Congrats to all with winning super bowl wagers.

That would not be I(I wasn't near a book so couldn't place any wagers). IF I could I would have and would have lost.
I liked SF -points at any spot below <=2.5. As we all know (3) is one of the magic point numbers to watch for when wagering football(based on the way fb is scored).

I actually perceived this was historically one of the better "value bets" for superbowls as the line surprisingly hovered around 2.0--2.5 in the two weeks leading up to kickoff. I would have guessed it would have begun the week at 3.0 or 3.5 thus creating numerous  "push" opportunities for the books.

I didn't watch the game but based on box scores and highlights it appears that it was a well played and tight game for the most part(a few unnecessary penalties for 49ers).

*As 8OR9 mentioned "before" the superbowl the chiefs DC Steve Spagnoula would play a vital part in the W. He most certainly did a great job. I saw a couple days ago he received a well-deserved extension/pay raise. Good for him.

** I also saw where 49ers DC steve wilkes was fired.



Congrats to all,

Hi albalaha.

I agree it could continue the upward trajectory. Though my research back before the ETF introduction was that it could hit <= 50,000 prior to <= 4/24. I also feel it could someday hit the ~~85,000 range prior to plummeting once again. I'm most certainly not suggesting it has any intrinsic value. I'm just suggesting it could indeed go much higher and people can indeed make money with it. IF their timing is right.

It's my opinion the artificial manipulation is very clear. Personally, I do not currently own Bitcoin, though I have recently purchased two installments($13.01,$11.50) of BITI (Proshare Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF), which moves in the opposite direction of Bitcoin futures. Its my opinion we will see significant decline in Bitcoin <= it hits 50,000. If I owned Bitcoin I certainly wouldn't leave my positions in an unprotected state as it could move (5%--15%) overnight or within a few days.

The hype schemes from early buyers and large BTC holders is reminiscent of other ponzi-type schemes such as the Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble. 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp


Some of the nonsensical headlines I saw this past week include:


Is Bitcoin the new gold? Cathie Wood and Fidelity

Investing in 'Gold'--Via Bitcoin--Is Cheaper Than Ever

Why Bitcoin won't reach $1,000,000 but you should buy anyway

Is Bitcoin the new digital gold




Continued Success,

Thx Asym.
I read all your posts re: grouping or clustering effects.

Can you respond a little more on your ABCD lines above. Sometimes I find it helpful to observe the clustering and run lengths as it helps me identify the "weak link" which in turn tells me the current strong side. The key in my opinion is early detection as just one or two spots earlier winning spots can often mean the difference in our "Win-In-A-Row" length (At least for me).


Continued Success,

Thx alrelax. Awesome pics/thx for taking the time to post. Did you take with your smart phone or other camera?

*I like to go deep sea fishing a lot and one of the most serene feelings is being out in the ocean so far one can't see land. Then watching as the sun starts setting/dropping below the horizon and distant water levels. It makes one realize we are such a tiny speck in the big scheme of things. 



Continued Success,

8OR9: "...The most important person in the Super Bowl is not a player but Stephen Christopher Spagnuolo, who is the KC Defensive Coach and was responsible for shutting down the Baltimore Ravens.

If he can shut down the SF offence, KC is the winner..."


Good observation 8OR9. A couple days ago the sports handicapping GOAT "Billy Walters" did an interview at the Superbowl festivities and suggested the same thing. He noted that was one of KC main strengths. He thought the 49ers defensive coach Steve Wilkes was, in his words, "mediocre at best". He also gave an edge to KC qb Pat Mahomes because he previously played in Superbowls vs SF qb Brock "The Glock" Purdy.

*I am also a little suspicious that Billy Walters would openly state his picks so maybe he has other motives. In my opinion a gambler (i.e., Investor) is a gambler 24-7.
BW liked KC at +2 and moneyline is now moving to ~~ 110--115 and I saw a couple books actually moved the line down to KC =+1.5 this morning. B. Walters suggested he may buy some points to move it @ +3, and take KC and the points.

Im still going with "The Glock",  @ -1.5


Wishing everyone a winning ticket.

I like the 49ers. I don't watch NFL football, however, I do like the SF qb Brock Purdy.

The current (2/3/24) consensus favorite from major books has SF @ -2, and -110 on the moneyline. One book is offering SF at -2, -105. So I would definitely take the moneyline bet @ 105 since anything less than 130 on the moneyline makes the moneyline a superior bet(better value bet) vs the (-2). Of course Im banking on "Big Clock" Brock having a great game.


I agree coach Andy Reid is a wise old veteran coach with decades of experience. So I'm hesitant to go against him. Same as for the KC qb Mahomes as he too has been here before. When in doubt I tend to go with the older more experienced guy(same as in gaming). Old veteran players just know a few more "tricks-to-the-trade".

It should be a good game.


PS
For anyone that likes the underdog(KC) with the spread at (2) the key metric for the money line is +108. So anything better than 108 makes the moneyline bet a slightly better value  VS (-2) points. Meaning if you are getting 2 points, that's the moneyline equivalent of taking no points and getting $108 for a $100 bet.
It is currently at 110 at most books with one book offering 115.



Best of luck to all,

Thx AD. Nice pic of the planes(and the bike too).
Good background info on the Thunderbird display.
I've never been to Mn or South Dakota, USA (though I have watched every episode of the Fargo tv series, lol). I like the accent from that area of the country.

Re: What else besides Baccarat ?
I too play Roulette some (or at least in past couple years). Many of my cas only have one Bac table or if they have >=2 tables they usually don't open them until afternoon. So, I kill time by playing roulette. Though I do play it seriously and to make money.





Continued Success,

Hi Asym. How are the tables treating you.

Above u say: "...  longer streaks (say 5-5+) tend to dispose themselves by three different shapes:

a) Singularly interspersed between lower degree patterns (singles/doubles/triples and 4s)

b) Diluted or not showing up at all

c) Clustered (back to back) at various levels of consecutiveness and density.

Each shape of presentation has its merits with important practical reflexes.

Shape a) is the more likely course of presentation and could be applied at lower streak levels (4s or 3s).
Actually a (risky and unnecessary) multilayered progressive plan adopted to get 5s, 4s or 3s showing up as 'isolated' cannot be wrong for long as the isolated/clustered streak ratio tends to produce low sd values...."

Q1 In the BOLD you are saying the optimum method to catch a >=5IAR streak(e.g., ppppp or bbbbb) is to watch for them to be positioned in a cluster of 3iar/4iar streaks(e.g. ppp bbbb ppppp)
Yes No ??

Q2 If you were assigned the task to win 5 bets in a row would it not be easier to try and catch say two wins from a 3iar streak and maybe three more wins from a 4iar streak(Since 3iar and 4iar are indeed in most shoes)

Yes no other??


Thx in advance,

AsymBacGuy at the bottom of post #963: "...Now you might wonder why some "uninterested" players will patiently wait then betting 10k-20k after a couple of consecutive 1s came out in order to get any number different than 1..
.."


Like

alrelax:"...KFB,  That cash extraction was NOT from that shoe with the 6 F7s.  It was from 2 other shoes in one session...."

Ok thx/a big congrats on the massive cash extraction. Im confident, since you already converted the chips to cash, that you made it home with most of W $.

I have a good friend that recently won just over $20K mostly on one single run in a shoe(A big win for him is typically1k--3k on a 2k--3K BI). He actually colored up, booked an early flight home, and "got the heck outa dodge" as they say in the USA.
(An old western movie series: Gunsmoke, was based on 1860s frontier life in Dodge City,Kansas,USA). Dodge City was a rough, cattle driving destination, gun slinging, gambling town.
Thus the old phrase: Get the heck out of town, and FAST. I often play very near this town in Wichita, KS.



Continued Success,

I agree 8OR9. Today 1/15/24 Bitcoin is down to 42,600 from a few days ago at 46,900. However, it could just as easily be at 35k or 48k by the time you read this. IMO much of recent runup was due to likelihood for all the ETFs being approved. I think it was already baked into the price, thus, this mild drawback was somewhat expected. Its my opinion if one understands the volatility in Bitcoin(much like day trading and gambling), then one can still make money.

Its my belief that gambling in low SD games such as Bac, Pai Gow, Sic Bo,...etc is actually better. Due mainly that HE is easily known, small variance, and can't be changed nor can the dealer charge us more to place our bet(like our broker or broker co). Plus some of our bets(investments) will put the HE in our favor.

If I go to my broker and say I want to invest 100K. The broker immediately takes a fee of 2.75%(Great I now only have 97,250 invested. THEN, if the stock investment does well they will extract an additional >=3-7.5%. Plus any new investment contributed will also get charged this initial 2.75% fee.

This is why it is so important that we not play at casinos that charge an Ante "up front" win or lose. Casinos in Missouri actually charge a vig up front(W or L) on some games that can increase HE from ~~3% to almost 6%. don't Do That.



Bitcoin is so volatile and hard to value that it's closer to a lottery ticket than an investment, top economist David Rosenberg says

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-btc-crypto-sec-etf-david-rosenberg-gambling-investing-portfolio-2024-1


Continued Success,

Hi alrelax
Is that cash extraction from the recent tote board post: 6 Fortune 7s and 39 B-30 P??

"...FINAL THOUGHTS:  1) To myself, success is being able to win greater amounts monthly than I lose.  2) Being able to maintain my true passion and purpose when I play. 3) Maintaining my bankroll with occasional increases from wins.  4) Using my win money (cashed out win) for other things than gambling.  5) And most importantly, accepting both mistakes and losses with a Baccarat Masters frame-of-mind and attempt to learn from those...."

    Like many things in life one can only learn by doing. We can run sims, watch youtube videos, read books, read on forum, ...etc and that indeed is likely to help. However, the "tricks-to-the-trade" will only be discovered by doing(losing and winning). Most all "tricks-to-the-trade" will boil down to money management of wins, self control, and managing our emotions.

In my opinion most males shouldn't be allowed to gamble until they are >=30--35. 
Though I do frequently share a bac table with a professional poker player that is about 28. He has a master's in accounting /is very mature. Plus both his father / grandfather made their living for decades from the poker room.



Continued Success, 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Approved by SEC, Cleared To Start Trading Thursday1/11/24


I agree Albalaha. Bitcoin will continue with its volatility (Though intrinsic value won't necessarily change in either direction). However, one can still make alot of money investing in bitcoin et al cryptos.
I purchased a very small stake in the Short Bitcoin (BITI) awhile back. I may try to purchase some of Blackrocks' Bitcoin ETF immediately after it opens just to be able to play it both ways(at least once or in the short term). This ETF market will be like the crack cocaine of investing.

IMO it will allow the very early and the very large Bitcoin owners to leverage the market at a fraction of the cost. Huge swings in the years ahead/ they will scalp the small investor.

*A really good read is the book : The Big Short by M. Lewis. This book depicts what happened in the 2008 market collapse in the USA. It sheds light on what the financial markets, hedge fund mgrs, banks, brokers,...etc can  "legally" do and get away with it.

IMO this Bitcoin market will unravel in a similar fashion down the road. Be prepared my friends and wishing you all the best of luck.



The SEC has approved 11 bitcoin type ETFs today and will start trading tomorrow.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/spot-bitcoin-etfs-are-approved-by-sec-cleared-to-start-trading-thursday/ar-AA1mLSGT

Thx Asym for post #956 above. Alot of good intel/appreciate u taking the time to share.




Continued Success,

How Many Cryptocurrencies Are There?

Key passages from the following link at the very bottom:


*There are more than 23,000 cryptocurrencies, according to CoinMarketCap. That's a far cry from a decade ago, when there were just seven.

However, that astonishing growth rate isn't entirely good news. Many new cryptocurrencies have little purpose other than making money for their developers.


**Why are there so many different cryptocurrencies?
The biggest reason there are so many different cryptocurrencies is that there's practically no barrier to entry. Anyone who wants to create a cryptocurrency can do it. Even if you have zero technical know-how, you could hire someone on Fiverr (FVRR 1.36%), say, to make a cryptocurrency for less than $20.


    I actually had a passing thought about creating my own crypto: BacBit. 
A group of professional bac players could all pool verifiable/liquidable assets of say 100K each (Gold bars, cash, land, stock shares,real estate,...etc). BacBit would be formed with verifiable assets(Great sales pitch).
They (Bacbit owners) could draw on it for front money at a casino and every profitable session or day they would contribute 2.5% of wins back to BacBit(Net proceeds paid out once a year back to BacBit owners). Of course the first goal after each winning session would be to buy our own shares back so our share price would constantly be on the rise.

Of course our real profits would be from getting other (outsiders) to buy our stock (because it had increasingly increased since inception). We would then offer small rewards(small % of another BacBit coin) for the early investors to then recruit other "new" investors. Therefore, we would need to hire a PR firm to constantly talk about how successful the  bac players at BacBit were because we never lost,...etc. We would be fine as long as "ALL" investors never wanted to redeem their stocks at once.

This is how I perceive many of the earlier cryptos were formed---just a group of friends setting around kicking ideas around. It is almost comical when I read how many of the meme/altcoins were formed and how they immediately had millions of dollars being invested in a Non verifiable Ponzi-like crypto coin.





https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/financials/cryptocurrency-stocks/how-many-cryptocurrencies-are-there/