.

Ken

Agreed!  I'd like to add that we should learn to ask ourselves important questions WHILE we are playing to make sure we are keeping to the game plan.

Quote from: Gerard711 on December 18, 2015, 10:21:37 PM
Thank you G8player you were a mentor in gaining the discipline I so needed. I play that tight game  I learned it from you and your posts.

Just saw this older post.  There's other ways to play using a spread and loose selection but it takes some stones and a big bankroll.  In general a loose betting style is the number one reason the casinos taking 20-25% from this 50-50 game.  The reason is simple.  You can't come back from a big bet with your base bets.  Keeping bets tight means it is much harder to get too deep in the hole. 

Quote from: RouletteGhost on February 05, 2016, 01:35:49 AM
the problem is any long thread that has potential always turns into a pissing match so people stop posting

True, no doubt.  There are other reasons.  Many of these topics get re-hashed over and over.  The same old becomes tedious and uninteresting.  Another reason may be that most people got their own ideas, methods and are more interested in playing/experimenting with their own stuff.  Lots of people going their own way.

J

Quote from: Rashid on January 24, 2016, 12:29:57 PM
Sounds like you have a dose of the "crazed Trbfla", where everybody is somebody.  Scotty ain't him, guaranteed....

Okay then.  It just bothered me that I seen that same avatar before - I think on the old BF but I guess I can't remember - I thought I did.

It finally hit me.  It was Eirscott that used that same Cobain avatar.  Coincidence? or same guy?