Hi XXVV

Good to hear from you again/I hope this finds you doing well.


What are your price projections for BTC et al more widely held cryptos??


Thx in advance,

Hi ADulay. Your Bitcoin purchase looks like a great investment.

"...I probably have no reason to sell it and doubt I will ever sell it as my buddies are always telling me how it's going to be worth a real lot of money "in the future"...."

    IMO that logic by early crypto investors is part of the reason BTC has continued escalating. I saw an article a few weeks ago that indicated most (90%) of the early investors from (10-15 yrs. ago) had not sold any, nor bought additional. It also appears some of the whales aren't selling any either. I also read that over 90% of all crypto investors had lost it all or net- . Most early investors in BTC are in the positive with little reason to sell. Similar to AD thoughts above.

Investing in ammo is probably a good way to realize some profits justincase BTC moves south somewhere down the road. I know a couple Bac players that buy ammo/silver bullion as an investment. Im not sure how they profit from the ammo purchases (maybe sell to others at a markup). Maybe use themselves and save because ammo seems to always be increasing in price. I don't really know/haven't asked them.


ADulay in the initial post above:

"... What is the actual PLAN for your crypto "investments"?

Is it merely to make money, as in any gambling endeavor?

Is it to build something for on down the road when retirement looms large?

With your holdings in crypto, can you use it to live on or plan with for future expenditures?

Do you consider it a real investment in the future or merely something to dabble in while stumbling forward in life?  ..."



The few times I have bought Bitcoin(I have never purchased any of the other cryptos), my objective was to buy it/ immediately unload it(100%) into the purchase of Gold/Silver bullion.

My goal was to time it and unload it asap(within days if possible). I was stressed the whole time because of the huge fluctuations. My last investment was when BTC was stuck in a band from 16k--21k. My objective was to make >=7.35% on BTC volatility and buy into this difference between BTC and gold/silver prices. As you know precious metals have extremely high intrinsic value/very low volatility and seldom fluctuate >1% in a day or even a week. I've made between 7.5%--13.5%(Net after fees) everytime I've done this btc-to-gold transaction. Of course, once I utilize my BTC I then have to buy more later on within a range that may research suggests that Im buying into the lower end of this band width. So far I have been spot on with unloading the btc into precious metals in a few days for a net of 7-13% (which is huge when buying precious metals).

However, where I have been wrong, for example, is my last batch of btc was unloaded near 21K. I had bought it just above 17K I believe. My projections after unloading it at that time was that BTC would cycle down to 14K before it would hit 40K. Obviously, it didn't regress to 14k but instead blasted on through 40K with a lot of fluctuation in between, yet it continued upward. I have no intention of buying at current levels and attempting my methodology above.

Re: Precious metals.
Up until a few months ago several of the larger precious metals dealers in USA would accept five cryptos as a form of payment. It seems like it was BTC,Doge,Shib,Eth, and another I don't recall. They often give a 3-4% discount if one pays with eChk,Ach, or wire(but one has a wire fee though). If one uses a Visa it's a fee of 4% or so I believe and any of the above cryptos were the most costly with an additional 1.5--1.75% fee above all other payment methods. They didn't care as they instantly converted to USD and charged an additional fee for the transaction. Obviously eChk or Ach is optimal as no fees and one actually gets a 3-4% discount.

Well, I bought a batch of gold about two weeks ago /when I placed the order with this particular PM company they obviously still accept the typical payment forms. However, they now only accept one crypto (BTC). Plus, now they actually give a 3% discount for btc. They do not accept payment from any other cryptos. I thought this recent policy change was interesting.


Continued Success,

Thx alrelax

"...The non-Macau style games are all using dual deck continuous shuffle decks.  Once the shoe is finished, the dealer removes approximately one deck from the discard tower and washes on the table.  Repeats 8 times.  Then reinserts into the machine.  Removes the other shuffled stack, cuts, burns, places into shoe.

Macau style games are a bit different all over.  But most in Midwest and Vegas are basically, pre shuffled shoe in locked plexiglass container is put on table from floor supervisor, zip lock ID cut & opened, deck cut by player if desired and cards burned.

I have witnessed a few casinos willing to do a quick mini shuffle of those after pre-shuffled shoe opened...."

    Good info. If I recall correctly Asym has mentioned in previous posts that Continuous Shuffle Machines seem to produce different types of streaks vs other shuffle procedures.

*re: shuffles. I think I have mentioned in posts a couple years ago about two instances that made me pause/think about the shuffle.

A) I was the only player at a table in KC, Missouri, USA, as the dealer was opening it for the day. This was probably 15 years or so ago. The dealer kept doing the ribbon on the table, running the shoes back through the shuffler(I don't recall the type), and then doing the ribbon again. The dealer motions to the pit mgr and says "it keeps telling me Jokers are in the deck but they are absolutely not." Finally, the Pit Mgr tells him "F--k it just get the game going. It was one of the most erratic, streaky, and most fantastic shoes I have ever played.

B) I was at a casino on the outskirts of Vegas. I was first player at table an the lady dealer is prepping to open the table/the pit mgr. comes by table telling her to hurry up. She says, "I accidentally did a blackjack shuffle". He says something to the nature of "F--k it just get the game started as we are 15mins late,...etc." Again, a very streaky, erratic, and fantastic shoe and win for me.
I didn't notice the shuffle machine or what she had done prior(preshuffled decks or not,..etc). I still do not understand what she could have meant by saying "I accidentally did a blackjack shuffle". Maybe the shuffler had the option for different types of games shuffle?? Maybe a longer or shorter shuffle time (e.g., 1 min, 2min,5min,..etc).Maybe something she did manually prior to shuffle,..etc.


Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy
Thank you for the prompt reply.

I misworded my initial question. I meant to ask about CSM (Continuous Shuffle Machines)in Vegas.

*Most of my casinos in the Midwest, USA utilize two 6-deck blocks of cards and alternate when one block has been completely dealt. It doesn't matter if they are ordered as preshuffled they still run through the shuffle machine. When one 6-deck block has been completely dealt the block currently in the shuffle machine is brought out/ribboned(cut and burn procedure completed), placed in the table-top smart shoe, then dealt to the end,...etc.


I found an informative link below regarding shuffle machines.

A deep dive into Continuous Shuffle Machines



Hope everyone has a good week,

Good thoughts everyone.

AsymBacguy: "...Strip or off Strip and from a technical point of view, in our opinion a good rule of thumb would be to only join tables where a machine shuffles the cards..."

Do you happen to have a list of Vegas casinos with "machine shuffle" ?? What about Biloxi, MS casinos?

Im guessing your list above of top four Vegas cas do indeed have machine shuffles.


Thx,

Btc at 61,916 today 3/2/24. This is insane, however, it is fun to watch. Hopefully any bitcoiner forum members are taking a little profit.

As I have mentioned in previous posts I haven't owned any btc since it was approx 20K range. I would buy a little and wait until the volatility provided a >=7% quick profit(occasionally 13% or so). I would then buy precious metals bullion, This approach has worked great thus far as btc is so volatile that I typcially only had to watch a few days to unload the btc.

Of course once I had spent my btc I had to wait for it to regress/yoyo within a band width that I thought I had more potential for it to up,...etc. I've been waiting/waiting/waiting but its obviously on a run. So I haven't been able to rinse/repeat since $20K.

I actually have been adding additional BITI (Short btc futures) and tried to add another tier @ $8.35 this past week but didn't quite reach it as BITI currently sets at $8.56.

In a recent interview with Warren Buffet he suggested all the btc and especially the new ETF offerings on btc derivatives is simply a way for the financial markets to tap into the inherent gambling nature of human beings. I tend to agree.

IMO the financial investing world is benefitting tremendously from this new influx of billions into the new ETFs. Many investors perceive this is a way to invest into btc(though they don't actually own any btc). However, if btc continues to escalate they may indeed make money. Though what goes up must come down(eventually). Just my opinion.

*We were discussing btc at the bac tables a couple days ago and one of the Bac comrades suggested to the pit boss they should run a BTC ticker tape in table pit(Like the NY stock exchange runs on wall street). We could all watch from our tables and place bets (daily expiration) with fellow gamers. You could form your ticket within any bet(or payout: 1:1, 2:1,...etc) the two-member party agreed upon.

His idea was that we could design our own ticket(wager), go over to a kiosk and enter(similar to how we do sports betting at the Caesars portal in casinos). We would have to verify funds by front money, credit line, or electronically(chk account) so casino could confirm. We would print three tickets for each bettor, and one for the casino to hold. Then we both walk to the cashiers cage and attach $1 each per ticket(regardless of amount of wager). When the bet was settled that day the winner would go to the cage and show the ticket. The winner would get their $1 back, the casino keeps the losers' $1 as profit, and pays the winner.

An example: Im sitting at the table with forum member Albalaha. We look at the ticker scrolling over head and note BTC @ 61,900. I tell Albalaha I think BTC will hit 61,800 "before" it hits 62,000. We go to the Kiosk and enter the wager, print out 3 tickets, go over to cage and register with cage(along with our $1 each).

Another example of great ideas coming from the bac tables. 

Any thoughts or ideas?



Continued success to all,

Hi Asym

"...especially if [bWe want to adopt a multilayered betting scheme[/b] capable to start (or stop) the action whenever at previous streak appearance the increasing values (I) seemed to deviate for too long the expected values.
.."


Q: What is your preferred multi-layered betting scheme (e.g., 1-1, 1-2, 124, 137, other...etc) ?


Thx in advance,

Personally, I'm partial to Bellagio's. First class atmoshphere along with well trained professional staff.
The ranking IMO is reasonable and justified. I've played many times at all (except Aria). I seldom play at Aria but hear good things from locals, so I don't have an informed opinion.

Red Rock is nice, clean, and a quiet atmosphere. I don't play there very often.

Any and all opinions are welcomed.


https://www.gambleonline.co/casino/land-based/las-vegas/baccarat/

https://www.casino.org/news/baccarat-drives-performance-select-strip-casinos/

"...Just wait 5-6 months to see an all time high price, easily going over $80k...."

I will revisit this thread in less than 5-6 months. The lessons to be learned could be better stated as: "Some lessons can't be taught."

I do admire the marketing of bitcoin et al cryptos as it will go down in history as a marketing masterpiece. The gold-colored coin with a capitol "B" along with a $ sign. Marketing genius. I wonder why they didn't choose a rock, stick, SIM card, computer mouse,..etc.

The losers are ill-informed buyers caught up in the spiral of greed. The result is a massive transfer of wealth from ordinary families to internet promoters. Opinion by Kungfubac.

Some of the early clues that crypto was on a hype train and not a sound financial investment:

a)The U.S. media was all for it and incessantly singing the praises and virtues of all things cryptos.
Financial gurus such as Michael Saylor, Max Kaiser, Jim Cramer,...etc  plugged it every chance(until it tanked numerous times. Jim Cramer has for years had a financial show on CNBC, written books,...etc. His picks have been so horrendous for the past three(as in 30yrs)  decades that a (Anti Jim Cramer) stock index has been formed, lol. The (SJIM). He still writes books and has a financial advice show.

b) It was first proclaimed to be a currency, now, a commodity, IMO a commodity at best.

c) It can't go up unless someone pays you more for it. The greater fools theory fits it best vs Ponzi scheme. A ponzi scheme runs out of new investors and the perpetrator runs out of funds to make any payouts. See Bernie Madoff.

We all could buy 10,000 items with it tomorrow and it wouldn't necessarily go up(or down). It does nothing and produces nothing. An interesting and theoretical concept, at best.

d) It helps to understand that a bitcoin has no value at all.

Since its inception promoters incessantly claim cryptocurrency is valuable as (1) a means of payment, (2) a store of value and/or (3) a thing in itself. None of these claims are true.

1. Means of Payment. Bitcoins are accepted almost nowhere vs proclamations of everywhere, and most cryptocurrencies nowhere at all. Even where accepted, a currency whose value can swing 10 percent or more in a single day is useless as a means of payment.

2. Store of Value. Extreme price volatility also makes bitcoin undesirable as a store of value. And the storehouses — the cryptocurrency trading exchanges — are far less reliable and trustworthy than ordinary banks and brokers.

3. Thing in Itself. A bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It only has value if people think other people will buy it for a higher price — the Greater Fool theory.

Cryptocurrency is best-suited for one use: Criminal activity. Because transactions can be anonymous — law enforcement cannot easily trace who buys and sells — its use is dominated by illegal endeavors.

Most heavy users of bitcoin are criminals, such as Silk Road and WannaCry ransomware. Too many bitcoin exchanges have experienced spectacular heists, such as NiceHash and Coincheck, or outright fraud, such as Mt. Gox and Bitfunder. Way too many Initial Coin Offerings are scams — 418 of the 902 ICOs in 2017 have already failed.
*Note--See FTX, See Sam Bankman-Fried.

Bitcoin transactions are sometimes promoted as instant and nearly free, but they're often relatively slow and expensive. It takes about an hour for a bitcoin transaction to be confirmed, and the bitcoin system is limited to five transactions per second. MasterCard can process 38,000 per second. Transferring $100 from one person to another costs about $6 using a cryptocurrency exchange, and well less than $1 using an electronic check.

Bitcoin is absurdly wasteful of natural resources. Because it is so compute-intensive, it takes as much electricity to create a single bitcoin — a process called "mining" — as it does to power an average American household for two years. If bitcoin were used for a large portion of the world's commerce (which won't happen), it would consume a very large portion of the world's electricity, diverting scarce power from useful purposes.

Not a peep from the climate folks and environmentalists.


I agree with most of the opinions above. Reference and kudos also go to B. Harris, former CEO of Intuit and founding CEO of PayPal and Personal Capital. He has written many fine articles regarding all things bitcoin.

Me above:"... Personally, I do not currently own Bitcoin, though I have recently purchased two installments($13.01,$11.50) of BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF), which moves in the opposite direction of Bitcoin futures. Its my opinion we..."

I added another tier on BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF) this past week at $10.40. I do not currently own any long postions in bitcoin.


Re: Bitcoin halving. Supposedly "halving" is part of the Bitcoin network's code to reduce inflationary pressure on the cryptocurrency and willcut the rewards in half for successfully mining a bitcoin block. this allegedly makes obtaining or mining new bitcoin much harder--has historically preceded bull runs.

    Personally I do indeed perceive a "halfing" is about to occur. In the not too distant future.


https://petergrandich.com/bit-con-take-2-and-many-of-the-crypto-nuts-cult-members-with-it/



I hope all currently holding bitcoin make a bundle (reminder, its always a good idea to take profits). Just like at the Bac table.



Continued Success,

Congrats to all with winning super bowl wagers.

That would not be I(I wasn't near a book so couldn't place any wagers). IF I could I would have and would have lost.
I liked SF -points at any spot below <=2.5. As we all know (3) is one of the magic point numbers to watch for when wagering football(based on the way fb is scored).

I actually perceived this was historically one of the better "value bets" for superbowls as the line surprisingly hovered around 2.0--2.5 in the two weeks leading up to kickoff. I would have guessed it would have begun the week at 3.0 or 3.5 thus creating numerous  "push" opportunities for the books.

I didn't watch the game but based on box scores and highlights it appears that it was a well played and tight game for the most part(a few unnecessary penalties for 49ers).

*As 8OR9 mentioned "before" the superbowl the chiefs DC Steve Spagnoula would play a vital part in the W. He most certainly did a great job. I saw a couple days ago he received a well-deserved extension/pay raise. Good for him.

** I also saw where 49ers DC steve wilkes was fired.



Congrats to all,

Hi albalaha.

I agree it could continue the upward trajectory. Though my research back before the ETF introduction was that it could hit <= 50,000 prior to <= 4/24. I also feel it could someday hit the ~~85,000 range prior to plummeting once again. I'm most certainly not suggesting it has any intrinsic value. I'm just suggesting it could indeed go much higher and people can indeed make money with it. IF their timing is right.

It's my opinion the artificial manipulation is very clear. Personally, I do not currently own Bitcoin, though I have recently purchased two installments($13.01,$11.50) of BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF), which moves in the opposite direction of Bitcoin futures. Its my opinion we will see significant decline in Bitcoin <= it hits 50,000. If I owned Bitcoin I certainly wouldn't leave my positions in an unprotected state as it could move (5%--15%) overnight or within a few days.

The hype schemes from early buyers and large BTC holders is reminiscent of other ponzi-type schemes such as the Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble. 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp


Some of the nonsensical headlines I saw this past week include:


Is Bitcoin the new gold? Cathie Wood and Fidelity

Investing in 'Gold'--Via Bitcoin--Is Cheaper Than Ever

Why Bitcoin won't reach $1,000,000 but you should buy anyway

Is Bitcoin the new digital gold




Continued Success,

Thx Asym.
I read all your posts re: grouping or clustering effects.

Can you respond a little more on your ABCD lines above. Sometimes I find it helpful to observe the clustering and run lengths as it helps me identify the "weak link" which in turn tells me the current strong side. The key in my opinion is early detection as just one or two spots earlier winning spots can often mean the difference in our "Win-In-A-Row" length (At least for me).


Continued Success,

Thx alrelax. Awesome pics/thx for taking the time to post. Did you take with your smart phone or other camera?

*I like to go deep sea fishing a lot and one of the most serene feelings is being out in the ocean so far one can't see land. Then watching as the sun starts setting/dropping below the horizon and distant water levels. It makes one realize we are such a tiny speck in the big scheme of things. 



Continued Success,