Good topic.
"...Second. You have to decide and be very comfortable with what your bank roll will be, as well as what each session's buy-in risk capital will be...."
In my opinion its critical for each player to design their own system by "fitting" it to their advantage % "greater than H.E." , then fit that to betsize-to-buyin-to-bankroll. Then fit that to ones own MMM.
"...Third. You must understand as well as be somewhat comfortable with unavoidable drawdowns. Drawdown of the players buy-in will happen the majority of the times...."
The dreaded "drawdown" is what causes many to go on tilt. You can see it in the players eyes and can sense they are starting to "chase". Its certainly not enjoyable as I drawdown in many sessions prior to getting the W. We should just accept it as part of the game(same as when we get an "uptick" first).
"...Ref Martingale betting. It is ultimately unsustainable and carries the highest risk of significant losses.
Ref Flat betting. It is a very risky and slow way to make anything higher than a few units. .."
I see the majority of players doing more Negpro vs Flat or Pospro.
I like to remind myself that we will get the same number of wins IAR(in-a-row) regardless of what we call our wager. Meaning, the event one is wagering on does not know if we just increased or decreased from the previous wager size/ does not know if we just won or lost,...etc.
*My advocacy for a pospro is because one can win by A)guessing more correct, and B)guessing fewer correct but putting together 2-4 wins IAR.
I track many things at the table and one is my hit rate. Most shoes I probably average 8--16 wagers per shoe. Nearly every shoe ends up within 2-3 W/L. For example W8 L6, W6 L8, W9 L8,..etc. Occasionally I may have W10 L5k, which would be a very good hit rate for me. Usually due to getting an uptick just prior to coloring up or ending that session(Meaning I won 4-5 IAR at the end so instead of being at W5 L5, I finished the shoe at say W10 L5.
*I had a session last week across four+ shoes and approx six hours where I had an approx 38% hit rate(rough session from the word go). I was never ahead until the end. I finally put together several wins IAR and finished +4 or so units. I was saved by the pospro. My hit rate was dismal and would have busted a Negpro of any kind and a Flat approach wouldn't have busted. However, it may have taken several shoes or days to climb back to even.
"...Say I bought it in for $2,400. I wager a $100 base unit with a plan to positive parlay wins three times. 1-2-4, $100 wins 3 times, will net me $700. Naturally it will take some kind of drawdown to get there most of the time. But not all and maybe I could do it a few consecutive times in a row. ..."
Very doable. The great part of such a wagering regime is that you may do it(hit your thrice parlay Coup) on the first (or early) attempts. Then you now have 24 +7 attempts(31).
*Every time one hits a coup I would use that as a trigger to apply ones MMM for any +gains >2400 initial buyin. It doesn't matter if your only ahead $150 or 550 or whatever. Then reset and keep playing with the initial 2400 buyin risk. If one draws down first (prior to a win) I wouldn't reduce base unit from $100 down to say $80 as a way of extending the buyin( I see this from many players).
Good thread alrelax
More later,kfb
"...Second. You have to decide and be very comfortable with what your bank roll will be, as well as what each session's buy-in risk capital will be...."
In my opinion its critical for each player to design their own system by "fitting" it to their advantage % "greater than H.E." , then fit that to betsize-to-buyin-to-bankroll. Then fit that to ones own MMM.
"...Third. You must understand as well as be somewhat comfortable with unavoidable drawdowns. Drawdown of the players buy-in will happen the majority of the times...."
The dreaded "drawdown" is what causes many to go on tilt. You can see it in the players eyes and can sense they are starting to "chase". Its certainly not enjoyable as I drawdown in many sessions prior to getting the W. We should just accept it as part of the game(same as when we get an "uptick" first).
"...Ref Martingale betting. It is ultimately unsustainable and carries the highest risk of significant losses.
Ref Flat betting. It is a very risky and slow way to make anything higher than a few units. .."
I see the majority of players doing more Negpro vs Flat or Pospro.
I like to remind myself that we will get the same number of wins IAR(in-a-row) regardless of what we call our wager. Meaning, the event one is wagering on does not know if we just increased or decreased from the previous wager size/ does not know if we just won or lost,...etc.
*My advocacy for a pospro is because one can win by A)guessing more correct, and B)guessing fewer correct but putting together 2-4 wins IAR.
I track many things at the table and one is my hit rate. Most shoes I probably average 8--16 wagers per shoe. Nearly every shoe ends up within 2-3 W/L. For example W8 L6, W6 L8, W9 L8,..etc. Occasionally I may have W10 L5k, which would be a very good hit rate for me. Usually due to getting an uptick just prior to coloring up or ending that session(Meaning I won 4-5 IAR at the end so instead of being at W5 L5, I finished the shoe at say W10 L5.
*I had a session last week across four+ shoes and approx six hours where I had an approx 38% hit rate(rough session from the word go). I was never ahead until the end. I finally put together several wins IAR and finished +4 or so units. I was saved by the pospro. My hit rate was dismal and would have busted a Negpro of any kind and a Flat approach wouldn't have busted. However, it may have taken several shoes or days to climb back to even.
"...Say I bought it in for $2,400. I wager a $100 base unit with a plan to positive parlay wins three times. 1-2-4, $100 wins 3 times, will net me $700. Naturally it will take some kind of drawdown to get there most of the time. But not all and maybe I could do it a few consecutive times in a row. ..."
Very doable. The great part of such a wagering regime is that you may do it(hit your thrice parlay Coup) on the first (or early) attempts. Then you now have 24 +7 attempts(31).
*Every time one hits a coup I would use that as a trigger to apply ones MMM for any +gains >2400 initial buyin. It doesn't matter if your only ahead $150 or 550 or whatever. Then reset and keep playing with the initial 2400 buyin risk. If one draws down first (prior to a win) I wouldn't reduce base unit from $100 down to say $80 as a way of extending the buyin( I see this from many players).
Good thread alrelax
More later,kfb
