Good post.

"...Triggers are good, don't get me wrong.  However, triggers do run exclusive and sporadic without definitive application.  If there was definitive application for triggers, then the game of Baccarat would not exist or it would be pulled real quick...."[/color

Triggers are important. The key IMO is A) they are verified based on the Laws of Probability and or other verification, and B) The player recognizes that most triggers will not hold true for any single event for the entire shoe. Due in part to the limiting nature of a shoe(i.e., Dealt cards are not replaced), and the constant shifting of the (4,5, or 6 cards) per hand.
This almost assures us that any one single event(or side:P or B) will not get the best of it for the full shoe.



Continued Success,

Excellent thread.

AsymBacGuy above in post#1361.

"...If you'd run infinite times such 4-hands scenarios, you'll see that 1 and 1a patterns will overwhelm the remaining possible situations with an important caveat that not only all 0.75 probability events will get the same distribution as some random walks will make more probable to encounter "unexpected" L back to back events after an unexpected L streak (equal or greater than 2) came out previously..."

I concur 100%.



Continued Success,

Re: Taxis on gambling winnings. Link below.
The following article is dated 8/1. I encourage all to contact their state and  Senators/Congress person. I leave messages and emails quite often on important issues. They really do pay attention to their constituents. Especially if they are up for reelection in the near future.

From the link:

"... The provision has dominated gambling media, and has since triggered promises to undo the controversial change.

One such promise came directly from House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, a Republican from Missouri. Smith and several other committee members went to Las Vegas late last week to hold a "field hearing" about the bill and discuss its pros and cons. ..."

https://ggbnews.com/article/u-s-in-focus-38/

I agree. Vegas did this to themselves over many years with multiple mistakes. Coupled with increased competition from Indian casinos(as well as sports betting/online gambling sites).

Link below. Key phrase in the link:

"... There are two differences between these properties and their Strip peers: 1) They are riding the wave of population growth as the Las Vegas Valley adds 50,000 residents a year, and 2) They cater to locals who know a good deal and expect to be treated well. No $26 water, no parking fees, no 6-5 blackjack and single-zero roulette.  ..."

https://ggbnews.com/article/fantinis-finance-overpriced-glass-half-empty/

Hi Asym
re: Your thoughts above in post #1352

"...

I've recently witnessed three consecutive ties in a row getting a 0 point (6-5-9, J-2-8; six zero value cards, K-3-7 10-6-4) a kind of super unlikely event.
I know that somewhere there's the option to bet a 0 tie...just wondering how much money could be won here.

I agree about the importance of events "clumping", honestly I still don't see reasons to bet ties no matter how card ranks are diluted or concentrated in the playable deck but maybe I'm wrong..."

re: The Tie Bettor I mentioned above.
    I agree with you/ though he seems to wager for Ties with success. My thinking is the same efforts would produce a greater Net return if one would focus the same energy on lower H.E. bets.

He does a slow series of wagers following a slight Neg Progression, He said what happens is that often at the higher tier levels he will hit several winners within a short gap distance between (cluster). He then drops the tier level (even if he is not Net +) at that stage,...etc until in positive territory.
He utilizes a very large bank roll to wager ratio/ doesn't mind using it. He stated once that Tier 13 was the most extreme level reached before + again. I do not know the number of wagers in each tier and what the % is between tiers.



Continued Success,

Link at the bottom.

Hi albilaha--I recall when u originally posted the above. I researched it briefly back then and have two acquaintances that are active with Pi network. Both received their initial degrees in Mathematics so (like me) thought the name was clever. They were the type in college to wear T-shirts with Pi and take March 14 (3/14) off from classes to celebrate at the local pub.
I do not have any experience with the Pi Network. I perceive it is likely as good or better than most of its competitors.


The following link offers a review of "Pi" for anyone wanting to read a quick basic review/brief about the Pi network.

https://99bitcoins.com/cryptocurrency/pi-network-review/



Continued Success,

A very successful group of gamblers It would be interesting to know the NET +-  from gambling at the end of their careers. Its all about Net retention.

https://www.casino.org/blog/top-10-richest-gamblers/

re: Tax changes for gambling.

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=6757&d=1751418026

Post #1351 above. Great B run(s).

Good W for you. Was that a recent win at your local casino??




Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy

Asym above in post #1344 in response to my post.

"...I like the term "Event gaps' contraction and expansion"

It could be someway intended as the Alrelax "sections" or my "ranges".
..."

He (The Tie Bettor) uses a scaled-score tracking method for assessing the current Face Card Vs Cards remaining ratio(Basically card removal affect on current potential for a T). As well as a couple other ratios related to Ties(We both perceive that 7s and cards that can form 7s are beneficial to understand), as well as the gaps(distance between said events).  Distance between meaning hands between certain events(This what I meant about contraction /expansion). Like most any event at Bac we will see its (SD) reach an apex and then back again. Similar to the ebb and flow of the tides,..etc.

He (like me) perceives that Events want to occur in clumps. I seldom wager for Ties(unless sitting with him) and he nudges me. Then I would be likely to wager it for several times in a row and then stop( Win or Lose).

Although, I do track what all-things-sevens are doing. I seldom wager "for" a Fortune7(3c7 B win), however, I do like to side step a 3c7 B win  if I think a wager on B is favorable at that particular moment.

Continued Success,

Hi All,
Good thread that all gamblers need to monitor. Often, small changes lead to larger changes(against the player), at later dates. In other words if politicians are allowed to take and inch they will return to take a foot,..etc.
 A Bac comrade had sent a link to that the following day after it came out.

The following link at bottom addresses the same issue/ "I think" is an update to what  your article addresses:
'One Big Beautiful Bill' Has Silver Lining for Gamblers as Certain Tax Reporting Thresholds Increase

https://www.casino.org/news/one-big-beautiful-bill-has-silver-lining-for-gamblers/


Have a good week,

I know we have discussed this topic in the past. A couple good thoughts in the link below.


https://www.casino.org/blog/winning-streaks-in-poker/

10-Day 10- Casino Four-State Casino Cash Extraction

     I hope everyone has been winning bigley. Its good to see the forum is back online. A table mate told me during the trip that the forum had dissolved.  I'm not sure where he heard this obvious nonsense. He(Mostly plays in Wichita, Ks I think) , and had mentioned that he followed posters Gr8 and Asymbacguy. I asked him if it was a forum called betselection. He responded: Yes, but that forum was shutdown/no longer exists.  I had not logged on in 10-15 days due to long hours at the tables and travel. When I returned from my trip, I was unable to log on for some reason.  I'm guessing just general maintenance by Vic. Anyway, it was good to learn from a forum member a few days ago the forum had been reactivated. I think most will agree there is a couple of decades of great content on this forum. Many experienced players who have left the tables, perhaps permanently, spent years sharing valuable Baccarat content.  Many long-term early posters such as Asym are still contributing Bac wisdom as well.

Four-State Bac Trek:

I like playing in states like Kansas and Colorado as many casinos and most offer higher limits (5k and 10k). Most of my casinos in Midwest have Tmax of 2k (which means approx. 3900 is max one could wager). If one is allowed to cap another player's wager. Plus, many casinos in the Midwest require a wager (No Free Hands), or maybe only three FH per shoe, ...etc. Plus, I thoroughly like the option for monitoring several shoes at once/selecting the one I perceive is optimal. Though I'm fortunate to live in a casino market with a hundred casinos within 3 hours of driving. I would like to see more Stadium multiple-shoe (Live Dealer) setups within driving distance.

Six other Bac players caravanned with us/ made this trek playing in several states as we navigated toward the Rocky Mountains. We met four others (two dealers and two of my relatives), at our destination in the Colorado casinos (We spent seven days here). All of us play mostly Bac with a few also playing Roulette, Poker, and Craps line bets. All of us are experienced and serious gamers. I primarily play Bac, but I sometimes participate in ETG games such as roulette when they are available. etc.).

Some Personal Highlights of the Trek.

     +67.5 Units (Base units) for the trip. I have been on a seven-week winning streak without busting my buy in(I've lost some shoes but able to recoup and get a win in the session. Sometimes it took 2-3 shoes to grab the W). The winning streak persisted during the trek.  However, I returned home, took a day off from the tables and four days later did finally bust a buy in.


     +23.4 Units(Max win in any one session). A session was sometimes >=1 shoe.
-13.6 units (maximum drawdown recorded during a single session).  Approx 2.5 shoe session. I finally pulled ahead about 4 units/it was almost midnight. So decided to call it  a night.  I had mostly been (-) for the whole duration of the session.

     *I saw a player hit two out of three consecutive wagers on the Dragon7(3c7 B win). He jogged toward the cashier's cage a couple of hands later.

     *I played with a young lady (approx. 25—30yo) mostly wagering for Panda and or Dragon take an approx. $1500 buy in to approx. 3500—4000. She seemed to mostly win from a clumping of Bonus-Wager hits. She told a relative, possibly her father or uncle, that she was leaving to go to the bank and pay off her $2,200 car loan.  I wanted to high-five her but just told her "Smart move." . She had won several Base Bets in a row as well as a couple bonus bets in close proximity (It seems like it was the Panda8, 8-6, or 9-7 two card bet win).

    * I was playing next to a lady that seemed to mostly wager bonus bets and had been wagering for the Panda8 (I believe), nearly every hand then "erroneously" placed her wager on the 8-6 Bonus and hit it (She had almost busted), and this produced something like a +2K in front of her. She thought she had lost, and it wasn't until the dealer started paying her bet that she realized it was a big W.  She parsed out 200/ locked up the remainder. She departed about 15mins later with most of her winnings it seemed.

     *I wagered two sports bets (Wimbledon) and went 0-2 on this trip. I seldom wager sports bets unless I get a tip from comrades that have more expertise. Both tennis bets were my picks.


Most interesting/entertaining extended session (2.5--3 shoes/approx. 4-5hours).

     I saw a narcissistic player increase what appeared to be a $15k-17k buy in to just over 40k(twice). Then, departing the table with only 3k—4k. He incessantly claimed expertise in numerous subjects and frequently placed wagers, often verbally stating the outcome of the next hand to those at the table(He was equally right and wrong). 

He was another one of those "been-there-done-that" kind of guys that shared his expertise nonstop. My group are veteran serious players that are all about making money. Though friendly and more than happy to celebrate with table mates we generally don't offer advice unless solicited(& then only in brief).
His expertise spanned stock markets, luxury cars, gold investing, real estate, cyber security, computers, relationships, and being the world's greatest Bac player.  A friend who traveled with us, and owns a cyber security company, would frequently nudge me whenever this "expert" shared views on cyber security or government surveillance,..etc.. We had some laughs later on.

 One lady mentioned to a lady next to her (and Opp end of table from the "expert"), they had sold their home and looking to relocate locally. He proceeded to tell her how the real estate companies "get Cha", and one should do like him and just sell /buy your home (Without a RE agent), like he does, and on and on.
 I'm not sure I have ever met a more arrogant/narcissistic player or any person (At least not anyone over 15—25yo or so). He was in his approx. 40s. Most of us would have probably ignored his behavior if he was in his 20s and we probably would have concluded his euphoria/narcissism was due to getting an atypical big win or maybe on drugs...etc. or simply being young /naive. He didn't seem to be on stimulants nor inebriated (though drinking a few beers).  Sadly, it seemed to simply be a chronic personality trait.  At least with drug-induced Euphoria or narcissism it generally dissipates.

OMG, this guy would not stop talking about his Bac prowess et al expertise. He had all kinds of crackpot theories on Bac. He once told us the casino arranges the cards to beat players that wager only Bank (& why he NEVER wagers B). Then, a couple hands later he was wagering on Bank.

He frequently wagered a large bet on (B or P), coupled with a 2-3 bonus bets, all at the same time. He seemed to do a negpro when losing and a pos pro with similar aggressiveness when winning. He wagered very erratically and seemingly didn't care about following a smooth curve with his progressions. HTwice he had to wager a (make or break) wager that if lost he would have a remainder of approx. 2k--5k. He survived both but kept pushing his luck.

He wagered significantly more than others at our table (often 1k—5k per hand. A typical base unit for most of us was a starting wager at $100–300. etc. and followed a reasonable progression. So, he frequently touted his wins and demanded to "hold the floor" on any topic mentioned at the table. Once he won a large bet (and most others lost), he proceeded to stand up and give the touchdown "arms up" gesture all the while looking at nearby tables to see if others may have seen his big W. Because he undoubtedly had the highest IQ in the room, lol.

A few times I considered asking him to just shut up for about 3 minutes and let my brain rest a little. We constantly scanned the tote boards at four adjacent tables for a possible departure. I saw a potentially good shoe profile nearby, but it was too crowded with zero chairs available, and the event was nearing the end.  However, they were all mostly similar to ours and mostly in line with expectation. So our option was to endure this table (& expert) or go to a different casino.

Though, we should never wish bad or bad results at the table upon anyone. Several players appeared thankful when he slinked off after losing his wins back to the casino. His wife was almost in tears at one of the two brief moments he had over $40K in front of him. She whispered to him "let's go now", and he scolded her that he wanted to push his totals to $50K. She responded, "We would still be down from the last two days". Two of the ladies were still laughing about him an hour later in the next shoe (as well as next day). They seemed to resent how disrespectful he was to his wife (often scolded her/ also flirting with other females). After losing almost all (approx. $3k remaining) he slipped off at a chip refill/ tried to act like he was going to another table. He stated he had won "over a 100K" just a week earlier,.etc../ the casino was watching him, and trying to get their money back, etc. You know, because according to him he was such a big winner,lol.
They headed to the cashier's cage/exited the casino.

A classic on what "NOT" to do at a bac table. In other words, never become too haughty /narcissistic and perceive one has nothing else to learn at the bac tables. Same as in life. Most everybody can do at least one thing better than us.


Biggest Single Bet/Session Win from a Tablemate.

     The cyber security friend I mentioned above mostly plays Bac and Craps line bets. He once was a very skilled BJ player for a couple decades but after the payout changed from 3:2 he stopped playing. He has mostly played Bac Base Bets/Craps Line wagers in the past decade.
 
     He took a $275 craps line bet: 275,550, 1000,1825, 3650. I didn't play with him at this Craps session, but he indicated a mix of P and Dp produced the W streak. Then he brought it to the Bac table the next day and wager $5k after seeing one of his favorite triggers (Won it on a 1-0 outcome). He brought it all down and locked it up. He is typically a very stoic/serious person and seldom talks or shows any excitement. He yelled out "YES", as he told me later, he had initially thought the hand had lost (or tied). That was a large win for him as he most commonly wagers between $250--toward $1K if he wins several times in a row.

My largest wager(s) outcomes.
     As some of you know that have played with me.  I mostly play in the Midwest with lower table max vs larger markets such as CO, MS, NV. Most of my casinos are less than or equal to 3900, which is the maximum on $2k tables, while the range is approximately 5800–5900 on a $3k table. 
Whenever I have at least three wagers at a Tmax of about 3800–3900, I reserve one for a future trip to a casino with a larger Tmax. For example, if I get five wins at Tmax, I set aside two; if at least seven wins at Tmax, I set aside three, and so on.  It doesn't happen very often and sometimes takes weeks or months to accumulate at least three of these larger wagers(to warrant a trip). So, this trip I had three "set aside" wagers that would be $5K on their next placement. On this trip, the three wagers finished: 1-1, 0-1, and 0-1.  So, I was a little disappointed as I was optimistic, I could go at least >= 1-1 performance on at least one of them. I'm always optimistic that I can get at least one to slip through the cracks and continue onward/upward. It was not to be.
     Besides the above carried-over wagers my highest in-session wager was $1480.It won.

I saw an old bac comrade at the CO tables.

     I use to frequently play with an elder Vietnamese guy in the Midwest and he frequently plays in Wichita area. It seems every time I play in either of the Colorado cas markets I run into him. He speaks English just slightly better than I speak Vietnamese (approaches zero). So, Bac is our primary shared language.  He seems like a veteran player and wins more than he loses by far. He is very patient and generally will only wager B or P. Maybe only 5-10 wagers in most shoes it seems. It was great to see him/ I enjoyed sharing the tables with him several times on this trip.

     *Awhile back I arrived at a casino in Colorado and approached the Bac pit  on my first day. Upon entering the table pit and baccarat section, I observed an individual standing and signaling for my attention, motioning me over, and indicating that he was experiencing a winning streak.  P had won 11iar(in-a-row) , and it appeared that he caught most of them. He had approx. 8K in front of him. I believe he typically buys in with $2k or so. He indicated he caught most of them and pointed his wins out on the tote board.  After, the 11th P he then switches to B (and wins), then immediately colored up. As we walked to the cashier's cage and then to a different table I asked him why he switched to B after the run reached the  11th P. The response in his best English: "It was done, over."  LOL. I was expecting him to give some logic or explanation of how he interpretated that turn (and end of the P streak).


Thx for reading/ have a good week.

AsymBacGuy in Post #1330 above in response to my post:

"..For some reasons I'm pretty certain that he plays only at RNG shoes (new generation of shuffle machines), am I right?.."

Hi Asym /hope you are taming the tables.

He does indeed play mostly at RNG shoes though not "only" RNG shoes due to his location. He lives in Kansas and in past played alot in Oklahoma Indian casinos. However, he did not like being required to place a Side Bet( B or P) to place any of the bonus wagers such as (T). He also did not like (No Free Hands). So in the past couple years I think he mostly plays in Wichita,Ks,  Kansas City, as well as Tunica.

*I will elaborate more later on some of his triggers. He tracked several triggers/ like me felt "gaps between" events are important to track(e.g. The event gaps' contraction and expansion.)


More later,

"The less you bet, the more you lose when you win." – Bob Nastanovich