8OR9: "...The most important person in the Super Bowl is not a player but Stephen Christopher Spagnuolo, who is the KC Defensive Coach and was responsible for shutting down the Baltimore Ravens.

If he can shut down the SF offence, KC is the winner..."


Good observation 8OR9. A couple days ago the sports handicapping GOAT "Billy Walters" did an interview at the Superbowl festivities and suggested the same thing. He noted that was one of KC main strengths. He thought the 49ers defensive coach Steve Wilkes was, in his words, "mediocre at best". He also gave an edge to KC qb Pat Mahomes because he previously played in Superbowls vs SF qb Brock "The Glock" Purdy.

*I am also a little suspicious that Billy Walters would openly state his picks so maybe he has other motives. In my opinion a gambler (i.e., Investor) is a gambler 24-7.
BW liked KC at +2 and moneyline is now moving to ~~ 110--115 and I saw a couple books actually moved the line down to KC =+1.5 this morning. B. Walters suggested he may buy some points to move it @ +3, and take KC and the points.

Im still going with "The Glock",  @ -1.5


Wishing everyone a winning ticket.

I like the 49ers. I don't watch NFL football, however, I do like the SF qb Brock Purdy.

The current (2/3/24) consensus favorite from major books has SF @ -2, and -110 on the moneyline. One book is offering SF at -2, -105. So I would definitely take the moneyline bet @ 105 since anything less than 130 on the moneyline makes the moneyline a superior bet(better value bet) vs the (-2). Of course Im banking on "Big Clock" Brock having a great game.


I agree coach Andy Reid is a wise old veteran coach with decades of experience. So I'm hesitant to go against him. Same as for the KC qb Mahomes as he too has been here before. When in doubt I tend to go with the older more experienced guy(same as in gaming). Old veteran players just know a few more "tricks-to-the-trade".

It should be a good game.


PS
For anyone that likes the underdog(KC) with the spread at (2) the key metric for the money line is +108. So anything better than 108 makes the moneyline bet a slightly better value  VS (-2) points. Meaning if you are getting 2 points, that's the moneyline equivalent of taking no points and getting $108 for a $100 bet.
It is currently at 110 at most books with one book offering 115.



Best of luck to all,

Thx AD. Nice pic of the planes(and the bike too).
Good background info on the Thunderbird display.
I've never been to Mn or South Dakota, USA (though I have watched every episode of the Fargo tv series, lol). I like the accent from that area of the country.

Re: What else besides Baccarat ?
I too play Roulette some (or at least in past couple years). Many of my cas only have one Bac table or if they have >=2 tables they usually don't open them until afternoon. So, I kill time by playing roulette. Though I do play it seriously and to make money.





Continued Success,

Hi Asym. How are the tables treating you.

Above u say: "...  longer streaks (say 5-5+) tend to dispose themselves by three different shapes:

a) Singularly interspersed between lower degree patterns (singles/doubles/triples and 4s)

b) Diluted or not showing up at all

c) Clustered (back to back) at various levels of consecutiveness and density.

Each shape of presentation has its merits with important practical reflexes.

Shape a) is the more likely course of presentation and could be applied at lower streak levels (4s or 3s).
Actually a (risky and unnecessary) multilayered progressive plan adopted to get 5s, 4s or 3s showing up as 'isolated' cannot be wrong for long as the isolated/clustered streak ratio tends to produce low sd values...."

Q1 In the BOLD you are saying the optimum method to catch a >=5IAR streak(e.g., ppppp or bbbbb) is to watch for them to be positioned in a cluster of 3iar/4iar streaks(e.g. ppp bbbb ppppp)
Yes No ??

Q2 If you were assigned the task to win 5 bets in a row would it not be easier to try and catch say two wins from a 3iar streak and maybe three more wins from a 4iar streak(Since 3iar and 4iar are indeed in most shoes)

Yes no other??


Thx in advance,

AsymBacGuy at the bottom of post #963: "...Now you might wonder why some "uninterested" players will patiently wait then betting 10k-20k after a couple of consecutive 1s came out in order to get any number different than 1..
.."


Like

alrelax:"...KFB,  That cash extraction was NOT from that shoe with the 6 F7s.  It was from 2 other shoes in one session...."

Ok thx/a big congrats on the massive cash extraction. Im confident, since you already converted the chips to cash, that you made it home with most of W $.

I have a good friend that recently won just over $20K mostly on one single run in a shoe(A big win for him is typically1k--3k on a 2k--3K BI). He actually colored up, booked an early flight home, and "got the heck outa dodge" as they say in the USA.
(An old western movie series: Gunsmoke, was based on 1860s frontier life in Dodge City,Kansas,USA). Dodge City was a rough, cattle driving destination, gun slinging, gambling town.
Thus the old phrase: Get the heck out of town, and FAST. I often play very near this town in Wichita, KS.



Continued Success,

I agree 8OR9. Today 1/15/24 Bitcoin is down to 42,600 from a few days ago at 46,900. However, it could just as easily be at 35k or 48k by the time you read this. IMO much of recent runup was due to likelihood for all the ETFs being approved. I think it was already baked into the price, thus, this mild drawback was somewhat expected. Its my opinion if one understands the volatility in Bitcoin(much like day trading and gambling), then one can still make money.

Its my belief that gambling in low SD games such as Bac, Pai Gow, Sic Bo,...etc is actually better. Due mainly that HE is easily known, small variance, and can't be changed nor can the dealer charge us more to place our bet(like our broker or broker co). Plus some of our bets(investments) will put the HE in our favor.

If I go to my broker and say I want to invest 100K. The broker immediately takes a fee of 2.75%(Great I now only have 97,250 invested. THEN, if the stock investment does well they will extract an additional >=3-7.5%. Plus any new investment contributed will also get charged this initial 2.75% fee.

This is why it is so important that we not play at casinos that charge an Ante "up front" win or lose. Casinos in Missouri actually charge a vig up front(W or L) on some games that can increase HE from ~~3% to almost 6%. don't Do That.



Bitcoin is so volatile and hard to value that it's closer to a lottery ticket than an investment, top economist David Rosenberg says

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-btc-crypto-sec-etf-david-rosenberg-gambling-investing-portfolio-2024-1


Continued Success,

Hi alrelax
Is that cash extraction from the recent tote board post: 6 Fortune 7s and 39 B-30 P??

"...FINAL THOUGHTS:  1) To myself, success is being able to win greater amounts monthly than I lose.  2) Being able to maintain my true passion and purpose when I play. 3) Maintaining my bankroll with occasional increases from wins.  4) Using my win money (cashed out win) for other things than gambling.  5) And most importantly, accepting both mistakes and losses with a Baccarat Masters frame-of-mind and attempt to learn from those...."

    Like many things in life one can only learn by doing. We can run sims, watch youtube videos, read books, read on forum, ...etc and that indeed is likely to help. However, the "tricks-to-the-trade" will only be discovered by doing(losing and winning). Most all "tricks-to-the-trade" will boil down to money management of wins, self control, and managing our emotions.

In my opinion most males shouldn't be allowed to gamble until they are >=30--35. 
Though I do frequently share a bac table with a professional poker player that is about 28. He has a master's in accounting /is very mature. Plus both his father / grandfather made their living for decades from the poker room.



Continued Success, 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Approved by SEC, Cleared To Start Trading Thursday1/11/24


I agree Albalaha. Bitcoin will continue with its volatility (Though intrinsic value won't necessarily change in either direction). However, one can still make alot of money investing in bitcoin et al cryptos.
I purchased a very small stake in the Short Bitcoin (BITI) awhile back. I may try to purchase some of Blackrocks' Bitcoin ETF immediately after it opens just to be able to play it both ways(at least once or in the short term). This ETF market will be like the crack cocaine of investing.

IMO it will allow the very early and the very large Bitcoin owners to leverage the market at a fraction of the cost. Huge swings in the years ahead/ they will scalp the small investor.

*A really good read is the book : The Big Short by M. Lewis. This book depicts what happened in the 2008 market collapse in the USA. It sheds light on what the financial markets, hedge fund mgrs, banks, brokers,...etc can  "legally" do and get away with it.

IMO this Bitcoin market will unravel in a similar fashion down the road. Be prepared my friends and wishing you all the best of luck.



The SEC has approved 11 bitcoin type ETFs today and will start trading tomorrow.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/spot-bitcoin-etfs-are-approved-by-sec-cleared-to-start-trading-thursday/ar-AA1mLSGT

Thx Asym for post #956 above. Alot of good intel/appreciate u taking the time to share.




Continued Success,

How Many Cryptocurrencies Are There?

Key passages from the following link at the very bottom:


*There are more than 23,000 cryptocurrencies, according to CoinMarketCap. That's a far cry from a decade ago, when there were just seven.

However, that astonishing growth rate isn't entirely good news. Many new cryptocurrencies have little purpose other than making money for their developers.


**Why are there so many different cryptocurrencies?
The biggest reason there are so many different cryptocurrencies is that there's practically no barrier to entry. Anyone who wants to create a cryptocurrency can do it. Even if you have zero technical know-how, you could hire someone on Fiverr (FVRR 1.36%), say, to make a cryptocurrency for less than $20.


    I actually had a passing thought about creating my own crypto: BacBit. 
A group of professional bac players could all pool verifiable/liquidable assets of say 100K each (Gold bars, cash, land, stock shares,real estate,...etc). BacBit would be formed with verifiable assets(Great sales pitch).
They (Bacbit owners) could draw on it for front money at a casino and every profitable session or day they would contribute 2.5% of wins back to BacBit(Net proceeds paid out once a year back to BacBit owners). Of course the first goal after each winning session would be to buy our own shares back so our share price would constantly be on the rise.

Of course our real profits would be from getting other (outsiders) to buy our stock (because it had increasingly increased since inception). We would then offer small rewards(small % of another BacBit coin) for the early investors to then recruit other "new" investors. Therefore, we would need to hire a PR firm to constantly talk about how successful the  bac players at BacBit were because we never lost,...etc. We would be fine as long as "ALL" investors never wanted to redeem their stocks at once.

This is how I perceive many of the earlier cryptos were formed---just a group of friends setting around kicking ideas around. It is almost comical when I read how many of the meme/altcoins were formed and how they immediately had millions of dollars being invested in a Non verifiable Ponzi-like crypto coin.





https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/financials/cryptocurrency-stocks/how-many-cryptocurrencies-are-there/

5 Myths about crypto

AsymBacGuy reply to my post above:

"...KFB wrote:

I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card).

I find particularly interesting this passage, can you elaborate a bit?
  ..."

I was just making a general comment on how the casino benefits from offering more /more bonus bets as these hedges weaken our placement of an EV+ wager. Especially when we can't win all bets on a single outcome but the casino can. I commonly see players wager all of three or four bonus bets along with a Tie, and then at the last second toss out a wager on a Side bet(P or B). IMO there are more optimum methods to win consistently(& most certainly wagers with a lower SD).

Re: Ties--I see a lot of players constantly wager a side wager(P or B) along with the Tie(which pays 8:1 in my casino markets). So a Tie bettor is not only wagering on a lesser quality bet but also hedging the side bet(We can't win both).

Re:Tie bet--Its certainly countable, however, at an 8:1 payout my opinion is that one would find more value counting another bonus wager such as Panda8 or Dragon7,...etc. If you are fortunate enough to play in a market that offers 9:1 on Tie bet then I would be a little more interested in Tie wagers.

"IF" I was going to put forth alot of effort counting Ties(@ 9:1) I would just make that my main wager(only wager if possible). Yet again the casinos(most) require one to also place a side wager(P or B) for the opportunity to wager a T, or any bonus wager. Most cas don't allow capping your neighbor's wager (At least in my market the capping is not allowed).


My earlier thought in above post: "I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card). ..."

None of my casinos offer such a wager/ I haven't seen anywhere in USA. Possibly offered in other countries or @ online casinos. However, if they did offer such a layout it would be very countable(& potentially lucrative) wager. Depending on the payout I would likely focus on the Low Tie.

Re: Tie Bettors.
I have encountered only one single player that uses the Tie bet as his bread/butter approach. He tracks/counts a few things. He hasn't given me the "secret ingredient" to his recipe (Nor have I asked). However, I'm guessing he tracks face cards and maybe even numbers too(0,2,4,..etc), and waits for a certain threshold count# is hit before wagering. Only wagering when the count is EV+ ,...etc.
When I play with him, I do allot a few wagers from my buyin to wager a T when and if he likes the setup(Often in the latter stages of the shoe), and typically only <=2-4 times per shoe.

*Note I have never pursued or researched or studied Tie wagers much so maybe something out there with the T bet that I do not know.



Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9, good links.

Even if one isn't involved with cryptos or crypto sites I encourage all to have an advanced cyber security company monitoring your home internet/ cell phone (A company that will actually see the perpetrators get prosecuted/ not just block the attack).

The following link re: crypto scams is a good read.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2022/12/28/over-3-billion-stolen-in-crypto-heists-here-are-the-eight-biggest/?sh=14995c07699f

AsymBacGuy in post 942:

"...At baccarat things are more restrained than what math dictates as each shoe is a world apart and deeply dependent to the actual card distribution.

Is this a "too general" statement to get a possible advantage from?

Bighorn.sh.it.

Anyone knowing the Smoluchowski's 'probability after effects' concept (not mentioning other statistical tools improving such idea) understands that an event or two (or more) events present sd values way lower than binomial independent models,..."


The key words (Restrained, Dependent) in your above statement are where a lot of players(and mathematicians) tend to have a difference of opinion.
I like to think of it as outcomes (i.e., event streaks) approach limits and these restrictive limits is why one outcome (say a total of 9) will not show 15 consecutive times for one side(P or B),  or why we never hear of P (or B) winning 40 consecutive times...etc.
I know this is an extreme example but IMO every single event outcome is never absolutely 100% independent (in card games such as bac).


Continued Success,