Thx 8OR9. Interesting.
Another crypto story today (11/2/23) with link posted below. Sam BankmansFried was convicted today and faces up to 110 years total. My prediction is that he won't even receive 1/2 of the total time. He will likely get pardoned in a few years by an outgoing president.

Sam bankmans fried


Continued Success,

Alrelax in the initial post on this thread:

"...Sit down and seriously measure yourself against your wins, losses and the decisions you made with the reasons you did. Interpretation of your experience is what will clearly give you real advantage with your decision making process in the game of baccarat.  ..."

    I think our brain is constantly /effortlessly calculating risk. Same as when we our wagering Bac as when we are driving a car. Our brain is constantly assessing other drivers perceived skill (or lack of), road conditions, speed,...etc.

The great thing about our risk calculation at Bac is that we also have the Laws of Probability hovering above each shoe to help guide us as well as history of that shoe, card removal,..etc.

Personally, I find my risk calculation at the bac table is more accurate when I drive a little slower/I wait for a junction in the highway where the Laws of Probability are also intersecting with shoe history, current trends, knowledge of what game wants to produce, what THIS shoe is producing,...etc.
I find it safer to not speed too much for too long.

More later and have a great day. Im getting on the road /headed to the office(cas).

Cheers,

I agree albalaha in that cryptos may be a positive investment going forward. However, I think many of the current cryptos will cease to exist ten years from now (if not sooner). I am monitoring a few and continue to like what I see from one you mentioned awhile back: XNO (Nano). In part due to its "relatively" low volatility in recent months.

I'm continuing to monitor the Blackrock application for a Bitcoin ETF as I think investing in it at the very beginning (immediately after its approval). Mainly to give one an opportunity to Short has some potential leveraging options going forward.

Bitcoin gives up gains after BlackRock denies ETF approval report


Continued Success,

Hi all,

I really like AsymBacGuys' post #901 above. Alot of nuggets/worthy of repeated views from time to time.

In Ayms post #904 above:

"...On the other end, severely clustered enemies might be a sign of those "deviated" shoes giving us some or a lot of trouble and normally such shoes will more probably belong to the "unrandom category".
For example, when sharp enemy clusters happen at the start of the shoe or in the first 1/3 of the shoe, we might think that the E/F final ratio will be surpassed beyond the normal values.  ..."


    I concur with my own play. I find really easy Net+ win shoes often start positive and have only minimal, if any drawdowns. Also, my really bad shoes where I finish Net- often start with subpar hit rate (Even if I recover or partially recover) and often my hit rate doesn't improve much in that shoe.

One thing that I perceive helps me survive the shoes starting out as net- shoes is to not feel a need for 100% recovery in that one shoe. So as an example if I drawdown -800 on a 2000 buyin, then recover so that Im only Net: -200 after 60--70% of shoe. I feel blessed/fortunate as often this is where players dig a very deep hole, IMO. Though I could indeed see favorable environments in latter part of that shoe and recover after that first brief uptick and recovery. However, after that one partial recovery I seldom see another recovery spot. I sometimes find it optimum to simply stand still and monitor while I wait for the beginning of a new shoe. Just me personally.


Asyms' post #909:
"...Trying to be more right than wrong per every hand dealt is impossible and we're pretty certain that it's impossible either when betting half hands of a shoe.
For that matter we have tried to operate our algos by a betting frequency close to 1/3 of total hands dealt and itlr results were a disaster.

To stay put in the vast majority of the times is the key to have success itlr as just a single or a couple of hands that went wrong mathematically could transform a wonderful sequence into a horrible one.  ..."


    I agree that fewer hands are often optimum vs. more hands. Especially if one is wagering a static bet at a predetermined spot (Which I do not). Your 33% may be accurate but I actually think for myself its actually less than 33%. I keep meticulous records and have noted (one wager) as my fewest ever wagered in one full shoe. My "most wagers" per shoe sometimes will approach 15-25 but only occasionally/ only in a shoe with several strong continuous events showing, which is rare. My typical number of wagers per 6-deck shoe is in the range of 8-12 placed bets.


Continued Success to All,

ash190 in #16 above: I like that one.
---------------------------------------------------------------




"THE RACE IS NOT ALWAYS TO THE SWIFT, NOR THE BATTLE TO THE STRONG, BUT THAT'S THE WAY TO BET." — DAMON RUNYON

Hi Albalaha

"...I played latest three instead of two and had better results. Played a few dozen sessions. Mostly easy win. Anyone else tried this?..."

I have not tested enough to form an opinion yet(using your bet-selection criteria above).

Most all individual-bet selection criteria I've tested for Roulette tend to suggest between 3.0 and 4.0 Indvidual numerals seems to perform best. That is, when my wagering objective is to balance win potential with buyin survival.


Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy

In your post a couple days ago:
"...Algos work because they try to estimate the relationship between the actual card distribution and the "average card distribution".

Players "guessing" doesn't work because it tends to get rid of the "average" privileging the "actual".

On the contrary, "triggers" players do not win either as they put too much emphasis about the "expected" instead of assigning a proper value on the "actual"...."

There was once a Bac App on youtube a group was selling that one could use to make a decision on P vs B. I also see players at Stadium Bac in Biloxi,Mississippi, USA  et al casinos utilizing an app on their phone. They would enter each and every card extracted. The casinos didn't seem to care as they walked by and didn't ask questions or say anything.


* I do not know if the app was analyzing patterns and then utilizing an algorithm to project a winner based on the previous patterns or simply assessing the cards removed (& remaining) and projecting a winner based on that alone(The edge would only be minimal on the latter and still may not neutralize 100% of house edge, IMO).


Any thoughts?

I typically don't play Bac on Sunday. However, a bac comrade asked I travel with him to check out a new Bac Version: 3 Dice Bac by Galaxy Gaming. The design and rules are as follows:

Three dice are placed in a cup for each side Player and Banker.
Each cup has a clear lid. The dealer shakes each cup and flips the cup upside down in front of the players and raises the cup upward from the lid exposing the three dice with the top of each die(3) totaling the respective scores.
The totals are calculated like cards(e.g., 3 Die total of 12 would result in that sides' score being 2)

*Commission Free
     *Push on a win with totals = 3-0( for both sides).
*No drawing rules
*Several bonus wagers such as any 3-0 win, with payout of 35-0. So players could hedge on the above push if one desires.
*My research indicates that some casinos will allow the players to shake the cup. Though the casino I played did not allow players to shake the cup.
 
My Questions:
Anybody played this version?
What is the house edge for the 3-0 Push?
Addendum thoughts and suggestions?


Thanks in advance,kfb

From Billy Walters, the world's greatest and most successful sports gambler.

A great read with several applications to other types of gambling. Thanks to forum alum AsymBacGuy for recommending this book. I purchased a couple weeks after its release and concur with Asym's opinion.

Gambler Secrets from a Life at Risk(Billy Walters,2023)



Continued Success,

Delayed decision re: Bitcoin ETF application by Black Rock.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/bitcoin-etf-spot-sec-ark-21-shares-crypto-market-2023-9

Five class-action lawsuits filed against Vegas casinos for neglecting to protect personal ID records

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/mgm-caesars-face-class-action-lawsuits-over-cyberattacks-2910637/#:~:text=Five%20class%20action%20lawsuits%20filed%20in%20Nevada%20District,compromised%20during%20separate%20attacks%20made%20public%20this%20month.

Hi Asym

Good thoughts in post #895.

I have a couple thoughts/ questions but will need to ponder your essay a little more.




Cheers,

Good essay/several good points.

"...But I felt something and not just because I had a huge return on my $100. So into the following shoe, I reached well over $8,000 of win money and I called it quits once I drop down to $7,000 of pure win. All of it off that next to nothing $100 buy in. ..."

    that's an adequate ROI, 

"...Larger wins take a climb, meaning a bit back-and-forth, winning, losing, pushing back-and-forth, etc. Parlay and positive progression wagering really boosts the person's chip stacks, ..."


    I agree. The larger the win the larger the risk. The inverse is true as well(lower appetite for risk and one will win less/ may lose too. So lower risk tolerance can also bust a buyin.


"...So many believe it is an easy decision to make. I guess it depends on your experience, outlook, desires and goals. For myself, I love the point of working my drawdown, getting a bit of profit, working that into my money management method and looking for the 'takeoff'. And for me that is where the money is really at..."

    I agree--especially the part about understanding the inevitable drawdown.
Though I don't play any more or fewer hands after a sizeable win or loss. I might switch shoes or pause wagering if not in sync with the outcomes.

 Re: Drawdown:I feel we should exhaust our buyin (meaning we actually utilize the whole buyin), in our attempt to earn a sizeable return. A mistake I made early on was accepting the risk to my buyin but not really exhausting(putting the buyin to work), so my potential to earn my buyin was very low. Yet, I could physically still lose it all. Flat betting  or utilizing only minimal gyrations of negpro or pospro can still wipe out a buyin.


"...The 4 things I found that give me advantages into my play.

1). DO NOT ATTEMPT/LIVE to beat the game/session.  You can't and will never do it!  I promise you that;

    My opinion differs on this one. I attempt to beat the game every day/ when Im not playing Im researching, studying the game, discussing with others,  ..etc on how to improve and beat it. So I guess I am obsessed and live to beat the game. Much like trying to beat the stock market. One must be obsessed with winning as both are very arduous tasks. Sometimes I receive favor /sometimes I don't.

2). TRULY UNDERSTAND what you are up against;

3). CALM AND PATIENT.  Hard as heck to do with losses, but you must.  Don't dwell and don't have the mind frame to recover and win something;

    I agree this is the key. Its all about being patient(along with self discipline). Its easy to go on tilt when losing as well as when winning(Surprisingly many seem to have more difficulty with the winning). They won't allow themselves to really win big but will chase losses with their very last dollars.

4). UNDERSTAND AND REMAIN CONSCIOUS of the following.  Anything and everything can happen in no particular order or protocol whatsoever. ..."
    I agree.


Good read/ congrats on an excellent win.

Hi Asym--Good read above.

"...Basically casinos offer three kind of shoe shuffling:

a- manually

b- shuffling machines (the most utilized is the Shuffle Master and its variations)

c- preordered shuffle (HS rooms for example)..."

I once overheard a dealer respond to her pit boss when he asked was she ready to open the Bac game. She said yes but I accidentally did a BJ shuffle. His response was: "Fxxk it " just get the game started."

This was many years ago /I could not see the type of shuffler they were using(though I tried,lol). My question to Asym and others:

What shuffling options do casinos have with modern day shuffling machines for Bac. For example, do they have five buttons on the back (A,B,C,D,E,...etc) for whatever shuffle.

Do they have >= 3-4 different types of shuffles.?
I know they can order pre-shuffled cards with different types of shuffles.

I also know some casinos shuffles tend to generate certain profiles. *I have one cas that will most certainly have longer-than-expectation streaks of 2x2s. I noticed this about six years ago and have actually collected data to confirm my hypothesis.

I also know dealers that have indicated their instructions are to turn shuffler on for a predetermined number of minutes to supposedly insure an adequate shuffle. I've had dealers say they just turn the shuffler on, and it lets them know (green light comes on) when the shuffle is finished, . . .etc.

Any thoughts by anyone?


Thx in advance, kfb

Follow up to above MGM story on cyber attacks.
I saw the following story yesterday (9/26/23). It's interesting as I have a neighbor that started a cyber security business a couple years ago. When I first mentioned the MGM story a few days ago his first statement was: "I can assure you there is more to the story. MGM patrons' personal info has also been hacked."

According to him these cyber-attacks are nearly always by groups (Domestic/International) that are involved in other crimes (sex trafficking, laundering money, drug trades,..etc), and not just some 8th grader playing around at night in his bedroom just seeing who all he can hack.

He also said sometimes these large corporations feign cyber-attacks to cover up their own mess that is about to be discovered.
He said the hackers always get caught/prosecuted but often not for 2-5years because governments want to watch them and prosecute for the other crimes too (At least in the USA).



https://www.ktnv.com/news/complaints-filed-say-mgm-resorts-caesars-entertainment-failed-to-protect-information-from-cyberattack


Continued Success,