Quote from: Bally6354 on March 02, 2019, 03:56:39 PM
I noticed the original post was missing and so nobody would really have the foggiest what it was all about.
Here is the 'wayback' link so anybody can read what was originally said in the opening post.

Here is the missing first post of the thread...



This analysis is based on a single-zero wheel flat betting on the even chances.


Suppose you were able to reduce the length of your losing runs -  how would your edge vary depending on the longest losing run? To put it another way, what should the length of the longest losing run be to ensure that you would make profit flat-betting?


The analysis assumes that there is no limit to the length of the winning runs. I wrote a program which generated even-chance outcomes and varied the length of the longest losing run from 10 to 1, and for each value I calculated the player's edge.


Here's the code:


Code: [Select]

program advantage;
var
   i: integer;


procedure get_advantage(maxL: integer);
const
  n = 100000000;
var
  i, Lrun, w, l: longint;
  Pw: real;
begin
  w:= 0; l:= 0;
  Lrun:= 0;
  randomize;
  for i:= 1 to n do begin
    if random(36) > 18 then begin
       Lrun:= 0;
       inc(w)
    end
    else begin
       inc(Lrun);
       if Lrun <= maxL then
          inc(l);
    end
  end;
  Pw:=  w/(w + l);
  write('Max losing run = ', maxL);
  writeln(', HA = ', (Pw*100 - 50):4:3)
end;


// main
begin
  for i:= 1 to 10 do
    get_advantage(i);
  readln
end.           

and here are the results:

Max losing run = 1, PA = 15.451
Max losing run = 2, PA = 5.357
Max losing run = 3, PA = 1.194
Max losing run = 4, PA = -0.764
Max losing run = 5, PA = -1.723
Max losing run = 6, PA = -2.229
Max losing run = 7, PA = -2.493
Max losing run = 8, PA = -2.627
Max losing run = 9, PA = -2.704
Max losing run = 10, PA = -2.736




For losing runs of length 10 (or more), the expected PA (player advantage) of approximately -2.7% applies. As you shorten the longest losing run, the PA increases, but it's not until you get to a max losing run of 3 that it becomes positive!


So, if you can find a way to get your maximum losing run down to 3, you will have an advantage of about 1.2%. Alternatively, you could try to recover all losing runs above 3 by some sort of progression (good luck with that).


It's quite surprising how many losses you need to eliminate in order to get an advantage.

Quote from: CT70 on April 16, 2019, 09:28:43 PM
Lugi, I don't know why you are ranting to me about BTC. You're barking up the wrong tree. I pretty much agree with everything you said about Keith and his forum. For the last 2 years though, there were a group of successful players including myself, teaching a lot of great things to baccarat enthusiasts. Unfortunately, Keith himself couldn't learn what we were teaching so he chose to take another route with his forum. He took the high negative progressions route, where he advocates starting with 1000 unit bank rolls, to win only ONE unit.  That's when all the successful players walked away, since we frown on high negative progressions.

I don't need to validate what I say to you, but as a courtesy and just so you know, I will. I don't use or endorse any of the systems you mentioned, 40, 40A, NOR, OTBL, TBL and 87%
I have my own way of playing. However, with your response to my post(s), it's evident that you don't believe a word I say or are even interested. In that respect, you are just like Keith, because he couldn't do what we do, therefore he thought it was impossible. Moreover, you are like 99% of the players I meet in the casino, in that have been playing 10s of years, you know it all and that there's is nothing that you could possibly learn from anyone else.
After 30 years of owning a forum, Keith is still playing $5 units. That being said, if you were the successful player that you say you are you would be playing full time, and would not be content with 5K a week over a hundred shoes. I did the math, you make $50 a shoe.
You don't need to respond to this or any of my future posts. My posts are for everyone else who enjoys the experience I have to offer.

You were defending BTC a few posts back, what is one to presume, I took you for a shill?  I watched a YouTube video today and one of your shoes was mentioned, CT70. I have come to the conclusion, Keith of more of the sales guy than a player.

I assure you, I am far from 99% of the players you've shared a table with.  Sometimes I don't even make $50 per shoe, but it was good of you to take two separate posts from two separate threads and make assumptions, occasionally it ends negative, I am an extremely cautious player, even with a negative progression.

Glad we agree about those systems you mention, all scams invented by the old bugger. The 87.5% understanding does have value though, depends how you apply that knowledge.

Welcome to the board, trust you won't mind if I comment IF I should happen to disagree with any future posts you decide to make, it is what debate is all about.  I'm not knocking you personally, rather the silliness and sham of paying money to chat Baccarat over at BTC.

Thanks Alex, wasn't sure what kind of reception it would get.

Their YouTube channel tells anybody possessing just a smidgen sense, all they need to know.  It is not a case of BTC withholding the pertinent information and saving it for the board, nope, rather what have publicly published is just invented hog-wash, it is irrelevant fairy tales 

OTBL? (An Ellis creation) All it wins against is a series of 2's, call it for what it is, "follow repeating two's, because TBL in other words DBL 'Decision Before Last', is taking you to the cleaners.    Yet they have the audacity to charge to attend a seminar to be told this stuff.  Gone are the days when you could read all this on the web, some good forums have bitten the dust. 

It was really laughable watching them dissect shoes, "oh OTBL lost 5 in a row there, but TBL was ok, but lost 3 in a row here, System 40, did this and System 40A / NOR did that, conclusion, nothing, other than placing emphasis on prior hands, when IT DOESN'T EXIST.   Seriously, what is the point, the next shoe is going to be completely different and that shoe being discussed you will never play again in your life-time.

Keith the programmer and former protege of Ellis, learnt a lot from one of the biggest internet snake oil salesmen, Clifton Davies 80 years old who tried to re-write BJ basic strategy and tell scholar they were wrong. Scammed hundreds if not thousands of players for many decades. Tells you all you need to know. Keith following in Ellis's footsteps, making a living promoting and inventing mumbo-jumbo about Baccarat.

I have just watched about a dozen BTC videos on YouTube, I feel compelled to comment, nice for all of them to have a meet up in Macau, I'll give them that.

I strongly suggest that membership fees are keeping Keith afloat, not his Baccarat prowess.  The videos are a utter load of mumbo-jumbo, smoke and mirrors.  Shoe trends! If a side is ahead by 3, then bet that side until 3u ahead. Maybe he hasn't seen many shoes start with a streak then chop for 6 hands, then the other side streaks, nothing but fairy tales.

Expectations of 18 singles, 9 doubles, 4 or 5 triples in a shoe, top 3 lines consist of 87% of all hands, all count for NOTHING, other than to make the person making those comments appear smart. Published and discussed at length on GG and other defunct Baccarat forums.

None of this info is of any help at the tables, not in the slightest.  I am well aware all of these stats, they mean diddly squat as shoe unfolds, they predict nothing, they do not help other than to look back in amazement at the end of a shoe, Then it is 'couldva, wouldva, shouldav'.

So what the top 3 lines consist of 87% of all hands over time, basically some old fella is trying to appear clever, basic maths 101 stuff. maybe he knows about the bet selection OLD, so what happens when a shoe produces a 4 by 4 streak, or worst, nope that part wasn't addressed.

System 40, 40A, NOR, OTBL, TBL, side count, shoe bias, discussed at length, doesn't help you one bit when the shoe has finished, all taken straight out of Ellis books of fairy tales.  It is nothing but mumbo-jumbo that is being promoted. While shoe analysis may help if you have had your behind handed to you on plate, But they offer nothing in term of the next shoe you are playing, It is so easy to play shoes after the event, pure nonsense, aimed at the clueless. One wonders if Keith even plays, there was one instance in a video, he said the Banker goes down to 4, he couldn?t even count properly, as it went down to 3, my Lord.

What is really alarming is one particular YouTube video regarding clumping, Keith doesn't even know what the most significant cards are in a Baccarat shoe.  It has been mathematically proven in several places the 4 and 6 are the most significant cards, not that this info will help you in the slightest, so to try and add credence to the spouted nonsense he attempts to introduce BlackJack theories into the game of Baccarat, drear me..

Big cards left, good for the Bank and vice-versa, again, having your head filled with such info will not help while you are at the table. However if you are not aware of this stuff, it makes for a fantastic sales pitch. Let's face it, Baccarat tables the world over are not only occupied by players who have zero methodology, but are also desperate, an endless stream of mugs, willing to fork out anything in the hope they might turn around their predicament. Good grief the YouTube videos must sound like music to their ears. The YouTube comments provide insight to what is the true reality. It is not surprising why one of BTC prominent members is branching out in some vain attempt to entice gullible players to financing Keith?s exploits.   

I really do hope that behind closed doors of that forum is more substantial than the reflection of what is portrayed on that channel, otherwise members (a few I am acquainted with) are being taken for a ride.

My impression is that BTC is simply rehashing is what was discussed to death on GamblersGlen circa 2005, they are promoting myths for a fee. Unfortunately the GG site has a virus, if your Anti-virus is robust, you can ignore the warning and scan your PC afterwards, or even better if you run a virtual VMware machine, you can read and digest it all for free, saving yourself the $99 entry fee..

If you are a newbie to gambling forums, then this is heaven, people will believe what they want  to believe, what they NEED to believe, promising so much, delivering so little, like a well oiled machine, snake oil that it. Information that you may have never heard before, you're going to be rich, become a ProPlayer, sorry to burst your bubble, it is far from the truth, rather just a bunch of players paying for the privilege to discuss the same load of nonsense ECD was renowned for. Same song different organ grinder, a superior salesperson who learnt the ropes from one of the biggest deluded system seller crooks Ellis Clifton Davies.

Excuse the rant, but the YouTube channel is a load of waffle, the seminars are a load of waffle, aimed at those whom know no better, of which there are many. Win, win situation, unfortunately and SAD.
 
Go and check out their YT channel, then ask yourself, how gullible am I.

Quote from: CT70 on April 16, 2019, 03:42:20 PM
Luigi, you are correct in that in Baccarat, the overall (PA)player advantage over millions of hands is close to 50%. I will give you that. However, with all due respect, that statistic is not valid for the shoe that?s in front of you now. The shoe in front of you is unique. You will not beat it using the historical statistics of the game.
Baccarat is all about ?determining the length of events and their frequency of occurrence, thru use of statistics?. Once you can do that WITHOUT using a progression (meaning by flat betting only) you can become a consistent winner. That takes years to accomplish. Studying thousands of screenshots etc. The dedication required is no less than what an Olympic medalist would have to go thru to win a medal. Only a hand full of people can do it and most people would put what?s required in the ?too hard? basket. Most would rather just play with an outrageous negative progression to compensate for their inferior hit rate (HR), while hoping that their wins outnumber their losses.
I know you probably think I?m full of stuff because you?ve never witnessed or met a consistent player that can do what I just said. That?s ok, I?m not offended.
All I?m saying is that it is doable. The question is how many of you will put in the hard yards to get there? How many even have the time? All the ones I know are over age 60. It seems that?s when they have the time to really study the game.

That is utter codswallop, it's like a sales pitch. Is Keith in need of more BR, one wonders.

I average approx 100 shoes per week. I know darn well statistics count for nothing as a shoe unfolds.  So please bear me the BS.

Yet you contradict yourself in the next paragraph. Baccarat is all about statistics, for any given session it is not. I've also studied this game for well over a decade and then some. Negative progressions do not need to be outrageous, I use them all the time and rarely bet more than 10 units. You are talking to somebody who has done it, 34 consecutive winning sessions, turning $1k into over $40k.

I'm well acquainted with the 87%, something that was done to death on GG over a decade ago, age has nothing to do with the ability to study  game.

I did construct a response having watched over a Doz of BTC youtube videos in the last 24 hours, which I did not post, but shall edit accordingly and post shortly. 

Quote from: CT70 on September 22, 2018, 04:51:10 PM
Glen,for your information, BTC does not sell or endorse systems. It is just a forum where players can chat about baccarat. Novices have access to professional players who enjoy helping new players. Like any business, the owner Keith is entitled to charge a fee for membership. He must be doing something right if 42% of his members are paying members.
There are several professional players there that play for a living.
I think it's time your members stop bashing BTC and call it what it really is, "a great Baccarat forum where you can learn from professional players".

I've played this game professionally, I've financed world trips frequenting VIP rooms. Last I heard, BTC were still promoting NOR or some derivative.

Let's not mask the fact, it is still a negative expectant game, therefore some form of MM is required, there is simply no way around that.   Also any, all systems when run against a set of truth tables, resolve to 50% without exception, nothing else can possibly exist.   The only thing at can be defined is the losing pattern, for what that is worth.  All that remains, is the defining what you are prepared to lose against and money management options.

So please, do share what the 42% are paying for, what are they getting?  A chance to chat Baccarat? 

Not specifically bashing BTC, but those of us whom play Baccarat, should never pay for anything, never pay for any system, not a single one, mathematically everything resolves to a 50/50 state, it is impossible for it to be otherwise.   Don't pay for money management strategies, because they are "have been" on the web at one stage or other, including risk of ruin aimed primarily at BJ players.

Quote from: Jimske on April 08, 2019, 01:24:04 AM
Agreed.  It's  about  betting.  Keeping it simple with proper staking plan - knowing when and how to recoup  if losing and. walking with winnings.

Betting the 3rd line only a good  idea.  Leave the singles.  Don't  need them.  Consider playing side independent with this strategy.

I didn't state betting the 3rd line only, rather TRIGGER off the 3rd line.  IOW, use the 3rd line to determine whether to switch from opposite to same as last.  Example, 3rd line hits, make no change from opposite if that is what your doing at the time.  If 3rd line hits consecutively, consider switching to same as last. 

Baccarat can be a real simple game for those betting most hands in a given shoe.  No need to complicate the game with irreverential info.

In the end you the player are either betting the same as the last hand, betting the repeat, or you are betting the opposite of the last hand. So it is either FLD or OLD.

It is worth noting, that series of 2's behaves the exact same if you the player were betting FLD or OLD. (LW or WL).

Therefore to simplify your decision making, it may be prudent to trigger off the 3rd line.  For all your rationale, it basically comes down to bet the opposite or bet the same. While trying to avoid getting done by any switch.  To give yourself a bit of leeway of being hit by a switch, you need depth in your staking plan.

Any delayed progressions will give you the player cushion.  IMO this game is and always will be more of a staking game than any attempt to guess wrong or right.  Have a decent staking plan and it doesn't matter losing 3, 4 or 5 on the bounce.   

You guys need to have my problems trying to get a game.

Unable to get access to my local casino (no viable reason given, other than they don't like how I played perhaps), another local casino have removed the game al together.  So have to travel to the formers sister casino (Gentings) 30 miles away. I take the train which don't run 24 hours, so either have to rush to catch the last train before midnight or stay until 5:30am, no matter if I've hit my goal target.  I dislike like playing after getting what I went for, because the longer you play the more difficult self control becomes, besides who wants to risk turning a profit into a loss 

I have not had to re-buy at all this year and am making 100%minimum of my buyin, usually 8 ~ 12 shoes per session, it is a slog, but safe, the ultimate grind. 

Decided to re-activate my Grosvenor online account today, live table from Victoria London, why not play at home when I'm too buggered to travel, for some extra extra tax free cash.

Played first shoe no drama's, won 13 bets lost 5. 

Second shoe, I placed a bet 4 bloody times and was logged out of the site, EACH TIME THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN WINNING BETS.  B@stards, I finished the second shoe winning 7 and losing 1 bet, should ve been W11 L1.  Complained like hell to their support people, they will investigate, meanwhile, in total disgust I withdrew my deposit and winning.

Wasn't playing big, very small in fact, maybe it was nothing, maybe they didn't like the win ratio and the fact I sit out a lot of hands.

All based on Mathematics, couldn't care less what pattern(s) "random binary decisions" are producing, as they are IMO meaningless.

Anyway, if sputnik reads this post, I have a question for you (or anybody who fancies it).

What is the ecart (SD) of a 128/1 outcome occurring 2 times and 3 times within 8 trials?  I'm curious!!!

In a perfect scenario a 128/1 trial would occur twice per 129 trials, however with random outcomes, nothing is perfect, anything can occur, as in multiple occurrences of 128/1 trials within a small sample of 7/8 attempts.  I was interested in the actual SD.   

Trust that makes sense and wasn't too confusing, back to the train station tomorrow. 


   

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on October 09, 2018, 11:29:38 PM
Forget the 12.

Example.
We choose to progressively wager vs the very first 5 hands happened in the past shoe.
Say it was BPPBB
Now we bet PBBPP
Odds to win are 31/32, actually such odds are slightly inferior as a betting sequence dictating to wager more P than B will be less likely to show up.

I've played many shoes where the first 5, 10, 14 hands (sometimes including ties) have mirrored the previous shoe exactly.

I've also included strategies were once a 5 hand sequence has failed (LLLLL), then to play the exact 5 hand sequence in the exact same spot on the next shoe at a much larger chip level, only for it to fail AGAIN.  Yeah crazy but true and incredibly frustrating.

Afterwards when you think things over, you finally realize (or maybe not) that you the player are introducing a human element into the game were it doesn't exist..

The cards of the subsequent shoe process no knowledge whatsoever of the prior shoe, any patterns of the prior shoe, or were they occurred. Yet you as the player have applied some mystical expectation that because of what occurred in 1 shoe, it shouldn't occur again, sorry to burst your bubble, but that is pure fallacy.

Also from my own vast table experience, risking 5 bets to win 1 single bet, is not a good option, unless you are extremely clever with your staking options, such as running multiple wagering options, maybe at different stake levels. 

Again I know what I'm talking about when it comes to this type of play, having played strategies that risked 6 losing bets just to win 1, very successfully a few years back, winning 20+ consecutive sessions profiting over $40K in that period, as well as assisting a friend turn a negative life time casino balance into a positive balance.      

Because LLLLW, LLLW, LLLLW for example,, means the bet selection is working, as it is not failing, yet the win to loss ratio horrendous.  5 Column bet options, I've used them extensively.  I agree regarding the comment implementing virtual losses, cuts down the number of bets placed in a negative expectation game, requires more patience from the player, although if you have a very big bankroll, you can circumvent this by incorporating two games into one and decent manipulation of the ratios between the 2 staking levels.  

Quote from: Nickmsi on July 17, 2018, 01:12:23 AMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDw2Pu0-H4g

This video very quickly confirms the advantage of the bet selection OLD.  If we equate the finding to Baccarat, TH (in essence a chop) is will occur twice as frequent as any double HH, which of course s confirmed by the Zumma stats (50% of all hands are chops v's 25% of all hands being a single repeater). 

Just like to add, any and all losing patterns can be defined, we as system players can pick and choose our nemesis pattern, hence we should avoid those methods that fail against the most common occurring patterns, which is why I thought VDW was not a practical option to take to the gaming tables. 

Apologies if my response is dated.

Quote from: Nickmsi on August 13, 2018, 03:18:25 AM
Hi Lugi

That is exactly what we are doing.  Playing on line with a bot in small sessions with a negative progression.

With the Triplets as the bet selection we have won 62 out of 63 sessions.

Cheers

Nick

Well done, with your coding prowess you deserve it.

Quote from: Nickmsi on August 11, 2018, 07:43:05 PM

They showed the bias when applying Fractions to the 3 spin/hand sets as follows:

OOO NB NB NB
OOX NB NB NB         Fractions
OXO NB L NB      L     0
OXX NB L NB      L     0
XOO NB W NB      W     1
XOX NB L NB      L     0
XXO NB W L      WL     .5
XXX NB W W      WW    1
                      2.5/6

If you can understand it then � You�re a better man than I am, Gunga Din!�  But what I do understand is how to test systems.

Exactly. 

It makes no sense to me either.

I will make a suggestion, testing to a degree is a waste of time, something is positive after 10,000 or 1M spins, what about those chunks in your results that inflict massive draw-downs or wipe the player out.  Might work gambling online with a bot.  Maybe change your focus to controlling the LIAR's and aiming for a 45~50% strike rate in the short term, than all you would have to do is wrap a mild negative progression around whatever it is, much more realistic 

When you have some spare time
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/CoinTossing.html
(doesn't work for Baccarat BTW)

Quote from: owenslv on June 08, 2018, 03:07:36 AM
Hi Mike;

"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "

Of course you are technically correct, but practically in a random game like Baccarat, what else to do we have but past results to make an intelligent, informed guess ?

If you take for example a set of combination tables covering 8 ~ 12 hand, you will see it is more likely a trend will not continue than continue. However what constitutes a trend is very subjective, I would also lie to add, to bet for the continuous of something, is exactly the same as betting for something not to happen.

Quote from: owenslv on June 08, 2018, 03:07:36 AM
Mike, I also believe it is totally true that you can not predict with mathematical certainty the next event of a random game. However it is also true that the random game creates a series of outcomes that do arrange themselves in patterns which may be useful in bet selection.

Perfect predictions --NO. Helpful indicators -- PERHAPS.

in reality we only have to increase our bet selection process ever so little to become profitable and if random patterns can be utilized then it makes sense to use them, wouldn't you agree ? 

Not really, if it is not predicting with absolute certainty, then what is it achieving?  60/40, 55/45? that is not possible.  Only on very rare occasions have I throw in speculation bets, for example wierd shoes where there has been a strange abundance of a streak length, so I might bet that say the 10th streak of 3won't stop at 3, generally I try not to, but occasionally get sucked in when I once such thing.

Quote (Now if we could create a mathematical algorithm..)

Seriously? 

It already exists (honestly), it was posted on either the GG site or defunct Project Sydney forum by a fellow called Sam Redman.  The SO method it was called, it captures every possible trend a shoe throws up, it takes 1 or 2 hands before it self-adjusts to capture whatever the trend is, then you win everyhand so long as the trend continues.  Before you get overly excited, recap what I posted above, a trend is less likely to continue than continue.

Oh my word, Bamboozle by BS...

Quote from: Mr J on July 23, 2018, 02:43:22 AM
I agree Mike. Tell it like it is sir. 

Ken

Seconded