Good post 8OR9--I was getting ready to post this (or similar) link from MSN and noticed you beat me to it.

"...over two-thirds of blackjack tables on the Strip have shifted from 3:2 payouts to 6:5. Tables that pay out at 6:5 give the winning gambler $12 for every $10 bet as opposed to winning $15 in a 3:2 payout, Mehaffey explained.

Bets at the roulette tables on the Strip are also getting harder to win thanks to a triple-zero iteration of the game that favors the house rather than the gambler, per WSJ.
  ..."

Roulette Dealer: "Step right up folks--Now offering Triple-Zero roulette: More ways to win,...etc." 



Continued Success,

alrelax in original post of this thread:

"*...  The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in football.  Just because a play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.  But actually and better defined is, that the other team just had something that outdid you or their moves just excelled and yours could not come forward and be probably executed.)..."

In Baccarat this sentence is so true: The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result.

As players we should look at wagers and think "is this a good-value buy(GVB)". If it is a GVB for that shoe in that spot then place the wager and not look back(Ok to always be evaluating our choices. However, we may still NOT win many of our Good-Value Bets).

Nor should we expect to win in a dominating ratio(e.g., win 8/11 or say 16/20 bets). It is a victory if we can only manage winning 6/11 placed wagers. 11/21 placed wagers,...etc). Its this same "tightness" in the great game of Bac that also makes it difficult to lose 8/11 or 16/20 placed wagers.
This is a good thing.

When one limits their bet placement to a good,better,best choice and selectively only choosing perceived "best" spots we will see our overall results as winning slightly more correct vs incorrect.
In other words always ask ourselves just before bet placemeent: Is this a good-value bet. We should be able to state WHY we are placing this bet right now. What makes it better than random.

We should be able to silently say in our minds eye: Im betting B or P because of: _________, or because of ___________ and _____________, or because of _________, _________, and _________ just occurred...etc.

I find it helpful to keep meticulous records and notes for review (re: bet selection) and what I was thinking before placing that bet(Win or lose). Often, I look back at a losing shoe and find very few if any wagers that I would have placed differently. Usually, my losing shoes will have my side losing 2-3 extra hands to atypical outcomes or abnormal series of events' continuance. However, I know across several shoes of only placing perceived "good-value" bets I will get the W (meaning +Net $) for the day.


Continued Success,

Hi Gizmotron--hope all is well.

Your statement: "They are unpredictable but at times they are coincidental."

Can you elaborate on that.
I view the word coincidental meaning in this context as: (results from chance despite being very unlikely,...etc) Do you mean something different?




Continued Success,

alrelax in orig post at beginning of this great thread(Great thoughts/comments everyone). Ill try to take one topice at a time.

RANDOMNESS.  What truly is random?  What are advantages?  What are Disadvantages?  How can I use Sections and recognize them?
------------------------------------------------------------------

Randomness:
"In common usage, randomness is the apparent or actual lack of pattern or predictability in information.[1][2] A random sequence of events, symbols or steps often has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable.[note 1] For example, when throwing two dice, the outcome of any particular roll is unpredictable, but a sum of 7 will tend to occur twice as often as 4. In this view, randomness is not haphazardness; it is a measure of uncertainty of an outcome. Randomness applies to concepts of chance, probability, and information entropy. "

IMO this is key: Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable[

Or my preferred way of saying that last sentence:
"but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is SLIGHTLY MORE predictable VS RANDOMLY GUESSING[ "

Our ability to use logic/deduction(reasoning) gives us a huge advantage when trying to guess one more correct than incorrect. My thinking is: The Laws Of Probability (LOP) are like a cloud hovering always above the table (its always there suggesting what will happen across hundreds of outcomes).

However, just as certain types of clouds can suggest rain(or not rain) within the next hour. We can use these (LOP) clouds to predict our (rain or not rain) at the table. In other words if we see a cloud overhead and also know the meteorologist has stated 60% probability of rain. Then we wait until we start feeling just a slight moisture on our arm so lightly that we can only sense it on our arm hair---THAT is the moment we should place our bet on rain.

Some players invert this order of events and think: I shall bet for rain every hand and thus it shall start raining (eventually).


Continued Success,

re: #2 John Gates from above from 7 Biggest Baccarat Legends.

"...Yet another famous Gates gambling story is when he bet on which raindrops would fall the fastest on a window. He and an associate made wagers worth up to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the falling raindrops.  ..."

    When I first read that I thought: "is this Gates guy just a degenerate gambler." ??
Then I had a second thought and concluded (maybe or maybe not): Maybe he knew something about (Falling speed of raindrops) that his opponent didn't know. Maybe he knew that he knew more overall knowledge about falling raindrops than his opponent. So it may have actually been "A Good-Value Bet" for Gates.
At the casino as well as in life: There are good-value/bad-value bets. In other words what is the risk vs reward or what is the potential.

This thought led to another thought (I've been doing a lot of thinking lately).
I perceive that in a casino there are numerous wagering opportunities across the many games where a Good-Value Bet could be found more often vs only looking at the single bac shoe we are playing. I often ponder if we could maybe find other Non-Baccarat betting opportunities by simply strolling through the table pit and note the tote boards at various other games. Streak or anti-streak or whatever else you feel is a good trigger.
This may be more applicable at small casinos where they may only have 1-2 Bac tables but 20-30 other games always in play.
Simply walk through the pit/note the most recent outcomes at a particular game and making a couple attempts.

I feel most certain that Mr. Gates could find a good betting opportunity (Win or lose some bets are still a good-value buy).

Thoughts?

Thx Asym for all the details /examples.

I like your utilization of 7 event cycles.


In your post #796 above.

as:

"...2- On the other end, the less likely event or series of events show the obvious general propensity to come out isolated, yet they are way more affected by volatility than the above 'clusters' propensity as in some way they must catch up the 'normal' clustering effect.
After having studied large live shoes datasets we have reached the conclusion that it's better to 'chase' clusters than hoping to get 'less likely' isolated situations.  ..."

re: clusters

    I find your concept above critical to ones long-term success. An addendum thought regarding all things cluster--I also find that after catching a couple wins from said cluster it is beneficial to not keep looking for the same exact cluster or "grouping" (in that shoe). The initial concept is still valid in the residual of that shoe. However, the residual of that shoe now possess one less of the Previously Caught Cluster.






Continue On My Friend,

As an addendum to Gizmotron post #4 above:

"We don't stop playing because we get old, we get old because we stop playing"
Doyle Brunson, RIP.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/golf/poker-icon-doyle-brunson-dies-at-89-years-old/ar-AA1bbr59?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=77fd04dfea1f4d3ea763ada19bf9d2bf&ei=11

7 Biggest Baccarat Legends--Scroll to the bottom for the link. Thanks for viewing.kfb

The following is an excerpt from #2 John Gates:

"...His wife, Dellora, wasn't thrilled about these marathon poker sessions. But John kept diamonds in his vest pocket and gave them to Dellora to calm her down and keep his poker games going.

Gates once wagered $70,000 on a horse race in England and won $600,000 dollars. The story was exaggerated to claim that he won $1 million, which only furthered his reputation as Mr. Bet-a-Million.

Yet another famous Gates gambling story is when he bet on which raindrops would fall the fastest on a window. He and an associate made wagers worth up to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the falling raindrops.   ..."



https://www.gamblingsites.net/blog/7-biggest-baccarat-legends/

The volatility at the Bac table is easier to navigate.

May 8,2023

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-05-08/Bitcoin-crashes-below-27-400-wiping-60-billion-from-the-crypto-market-cap.html

I could possibly consider playing online "Live" dealer Bac (Where we can view dealer cutting/dealing live.
Has anybody played Bac in this manner??? Thoughts/ Opinions ?? Thx in advance.


Live Casino Online - Best Live Dealer Casinos & Games May 2023

Thx for TR(session report). The bad along with the good.

"...Please Note:  My win was not what it should have been by any means.  Which were positive progressions with a minimum of parlayed amounts, if not greater. ..."



When I finish a shoe or a multi-shoe session and look back. I often find the reason I didn't win a net+ isn't always because of a subpar hit rate (guessed more wrong vs right). It was because I didn't win the amount I should have on the winning steaks, or winning shoes. It was that one or two key presses that missed and would have returned a significant profit vs Now Im drawn down even further.

As players we often beat ourselves up for the losing (or subpar) sessions and pat ourselves on the back for the winning sessions when both types of sessions boiled down to just one or two key decisions. A skilled player will win just slightly more than 50% of these key-decision hands (at least for me Im not out there consistently winning 25/30 consec decisions,...etc).

One more reason Im an advocate for a prospro. I'm losing less when I'm missing and significantly more when I guess that key-decision correct. Sometimes on my winning sessions I actually guessed more incorrect but won 3-4 consecutive presses that overwhelmed the subpar guess rate.
This bust or boom approach isn't for everyone, but I feel in the long run most would make a greater NET.

IMO the "bust" is only dangerous if one depends on the "boom"..


Thx again for the TR (& for always reporting the neg as well as the pos).


Continued Success,

Thanks Asym for your prompt response.

I like your way of thinking.

"...IMO a long term winning bac player should put the house to hope for something slight unlikely to happen and not vice versa..."


Continued Success,

Thx for the intel/ theories above in post #785. Several good applications.

Can you elaborate a little more on the following:

"...On the other end and despite a slight than average apparition, W clusters distribute more clustered than isolated (of course after having considered the 3:1 probability ratio)...."


Asym:

"...It's obvious that the game could be beatable by qualities and quantity qualities and not by mere quantities...."



tongue twister 

The following link shows historical/recent Nevada Gaming Revenue (by game). I was a little surprised at the low Win% of (~~5-6%) for Slots and Sportsbook vs Table Games (~~12--20%).



https://gaming.library.unlv.edu/reports/longterm_nvgaming_OAR.pdf


Additional info at same link above. Click on Home and All Reports. Then scroll down as several other reports I found interesting.



Citation:
Nevada Gaming Revenues: Long-Term Trends. Las Vegas: Center for Gaming Research,
University Libraries, University of Nevada Las Vegas, 2023

I copied the chart from this link and highlighted Roulette  and Baccarat
*Note the first line in the chart below is the average hold %.

Q: Any thoughts on why Roulette average hold is approximately 150% of Bac??


The following table shows the average, maximum, and minimum monthly hold percentages for the
period January 2004 through January 2023 for four table games:

MONTHLY STATEWIDE HOLD PERCENTAGES, 2004-2023
Category 21 Craps Roulette Baccarat
Average 12.60 14.08 18.88 12.44
High 18.12 20.23 25.70 21.99
Low 8.23 8.03 9.17 2.91
Variance 9.89 12.20 16.53 19.08
Std Dev 1.69 2.13 3.16 3.11
Exp Low 10.91 11.95 15.71 9.33
Exp High 14.29 16.21 22.04 15.56

Any monthly result that deviates significantly from these averages will impact monthly gaming
revenues in a way that may distort the true level of play.

As can be seen by the ranges of variation, Twenty-One, even though it has the highest level of skill
out of any of the four games studied here, had the smallest variance, while roulette had the greatest



Continued Success,