Hi AsymBacGuy

In your post a couple days ago:
"...Algos work because they try to estimate the relationship between the actual card distribution and the "average card distribution".

Players "guessing" doesn't work because it tends to get rid of the "average" privileging the "actual".

On the contrary, "triggers" players do not win either as they put too much emphasis about the "expected" instead of assigning a proper value on the "actual"...."

There was once a Bac App on youtube a group was selling that one could use to make a decision on P vs B. I also see players at Stadium Bac in Biloxi,Mississippi, USA  et al casinos utilizing an app on their phone. They would enter each and every card extracted. The casinos didn't seem to care as they walked by and didn't ask questions or say anything.


* I do not know if the app was analyzing patterns and then utilizing an algorithm to project a winner based on the previous patterns or simply assessing the cards removed (& remaining) and projecting a winner based on that alone(The edge would only be minimal on the latter and still may not neutralize 100% of house edge, IMO).


Any thoughts?

I typically don't play Bac on Sunday. However, a bac comrade asked I travel with him to check out a new Bac Version: 3 Dice Bac by Galaxy Gaming. The design and rules are as follows:

Three dice are placed in a cup for each side Player and Banker.
Each cup has a clear lid. The dealer shakes each cup and flips the cup upside down in front of the players and raises the cup upward from the lid exposing the three dice with the top of each die(3) totaling the respective scores.
The totals are calculated like cards(e.g., 3 Die total of 12 would result in that sides' score being 2)

*Commission Free
     *Push on a win with totals = 3-0( for both sides).
*No drawing rules
*Several bonus wagers such as any 3-0 win, with payout of 35-0. So players could hedge on the above push if one desires.
*My research indicates that some casinos will allow the players to shake the cup. Though the casino I played did not allow players to shake the cup.
 
My Questions:
Anybody played this version?
What is the house edge for the 3-0 Push?
Addendum thoughts and suggestions?


Thanks in advance,kfb

From Billy Walters, the world's greatest and most successful sports gambler.

A great read with several applications to other types of gambling. Thanks to forum alum AsymBacGuy for recommending this book. I purchased a couple weeks after its release and concur with Asym's opinion.

Gambler Secrets from a Life at Risk(Billy Walters,2023)



Continued Success,

Delayed decision re: Bitcoin ETF application by Black Rock.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/bitcoin-etf-spot-sec-ark-21-shares-crypto-market-2023-9

Five class-action lawsuits filed against Vegas casinos for neglecting to protect personal ID records

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/mgm-caesars-face-class-action-lawsuits-over-cyberattacks-2910637/#:~:text=Five%20class%20action%20lawsuits%20filed%20in%20Nevada%20District,compromised%20during%20separate%20attacks%20made%20public%20this%20month.

Hi Asym

Good thoughts in post #895.

I have a couple thoughts/ questions but will need to ponder your essay a little more.




Cheers,

Good essay/several good points.

"...But I felt something and not just because I had a huge return on my $100. So into the following shoe, I reached well over $8,000 of win money and I called it quits once I drop down to $7,000 of pure win. All of it off that next to nothing $100 buy in. ..."

    that's an adequate ROI, 

"...Larger wins take a climb, meaning a bit back-and-forth, winning, losing, pushing back-and-forth, etc. Parlay and positive progression wagering really boosts the person's chip stacks, ..."


    I agree. The larger the win the larger the risk. The inverse is true as well(lower appetite for risk and one will win less/ may lose too. So lower risk tolerance can also bust a buyin.


"...So many believe it is an easy decision to make. I guess it depends on your experience, outlook, desires and goals. For myself, I love the point of working my drawdown, getting a bit of profit, working that into my money management method and looking for the 'takeoff'. And for me that is where the money is really at..."

    I agree--especially the part about understanding the inevitable drawdown.
Though I don't play any more or fewer hands after a sizeable win or loss. I might switch shoes or pause wagering if not in sync with the outcomes.

 Re: Drawdown:I feel we should exhaust our buyin (meaning we actually utilize the whole buyin), in our attempt to earn a sizeable return. A mistake I made early on was accepting the risk to my buyin but not really exhausting(putting the buyin to work), so my potential to earn my buyin was very low. Yet, I could physically still lose it all. Flat betting  or utilizing only minimal gyrations of negpro or pospro can still wipe out a buyin.


"...The 4 things I found that give me advantages into my play.

1). DO NOT ATTEMPT/LIVE to beat the game/session.  You can't and will never do it!  I promise you that;

    My opinion differs on this one. I attempt to beat the game every day/ when Im not playing Im researching, studying the game, discussing with others,  ..etc on how to improve and beat it. So I guess I am obsessed and live to beat the game. Much like trying to beat the stock market. One must be obsessed with winning as both are very arduous tasks. Sometimes I receive favor /sometimes I don't.

2). TRULY UNDERSTAND what you are up against;

3). CALM AND PATIENT.  Hard as heck to do with losses, but you must.  Don't dwell and don't have the mind frame to recover and win something;

    I agree this is the key. Its all about being patient(along with self discipline). Its easy to go on tilt when losing as well as when winning(Surprisingly many seem to have more difficulty with the winning). They won't allow themselves to really win big but will chase losses with their very last dollars.

4). UNDERSTAND AND REMAIN CONSCIOUS of the following.  Anything and everything can happen in no particular order or protocol whatsoever. ..."
    I agree.


Good read/ congrats on an excellent win.

Hi Asym--Good read above.

"...Basically casinos offer three kind of shoe shuffling:

a- manually

b- shuffling machines (the most utilized is the Shuffle Master and its variations)

c- preordered shuffle (HS rooms for example)..."

I once overheard a dealer respond to her pit boss when he asked was she ready to open the Bac game. She said yes but I accidentally did a BJ shuffle. His response was: "Fxxk it " just get the game started."

This was many years ago /I could not see the type of shuffler they were using(though I tried,lol). My question to Asym and others:

What shuffling options do casinos have with modern day shuffling machines for Bac. For example, do they have five buttons on the back (A,B,C,D,E,...etc) for whatever shuffle.

Do they have >= 3-4 different types of shuffles.?
I know they can order pre-shuffled cards with different types of shuffles.

I also know some casinos shuffles tend to generate certain profiles. *I have one cas that will most certainly have longer-than-expectation streaks of 2x2s. I noticed this about six years ago and have actually collected data to confirm my hypothesis.

I also know dealers that have indicated their instructions are to turn shuffler on for a predetermined number of minutes to supposedly insure an adequate shuffle. I've had dealers say they just turn the shuffler on, and it lets them know (green light comes on) when the shuffle is finished, . . .etc.

Any thoughts by anyone?


Thx in advance, kfb

Follow up to above MGM story on cyber attacks.
I saw the following story yesterday (9/26/23). It's interesting as I have a neighbor that started a cyber security business a couple years ago. When I first mentioned the MGM story a few days ago his first statement was: "I can assure you there is more to the story. MGM patrons' personal info has also been hacked."

According to him these cyber-attacks are nearly always by groups (Domestic/International) that are involved in other crimes (sex trafficking, laundering money, drug trades,..etc), and not just some 8th grader playing around at night in his bedroom just seeing who all he can hack.

He also said sometimes these large corporations feign cyber-attacks to cover up their own mess that is about to be discovered.
He said the hackers always get caught/prosecuted but often not for 2-5years because governments want to watch them and prosecute for the other crimes too (At least in the USA).



https://www.ktnv.com/news/complaints-filed-say-mgm-resorts-caesars-entertainment-failed-to-protect-information-from-cyberattack


Continued Success,

I agree 8OR9 and Asym.

As an addendum thought. I'm always amazed at people that will attend the casinos "FREE" class to learn how to play certain table game (i.e. Bac, BJ, Craps,..etc). Its funny the casino will often offer these free classes on a Tuesday(slow day) to also benefit from getting more patrons.

My second amazement is that a gamer would show up at a casino with money to "learn" how to play a game against their nemesis(casino) and taught by said nemesis.


Continued Success,

"Nobody has ever bet enough on a winning horse." – Anonymous

I've probably spent >40,000 minutes studying Bac(And Still Learning).


https://www.caesars.com/casino-gaming-blog/latest-posts/table-games/baccarat/how-to-play-baccarat?awc=21867_1695478186_0eb33a61d4dcc39c0d1c7ad208ad5a23&sn=1&utm_source=awin&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=AFF_show&utm_term=407399-Wildfire+Systems%2C+Inc.

Two Vegas casinos fell victim to cyberattacks

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/two-vegas-casinos-fell-victim-to-cyberattacks-shattering-the-image-of-impenetrable-casino-security/ar-AA1gNhsO

Hi Asym. I hope all is well.

In your post above #887:

"...At a given binomial succession, one of the simpler ways to ascertain randomness is to register the number of "runs", that is how many times a given side will shift to the opposite one...."

I like that statement. I also like to think of it as Distance-Between-Runs. I also like to view other outcomes as "Distance Between". For example, "Distance-Between-Sevens", et al #s. Even if this (Distance Between) concept doesn't always tell us exactly when an exact event is more probable it may still tell us if this shoe (thus far) is acting normally (random) or an outlier (significantly NOT random).

I find the outlier shoe more difficult to consistently prosper from because one MUST be in sync with the outcomes, or one digs a hole. A reason I'm also against wagering a static bet at a predetermined specific spot. If incorrect we can't climb out of the hole or must spend several shoes climbing out. I call these shoes erratic and will sometimes cease wagering or wait on next shoe if I'm not in sync early. 





Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy--I've enjoyed reading your algorithm posts.

"...Good news is that when both algorithms are in action, in the vast majority of the times the positive clustering effect of one al. will overwhelm the other performing bad and not by a kind of 'opposite' way of considering things...."

    Are you applying your algos in real time at a live table?
It also seems your methodology would be a good match for the Stadium Bac live dealer games.I've observed players entering ongoing data into an online app via iphone in real time.


"...Therefore whereas there's a point to bet toward a positive streak as the main goal is always oriented to achieve a homogeneous winning streak per shoe, ...

    I like the above/ much of my game lives/dies on early detection of said streaks.


...there are no reasons to 'limit' a negative occurence of any kind...."

    QQQQ--Please elaborate on this last part.



Thx as always,kfb