Two to One 

Read another thread, I see Alrelax is the new owner, probably explains the recent "muted" members    Shutting down the dissenters is not good, then again didn't snowball (aka Xander) start censoring posts over at GG, which lead to the death of that board.  Alas now Glen owns this, therefore  he can do whatever he likes as he paid for it, same applies to board members.

Now I'm curious, how much did this site cost?  It's registered worth is a few dollars more gamblingforums, approx $450, generating $1 per day  .

Quote from: alrelax on June 16, 2018, 05:08:30 PM
But since the forum has a new owner,

I missed the announcement, who is the new owner?  YOU??


Having browsed the new rule section.

Number #3 struck me

#3  To maintain harmony on the forum we ask that all members refrain from making any comments about ethnicity, religion or politics.  Such comments can so often lead to inflammatory, defensive posts from others. We don't want such a thing happening here.

Are you serious?

Quote from: Blue_Angel on May 09, 2018, 02:09:29 AM

@ Luigi,

You might have seen streaks of 5 and 6 in a row back to back, BUT how frequently??
I guess are not so ordinary...!

Not very frequent, however the point I was making is, how many losing bets would it cost you, if it happened once?  You could end up chasing for quiet some time thereafter.

@as  I found your reply confusing I will re-read it a few times before responding.   

Quote(there are intricate card distribution issues that confirm this I do not want to talk about).

Are you referring to the 'not so secret', "when high cards leave the shoe it favours the Player side and when low cards leave the deck it favours the Banker side?

Quote from: alrelax on May 08, 2018, 11:50:13 AM
The shoe with 49 hands that was posted (missing the last 30 maybe? or ties and missing some?) anyway, I love a 20 to a 7 case sernario in the first 27 hands, wow.  And like I said in other posts, players are strong in the beginning much higher than 50% of the time.

Thanks for pointing out the number of hands.   I missed a P on the second streak, it actually went to 5 x P. (just noticed you can no longer edit or delete posts after a time period!!) 
I don't record Ties as I don't play them.  All shoes are now 70 hands or under, due to paranoid casino worried about potential card counting with the "Super Egalite", ever since Eliot Jacobson posted how to.  Now a deck is cut from the back, plus they burn cards, which they never did previously, as for this shoe, I exited it early.

Quote from: alrelax on May 08, 2018, 11:25:24 AM
I have found numerous events that happen with great repeatitvness, not that they are guaranteed by any 100% means, but they happen when I play more than 6 times easily out of 10. 

The more events you lists, the more likely you are going to notice something that fits the narrative. Couldn't you isolate just one rare event?  That is just like me saying, after some monster 10+ hand streak, the shoe will now get very choppy, invariably that is usually the case, but I woldn't bank nor play for it.  People see what they want to see, so their beliefs get affirmed.   If you were certain of any one single event, you would wait for it's appearance then hammer it, but we know, you are still placing a 50/50 bet, so we don't.

I'm waiting for ASYM to comment, because I'm not even certain I virtually played the shoe posted corrected, I recall reading something about rare-event, so maybe he'd care to explain.


   

Quote from: Blue_Angel on May 08, 2018, 12:18:36 AM

But if you've waited for one 5 in a row streak and then bet against it, that would have much better probability to win.
If the 5 streak occurs on Player bet that the next time the Player will have whether less or more than 5 in a row, this is applied by betting for Banker the first 4 bets (1,2,4,8) and the final 5th bet (16 units) for the player.
The same goes for the Bankers side too, it's not the same like if we were betting from the start against any 5 streak because we are betting against two 5 streaks to happen consecutive times on the same side (any side).

As much as I'm into probability and expectation.  Back to back five by five, or indeed six by six streaks are also not uncommon.  The question is, when they do inevitably happen, 'how many losing bets' will such an event cost me?

By the way, a Martingale should never be considered as a staking option at the Baccarat table.

Asym'

Here is a 'real' shoe I encountered 24 hrs ago, it is not rare by any standard. 

P Dominated shoes happen a lot, shoe after shoe after shoe, to the degree, makes one wonders if the deck composition is true in order to trip up the Chinese players who the majority bet Banker.  Yet it is, just one of those thing.

Applying your method as I understand it;

PPP (LL)
B
PPPP (LL)
BB
PPPPP (LL)
BBB
P (W)
B
PPPPPPP (LL)
BB
P (W)
B
PP (LW)
BBBB
P (W)
BB
P (W)
BBBB
PPPP (LL)

So the LW string runs;  LLLLLL W LL W LW W W LL = 5W''s vs 11L's


It is easy in hindsight to state, a negative progression (maybe) would be cleared.  What about the mental pressure of really losing 6 bets in a row while actually at the table while watching your chip stack deplete.

Losing 6 bets in a row, then having to place that 7th bet, without knowing if you are going to win the bet, experiencing the mental pressure, will the pain continue?   In this game, anything can and will happen. 

IMO the player can't / shouldn't bet aggressively, because quiet simply "you just never know".  Sure in the shoe above, the 7th bet was won, it could equally been another loss. 

When you can encounter a ratio of 5 vs 11 (31% strike rate), which has the potential to get even worst, one wonders, "is there anything better I could be doing'?  As eluded by BA, wait for 3 or 4 Players then take 2 bites only at betting the cut.

You mention "rare event", what is this rare event?  Did I bet too early, if I made a mistake with my understanding of your strategy by all means correct me.





   

Quote from: Mike on April 29, 2018, 12:59:13 PM
In a negative expectation game like Baccarat you don't get paid fairly when you win, therefore in order to make up for this you must win more hands than probability dictates. However, this can't be done in an essentially random game like baccarat where you can't predict what's going to come out next with any reliability. You certainly can't get an edge by looking at patterns and what's just happened because all patterns are equally likely and past hands don't influence future hands. If follows from this this that there are no "opportunities" to be had. A genuine opportunity can only arise if the probabilities of an event change in your favor and represent "value" (meaning that the probability of a win overcomes the unfair payout).

Since baccarat is like a coin flip in might be easier to understand the principle in those terms. Suppose we agree to play a game of "flip the coin". We take it in turns to call and when I win you pay me $1, but when you win I only pay you 95 cents. Since the probability of either H or T is 0.5, you can surely see that eventually you are going to lose money, UNLESS you can find a way to win more often than 50% of the time (in order to overcome the unfair payout).

How much better than 50% does your probability of winning need to be? If the probability of winning is 50% then your expectation looks like this:

probability of winning * win amount - probability of losing * loss amount

which is 0.5*$0.95 - 0.5*$1 = -$1/40 or 2.5 cents loss per game on average.

Now suppose your probability of winning is not 0.5 but "x". Your probability of losing must therefore be "(1 - x)". With a little algebra you can work out what "x" must be in order to do better than break even.

x*$0.95 - (1 - x)*$1 > 0

$0.95*x - $1 + $1*x > 0

$1.95*x > $1

x > $1/$1.95

x > 20/39 = 0.513

So your probability of winning needs to be at least 51.3% in order to overcome the unfair payout.
Can this be achieved? Actually in coin flipping there is good evidence that the side which shows can be controlled to a certain extent by the flipping technique and the "initial conditions" (the side which is up before you flip), but for casino games it's not so easy.

Unless you can find a way to increase your winning percentage you're just gambling, in which case all I can say is : good luck!

That is a very simplistic way in which to view the game.   I haven't witnessed anybody play the game of Baccarat flat betting, fair to assume we all are aware a negative (or positive)  progression is required.

A 'smart' friend of mine gave me a bet selection (he asked me not to share) which makes mathematical sense, he tested against both Zumma data sets and it ended positive.  I sometimes utilize it when playing solo and am in a position of having to bet every hand (flat betting).  Doesn't seem to work when the shoes are what I would describe as rubbish, but I guess they are just those clusters bombs.

Anyhow, we should all appreciate testing is of limited value, even against a million shoes, other than to provide the player with a feel if you like, of average/expected "losses in a row"  (not withstanding anything can happen in games of independent trials).

We should also be aware that if we had a large enough data set, then no matter what we test, the result is going to be "egalite", in other words "equal".   I'm under no illusion that if ran my current mode of play against 2^70 (1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000 hands), the expected outcome should be 50/50.  Yet that doesn't tell the whole story, if my loss strings are averaging 4LIAR, with the odd 7, then discipline, composure and a risk adverse MM approach will pull you through, if you keep your head and appreciate what is happening is a freak occurrence and you should not expect to see the same for the rest of your session.

If you want to read about a proven edge, that ain't going to happen, not now, not ever, as it simply can not exist relating to betting B or P (excludes the side bets), TT's prove this conclusively.   

I will provide an outline on this public forum, shouldn't be too difficult to fathom the rest.  If a binary sequence has odds of 1/256 of occurring, what are the odds of that 1/256 sequence repeating in single shoe consisting of 70 hands (approx 9 instances of 1/256).  Pretty slim I would hazard a guess, yet have already run into a shoe were this happened 3 times within 70 hands, then you can play 20 shoes and never see a single repeat.

That doesn't tell the whole story.  Only a novice would risk 8 bets in order to win a single bet.   You need to be a bit savvy about it, there is no substitute than actually being the gaming table, experiencing the rough to smoothwall the rest. At the same time you don't want to be sitting at the table against shoes that present no bet opportunities, which my own testing has sometimes shown, or only bet once or twice for an entire shoe.  Yes, I occasionally test to determine worst case scenarios, so that I can anticipate LIARS, while appreciating if I ran it through a set of binary tables, the result would be 'egalite' all things being equal.  Which would be perfect in the real world, because anything that returns a 50% strike rate is ideal for a negative progression, alas it is the LIARS which are  bane of all systems

People need to focus more on controlling LAIRs, if a binary sequence has an mathematical expectation of occurring once per 2048 B/P decisions (once every 29 shoes).   Then what is the expectation of a 1/256 sequence repeating within 70 hands? (please don't go be a novice thinking, oh I'll just bet the opposite, your staking plan won't handle such type pf play). 

Acutely aware cards are just innate pieces plastic, have no memory, if you encounter the shoe from hell (already been there done that), then how many losing bets will such an freak event cost you?  Once you sort that out, then introduce more bet options, so you are not sitting on your hands for most of the game and make sure your staking plan is up to scratch, because mathematically there can never be an edge only expectation.

Quote from: Jimske on April 30, 2018, 02:10:25 PM
Personally, Lugi, I wouldn't bet against the dominant bias in the shoe. If the shoe was not consistent with my placement which means I'd be losing I would back off and try to slowly recoup some losses with conservative betting.  It's not so hard to recoup from small losses. But it's going to require good guessing and proper betting techniques as well as stuff that Lung mentioned.

That wasn't the case, I noticed B PPPP repeat 4 times, so that was already a repeating 20 hand pattern.  Was over taken by a rush of blood, thinking to myself, this can't possibly continue and it did for 5 more hands, meanwhile my bets got bigger, then I lost control as well as my bankroll, that was over a decade ago.

In regards to recouping small losses, I find myself and I guess others become more vulnerable the longer we have been at the tables as our self control is ebbed away.   

I haven't caught up with everything posted in this thread.

Just popped in to say, ASM strategy raised my eyebrows when I read it a few days back.

Few years back, I got hit by single Banker, 4 players, which repeated 5 times, for a perfect 25 hand pattern, because I coldn't beleieve what I was seeing and started betting against it's continuance.

I've seen since a repeating single B, 4 P sequence repeat 4 times.  Also a repeating single Bank, 3 Players is very common, even saw that tonight and many times in the past, ditto Player dominated shoes, were each time the P hits, it just takes off.  Excuse me if I read the OP's first post wrong, I understood it as betting against the P for 2 bets, so felt compelled to respond. 

Just to finish, as my eyes are burning and in need some ZZzz's  It amuses me how so called experienced Baccarat players can scoff and dismiss methods of play that they don't nothing about, giving advice about what works and what won't without being informed, before they offer their solid opinion

I apply statistics and maths, call it 'expectation', that does not preclude anything freaky happening at the tables, which did occur early in 1 shoe, as the casino nearly but not quiet, produce a 256/1 shot twice in 1 bloody shoe consisting of just under 70 hands.    At which stage your MM, patience, discipline & experience should kick in as you become risk adversive.  I treat Baccarat like a series of binary outcomes; 1's and 0's, you can apply maths to binary.    Tonight played approx 15 shoes and lost 1, which I mention above, recouped and made money from the other 14.

I will endevour to catch up with the rest of this thread at a later date when I have more time on my hands.

Quote from: alrelax on April 02, 2018, 12:36:41 PM
You misunderstand what my point was,

And yes i govern my play and replace my bankroll when i win,  i have explained in detail in my blog.

I only up my levels of play when i win.  Othefs do when they lose and chase.

I don't have any reason to build a larger bankroll.

It was a generalise comment, not necessarily aimed at you 

Quote from: alrelax on April 01, 2018, 12:00:19 PM
So many on the internet talk about wins and building larger and larger bank rolls and upping their levels of play,etc.

Think about you wrote,  "upping their levels of play", major failure!!

If you are in the position of building your bankroll, YOU STAY playing AT THE SAME LEVEL.  When you start stepping up your regular chip size, were betting say 9 units at the lower level may be a easy bet to place, betting 9 units at an increased level, changes everything, you might balk, back off, not make the bet, your comfort zone changes totally.   PLUS you are doing exactly what any casino wants you to do, they want you to bet more, making bigger bets, because no matter how lucky you get today or tomorrow, then will have you sooner or later.  Nobodies luck lasts forever, losing clusters can start from the very next hand, then you fall apart along with your game-plan.   

If you're building your bankroll, having more units at your disposal will make you emotionally stronger, increasing your level of play is fraught with unnecessary risk (risking many prior winning session in the one session) and is an emotional game changer.

I reckon it is harder to win after suffering any major loss, basically not only are you are chasing, you are under tremendous pressure to break the current losing streak, it adds to the mental pressure.

What you friend needs to do, is figure out his game plan in advance, MM and bet selection, then set himself a goal target, either a 3rd or 4th of his last loss.  Attempt to recover that slowly,, take a break for a few days, and then attach the loss prior to this.  Easier said than done, but doable with the right frame of mind, adequate BR, MM, mindset and game plan.

If the pressure of prior losses are too great, and he lacks discipline, then he has no chance.