KungFuBac likes this:

"We've seen that some random walks working by a 0.75% probability of success itlr will form longer W successions than a proportional amount of L successions. (W=+1 and L=-3).
We've found out that the gap, albeit being rare to cross through, will provide us a strong statistical advantage."

Good post AsymBacGuy

Personally I find #2 easier to discern vs #1 or #3:

"2- Considering it to stop a L pattern of given lenght"



Continued Success,

Note in the following link below:

Pg. 3 NOTE the significant drop in Hold% for Bac starting in 2004.? Any thoughts as to why the hold % dropped from approx 18%--21% from 1992--2003, then a huge drop to mostly 11-12% from 2004--2023.
* My thinking was that maybe the increase in EZ Bac tables vs the old-school "Big Table". I don't know as just thinking out loud. There has to be some major change in the game for that to occur. Maybe just variance??

Any thoughts or theories??


NevadaTablesHold%


Thanks/credit to the UNLV Center For Gaming Research

Good to see the site back on line.

I agree with AsymBacGuy et al:

"...I still have to read a lot of posts made in the past by people who I'd consider among the best gambling scholars, you first.

Yep, we do not need a forum with magic systems, garbage sellers or threads soaked by fights and verbal abuse...."

This is the only Bac site I have ever joined. So I certainly missed it while it was down for maintenance.
    During the past couple weeks I searched for a decent Bac site that seemed to have veteran players(that actually played) and not just posters, system sellers, ...etc. I did not find any Bac sites that seemed satisfactory. I finally found a roulette site and a Sports Betting site with some worthwhile posts to read. The Sports-Betting site seemed to have some serious and full-time professional gamers(No real Bac players/posts though). The roulette site had some good posts from the past but only a handful of posts since 2022. However, roulette isn't my game of choice.

Bottom line: This site has an abundance of past/present posts for the serious Bac player /gamer. Hopefully some of the lurkers will join or signin more often. Maybe take a couple minutes and post a note, trip report, comment, ones local casino conditions, tell us where you play(B&M, online),ask questions, your biggest win, ...etc.



Continued Success To All,

Hi ADulay
They look identical IMO.




Continued Success,

Albalaha: "I believe it will again go up by the end of this year reaching new high again."

I agree as that is how the early hodlers and the current whales can make the most ROI. I expect we will see many gyrations from BTC in the coming years.

Currently /according to my calculations the present range suggests a ceiling @ approx 74k with a basil of 59k. The current price is 62k today 5/10/24. If it can't hold above 59 we may see another move downward in the near future. There is a large group of recent buyers that bought in around 52-54K and if they panic we may see another tanking.

*My recent 4 of 5 positions of BITI(proshares SHORT BTC) was liquidated at an ROI of 7.5%. I had a trailing sell order and this recent BTC uptick from 56--63k made it hit(BITI is a SHORT on BTC futures). This was my 4th of 5 tiers as previously noted in above posts. The earlier three tiers were liquidated at a >=13.5%, 16.6%, and 20.0 % ROI. My 5th of 5 tiers is on hold as Im thinking of just letting it run. I may even hold for a few months or years. I think we are going to wake up some morning and find BTC has plummeted like a lead weight.



Best of luck to all bitcoiners.

Where to Play Baccarat in Las Vegas for 2024

Baccarat is the most popular table game according to a 2024 Las Vegas Table Games Survey in terms of the number of installations.

Best Las Vegas baccarat casinos
Baccarat is dealt at 25 Las Vegas Strip casinos. It is also available at four downtown casinos and 15 off-strip and locals ones. The low limit games tend to be in the locals market. Downtown and Las Vegas Strip casinos often have higher minimum bets for it.

Minimum bets on the Las Vegas Strip
On the Las Vegas Strip, minimums range from $15 to $100. The following casinos deal baccarat on the Strip.

Aria
Bellagio
Caesars Palace
Cosmopolitan
Cromwell
Encore
Flamingo
Fontainebleau
Harrah's
Horseshoe
Luxor
Mandalay Bay
MGM Grand
Mirage
Palazzo
Paris
Park MGM
Planet Hollywood
Resorts World
Sahara
The Strat
Treasure Island
Venetian
Wynn

Minimum bets for downtown Las Vegas baccarat
The minimums in downtown Las Vegas range from $10 to $100. It can be found at four casinos downtown.

Circa
El Cortez
Golden Nugget
The D

Minimum bets at off-strip and locals casinos
Live baccarat minimums also range from $10 to $100 at locals and off-strip casinos.

Boulder Station
Durango
Gold Coast
Green Valley Ranch
M Resort
Mohegan
Orleans
Palace Station
Palms
Rampart
Red Rock
Rio
Santa Fe Station
South Point
Westgate

_________________________________________________________________
Stadium baccarat

Some Las Vegas Strip casinos also deal stadium baccarat. These gaming platforms/devices have dozens of seats with a video screen. A dealer in the center handles the cards for all players. There may be multiple hands running at the same time.

I also know that Gold Coast and some Station Casinos properties also have stadium baccarat. This includes Palace Station, which offers four games at once on its Dynasty Stadium.

The Las Vegas electronic table games(ETG) can be sorted into three different categories: heads-up, stadium, and multiplayer.

My preference is the Stadium or the multiplayer. Im not a fan of the "heads-up" version as many casinos in the Midwest, USA are offering this type of game.
I much prefer the live dealer Stadium setup where we can select between >= two or four live dealer games in real time.

Re: All forms of electronic table games. There are at least sixty-nine Las Vegas area properties that have at least one version. However, this does not include every casino with electronic table games. Many smaller locals casinos also offer ETGs.

The following have at least one form of ETG <=4/24.

Las Vegas areas
Downtown Las Vegas
Binion's
California
Circa
Downtown Grand
El Cortez
Fremont
Golden Gate
Golden Nugget
Main Street Station
Plaza
The D

Las Vegas Strip
Aria
Bellagio
Caesars Palace
Casino Royale
Circus Circus
Cosmopolitan
Cromwell
Encore
Excalibur
Flamingo
Fontainebleau
Harrah's
Horseshoe
Linq
Luxor
Mandalay Bay
MGM Grand
Mirage (Hard Rock)
New York-New York
O'Sheas
Palazzo
Paris
Park MGM
Planet Hollywood
Resorts World
Sahara
Slots A Fun
The Strat
Treasure Island
Tropicana
Venetian
Wynn
Locals and off-strip casinos
Aliante
Boulder Station
Cannery
Durango
Ellis Island
Gold Coast
Green Valley Ranch
M Resort
Mohegan
Ojos Locos
Orleans
Oyo
Palace Station
Palms
Red Rock
Rio
Sam's Town
Santa Fe Station
Silver Sevens
Silverton
South Point
Suncoast
Sunset Station
Tuscany
Westgate
Wildfire Rancho


Credit in part to Kristina Mehaffey,Advantage Media


Continued Success,

It may seem like triple zero roulette has taken over Las Vegas. There are almost 100 triple zero tables in the market these days and over 200 double zero ones. However, there are a few Las Vegas casinos that deal single zero roulette. April,2024 there are 29 tables in vegas. That is just 8% of the total roulette tables in the Las Vegas market. There are over three times more triple zero wheels.
     *Im guessing the same folks that play the "Big Wheel" are also visiting the 000 roulette
      wheel. Just an opinion by KungFuBac.

There are two types of Las Vegas single zero roulette. One is called European Roulette. It uses a single zero wheel and adds several bets that are not available on most other roulette felts. The big rule change in European Roulette is that the player only loses half their bet on even money wagers like red, black, odd, even, high, and low when the ball lands on zero. This is called la partage.

The other type of single zero roulette in Las Vegas is the traditional one. Every bet on the felt has the same payout as it would on a double or triple zero wheel.

The house edge in single zero roulette is 2.7%. It drops to 1.35% in European Roulette for bets that qualify under the la partage rule.

Cheapest Las Vegas single zero roulette
Plaza offers the cheapest single zero roulette game in Las Vegas. It starts at $15. The minimum bet sometimes goes up to $25 during busy hours. It is the first table game you see when entering Plaza from Main Street. Plaza's single zero roulette opens daily at night. It is sometimes available during the day.

Las Vegas locals casinos with single zero roulette
There are three Las Vegas local casinos with single zero roulette. It is available at Durango, Red Rock Resort, and Green Valley Ranch. The minimum bet is $200 at Durnago and Red Rock and $50 at Green Valley Ranch. The game may drop to $100 during the slowest hours at Durango and Red Rock.

All three Station Casinos have traditional single zero tables. La partage is not available.

Most other roulette at locals casinos is double zero. There are three triple zero tables in the locals market. 

Las Vegas Strip casinos with single zero roulette
All remaining single zero roulette tables in the market are on the Las Vegas Strip. All are in high limit salons.

The limits below are what we found during the slowest hours in our last Las Vegas table game survey. These limits are likely to be higher at night and on weekends. Some of these tables are only open on busy shifts.

$50 European Roulette
Treasure Island (often closed, may need reservations)

$100 European Roulette
Aria
Cosmopolitan
Fontainebleau
Mandalay Bay (limited hours)
Mirage
Park MGM
Resorts World

$200 to $500 European Roulette
Bellagio
Encore
MGM Grand
Wynn


$100 single zero roulette
These tables have single zero wheels but do not offer la partage.

Caesars Palace
Palazzo ($50 when slow)
Venetian $50 when slow)
Single zero roulette payouts
Payouts on single zero roulette tables are the same as ones with two or three zeros. It is impossible to bet more than one zero at single zero or European Roulette. There is also no basket bet.


 
Special thanks goes out to John Mehaffey, Advantage Media.


Continued Success,

"The less you bet, the more you lose when you win." – Bob Nastanovich

Well, BTC tanked again today down to: @ (56K) on 5/1/24.

Yesterday was kind of concerning as BTC started tanking. The market boards from several exchanges immediately stopped showing the "Daily" ticker for BTC (& several of the other popular cryptos). Other cryptos tanked too (some 7--15% in one day). The week,month,yr charts were still visible.  So unless one did a deep dive and searched specifically for the current "Day" price one could only see BTC listed when it was @ approx 61k--62K about 12--18hours earlier. One could not see its live price tankishly declining(i.e., tanking)  price as it fell through 61k,60k,59k,58k,57k,..etc over a 12--24hours period.

Then all of a sudden AFTER the regular markets closed at 4pm central the crypto tickers "Daily" charts then became visible. If one clicked on the daily ticker price one could only see a message: "That chart is currently not available, check back later." This went on for hours.

Of course after the market (USA Stock Exchanges) closed then investors could no longer enter a "sell" on their BTC "SHORT" ETFs (Such as BITI) which is one of the most widely held BTC "Short" position. This seems suspicious (Though maybe there is an explanation).

As mentioned in several above posts I own BITI(fortunately I entered "Sale" trades when I initially bought BITI several weeks ago), my 3rd of 5 tiers hit yesterday. This third of five tiers hit yesterday: 20% at a profit of >=20%.
My 4th and 5th tiers now have trailing "sales" stops as I raised both respectively yesterday, otherwise the 4th would have hit for just a 7.5% ROI today.

My perception is that BTC will drop further before it gets pumped up again by the large "whales" BTC holders.

Just my opinion.


Good luck to all investors,

Thx Asym for your essays.

In post #1036 above Asym says:

"...4- Betting two times the same side is particularly powerful when the first (losing) bet was made at Banker side and not involving the singles one/two distribution.  ..."

    I like your suggestion of making only two swipes against an event. It seems many like something similar to a 1-2 negpro(i.e., $100,200). I seldom do a neg progression but when I do its for only two attempts and the first tier is typically 1.0 BU and then 1.05 BU.

The main attribute to this two-attempt approach is that we will often win that FIRST attempt. In cases where I lose the first two attempts @ (1.0, 1.05) my next two attempts going against another event would likely be: (1.7, 2.4). I typically don't chase after that (4 L against 2 events) and any type of negpro after the first few event(s) would be for partial recovery only(Or I would just abort the mission). My premise for not chasing is that I can make up most of the $ from these four failed attempts with a simple pospro on one or two parlays when Im in sync with the Variance.

I mostly live/die by Pos progression and compounding for the simple reason: I don't want to put more money on the table when Im losing.  So this "two-attempt negpro" in my mind is just the right length. Plus we will often get the W on that first attempt.
Just my opinion.


Thx again for your posts.

BTC @ 62,700 today 42624.

As mentioned in previous posts I do not currently have any BTC/ have been betting that BTC will drop from its high of ~~73K by purchasing BITI(Proshares Short BTC).

I was able to unravel the 2nd of 5 tiers from my short position on BTC (BITI) last Wednesday (a week ago). Reminder: The BITI moves in the opposite direction of BTC futures.

My sell was for 20% of my stake at a >=16.6% profit. I still have 3 of 5 tiers remaining and though the next tier will potentially hit today or Monday the remaining two tiers are still a little underwater as I will need BTC to drop below 60K and then toward the 54k-56 range. If this 3rd tier does indeed hit Im golden/ will have several options for how to play the remaining two positions. Possibly an arbitrage situation going forward. Though Im not an advocate for hedging(Investing or gambling).


The volatility of BTC makes it difficult to project(at least for me). So I also have two additional tier Buys in place to purchase more BITI. If BTC spikes and hits the >=73K, and then 84Kish targets. In other words I have the squeeze on BTC(i.e. My KUNGFU Grip     ) At least if BTC doesn't skyrocket to >=90K in the near future. Then BTC would have me in a choke hold or at least force me into waiting for a few weeks to months,...etc.

If BTC were to hit 90K before it drops  on down to 59K I would just wait it out. As I would likely be required to just hold my last two tiers and hope for a huge decrease in BTC sometime in the future. I started placing these tiers several weeks ago so Im optimistic by bets will come to fruition within the next few days to weeks.



Good luck to all crypto investors

Great pics. I look forward to the tote board pics and all the details.



Continued Success,

Hi 8OR9
Good read. I had not heard of this one. I suspect we will eventually see more/more of these (FTX) type scenarios exposed. The media (in the U.S. ) seems to only give these stories a brief mention.


I saw this story a few days ago:

"...SLERF developer wipes out 50% of token supply
SLERF's developer announced on Monday that he accidentally burnt nearly 50% of the token's supply, losing $10 million in funds belonging to presale participants..."

 
What do you tell your investors (i.e., presale participants): "Whoops my bad"

It will be interesting to see if any consequences(restitution/ prison time) will be doled out eventually.



Continued Success,

Thx AsymBacGuy. Good thread.

In Post #1033 above:
"...Think about sections containing 6, 7 or more consecutive streaks without no singles and the exact opposite scenario.
Those are natural "strong" deviations that must be balanced along the way, otherwise the game would be easily beatable.

Anyway such balancement most of the time doesn't act symmetrically as the transitory deficit will be overcome by low or moderate changes of direction, privileging opposite short patterns than long patterns...."

For me this "MODERATE CHANGE" being detected early on is the key to seeing it just a split second sooner. This is one of many reasons I prefer to play a shoe from the burn onward/ not after the shoe has started.
Its no different then if someone tells you their blood pressure is 120/80 or their pulse is 72. The values become more important once we learn this persons historical average, and how much it has changed, and in which direction.
Its all about the change.




Continued Success,