Hi Asym. How are the tables treating you.

Above u say: "...  longer streaks (say 5-5+) tend to dispose themselves by three different shapes:

a) Singularly interspersed between lower degree patterns (singles/doubles/triples and 4s)

b) Diluted or not showing up at all

c) Clustered (back to back) at various levels of consecutiveness and density.

Each shape of presentation has its merits with important practical reflexes.

Shape a) is the more likely course of presentation and could be applied at lower streak levels (4s or 3s).
Actually a (risky and unnecessary) multilayered progressive plan adopted to get 5s, 4s or 3s showing up as 'isolated' cannot be wrong for long as the isolated/clustered streak ratio tends to produce low sd values...."

Q1 In the BOLD you are saying the optimum method to catch a >=5IAR streak(e.g., ppppp or bbbbb) is to watch for them to be positioned in a cluster of 3iar/4iar streaks(e.g. ppp bbbb ppppp)
Yes No ??

Q2 If you were assigned the task to win 5 bets in a row would it not be easier to try and catch say two wins from a 3iar streak and maybe three more wins from a 4iar streak(Since 3iar and 4iar are indeed in most shoes)

Yes no other??


Thx in advance,

AsymBacGuy at the bottom of post #963: "...Now you might wonder why some "uninterested" players will patiently wait then betting 10k-20k after a couple of consecutive 1s came out in order to get any number different than 1..
.."


Like

alrelax:"...KFB,  That cash extraction was NOT from that shoe with the 6 F7s.  It was from 2 other shoes in one session...."

Ok thx/a big congrats on the massive cash extraction. Im confident, since you already converted the chips to cash, that you made it home with most of W $.

I have a good friend that recently won just over $20K mostly on one single run in a shoe(A big win for him is typically1k--3k on a 2k--3K BI). He actually colored up, booked an early flight home, and "got the heck outa dodge" as they say in the USA.
(An old western movie series: Gunsmoke, was based on 1860s frontier life in Dodge City,Kansas,USA). Dodge City was a rough, cattle driving destination, gun slinging, gambling town.
Thus the old phrase: Get the heck out of town, and FAST. I often play very near this town in Wichita, KS.



Continued Success,

I agree 8OR9. Today 1/15/24 Bitcoin is down to 42,600 from a few days ago at 46,900. However, it could just as easily be at 35k or 48k by the time you read this. IMO much of recent runup was due to likelihood for all the ETFs being approved. I think it was already baked into the price, thus, this mild drawback was somewhat expected. Its my opinion if one understands the volatility in Bitcoin(much like day trading and gambling), then one can still make money.

Its my belief that gambling in low SD games such as Bac, Pai Gow, Sic Bo,...etc is actually better. Due mainly that HE is easily known, small variance, and can't be changed nor can the dealer charge us more to place our bet(like our broker or broker co). Plus some of our bets(investments) will put the HE in our favor.

If I go to my broker and say I want to invest 100K. The broker immediately takes a fee of 2.75%(Great I now only have 97,250 invested. THEN, if the stock investment does well they will extract an additional >=3-7.5%. Plus any new investment contributed will also get charged this initial 2.75% fee.

This is why it is so important that we not play at casinos that charge an Ante "up front" win or lose. Casinos in Missouri actually charge a vig up front(W or L) on some games that can increase HE from ~~3% to almost 6%. don't Do That.



Bitcoin is so volatile and hard to value that it's closer to a lottery ticket than an investment, top economist David Rosenberg says

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-btc-crypto-sec-etf-david-rosenberg-gambling-investing-portfolio-2024-1


Continued Success,

Hi alrelax
Is that cash extraction from the recent tote board post: 6 Fortune 7s and 39 B-30 P??

"...FINAL THOUGHTS:  1) To myself, success is being able to win greater amounts monthly than I lose.  2) Being able to maintain my true passion and purpose when I play. 3) Maintaining my bankroll with occasional increases from wins.  4) Using my win money (cashed out win) for other things than gambling.  5) And most importantly, accepting both mistakes and losses with a Baccarat Masters frame-of-mind and attempt to learn from those...."

    Like many things in life one can only learn by doing. We can run sims, watch youtube videos, read books, read on forum, ...etc and that indeed is likely to help. However, the "tricks-to-the-trade" will only be discovered by doing(losing and winning). Most all "tricks-to-the-trade" will boil down to money management of wins, self control, and managing our emotions.

In my opinion most males shouldn't be allowed to gamble until they are >=30--35. 
Though I do frequently share a bac table with a professional poker player that is about 28. He has a master's in accounting /is very mature. Plus both his father / grandfather made their living for decades from the poker room.



Continued Success, 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Approved by SEC, Cleared To Start Trading Thursday1/11/24


I agree Albalaha. Bitcoin will continue with its volatility (Though intrinsic value won't necessarily change in either direction). However, one can still make alot of money investing in bitcoin et al cryptos.
I purchased a very small stake in the Short Bitcoin (BITI) awhile back. I may try to purchase some of Blackrocks' Bitcoin ETF immediately after it opens just to be able to play it both ways(at least once or in the short term). This ETF market will be like the crack cocaine of investing.

IMO it will allow the very early and the very large Bitcoin owners to leverage the market at a fraction of the cost. Huge swings in the years ahead/ they will scalp the small investor.

*A really good read is the book : The Big Short by M. Lewis. This book depicts what happened in the 2008 market collapse in the USA. It sheds light on what the financial markets, hedge fund mgrs, banks, brokers,...etc can  "legally" do and get away with it.

IMO this Bitcoin market will unravel in a similar fashion down the road. Be prepared my friends and wishing you all the best of luck.



The SEC has approved 11 bitcoin type ETFs today and will start trading tomorrow.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/spot-bitcoin-etfs-are-approved-by-sec-cleared-to-start-trading-thursday/ar-AA1mLSGT

Thx Asym for post #956 above. Alot of good intel/appreciate u taking the time to share.




Continued Success,

How Many Cryptocurrencies Are There?

Key passages from the following link at the very bottom:


*There are more than 23,000 cryptocurrencies, according to CoinMarketCap. That's a far cry from a decade ago, when there were just seven.

However, that astonishing growth rate isn't entirely good news. Many new cryptocurrencies have little purpose other than making money for their developers.


**Why are there so many different cryptocurrencies?
The biggest reason there are so many different cryptocurrencies is that there's practically no barrier to entry. Anyone who wants to create a cryptocurrency can do it. Even if you have zero technical know-how, you could hire someone on Fiverr (FVRR 1.36%), say, to make a cryptocurrency for less than $20.


    I actually had a passing thought about creating my own crypto: BacBit. 
A group of professional bac players could all pool verifiable/liquidable assets of say 100K each (Gold bars, cash, land, stock shares,real estate,...etc). BacBit would be formed with verifiable assets(Great sales pitch).
They (Bacbit owners) could draw on it for front money at a casino and every profitable session or day they would contribute 2.5% of wins back to BacBit(Net proceeds paid out once a year back to BacBit owners). Of course the first goal after each winning session would be to buy our own shares back so our share price would constantly be on the rise.

Of course our real profits would be from getting other (outsiders) to buy our stock (because it had increasingly increased since inception). We would then offer small rewards(small % of another BacBit coin) for the early investors to then recruit other "new" investors. Therefore, we would need to hire a PR firm to constantly talk about how successful the  bac players at BacBit were because we never lost,...etc. We would be fine as long as "ALL" investors never wanted to redeem their stocks at once.

This is how I perceive many of the earlier cryptos were formed---just a group of friends setting around kicking ideas around. It is almost comical when I read how many of the meme/altcoins were formed and how they immediately had millions of dollars being invested in a Non verifiable Ponzi-like crypto coin.





https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/financials/cryptocurrency-stocks/how-many-cryptocurrencies-are-there/

5 Myths about crypto

AsymBacGuy reply to my post above:

"...KFB wrote:

I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card).

I find particularly interesting this passage, can you elaborate a bit?
  ..."

I was just making a general comment on how the casino benefits from offering more /more bonus bets as these hedges weaken our placement of an EV+ wager. Especially when we can't win all bets on a single outcome but the casino can. I commonly see players wager all of three or four bonus bets along with a Tie, and then at the last second toss out a wager on a Side bet(P or B). IMO there are more optimum methods to win consistently(& most certainly wagers with a lower SD).

Re: Ties--I see a lot of players constantly wager a side wager(P or B) along with the Tie(which pays 8:1 in my casino markets). So a Tie bettor is not only wagering on a lesser quality bet but also hedging the side bet(We can't win both).

Re:Tie bet--Its certainly countable, however, at an 8:1 payout my opinion is that one would find more value counting another bonus wager such as Panda8 or Dragon7,...etc. If you are fortunate enough to play in a market that offers 9:1 on Tie bet then I would be a little more interested in Tie wagers.

"IF" I was going to put forth alot of effort counting Ties(@ 9:1) I would just make that my main wager(only wager if possible). Yet again the casinos(most) require one to also place a side wager(P or B) for the opportunity to wager a T, or any bonus wager. Most cas don't allow capping your neighbor's wager (At least in my market the capping is not allowed).


My earlier thought in above post: "I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card). ..."

None of my casinos offer such a wager/ I haven't seen anywhere in USA. Possibly offered in other countries or @ online casinos. However, if they did offer such a layout it would be very countable(& potentially lucrative) wager. Depending on the payout I would likely focus on the Low Tie.

Re: Tie Bettors.
I have encountered only one single player that uses the Tie bet as his bread/butter approach. He tracks/counts a few things. He hasn't given me the "secret ingredient" to his recipe (Nor have I asked). However, I'm guessing he tracks face cards and maybe even numbers too(0,2,4,..etc), and waits for a certain threshold count# is hit before wagering. Only wagering when the count is EV+ ,...etc.
When I play with him, I do allot a few wagers from my buyin to wager a T when and if he likes the setup(Often in the latter stages of the shoe), and typically only <=2-4 times per shoe.

*Note I have never pursued or researched or studied Tie wagers much so maybe something out there with the T bet that I do not know.



Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9, good links.

Even if one isn't involved with cryptos or crypto sites I encourage all to have an advanced cyber security company monitoring your home internet/ cell phone (A company that will actually see the perpetrators get prosecuted/ not just block the attack).

The following link re: crypto scams is a good read.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2022/12/28/over-3-billion-stolen-in-crypto-heists-here-are-the-eight-biggest/?sh=14995c07699f

AsymBacGuy in post 942:

"...At baccarat things are more restrained than what math dictates as each shoe is a world apart and deeply dependent to the actual card distribution.

Is this a "too general" statement to get a possible advantage from?

Bighorn.sh.it.

Anyone knowing the Smoluchowski's 'probability after effects' concept (not mentioning other statistical tools improving such idea) understands that an event or two (or more) events present sd values way lower than binomial independent models,..."


The key words (Restrained, Dependent) in your above statement are where a lot of players(and mathematicians) tend to have a difference of opinion.
I like to think of it as outcomes (i.e., event streaks) approach limits and these restrictive limits is why one outcome (say a total of 9) will not show 15 consecutive times for one side(P or B),  or why we never hear of P (or B) winning 40 consecutive times...etc.
I know this is an extreme example but IMO every single event outcome is never absolutely 100% independent (in card games such as bac).


Continued Success,

alrelax above:

Empowering Yourself 2024

    Good thread as we all start a new year of gambling.

I just returned today from a multi-night road trip to bring in the new year. Though I played multiple session each day of this recent 3-day/night trip I still took a few minutes to reflect back on my year of gaming while on this trip. Tomorrow I will do some year-end totals/closure and file my shoe /gaming results away. I will start the new year with optimism and very few changes (if any).


This particular trip I finished two days in the negative (-7U,-6U) and positive on the last day(+11U) for a net -2u for the trip. Nothing significant on any of the sessions or days. Typical swaying back and forth and as often the case a net winning (or net losing) day was often a function of winning that one or maybe two wagers in key spots. So my losing sessions do not cause much if any emotional change (as I lose sessions quite frequently ). However, I generally don't finish Net- after a whole day of 4-6 shoes. No biggie as my win days aren't always huge wins either.

This frequent hovering around -0- is by design as my M.O. is to stay disciplined and not try to force my will upon the shoe but to wait patiently for the shoe results to come to me. It keeps one on an even keel so that when that gravy-train shoe presents my balance isn't in a severe deficit and most of the streaks put me a strong positive balance. Ditto when Im fortunate and get in sync with an event streak as I try to not get too overly excited afterward. Simply reset, rinse and repeat.


Empowering Yourself 2024


From above I find the following very important and paramount to any gamer. The more one plays the more imperative the application.


1) Begin with a ritual of REFLECTION on your play.

*5) Engage in a real Money Management Method (MMM) that benefits yourself, your play and control with the  sessions you engage in. But engaging in it with a solemn adherence.

7) Concentrate on yourself, as in You-Vs-You at the table. It is all about you and only you. Do not let yourself be distracted with all the verbal and physical doings at a table.

*8- Allow your Money Management Method to have the last words at a session. Win, Lose or Draw. This is different than engaging in the MMM, (#5 above), this is the faith, grace and priority of applying a session closure, which is vital and the most important.


*I feel that 5 and 8  are the most important by far. I keep meticulous records from every shoe I play. I find it helpful to make notes on my scorecard as to what event or streak contributed the most toward the net+. Developing (and applying) 5 and 8 on every single session is what allows one to play the game without emotion regardless of if we finish the session net - or net+. It really helps one (or at least me) to treat gaming as a business or similar to investing in the stock market.




I hope all of you have a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2024.

It looks like u are a skilled chef.

Hi all,

AsymBacGuy in post #939 above:

"...Who we are to dispute the common notion that bac is an unbeatable game?

Answer: because we have managed to assign a code (albeit being imperfect) to each shoe dealt, a code capable to restrict the sd values typical of binomial models.
In poorer words, past hands make substantial variables to get advantage from.  ...,"

b]a code capable to restrict the sd values typical of binomial models.[/b]

That sounds promising. Though I am not 100% clear how you are applying your algos I do like that it appears you are attacking streak length(s).Though I think it could only be at brief moments and potentially only a very very few wagers per shoe. Maybe I'm wrong and not considering whatever you are considering.

    I agree anything a player does to lower SD values is good for the player. Meaning fewer wagers is nearly always superior to more wagers. I can not imagine trying to beat bac wagering every hand.
One of the greatest advantages we have at bac is ones ability to choose when to wager as well as when we do NOT have to wager(meaning not required to have a bet to play).
 
*MEMO Reminder--Do NOT play Bac solo at casinos that refuse to offer free hands.

RE: Asyms' topic of reducing SD values/ number of bets with the selective application of Algos.
Pardon me Asym as I may get a little off topic in the following,



I perceive much of what the casino does(Must wager every hand, drawing rules, cut/burn, bonus bets,new superduper layout designs with additional bonus wager...etc) is designed to increase the number of wagers the players will bet(which increases these hedges,i.e., Pushes) where the player absolutely can not win all bets with one outcome (but we can lose all). That is, T or pushed events are not designed to help the player.

**Re:Bonus bet layouts, new variation of games,...etc: As an addendum thought I do believe there is one layout in recent years that actually could be exploited(or at least Less Bad). I don't have one in my market, and I won't mention on a public forum. Most of u know which version I'm suggesting.

As a side note, I believe the main benefit to Bac vs most dice games is the fact it is finite(meaning marbles are removed from the jar after every draw). Like Asym hints at above---there will always be brief moments in a finite shoe where the advantage(or disadvantage) has fluctuated from expectation.

But I digress. So back to Asyms Topic:


Q: Asym , re: Restricting SD. Do you mean applying something like Markov Chains and say after seeing three events IAR(in a row), you are then trying to predict the distance to absorption??? Not at all? Other?

*Re: Markov Chains.

Though applicable to some casino games. It's my opinion we have to be careful trying to generalize from say true 2-outcome games such as coin flips (no ties or pushes as every single event must be 0 or 1), vs games like Bac where every single event can be (0,1, or other). These "other" outcomes hurt the bac player.  IMO because it is favorable to the casino to increase Ties (or pushes). The more the better for the casino as we sometimes "lose a win". Furthermore, we not only lose a win we also have shorter streak length (Hypothesis by Kungfubac). I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card).


Any thoughts or counter arguments?


Thx in advance,