Thx Asym for all the details /examples.

I like your utilization of 7 event cycles.


In your post #796 above.

as:

"...2- On the other end, the less likely event or series of events show the obvious general propensity to come out isolated, yet they are way more affected by volatility than the above 'clusters' propensity as in some way they must catch up the 'normal' clustering effect.
After having studied large live shoes datasets we have reached the conclusion that it's better to 'chase' clusters than hoping to get 'less likely' isolated situations.  ..."

re: clusters

    I find your concept above critical to ones long-term success. An addendum thought regarding all things cluster--I also find that after catching a couple wins from said cluster it is beneficial to not keep looking for the same exact cluster or "grouping" (in that shoe). The initial concept is still valid in the residual of that shoe. However, the residual of that shoe now possess one less of the Previously Caught Cluster.






Continue On My Friend,

As an addendum to Gizmotron post #4 above:

"We don't stop playing because we get old, we get old because we stop playing"
Doyle Brunson, RIP.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/golf/poker-icon-doyle-brunson-dies-at-89-years-old/ar-AA1bbr59?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=77fd04dfea1f4d3ea763ada19bf9d2bf&ei=11

7 Biggest Baccarat Legends--Scroll to the bottom for the link. Thanks for viewing.kfb

The following is an excerpt from #2 John Gates:

"...His wife, Dellora, wasn't thrilled about these marathon poker sessions. But John kept diamonds in his vest pocket and gave them to Dellora to calm her down and keep his poker games going.

Gates once wagered $70,000 on a horse race in England and won $600,000 dollars. The story was exaggerated to claim that he won $1 million, which only furthered his reputation as Mr. Bet-a-Million.

Yet another famous Gates gambling story is when he bet on which raindrops would fall the fastest on a window. He and an associate made wagers worth up to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the falling raindrops.   ..."



https://www.gamblingsites.net/blog/7-biggest-baccarat-legends/

The volatility at the Bac table is easier to navigate.

May 8,2023

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-05-08/Bitcoin-crashes-below-27-400-wiping-60-billion-from-the-crypto-market-cap.html

I could possibly consider playing online "Live" dealer Bac (Where we can view dealer cutting/dealing live.
Has anybody played Bac in this manner??? Thoughts/ Opinions ?? Thx in advance.


Live Casino Online - Best Live Dealer Casinos & Games May 2023

Thx for TR(session report). The bad along with the good.

"...Please Note:  My win was not what it should have been by any means.  Which were positive progressions with a minimum of parlayed amounts, if not greater. ..."



When I finish a shoe or a multi-shoe session and look back. I often find the reason I didn't win a net+ isn't always because of a subpar hit rate (guessed more wrong vs right). It was because I didn't win the amount I should have on the winning steaks, or winning shoes. It was that one or two key presses that missed and would have returned a significant profit vs Now Im drawn down even further.

As players we often beat ourselves up for the losing (or subpar) sessions and pat ourselves on the back for the winning sessions when both types of sessions boiled down to just one or two key decisions. A skilled player will win just slightly more than 50% of these key-decision hands (at least for me Im not out there consistently winning 25/30 consec decisions,...etc).

One more reason Im an advocate for a prospro. I'm losing less when I'm missing and significantly more when I guess that key-decision correct. Sometimes on my winning sessions I actually guessed more incorrect but won 3-4 consecutive presses that overwhelmed the subpar guess rate.
This bust or boom approach isn't for everyone, but I feel in the long run most would make a greater NET.

IMO the "bust" is only dangerous if one depends on the "boom"..


Thx again for the TR (& for always reporting the neg as well as the pos).


Continued Success,

Thanks Asym for your prompt response.

I like your way of thinking.

"...IMO a long term winning bac player should put the house to hope for something slight unlikely to happen and not vice versa..."


Continued Success,

Thx for the intel/ theories above in post #785. Several good applications.

Can you elaborate a little more on the following:

"...On the other end and despite a slight than average apparition, W clusters distribute more clustered than isolated (of course after having considered the 3:1 probability ratio)...."


Asym:

"...It's obvious that the game could be beatable by qualities and quantity qualities and not by mere quantities...."



tongue twister 

The following link shows historical/recent Nevada Gaming Revenue (by game). I was a little surprised at the low Win% of (~~5-6%) for Slots and Sportsbook vs Table Games (~~12--20%).



https://gaming.library.unlv.edu/reports/longterm_nvgaming_OAR.pdf


Additional info at same link above. Click on Home and All Reports. Then scroll down as several other reports I found interesting.



Citation:
Nevada Gaming Revenues: Long-Term Trends. Las Vegas: Center for Gaming Research,
University Libraries, University of Nevada Las Vegas, 2023

I copied the chart from this link and highlighted Roulette  and Baccarat
*Note the first line in the chart below is the average hold %.

Q: Any thoughts on why Roulette average hold is approximately 150% of Bac??


The following table shows the average, maximum, and minimum monthly hold percentages for the
period January 2004 through January 2023 for four table games:

MONTHLY STATEWIDE HOLD PERCENTAGES, 2004-2023
Category 21 Craps Roulette Baccarat
Average 12.60 14.08 18.88 12.44
High 18.12 20.23 25.70 21.99
Low 8.23 8.03 9.17 2.91
Variance 9.89 12.20 16.53 19.08
Std Dev 1.69 2.13 3.16 3.11
Exp Low 10.91 11.95 15.71 9.33
Exp High 14.29 16.21 22.04 15.56

Any monthly result that deviates significantly from these averages will impact monthly gaming
revenues in a way that may distort the true level of play.

As can be seen by the ranges of variation, Twenty-One, even though it has the highest level of skill
out of any of the four games studied here, had the smallest variance, while roulette had the greatest



Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx for comment above in post #1.


What's your opinion?

I agree with your reason above as contributing to higher hold for casino:  Betting huge after losing and conservatively while winning.

Also, we will for the most part win our personal average win-streak-length with little correlation to the amount of said wager size. If anything its my opinion we will actually have a slightly higher strike rate (slightly higher strike % and higher streak length) as a function of wager size(Meaning the higher the wager climbs the more selective we are). Just my opinion. I know Im more selective with a $2000 wager vs a $200 wager.

What I'm suggesting is it doesn't matter if we are wagering a flat bet, small bet, big bet, negpro, or pospro,...etc,  we will each still approach an average hit % ratio and streak length regardless of if one is wagering table min or table max or anything in between.

Thus, my advocacy for a Pos progression. In other words, if I'm fortunate enough to put a consecutive hit streak together of say four in a row--then I want to win more than four base units. Then I can implement a MMM to increase MY Hold.

The key is to know ones own average hit rate % and average streak length per the number of wagers in our buyin.

re: asyms comments above on casinos high Hold rate.

I suspect many players get ahead first at least 10%--30% , maybe more, yet will bust (losing 110--130% of original buyin). I see some players get ahead >100% of buyin and lose to -0- with zero retention of their initial winnings.
Many players have no intention of winning >100% of buyin(BI) in a session when they initially buy in. I'm not against adding many small winning sessions totaling more than buyin if that is ones MO. However, in my opinion its easier to win an amount >=buyin (or even 50-70% of BI) by wagering larger bets(However one chooses to get them up to a larger level).

More later,

Note the third page down in the following link. I like to compare the casino Hold on various games.

NEVADA TABLE GAMES: HISTORICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE VARIATIONS


-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Many thanks to the following for sharing their research.

Citation:

Nevada Table Games: Historical Hold Variations. Las Vegas: Center for Gaming Research,
University Libraries, University of Nevada Las Vegas, 2023.

With A 1.15% H.E. Why Is Casino Hold  @ Baccarat ~~ 13%--25% Most Months??

Bac Hold %

Hi XXVV
Your paragraph above: "...A better strategy is to access substantial funds ( work or smart investments) and then utilise only 'free' money with which to play and gamble. That is the horse before the cart, and relief from a universe of sorrow and tears.

A $1000 investment in an appreciating smart stable coin with associated bank and credit line could return more than $100,000 within 2-3 years.

A $1000 roulette bank is lucky to survive a week in a casino...."

This makes my mind drift back to the wise words of my grrreeeaaattt Uncle Confucius:

"Grasshopper, friends don't let friends play roulette."




Continued Success,

Hi albalaha

Hope you're doing well.

re: "...Those who were skeptic of its growth have missed almost 90% growth when it was at $16,600 levels at 31st December 2022. It was near $20k in Ju.."


That would be me. I bought a small nonmeaningful amount of crypto (including Bitcoin) when Bitcoin had dropped from $60K+ down to the 20K level. IMO and based on my research/statistical analysis I projected Bitcoin would have difficulty getting past the 27K--28 range and actually thought it would stall there, retreat, then go higher than 28K in latter 2023 or 24.

I still think it is being artificially manipulated by a few large investors and we will see a pullback (much sooner than many think), mostly due to these larger investors. Not because its true value is fluctuating.
IMO these larger investors find it easier to make larger returns/quicker returns when its dropping or bouncing in a narrow range they have predetermined(See the large transactions when bouncing @ 16.5k--18k).

So my thinking is after several bounces cycles only then will we see it powering higher. I still do not like the valuation metrics for Bitcoin or any crypto. However, that doesn't mean it can't or won't go higher--or--that I may simply be wrong.
My next buy will be when it regresses to the 14K levels.


Alb, I hope you are correct/ good luck with it.


Continued Success,