Thx Vic. Does one need to register on the rouletteideas.com site to see/download the above referenced info??

I've lurked over there some in the past/read many of yours/albalahas' posts. I find both of your roulette ideas very informative.



Continued Success,

Thx Asym


Do you think a "more" extreme presentation of outcomes is more probable to present in a 6-deck vs 8-deck shoe? Why or why not.



Thx in advance,

Deleted due to error,kfb

Hi Albalaha

Thx for post above.

Bitcon today 8/18 ~~25,800 w a weekly (r=25,800--30,500).

This is the kind of volatility I was speaking of recently in an above post. The "intrinsic" value of Bitcoin didn't change this much. Though a lot of people made a nice profit this past week wagering on the fluctuations within this band (r=25,800--30,500). The larger (and likely the early investors) made money while the smaller (& likely the recent investors) panicked and will sell out of their positions quicker. The larger investors will "rinse & repeat" this scenario regardless of if Bitcoin is at 20K or 60K.


Alb

"...BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with a whopping $10 trillion under management, has expressed its bullish stance on Bitcoin, highlighting the growing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies...."

I would too if I just applied for an ETF(on bitcoin).

This ETF is a game changer as this will permit large entities(largest/earliest investors and countries,..etc) to manipulate (Affect price with a much smaller investment) on Bitcoin.

*This is similar to the current manipulation of the Gold markets with the GLD ETF. Entities that want to make the U.S. Dollars appear stronger (To siphon from countries with a weak currency) can affect the price range for the actual metal. It is important to note that for every 1oz of Gold in possession right now there is approx 30X as much "paper" ownership. This can continue until a high% or large ownership requests physical delivery of their Gold.


I guess my reservation on all things Bitcoin is that we as owners of Bitcoin do not get royalties or a tiny % from each transaction (like banks /credit card processors). Plus, the majority of the main patent holders for all-things-blockchain, are owned by large banks and wealthy corp groups such as albalaha(Not to be confused with our forums' albalaha, .

albalaha has approximately 2298 blockchain patents. The majority of the others are owned by large financial institutions such as JP Morgan, Bank of America,...etc.


**I bought bitcoin the last time it was approx 20K, immediately used the volatility to make gold/silver purchases (More intrinsic value /less volatility). I will buy again when it drops to ~~14K USD, rinse & repeat. Though I do acknowledge it could reach the range of 60K--120K prior to my hypothesis of 14K.


Just my opinions.



Good investing to all,

Hi Albalaha

"...(Bitcoin)is scarcer than diamonds and big corporates whales are into it, so it is not going to finish anytime soon. A big rise in prices is expected around bitcoin halving. ..."

    I hope you are correct. I do agree w you and think it will increase significantly in the future( and will also tank at times). Though IMO these huge swings in volatility won't be due to a sudden change in value.

An example:

Tesla (TSLA) bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin in February 2021 (about 4,200 BTC), causing a flurry of excitement in the crypto space. The company's CEO, Elon Musk, tweeted "#bitcoin," a post that resulted in a 17% surge in the digital asset's price.


Who owns the most Bitcoin?

https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/who-owns-the-most-bitcoin.htm



Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy. That is certainly an extreme list of outcomes.

Asym above:

"...1) An entire shoe only forming singles and doubles (no 3 streaks at either side)..."

that's a crazy anomaly.
I've only seen one shoe in my life that failed to produce at least one same-side streak >=3 IAR.


"...3) An entire shoe not forming any single (but featuring very long B/P streaks).."
   
    I have never observed such a shoe. Nor do I recall ever hearing of such. You may have a Guinness Book world record on that one,  .



Continued Success,

Hi alrelax

Great cash extraction.

Your bac comrade:

"...Then she told me she had several chances left trying to build out $250 each time, nine times. She told me she was into the session with the money on the table she had for $4000.

She stacked all of her chips together and said out loud, "I got to chance it and if I win this, I got my money back and I'm up a little bit and I'll leave, if I lose I'm going to leave"...."

 that's crazy. Im glad it worked out well for her (& u). that's what is great about Bac is that one can have a subpar hit rate and then within 5 minutes and 2-3 consec wins suddenly have 10K or 5x buyin setting in front of you.

"...SIDE-NOTE:  Camaraderie is great IMO, of course camaraderie does not and will not change values of what is set to be presented.  However, in many cases camaraderie allows many bac players (including myself) to wager larger amounts, hype a winning section or group of hands and other things that allow us to win larger and additional hands that we might not have have been able to do otherwise. ..."


I agree that camaraderie can sometimes help us(or at least give us that extra nudge). I really like sharing the table with a couple veteran players that are serious/I know they study the game. Especially if I know them well enough so that we can discuss the current shoe/upcoming hand. "What are you thinking?", or "How strong do you feel?" , ...etc.


Congrats /thx for great trip report,

Hi AsymBacGuy. I like the way you phrase the following thoughts.


"...In fact, when the GP/AP tends to be low or very low, we have no reasons to chase a 'more likely course of action', we should consider that shoe as 'unplayable'. The same as bj players do when the count is negative.

To do that we have to employ simple distribution issues that have no guarantee of infallibility but increase our winning probability without falling too much into the negative outliers field."...


"...Therefore negative situations can't be compensated by long positive events unless the actual shoe belongs to the 'average' category...."


I find it helpful to recognize the "unplayable" shoes early. I often call them "erratic" as these are shoes that don't seem to present anything with consistency/ several different themes. In other words, I can't seem to get "in sync" with the current presentments/ or I'm getting in sync as that current series is ending, ...etc.
In these situations, I hold up and watch (or wait for the next shoe).


Continued Success,

Hi all. Enter your extreme shoes and sessions HERE. Thanks in advance,kfb


I'm always speaking with Bac players around the globe via WWW or sharing a table. We often discuss extreme shoes (played or heard about) as well as extreme sessions. Some we have witnessed firsthand and others we heard about from a Bac comrade, or we walked through a Bac pit and took a picture of a tote board.

I also like to chat with other players and with dealers and a common question I pose: What is the longest streak or craziest shoe you have ever dealt,...etc?

Since dealers often rotate through many different games (usually 20-30m each) they may not deal just Bac. However, I would guess they at least deal 2-4 bac games per shift multiplied by several years. So, most have observed alot of extreme shoes.

The most common response I receive re: longest same-side or opposite streak: 11-14ish. I found this a little surprising as I expected to hear reports with longer streaks.

Of course, we see many other streaks that are commonly ignored or seldom noted: 1-2,1-3,2-2 ,...etc.

My personal longest streak played (16 opps). I caught 13ish as best I recall. I've seen other non-traditional streaks such as a 15 in a row of 1-3:(BpppBppp) or 2-3,...etc. I've witnessed a couple shoes with 15-16 Ties.


I frequently have Bac comrades across USA market forward a pic of extreme streaks and I "think" a 25 P run and a 19B run have been the longest. These photos were taken in the morning after the previous night's tote board were still on display. So, who knows if real or not as I do know casinos can fake tote boards(At least they could at one time when the dealer entered each outcome manually).
I once observed a dealer enter three outcomes as he opened the table for the first session: BBB with a Dragon7. I was sitting behind his table at a vacant table sorting my scorecards. He then snickered /laughed with the pitboss. The pitboss just shook her head and walked away. In about 60seconds the table was full,lol.

*Recently I was discussing the above topic with a husband/wife dealer team that I have known for a couple decades. They have each dealt approximately 25-30 years.
The husband indicated their longest streak dealt was a 30P run.
The wife said a 28P run. The wife said it was a hi-limit room in Vegas and half the table busted their buyins(Some more than once), and the other half pressed to Tmax(10K) and collected to the end.

**I played recently with two players that indicated they played a shoe once that had 22 bonus bets wins (8deck shoe). They caught one bonus bet. This was a 5-Treasures Bac table that has numerous bonus bets. At one stage they said a long string of approx nine consecutive outcomes for P8/D7: p8,d7,p8,d7,...etc.


Thanks for reading and I look forward to your posts.

8/12/23  Bitcoin @ 29,406 with a recent 90-Day @ (r= 26,649--31,603).

Recently the Larry Fink(Yes that's his last name), CEO of Blackrock(largest asset mgmt company ~~9Trillion), announces they have filed for a Bitcoin ETF.

I find this concerning on two fronts.

1) Just a few years ago Fink said Bitcoin was a fraud and mainly for money laundering:

"...Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO:

2017: Bitcoin is an index of money laundering.

2023: Bitcoin could revolutionize finance. Files for a Bitcoin ETF...."

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/07/07/blackrock-ceo-larry-finks-turnabout-on-bitcoin-elicits-cheers-skepticism-from-crypto-insiders/

2)USA vs Grayscale . An ETF was denied and currently being heard in court proceedings.

"US court questions SEC's rejection of Grayscale's bitcoin fund proposal"

https://www.reuters.com/legal/court-set-hear-arguments-grayscales-lawsuit-against-sec-over-bitcoin-fund-2023-03-07/

So now we have a U.S. and Biden administrations ally Blackrock and Larry Fink wanting a Bitcoin ETF.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/23/blackrocks-game-changing-bitcoin-etf-what-every-in/


In my opinion going forward we will see Bitcon being pumped up further until the ETF is approved and then a steep decline. The large investors (including countries) profiting greatly and the small investors losing.
I am not an investing expert and have been incorrect in past on bitcons price. I see the near future as a "pump and dump" situation. Though it may go skyhigh and many will make money from the volatility. I simply do not see the intrinsic value in Bitcon and still say "caveat emptor"

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=88f90e881fbfd4c7JmltdHM9MTY5MTc5ODQwMCZpZ3VpZD0zZTdhMmIzZS03MThmLTY2MTItMzk2OS0zOTVmNzU4ZjY4MmEmaW5zaWQ9NTY0NA&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=3e7a2b3e-718f-6612-3969-395f758f682a&u=a1L2ltYWdlcy9zZWFyY2g_cT1iaXRjb24gbW91c2UgdHJhcCBwaG90byZGT1JNPUlRRlJCQSZpZD1CRDkxOTQ1RkQ0NDBFNjc5QTI4Q0NGMzNFOThBNUMxOUNBODNBQjc1&ntb=1

Good Investing To All,kfb

Hi AsymBacGuy. Perfectly worded.

...So we know that 'tricks' oriented to get the least number of hands played per shoe and a fair probability of success utilized will both enhance the overall winning process.

...More importantly, when the average betting frequency is quite low and the probability of success is greater than 50%, 'best scenario' shoes will surely happen by defined long term probabilities.
Now we have reasons to set up a positive progressive betting plan as sooner or later such scenario will happen.


...Of course, shorter is the positive streak we should aim for, higher will be our winning probability and lighter is the positive progression greater will be the probability to be ahead even if the winning streak fails at some point before the end of the shoe.

Great book/collectors' piece. I like Alan Dershowitz.

"...Nothing to beat the house ITLR...."

     I disagree.
Meaning win more $ than one loses. I believe one can even accomplish the above winning fewer decisions that losses. I see /play with several daily players that accomplish this more days than not. However, it typically isn't due to some wizardly bet selection methodology. Certainly not with a preplanned mechanical bet placement,...etc. . Mostly with money management and discipline (and most importantly handling losing sessions).

Nothing MECHANICAL to beat the house ITLR
     I agree to a certain extent. Almost impossible with a mechanical placement of wagers.

For one to beat the house ITLR the key is to choose a range of Variance and not try to win every extreme string of outcomes.  In other words what is doable within ones bankroll/buyin size/emotional stress tolerance. However, many players try to design a plan that wins every time and never loses. that's the nemesis of many players, IMO. Especially if one chooses a mechanical system.

"...There is no secret, magical, developed, mathematical or scientific protocol-formula or procedures for winning at any casino game that will guarantee wins each and every time you sit down by employing them.  Period! ..."

I concur.

Along the same line of thinking as what alrelax noted above. The following are the exact words from some of the advertisements from Bac system sellers, youtubers, book authors, ...etc.

*This System Is So Strong That Anyone Using It Can Turn $25 Into $50,000 in Just Two Days!

*It is Virtually Foolproof with a Simple Winning Formula That Rolls Over Every Version of Baccarat Offered Today!

*Want Proof?

In 10,760 Games Played by Real Players Just Like You Target Baccarat Won 100% of the Time.

*Imagine a system that was so good that you could wrap up a winning game every four bets!

*This system is so powerful that if you can risk even $25 you can win $50,000 in the next 18 hours.
I am so confident of your success that I will even send you the exact plan our players are using to win $50,000 every two days with my 100% Guarantee of Your Success!
If you are ready to win at least $1,000 an hour without leaving home in what has been called "the ultimate home-based business" I will show you how!



Right about here I started having my suspicions, lol.



My thoughts on the sellers /their promises: If it works so well why not go do every single day for 12-14 hours a day. Why take time to write a book, sell the book,  or sell the system to total strangers,..etc.

That would be analogous to discovering an expert method day trading in the stock market and then saying--"Nah I think I'll just keep my 8-5 for minimum wage. I don't want to make too much too fast,..etc". Then have to hassle with buying larger house(s), swapping out limousines,...etc.



Continued success,

Thx Asym for answering my question above in post#847. That makes sense.

Also, you mentioned: "...You can't do nothing when your B 5 point will succumb vs a 3 P point catching a 3 third card, or when your P 7 point will lose to a B 3 point drawing a 5 as third card.  ..."

My Q: Do you have any thoughts when B wins with one of its key favored hands: Drawing a two-card five/ choosing to not draw that third card, and getting the W.

    ?So do you view the remainder of the shoe as: There is now one less "two-card five scenario" available for B ?? 
"OR"  other viewpoints for the remainder of shoe re:  that "B two-card five scenario"


Thx in advance,kfb

Congratulations on the solid W.

"So I say, let's all name as many famous movie quotes and whom they are from within 5 minutes each without stalling and the winner, second and third runner up pays nothing for dinner and drinks.  The other two pay the entire bill.  We all agree."...
"...I got second place..."

Im always cautious when someone proposes a unique betting opportunity, LOL. I would have finished last in your "movie quotes" competition.


Continued Success,