I wish more casinos offered Pai Gow Poker. A low H.E. and slow game.


https://www.casino.org/news/jackpot-flamingo-las-vegas-pai-gow-poker-player-wins-6-4m/

Hmmmm Kinda interesting as.
Thanks for your work on this/for sharing.

Alot to digest so I will need to review and read again.

At first glance I like the scaled score for the ease in keeping running tabs.

Your statement:

"What to bet if all of the above conditions are fulfilled.

In the remaining 25 or so hands, there's a substantial math propensity to get Banker side not forming heavy negative outliers, meaning that at this 25 hands 'conditioned' sample Banker side will get a fair number of winning hands over the possible total outcomes."

Q: Is there any consideration given if say P has also built a lead in that front 50 decisions? Maybe have a cutoff of say +6 or +8 net Wins or something similar (e.g., 28-22 or 29-21,..etc)??
I think your hypothesis would have additional merit if that was indeed the case.

More later & thx again AsymBacGuy

Thx alrelax all great songs.

I would rank Kenny Rogers (The Gambler) as number one from the above.
Great lyrics throughout but really like the closing:

Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done



Cheers,

Hi alrelax/ albalaha

What I see when viewing Home and scrolling down viewing the left hand column: I see the section for (Asymbacguy) and directly below is the section (VRSEDGE). I do not see the section for (Albalaha's Exclusive) as shown in the pic above by alrelax.

Im glad you guys noted this as a few days ago I was looking for an old post of albalaha and couldnt find his section. However, I was able to find his name on an old post and after clicking on his profile able to click on his "Posts" and then able to see all of his posts.
My assumption was that maybe with all the remods and changes recently to home page by VLS maybe some sections were temporarily moved or repositioned,..etc.

Either way thx for addressing.

Continued Success to all,

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE
Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year

See you in the Bac pit!

As of 12/22/22. The following are all the Las Vegas casinos that offer baccarat tables. We included the type of game, minimum bet, and amount of tables.

https://www.onlineunitedstatescasinos.com/las-vegas/games/baccarat/

Great post AsymBacGuy and perfectly stated:

"But baccarat is not an independent random model, especially while taking complex events as 'triggers'."

"There are infinite 'complex' patterns to look for."

An addendum thought to your fine post. What many players may think is a simple event is in reality a "Complex" event. Meaning many things have to line up for it to present.


Continued Success,

Great post AsymBacGuy

I agree with your comments about #2. Also, IMO #4 is correlated with #2.

I also see Ties as often contributing to our decision-making process and "clustering" (In a negative or confusing manner), at least for me.

Continued Success,

THX,

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Good thread and posts asym/alrelax

asym in post #733:

"...5) Baccarat is a game of numbers

At gambling games when you provide numbers you look smarter, especially if numbers derive from complicated math formulas where 99.9% of common people won't know a bit about. ..."
    That is funny/very true   

AND asym states in same post:

"...On the other end, without numbers we can't estimate whether our method may get a decent chance to win itlr, but for obvious reasons 'the long run' is shorter than the infinite field where math formulas apply.

Simplyfing the subject, either a given method/approach works or it doesn't and we do not need millions of shoes tested to verify this.
And imo the only way to ascertain this is to assess if our method will get more wins than losses that in another way means that wins and losses are restricted within 'ranges' getting lower sd values than expected...."

    The last part of the last sentence is how one wins the ballgame/ where our efforts should be focused.


Continued Success,

Thank you AsymBacGuy.
-------------------------------------------


Bac Money Management

In the following I will present my personal thoughts/preferences for MM of my buyin. I will try to avoid some very important and related subtopics from this very broad subject:MM. They too are part of my overall game but will i sidestep these other areas of MM so I don't make a long post longer.

To my thinking MM is extremely important and that along with the above subtopics must "fit" ones "own" overall gameplan. All the parts must fit together like a glove so our money (each wager) can work as a team (buy in) and not as separate individuals.  Just like a basketball, soccer, or football team. If one player (wager) is performing poorly we need another to overperform. 

 

Most importantly and first/foremost. Identify your win goal for this buyin and this buyin only, and every single action we take must be in pursuit of that goal.

 

As I've mentioned in previous posts most of my casinos only have one or two tables and often the only option is $50--$2K Tmax.  A couple offer 25—1K, and a couple $50/100--$5K, and a couple Cas offer 10K Tmax . Though the 5K is often only on Fri/Sat night and very seldom during the week or days. The 10K tables are 6.5 hours away so not relevant for most of my daily play.

Thus, my methodology is based on the 50—2000 table unless stated otherwise. Any variation and I simply raise (or lower) the Buyin and base unit proportional to Tmax at the respective table.

So, my buyin is 2K and I make my base unit $60. If at a 100—5K table buyin/base unit (150) is proportional and so forth.

I like my BU (base unit) at increments of 60 (I.e. 120,150,180,240,...etc)because its an easy metric for some of my wagering regimes, compounding, and fractional betting scales ( 1,½,1/3,¼,1/5, et al). More on this fractional betting later on when I speak about compounding along a smooth curve.

The selection of a buyin for $2k at a 2K Tmax table, and $60 base unit is mainly due to my theseis: The max I can win on any one W is $2K and the max the casino will ever win from me in any one shoe is 2K.  Though it will take the Cas more than one win and often at least three or more consecutive bad shoes to extract that from me. 

My modus operandi. How can I most efficiently win >= my buyin >=once PRIOR to the casino winning my buyin <=once, when I run across several consecutive bad shoes.

This brings me to my next topic (How I handle bad shoes), and a very important part of my M.O. 

The next paragraph is one of the main attributes of my overall game. This is one of my best moves as I seek to limit my losing shoes/sessions and win on the upper end knowing my losses can only go to –0--. In other words I want my losses on  the really bad shoes (say –3 SD) to be <= to my losses on the reallyreallyhorriblebad shoes (say –4.5SD) as I will be busted and not be around that shoe when and if it ever does approach a 

Variance of (-4.5SD, -6sd,-8Sd,...etc.). I also know I will also see shoes in my favor (+2 , to +3SD, to +4.5SD,...etc.). So set limits on my downside and never ever try to tame the Variance (or volatility) on the upside. We shall see both regardless of one's skill set. It does not matter if one is doing progression, regression, flat bet, or anything else we want to call it.

 It's my opinion winning (or losing) with a progression compared with a regression or with a flat bet , or any other has more to do with one's tolerance for volatility than it has to do with a person's statistical capacity to win money.  If one has an advantage greater than the H.E. (most of you do), then we want as much money as we possible wagered as often as we can. I'm not talking about being a gunslinger and just slinging bets of all shapes/sizes without a focused goal in mind.

 

 

How I handle bad shoes: My Best Move.

     When I bust a buyin (regardless of if in one shoe or three or more) I do the following. I force a dry smile and state to my table comrades: "Good luck everyone sees you in a little while". That's nothing else.

I stand up, scoot my chair in, remove any water bottles, and start walking away. As I walk away, I take my R hand and reach over my L shoulder to give myself two pats on the back. WHY? 

I congratulate myself for not going on tilt and limiting my loss on a very bad shoe to <=1 buyin. I have never (n-e-v-e-r) rebought into a lost-buyin shoe the second time. I simply note how long until a new shoe will be opened at that table or any other table nearby and take 10-15mins to go to restroom, walk around, ...etc. THEN, I go to the cage and get another buyin and look for a table (even the previous one) that is prepping to open a new shoe.

 

 

Exchanges:

We are constantly "exchanging" Ws/Ls streaks with the casino: WLWWLLWLLLWWWLWWWWW,..etc.

Winning and losing is all about the order. Regardless of the order of my W/L I want to be slightly better (moving toward my Win Goal) with each W at the end of these exchanges of L series. If Im losing (LLLW) I want that W to put my stack in a better position than prior to its commencement. Example: -60,-60,-60,then win @ +65= Net –115. That $5 may seem miniscule. However, that is 5/60 =.083 ,   or another way of viewing is if  I lost 3iar =180 so 5/180= .0277 . Recall H.E. is approx .012 . So, in the above exchange the Cas did not receive its full compensation. Nor did that measly $5 jeopardize my buy in.

Same with a win streak of WWWL or any other variation of W/Ls. I never stand still (meaning I don't flat bet with 0 fluctuations on steaks of W or L), and after another 3:1 or 1: 3 , streak I want more in my stack vs prior to when this exchange started.

My M.O. is to do an aggressive Pos pro and slow negpro as I attempt to "nick" away at the Cas win/ compound my streak of winning series. We will see W/L streaks both the same as forum alumni albalaha has diligently told us.  I concur.

 

 

Press-To-Our-Win

*I will preface the following paragraphs with: I'm constantly monitoring my stacks, so I always know if Im below even or ahead and by how much. Though I never wager less than my base unit I know I can't get ahead until I get even. I never wager less than my base unit as I don't want to be in a position where I need more Ws than Ls to be even. If I'm ahead I still wager at least my BU. I strive to keep more than 50% of my L wagers near my base unit.  One way I do this is to not start a pospro if I'm in a signif deficit or let's say I haven't won very many wagers yet, or maybe I lost my first 3-4 wagers and then finally get a W. . I don't start a pospro if I just lost three and won one. Im still in a losing streak, not in sync with outcomes yet, and simply stumbled onto a W. 

Striving to keep Ls at or near base unit. This an easy task and I'm fairly good at this. Meaning we are likely to lose approx ½  of our wagers the first time they are wagered. So, approx  50% of first-time wagers never get out of the gate. 

     

     My goal is  press to my win. Meaning I press through the win. I do not press a couple times, stand still a couple times, reduce $5, add $5, wait until I collect at this or that level, start pressing again and after a 10streak of consecutive Ws Im almost even.  W streaks are difficult to come by and IMO a pospro player must press early and often(meaning press something every single   time, even if only $5)).   

The pospro bettors' success is determined by what we are doing on wager#1 and wager#2 and press#1 as everything out a say t + Wager#4/#5 and the compounding spinoff, is largely determined by what we were doing at Press#1. WHY?

My personal view is as follows and I think all will agree with the obvious on wins in a row:

We will win 1iar >= win 2iar >= win3iar>= win 4iar >= win 5iar ...etc.

 

So IMO: We should make Press#1% >= Press #2% >= Press#3% >= Press#4% >=Press#5%, ...etc.

 

*Reminder: When doing a pospro remember we will need two more Wins to be where we are right now (regarding net W monies). So, I'm not suggesting never ever stop doing a pospro. Im just saying get to where your going as fast/efficiently as possible. Then if one must do a stutter step, or regress , just make sure one always handles this stage the same way (throughout the whole buyin). 

Re: changing directions. Regressing is a fine tool, however, I'm against changing directions more than once such as presspresspresspressRegressPresspress, ...etc (See car example in earlier post above). Also,  I would want to make sure that peak wager was as a minimum sufficiently above our "avg" wager size (and optimally >=50% of buyin size or we have a net >50% BI), prior to changing directions. At least get to our predetermined win goal (even if < 50%BI, whatever yours may be). Mainly, be consistent with this through the whole shoe and that buyin.

 

Re:

Press#1% >= Press #2% >= Press#3% >= Press#4% >=Press#5%, ...etc.

I like everything after my base bet to be a function of that base bet size (unless one wants to implement an exponential press regime—which I will talk about later if enough interest). The point I'm trying to make is don't change our gameplan (and goal) at mid game.

An example of the above press regime and why I either start or make my wager quickly get to an increment of 60. For example, let's say at a 50min table I had wagered a base unit $55 I would likely just press to 120, ...etc. So any future presses could follow a smooth curve.

I like the starting series to be an increment of 60(LCD for 1,2,3,4,5,6), and because of the ease in wagering a fractional press with more precision in the early stages.

Examples:

Let's say I start with a base bet of 60 and win. Looking above I see press#1% >=press#2%. Therefore, I wouldn't lead with a press of $5 as I would be locked into never pressing more than $5 (and since I like to press something on every W, I don't want to limit my pressing options). So,

Let's say I press 100%: Bet 1=60, bet 2=120, (See rules above) so I know bet 3 must press but can't press > than but could press =% the first press. I could press to 240 but let's say I'm ahead in this shoe, hit my win goal,  so I shall press 50%. So now :bet1=60,bet2 was 120, bet 3=150(+50% of my base unit=$30), I win this 3rd bet IAR and my net-to-my-stack so far on this initial investment of $60 is:  +90,+150,=+240, and I still have a $150 wager and "my option" as to what I do with it. Note I didn't collect anything on first hit(nemesis).

I will press ($20 which is 33% of my base unit—Not a function of the current wager size), so my next wager would be $170. So as we can see the wager is getting larger/larger, with my addendum monies getting smaller/smaller fast.   

I view each wager as "what is my investment in this wager, what is casinos investment in this wager, and what is my potential win. I want the casino to be invested >50% ASAP as I'm willing to let them win that last wager. However, I want them to be mostly winning their own money back "AFTER" they have paid me several times on my initial investment as well as their initial investment. I don't have to let them win that final bet, however, IMO we have our investment out of it. Furthermore, after that 3rd hit the final press anywhere on down the line where we would lose has been generated by the earlier compounds. 

*Note: When I speak of Win streaks seldom do I mean consecutive wins on one event ( same side, opps, ..etc) as I find longer W streaks by catching a couple here, setting it aside, and jumping into another event, or shoe, or casino, as I keep that Winning wager going as long as possible. I also caution you again  not to change your gameplan midstream. That is,  don't win several times like above (& press in a decreasing%), and after 5-6 wins go "WTH" Im ahead so I shall parlay the whole thing and see what happens---We just gave back all our compounds if it loses as the casino negates each level with one single W. My thinking is to play in the short term but know we are playing a long term game. 

 

My main premise is to press in a methodical manner so that press curve(if plotting on a graph) is a smooth curve and not jagged. You can design whatever decreasing angle of curve you want but if we make it jagged then we are making it all about timing (pulling it down or press big) at just the right time. I find the above very efficient as it gets our money out quick yet keeps that wager growing. 

 

The main metrics I keep in my mind's eye as I go through a shoe:

Buyin, ½ buyin, 20% of buyin, base unit size, , press%, win goal, H.E. Everything I do is designed with these objectives at the forefront. 

*Im not saying I always press exactly as shown above. However, regardless if doing something like above or an exponential regime, et al,  the following is always the underlying foundation.

Press#1% >= Press #2% >= Press#3% >= Press#4% >=Press#5%, ...etc.

 

Most importantly press so that you hit "Your" target more often than not. I recommend utilizing our whole buyin--Exhaust your buyin. In other words use the full force of your buyin in our battle with the casino. A mistake I made early on is that I would unknowingly or unintentionally utilize only about 30-40% of buyin yet try to win a substantial amount. I had a very high winning-shoe %, yet seldom won > half my buyin(though risking 100% of BI),  and or I sliced/diced myself to a loss trying to protect my buyin.

 

When I lose a buyin(and I do ), I want the casino to know they have been in a battle/ they had to fight me tooth/nail to extract it from me. So when that casino CEO looks down from his windowed office and sees us entering the casino. We want him to say: 

"Oh Sheat!".

 

 

Continued Success To All,

that's an adequate ROI. This is similar to how my Bac parlays perform.

I found it interesting the Book is offering to buy his bet before the final leg. Would you take the buyout?



https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/news/2022/12/15/parlay-bettor-on-track-for-557000-if-france-beat-argentina-in-world-cup-final/

Thanks ABG for above post. Very good.

One part Im not clear on what you mean.


You say : "...Naturally 'peaks' and 'flat' situations are the by product of the actual card distribution. More precisely they are in direct relationship of the key cards concentration/dilution parameter, a process completely dependent as once key cards are removed (or conversely live) in the deck patterns will be affected in some way..."
Vulgarly speaking, we can't hope to get a pattern to stop when it's in the 'peak' mood but we can safely assume that a kind of 'flat' situation will happen for quite long...."

re: the blue sentence.
Are you speaking about the area of shoe where (Specific Cards Removed) --ratio to-- (Total Cards Remaining) makes a sudden and often short-duration change??? Often it seems to be about ~~40%--50% penetration into the shoe.
(An example would be where let's say a greater than expected number of 8/9s have already been removed and then suddenly in two consecutive hands six more 8/9s get removed. Thus, immediately making the shoe significantly low on 8/9s  vs Total Remaining Cards).

OR

Are you speaking about something totally different?

Thanks,

BAC Acronyms/Terms (Add yours here)

 

Like many of you I often hurriedly type or post from my phone and often use acronyms for convenience.   Below are some of the more commonly used ones related to Bac, Math, and general gaming terms.  I encourage you to add yours. You can even make up your own. Thanks in advance.

 

IAR—In a row

Wiar—Wins in a row

P—Capital P for Player.  lower case p for player sitting at the table

H.E. or HE—House Edge

SD – Standard Deviation

V—Variance

EV—Expected Value. +EV—Positive expected value

Ai—All In

AMC—All my chips

Ante—A fee charged to players before cards are dealt.

BB—Bad beat: A lost hand that was favored to win.

B&M—Bricks and Mortar casino vs online et al

BI—Buyin

Bk—Bankroll

BR—Bank Roll

BRM—Bankroll Management

BC—Burn cards

BM—Bet Max or Tmax=Table max

CSM—Continuous Shuffle Machine

CA—Casino Advantage. Also see H.E. or house edge.

EGM—Electronic Gaming Machine

EVM—Even Money Bet, paid 1:1.

FT—Full Table

Fish—The sad dejected player. If you can't spot them at your table? Its probably you.

FB—Flat betting. A player that cosistently bets the same amount.

Flea—A sponger. The player that expects everything for nothing, lie big comps for placing an occasional small bet.

GC—Gaming Commission

GAI—Going All In.

OS—Optimal Strategy

Paint—Another word for face card.

PB—Pit Boss.

Pigeon—A newbie player, rookie. Often lacks sophistication/finesse in that game.

RNG—Random Number Generator

Sawdust Joint—Often refers to a rough casino or may be small, low Tmax, sweat joint and or poorly run.

Tilt—Someone on a losing streak and yet continues.

VIP—Very important person. Often a a very large bettor.

Whale—A big player with big buyin and big wagers.

KFBW—Kungfubac For the Big Win—Ok I just made that up.

 

Great read /thx ASB

"Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck"
     I agree with the premise we win with skill vs luck. However, sometimes I need a little more
than 1% luck to get the W,   . Meaning sometimes I finish a session and avoid a loss or only get a small win and realize "I was very lucky" and did not deserve the "tie". However, I gladly accept the favor. Baccarat mimics life in many ways.

"4) Baccarat is a game of ranges, that is about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted to mathematically provide some more likely results, so forming more likely patterns."

     Yes indeed my friend. I concur.

Im looking forward to your next installment in this fine thread.



Continued Success