Hi Asym

Good thoughts in post #895.

I have a couple thoughts/ questions but will need to ponder your essay a little more.




Cheers,

Good essay/several good points.

"...But I felt something and not just because I had a huge return on my $100. So into the following shoe, I reached well over $8,000 of win money and I called it quits once I drop down to $7,000 of pure win. All of it off that next to nothing $100 buy in. ..."

    that's an adequate ROI, 

"...Larger wins take a climb, meaning a bit back-and-forth, winning, losing, pushing back-and-forth, etc. Parlay and positive progression wagering really boosts the person's chip stacks, ..."


    I agree. The larger the win the larger the risk. The inverse is true as well(lower appetite for risk and one will win less/ may lose too. So lower risk tolerance can also bust a buyin.


"...So many believe it is an easy decision to make. I guess it depends on your experience, outlook, desires and goals. For myself, I love the point of working my drawdown, getting a bit of profit, working that into my money management method and looking for the 'takeoff'. And for me that is where the money is really at..."

    I agree--especially the part about understanding the inevitable drawdown.
Though I don't play any more or fewer hands after a sizeable win or loss. I might switch shoes or pause wagering if not in sync with the outcomes.

 Re: Drawdown:I feel we should exhaust our buyin (meaning we actually utilize the whole buyin), in our attempt to earn a sizeable return. A mistake I made early on was accepting the risk to my buyin but not really exhausting(putting the buyin to work), so my potential to earn my buyin was very low. Yet, I could physically still lose it all. Flat betting  or utilizing only minimal gyrations of negpro or pospro can still wipe out a buyin.


"...The 4 things I found that give me advantages into my play.

1). DO NOT ATTEMPT/LIVE to beat the game/session.  You can't and will never do it!  I promise you that;

    My opinion differs on this one. I attempt to beat the game every day/ when Im not playing Im researching, studying the game, discussing with others,  ..etc on how to improve and beat it. So I guess I am obsessed and live to beat the game. Much like trying to beat the stock market. One must be obsessed with winning as both are very arduous tasks. Sometimes I receive favor /sometimes I don't.

2). TRULY UNDERSTAND what you are up against;

3). CALM AND PATIENT.  Hard as heck to do with losses, but you must.  Don't dwell and don't have the mind frame to recover and win something;

    I agree this is the key. Its all about being patient(along with self discipline). Its easy to go on tilt when losing as well as when winning(Surprisingly many seem to have more difficulty with the winning). They won't allow themselves to really win big but will chase losses with their very last dollars.

4). UNDERSTAND AND REMAIN CONSCIOUS of the following.  Anything and everything can happen in no particular order or protocol whatsoever. ..."
    I agree.


Good read/ congrats on an excellent win.

Hi Asym--Good read above.

"...Basically casinos offer three kind of shoe shuffling:

a- manually

b- shuffling machines (the most utilized is the Shuffle Master and its variations)

c- preordered shuffle (HS rooms for example)..."

I once overheard a dealer respond to her pit boss when he asked was she ready to open the Bac game. She said yes but I accidentally did a BJ shuffle. His response was: "Fxxk it " just get the game started."

This was many years ago /I could not see the type of shuffler they were using(though I tried,lol). My question to Asym and others:

What shuffling options do casinos have with modern day shuffling machines for Bac. For example, do they have five buttons on the back (A,B,C,D,E,...etc) for whatever shuffle.

Do they have >= 3-4 different types of shuffles.?
I know they can order pre-shuffled cards with different types of shuffles.

I also know some casinos shuffles tend to generate certain profiles. *I have one cas that will most certainly have longer-than-expectation streaks of 2x2s. I noticed this about six years ago and have actually collected data to confirm my hypothesis.

I also know dealers that have indicated their instructions are to turn shuffler on for a predetermined number of minutes to supposedly insure an adequate shuffle. I've had dealers say they just turn the shuffler on, and it lets them know (green light comes on) when the shuffle is finished, . . .etc.

Any thoughts by anyone?


Thx in advance, kfb

Follow up to above MGM story on cyber attacks.
I saw the following story yesterday (9/26/23). It's interesting as I have a neighbor that started a cyber security business a couple years ago. When I first mentioned the MGM story a few days ago his first statement was: "I can assure you there is more to the story. MGM patrons' personal info has also been hacked."

According to him these cyber-attacks are nearly always by groups (Domestic/International) that are involved in other crimes (sex trafficking, laundering money, drug trades,..etc), and not just some 8th grader playing around at night in his bedroom just seeing who all he can hack.

He also said sometimes these large corporations feign cyber-attacks to cover up their own mess that is about to be discovered.
He said the hackers always get caught/prosecuted but often not for 2-5years because governments want to watch them and prosecute for the other crimes too (At least in the USA).



https://www.ktnv.com/news/complaints-filed-say-mgm-resorts-caesars-entertainment-failed-to-protect-information-from-cyberattack


Continued Success,

I agree 8OR9 and Asym.

As an addendum thought. I'm always amazed at people that will attend the casinos "FREE" class to learn how to play certain table game (i.e. Bac, BJ, Craps,..etc). Its funny the casino will often offer these free classes on a Tuesday(slow day) to also benefit from getting more patrons.

My second amazement is that a gamer would show up at a casino with money to "learn" how to play a game against their nemesis(casino) and taught by said nemesis.


Continued Success,

"Nobody has ever bet enough on a winning horse." – Anonymous

I've probably spent >40,000 minutes studying Bac(And Still Learning).


https://www.caesars.com/casino-gaming-blog/latest-posts/table-games/baccarat/how-to-play-baccarat?awc=21867_1695478186_0eb33a61d4dcc39c0d1c7ad208ad5a23&sn=1&utm_source=awin&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=AFF_show&utm_term=407399-Wildfire+Systems%2C+Inc.

Two Vegas casinos fell victim to cyberattacks

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/two-vegas-casinos-fell-victim-to-cyberattacks-shattering-the-image-of-impenetrable-casino-security/ar-AA1gNhsO

Hi Asym. I hope all is well.

In your post above #887:

"...At a given binomial succession, one of the simpler ways to ascertain randomness is to register the number of "runs", that is how many times a given side will shift to the opposite one...."

I like that statement. I also like to think of it as Distance-Between-Runs. I also like to view other outcomes as "Distance Between". For example, "Distance-Between-Sevens", et al #s. Even if this (Distance Between) concept doesn't always tell us exactly when an exact event is more probable it may still tell us if this shoe (thus far) is acting normally (random) or an outlier (significantly NOT random).

I find the outlier shoe more difficult to consistently prosper from because one MUST be in sync with the outcomes, or one digs a hole. A reason I'm also against wagering a static bet at a predetermined specific spot. If incorrect we can't climb out of the hole or must spend several shoes climbing out. I call these shoes erratic and will sometimes cease wagering or wait on next shoe if I'm not in sync early. 





Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy--I've enjoyed reading your algorithm posts.

"...Good news is that when both algorithms are in action, in the vast majority of the times the positive clustering effect of one al. will overwhelm the other performing bad and not by a kind of 'opposite' way of considering things...."

    Are you applying your algos in real time at a live table?
It also seems your methodology would be a good match for the Stadium Bac live dealer games.I've observed players entering ongoing data into an online app via iphone in real time.


"...Therefore whereas there's a point to bet toward a positive streak as the main goal is always oriented to achieve a homogeneous winning streak per shoe, ...

    I like the above/ much of my game lives/dies on early detection of said streaks.


...there are no reasons to 'limit' a negative occurence of any kind...."

    QQQQ--Please elaborate on this last part.



Thx as always,kfb

In alrelax post above:

"...No matter what he wins or loses, he cannot paint a picture with a decent relevant game plan that can bring him back around.  If we went tomorrow and he won $100K + he would give it all back..."

Much of what successful gamblers do to win more than they lose is very similar to the same personal attributes that makes one successful occupationally (Owning a business, investing,.etc). It does not matter as the same discipline, patience, observation, and willingness to exploit are all correlated.

Often it is how one handles the "bad" days that suggest how one handles the really great days. If a small business owner understands that certain months or quarters are slow, they may decide to cancel that expensive vacation or new car purchase, simply so they can pay employees and bills,...etc.

On really good days when a certain product lets say is really selling and maximizes profits what does a business owner do?? They buy more of that product and sellsellsell until the sales slow down.

Gambling success is much the same. If we want to be available(have the funds) on the great exploitive days, we must endure the really bad days. In other words do not go on tilt on the really bad days.

*A couple days ago across multiple shoes  and at one stage was down (-2400 Net), never positive, and recovered to (-500 or so) Net for the day. My hit rate wasn't really that bad and I never busted an individual buyin. However, I simply couldn't get that one extra win-in-a-row. Several bets if I had won that next wager then the above would have been reversed and I would have been Net+ maybe 1200---3600 or so. No big deal as the next morning I started my day the same way(just like a day trader, small business owner, doctor, mechanic,...etc).

Its my opinion our winning more than we lose (Net Longterm) has more to do with ones mindset, discipline, and patience. Versus some wizzardly bet placement or mechanical betting style.

Personally, I am prouder of myself on bad days when I do not buyin again in that same very awful, really bad shoe, then on shoes or days that are really easy. Everybody handles the really easy days well.

As in life everything is cyclical. Don't dwell on the bad days. However, and more importantly, be willing to accept and exploit the really good days. We shall see both.






Continued Success,

"The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him."
                                                              ---Leo Tolstoy, 1897

Hi AsymBacGuy

Thanks for your many fine posts.
re:post#871 above:

"...Algorithm action


The algorithm is set up by two levels:

a) a mechanical classification about the probability of getting this or that by math features applied to a coin flip proposition;

b) an evaluation of the above results by statistical standards more or less deviating from an 'average' card distribution so enticing or not the betting.
I've utilized the word 'evaluation' (a topic already touched in a previous post), as the actual action must be calibrated upon the goal the players aim for: there are people who wants to play a quite number of hands (I hope mainly for comp reasons) and there are players who want to be right at very selected situations by wagering huge sums...."

To help clarify my understanding:

Can you give an example of how many units is in your buyin?

Do you exhaust all of buyin within one single shoe?

Do you make a predetermined number of attempts within a shoe and then stop?

Do you make a predetermined number of Wins > than Losses and then stop?

Do you make "paper" bets until you see "Not a win", then commence your wagering--In other words wait and then expect a slight RTM?

If you miss a few do you start a slight neg progression to recoup a "less-than-desirable" hit rate?

Thx in advance

Thx Asym for recommendation on Billy Walters book.
I purchased tonight.


Cheers,

Hi AD
That would be a great motorcycle trek from your end of the country. Also nearby (approx 1 hour from Winstar) is the worlds "3rd or 4th largest casino" @ (Choctaw tribe) in Durant, OK (19miles from Texas state line) and approx 55miles from the Winstar.

Hi 8OR9
Yes live-dealer Bac tables at Winstar.
They may also have some electronic Bac with RNG though I've never seen them.


Cheers,