"...I have found taking the uncertainty out of the picture is truly the key. It is not easy by any means, but you have to. Taking the uncertainty out of your consciousness will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you a true advantage to distinguish more between what is actually happening at the moment (the presentments) and all of the other automatic tendencies to interpret and wager upon your experiences, memories and wagering plan(s) attacks..."

I agree with most of your fine post. Some I may differ with a little. I agree limiting the uncertainty is extremely important. Even if we can't eliminate it we can do small things to lessen or lower said uncertainty.

My belief is that we can apply the math of the game(Probability scales) yet stay in tune on "what this specific shoe is producing". Some times the shoe may initially present as skewed but will generally start settling in to the laws of probability expectations(or at least start approaching limits). Though sometimes the race is cut short and the runners run out of distance. So we may not get to see the comeback from the late-charging runners.

By math of the game I mean: We should constantly be thinking and looking for opportunities to apply probability games with the casino where we are the casino. For example, what is the probability of seeing X and Y, and X or Y, prior to seeing Z, ...etc. I find opportunities are easier to see by looking for events where limits are being approached that we know are very rare or seldom reached (in most shoes).

Yes we will see some shoes that defy math theorems and are what I call "weird" shoes. This is where  money management is paramount. That is, we should have a cut off so we only miss a certain number of wagers (mine is typically two or three), and I stop pursuing that event. Yet I never limit the upside when I am in sync with the results(selecting consecutive winners). This is what I perceive keeps me off extended losing streaks on one single event.

"...Taking the uncertainty out of your consciousness will allow a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and allowing you a true advantage..."


Emotional chaos and lack of emotional control is the "achilles' heel" for many players.


Continued Success,

https://readwrite.com/gambling/guide/sports-betting-bankroll-management/

Hopefully the vegas casinos will do a u-turn in the near future. Otherwise the downturn will continue.


https://www.casino.org/news/fee-loathing-the-most-maddening-examples-of-vegas-nickel-diming/

Addendum to TR above.

Note: The following shoe is shown as continuous and not R x C.

BBB P BBB P BBBTB PP B PP B PP BBBBB PP BTBBB P BBBT P BT P BTBBBBTBBBBBB PP BBB

P BBTBB PPPTP B PP B P B P BBB


It was B 49, P 24, T8 at this stage. Banker reached a shoe high of +26. 

This was a favorable opportunity for me (and two others at the table).  A dealer said approximately 180K departed the table with the majority from Banker wins. Because this was a Tiger Baccarat table(I.e., fewer high odds bonus bets offered), bonus bet payouts to players were lower. So majority of 180K was paid out on base bets(mostly  B). I only wagered for P twice in this shoe.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*On this same trip I was at a table and saw approximately $300K depart the table(A pit staff suggested that was the approximate payout from this shoe),  with most from bonus bets:  3-card/ 2-card Blazing7s, B win on 3c7Fortune 7s, a couple 8-6 bonus bet winners...etc.

I hit two F7s with only $20 so very little of this 300K went into my stack. I didn't approach Tmax on any of my  base bets for this shoe.  I only wagered a few times on F7 yet probably more in this shoe than is typical for me. I did not wager any other bonus bets and typically do not wager for F7s.

Majority of the $300K came from the first 3-card Blazing 7 winners with one player wagering Tmax on the bet. I "think" he won around $60K on that one hand with majority from the Blazing7 . He also hit a 2-card blazing7 winner a short time later in the same shoe.  It took a while for the bonus bets payout after the first 3-card Blazing7 winners. Players from out in the casino at slots/other table games came into the Bac pit to see what caused all the celebrations.

I don't recall ever seeing so much money paid out in a single shoe.

Link below.

I remember a few years ago when we first saw 000 roulette. I joked with some roulette folks: "what's next: Quattro roulette". Why stop there lets see if the market will tolerate Cinco-Rouletto.

Im not a veteran on roulette/ seldom play. So maybe Im missing something. Maybe some type of bonus-wager is offered on the latter versions that players can exploit. ?

The following link provided by one of my favorite gaming writers:  John Mehaffey w vegas advantage
 

https://vegasadvantage.com/quadruple-zero-roulette-debuts-on-the-las-vegas-strip/

From AsymBacGuy post #1387

"...By comparing random.org successions with real card distributions happening at your table (same table, same conditions) you'll get a better idea about how real randomness is supposed to act or not.
So when in doubt do not bet anything or bet what's happening whenever b and c situations have surpassed their cutoff values...."


I think this is very important.

Ten-Day Tri-State Bac Run

The recent forum changes look nice/hope all are winning bigly.
I just returned from a multi-state Bac run with a group of nine players (Mostly Bacers with a few tablemates that also play Poker/ Craps line bets.  A couple comrades also play Roulette some. The group played in Wichita, L Vegas, Cripple Creek/Black Hawk Colorado. Three departed Wichita and headed to LV. I will touch on a few highlights/add more later.

*Banker-Run Shoe w multiple B runs incl an 11-B streak. B was +26 at one point.

     This shoe was my best single shoe by far on this trip. I typically put a longer W streak together by setting aside a pressed up wager/reentering in other shoes or session. This was one of the "weird" shoes that I've learned to just go with it. In other words don't overthink it or don't over mathematize it. Sometimes I have to make myself get out of Math Mode and ride the Variance(even if it's a contrarian run that shouldn't happen too often).
I will try to post the PB results from this shoe in the next day or so.

Biggest drawdown for trip prior to recovery: -13.8 Base Units

**Dragon-7 bonus wagers

     I seldom wager for Dragon7(3c7) with 40:1 payout. Occasionally I will add  $600 to my Buy In and wager <=24 tries per shoe. Often maybe only 7-14 tries per shoe. Most days and most shoes zero attempts. I generally start at $25 per attempt and if I lose 43 attempts without a W will raise my next 24 tries to $30 per. If I win within the first 43 tries I will lower to $20 Per,...etc. Im an advocate for not hedging wagers. So often I try to wager a Dragon7 on another players wager when I do not have a base bet(P or B).

     This trip across 10days/ 4-7 shoes per day as some shoes I wagered zero tries and some shoes maybe upward to 24 attempts:

10L then a W at $25, & then reduced to $20. Then 38L and a W @ $20.  Then 5L and another W @20. Then 3L and a W @$20. I did not make any additional attempts. This is by far the most successful string of wins on the 3c7. One of the reasons Im not an advocate for wagering B-3c7 is when Im considering the 3c7 I track several addendum events / I find it cumbersome. It also will sometimes conflict with my Base Bet and my dislike for hedging comes into play.  Just me personally. Based on the above maybe I should rethink my logic, lol


***Friend hit a slot win for ~$13k on a $100 Free Play.

     Several Bac comrades split off from our group after a few days in Wichita and made the trek to Vegas. One hit a $5 Lucky Duck machine for $13.3K net W on an initial $100 Free Play. He always plays Lucky Duck machines with his free play.

****Sports Betting

     I seldom wager Sports Betting (in part because I don't have access to S.B. in my residential state). Most years I will place seven futures bets on NFL teams a couple weeks prior to the seasons' first week. My main approach is to watch the media and especially groups such as ESPN and pay attention to who they are pumping. Then research the opposite and will eliminate potential bets down to a select few. I then run my potential wagers across the thoughts of a couple friends that do SpBetting full time. I then do a line-shopping across  >= six sports books and select the most favorable (I think this last part is very important). Of course, I also must be in a larger market that offers in-person multiple sports books.

During this trip, the majority of my wagers were placed on the US Open. I don't play tennis nor do I watch or study it much(unless considering a bet).
 I started with an initial wager of $300. I mostly took early round favs(thus low payout) on Iga Swiatek and Novak Djokavic. I also took an additional USopen wager on Ms Townsends opponent as I thought she had advanced further than expected for her skill set(+ sports media was hyping her), which is also a trigger for me to look at the other side of the coin flip.
     *My $300 wager plus almost 100% of first several wins were parlayed to $800. Some wins were 100% parlayed. I had only collected $100, 50, and 20 until it hit at $800(1270 payout). I then collected for $800 and wagered the residual $570 on Iga Swiatek in the semis. Anisimova won in a slight upset. My run was over. Net+$970 on a $300 risk. I was satisfied as I will be the first to acknowledge my SB wagering skills are not polished(yet). I looked at the remaining US Open matches but didn't find any value bets. "IF" I had wagered on the mens finally my choice was likely going to be on Jannik Sinner. However, the line never became EV+ in my opinion. I noticed later that Sinner lost to Alcarez.
I welcome thoughts and tips.

NFL Wagers:
     I wagered seven futures bets on the NFL. Most were on Conference or Division champion.  One Prop wager I like is NYG(105) to win >5.5 games this season.


Thanks for reading.

More later,

Hi Bally6354. A very excellent thread.

I like your data recording format. IMO it is crucial for us to record the results in a clear manner. One needs to  quickly discern what is happening at a glance.

re: 2iar(in-a-rows). I've always viewed them as "terrific twos". In part, because they are a pattern we can quickly see. Plus as AsymBacGuy has written, they can often be the slightly-longer identifiable pattern vs other commonly identified patterns.

A secondary benefit of the terrific-twos patterns: They are a trigger for another bet placement that often presents shortly after the 2iars end(Though somewhat dependent on how far into the shoe and the patterns that have shown prior to the 2x2s). In other words as we see a lengthy 2x2 pattern present one should ask: What might happen next. I like to get into anticipatory mode as I await.


Thx for taking the time for a well thought out thread. Good comments everyone.


Continued Success To All,

???Machine Shuffled, Pre-Shuffled, or Hand-Shuffled Shoes??? Which do you prefer and why?

Link below from reddit has several interesting opinions/comments.

https://www.reddit.com/r/baccarat/comments/1dk27k7/psa_warning_machine_shuffled_shoes/


Continued Success,

Thanks Asym

I'll present some ideas about the importance of getting more convergent parameters than we can to orient our betting (or no betting) decision.

I look forward to the next post.

Good list. I concur with most.

1). Wagering against others that are winning with a verbal (at least loud enough to hear it) "He/They can't keep winning".

     I see this occasionally but typically the player doesn't say anything. They just wager quietly. It doesn't bother me personally if others choose to go against my selection. "If" I absolutely "Must" wager against the majority on a long streak(Because my logic suggests it's a very high EV+ placement), then I will. One of the reasons I'm hesitant to do so is that I also consider: "Well, since the majority have a different opinion" maybe they are seeing something different that I have not considered. This is when it is good to know the others at the table and simply ask them what /why they are making that selection,..etc.

 "IF" I still feel a need to go with my selection and at a MIDI table I will motion for dealer to turn the cards,..etc. Obviously, I don't celebrate if I win. I probably win about 50% of these situations.


2). "Excuse me, how is this game played".

     Just last week I sat down at a table (with my pre-made Bac Notebook/ tri-color ink pen), and recorded a few items prior to placing three bets(winning 3) across about 20 dealt hands. So I guess the player next to me assumed I was organized, older than him et al, and so must be experienced/more knowledgeable,..etc. Of course I could have just as quickly lost 3 bets in a row.

He asks me "what are you looking for"?
I state a couple things I had noted/ to be polite I then ask him what he likes to note. His response: "I don't know I just started studying the game yesterday." He later indicated a starting buy in of 1015 was now only $45 remaining (at a $50 min table).


6). Those people arguing with dealer or pit personnel about drawing 3rd cards.  Happens frequently with 2 card values of 4s and 5s for both sides or when banker has 3 and players 3rd card was 8, etc.  (Of course they are wrong and totally oblivious of the rules)


I see that occasionally. Often when B has a 2-card five total/ players don't understand the rules when P has drawn a third card (4-7).  Most seem to be aware of the 38special but a few object/try to start something.

    *Somewhat related:
 I recently placed a wager ($1440) on B and the dealer signaled for a Tie. A player on the other end ( had just busted a couple hands prior), and I guess decided to relax a couple mins before departing. He then signaled to the dealer they needed to draw a 3rd card. The dealer did and I lost. The player was correct as the dealer indeed should have drawn. The player received a "WTH" look from most of the others at the table although my wager was the only one affected. He appeared to feel horrible immediately afterward and said "Im sorry don't know what I was thinking". He immediately apologized again as he departed the pit.  I wasn't angry, though a little annoyed (as I correctly lost the wager). I felt for him. I played with him two days later/he was still apologizing. I assured him no big deal as I should have lost anyway,...etc. He seemed like a great guy and just wasn't paying attention/ stated what he was thinking before realizing the impact.,..etc.


4). Players convincing each other B/P because of some elaborate or complicated pattern they invented, etc.

     One can hear all kinds of "crackpot" ideas while at the Bacs table.



Continued Success To All,

The list below was updated 8/2/25. It appears that folks age 50+ can receive a few extra bonus offers.

Continued Success,


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/shop/players-club-bonus-points/

Does any one subscribe to this coupon book? It seems like for $50 a year(I "think" that's the price) it would pay for itself within one trip to Vegas. Im not advocating for or against the site: Las Vegas Advisor. Any thoughts ? Any experience with this? 
Thx in advance for sharing your opinion.

https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/member-rewards-list/

Great win/congrats to this guy.
That is why I think one should go to the casino /play Bac every day. One may be walking around lucky all day and never know it.





Continued Success,

I saw this recent headline and had to just shake my head in wonderment.


https://www.casino.org/news/paris-las-vegas-guest-outraged-over-50-charge-for-using-outlet/



Continued Success,