Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx for comment above in post #1.


What's your opinion?

I agree with your reason above as contributing to higher hold for casino:  Betting huge after losing and conservatively while winning.

Also, we will for the most part win our personal average win-streak-length with little correlation to the amount of said wager size. If anything its my opinion we will actually have a slightly higher strike rate (slightly higher strike % and higher streak length) as a function of wager size(Meaning the higher the wager climbs the more selective we are). Just my opinion. I know Im more selective with a $2000 wager vs a $200 wager.

What I'm suggesting is it doesn't matter if we are wagering a flat bet, small bet, big bet, negpro, or pospro,...etc,  we will each still approach an average hit % ratio and streak length regardless of if one is wagering table min or table max or anything in between.

Thus, my advocacy for a Pos progression. In other words, if I'm fortunate enough to put a consecutive hit streak together of say four in a row--then I want to win more than four base units. Then I can implement a MMM to increase MY Hold.

The key is to know ones own average hit rate % and average streak length per the number of wagers in our buyin.

re: asyms comments above on casinos high Hold rate.

I suspect many players get ahead first at least 10%--30% , maybe more, yet will bust (losing 110--130% of original buyin). I see some players get ahead >100% of buyin and lose to -0- with zero retention of their initial winnings.
Many players have no intention of winning >100% of buyin(BI) in a session when they initially buy in. I'm not against adding many small winning sessions totaling more than buyin if that is ones MO. However, in my opinion its easier to win an amount >=buyin (or even 50-70% of BI) by wagering larger bets(However one chooses to get them up to a larger level).

More later,

Note the third page down in the following link. I like to compare the casino Hold on various games.

NEVADA TABLE GAMES: HISTORICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE VARIATIONS


-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Many thanks to the following for sharing their research.

Citation:

Nevada Table Games: Historical Hold Variations. Las Vegas: Center for Gaming Research,
University Libraries, University of Nevada Las Vegas, 2023.

With A 1.15% H.E. Why Is Casino Hold  @ Baccarat ~~ 13%--25% Most Months??

Bac Hold %

Hi XXVV
Your paragraph above: "...A better strategy is to access substantial funds ( work or smart investments) and then utilise only 'free' money with which to play and gamble. That is the horse before the cart, and relief from a universe of sorrow and tears.

A $1000 investment in an appreciating smart stable coin with associated bank and credit line could return more than $100,000 within 2-3 years.

A $1000 roulette bank is lucky to survive a week in a casino...."

This makes my mind drift back to the wise words of my grrreeeaaattt Uncle Confucius:

"Grasshopper, friends don't let friends play roulette."




Continued Success,

Hi albalaha

Hope you're doing well.

re: "...Those who were skeptic of its growth have missed almost 90% growth when it was at $16,600 levels at 31st December 2022. It was near $20k in Ju.."


That would be me. I bought a small nonmeaningful amount of crypto (including Bitcoin) when Bitcoin had dropped from $60K+ down to the 20K level. IMO and based on my research/statistical analysis I projected Bitcoin would have difficulty getting past the 27K--28 range and actually thought it would stall there, retreat, then go higher than 28K in latter 2023 or 24.

I still think it is being artificially manipulated by a few large investors and we will see a pullback (much sooner than many think), mostly due to these larger investors. Not because its true value is fluctuating.
IMO these larger investors find it easier to make larger returns/quicker returns when its dropping or bouncing in a narrow range they have predetermined(See the large transactions when bouncing @ 16.5k--18k).

So my thinking is after several bounces cycles only then will we see it powering higher. I still do not like the valuation metrics for Bitcoin or any crypto. However, that doesn't mean it can't or won't go higher--or--that I may simply be wrong.
My next buy will be when it regresses to the 14K levels.


Alb, I hope you are correct/ good luck with it.


Continued Success,

Hi ADulay
Hope you're doing well.


"...what is the actual cost coming and going when buying gold?..."

Generally speaking, ~~(+4.5%) premium on the buy and ~~ (-0.0125%) on the sale (From a certified dealer). Premium meaning % above or below NY spot price). Based on a 1oz gold bar from an average-brand mint.

As you probably know the above premiums % will be lower on the "buy" for a larger denomination (e.g., 5oz or 10oz will have less buy-premium % and vice versa on a smaller bar such as a 1/2oz or 1/4oz bar will have a higher premium %).

For example, at today's gold price (4/16/23) of say $2004.00USD NY spot price one could buy a 1oz gold bar for 2093.00(+4.44%) and one could sell that same bar to the same dealer for 1979.00(-.0126%).

All other variables being equal the "buy" premium is typically less for Bars.
Bars% < Rounds < Coins



Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9--Interesting link. Unfortunately, I expect we will see many more crypto and crypto-related schemes.
One of several reasons why I prefer Gold as an investment vehicle.

Hi XXVV
I hope all is well. Great to hear from you again.


Continued Success,

Thx Victor
Glad to see forum maintenance finished and online again. It looks great.

Continued Success,

Good post.

"..You also have to have a certain amount of buy-in as a one-time event that is realistic as compared to your bankroll and a concrete refusal to buy-in a second time if you happened to lose the original buy-in amount.  That should be considered always 100% of the time, your stop loss figure.  This way when you win and apply something along the lines of my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd money management system,.."

For me personally the key to winning long term is how we handle the bold sentence above. The more often one plays the more imperative it is to have a solid "L" plan in place.


Continued Success,

As alrelax has mentioned the Tote Board is a great invention and designed to make players focus on the wrong type of outcomes: streaks. Red vs Blue, same-side streaks vs opps,...etc. Even the rectangular shape was clever.

I frequently have friends across the country that are well versed in games such as Texas Holdem, Poker-type games, Miss Stud,....etc. They have little knowledge of Bac but will walk through a table pit and snap a pic of a Bac Tote Board and send it to me and say something like: Mr Fu you would have scored a homerun on this streak.

The streak will always be a same-side streak or Opp streak. One in particular recently sent a
long P-streak of 12. However, what he didn't see was a perfect 3-1 streak(BBB P BBB P BBB P BBB) of 15 just before that and it was one that was easy to see at the beginning(if one was looking for a streak different than same-side or opps).


Continued Success,

Hi albalaha--You may be correct. Though my opinion differs.
In my opinion this hurdle above the current (3/21/23) range of 28.4k will be crucial and determine if it pulls back or continues. In my opinion it will pull back in the near future (caveat emptor my friend).

My research suggests the current price has been largely manipulated and "the big players" will tamp it back down to a lower range so they can pound the bounce and siphon money from "the small players".
There is evidence of this occurrence at several levels and most recently when it was in the 16.5--18.5 range. It is much easier to profit on the bounce/rebound in a defined range than to buy/hold.

This opinion above coupled with my theory that many additional banks (at least in the USA) are in bad shape and also exposed to crypto (directly and indirectly). Plus the USA Feds recently bailed them out(so they now have  more cash to put into hi-risk investments) creates a tumultuous environment for the near future.

My grreeaat uncle once told me, "Grasshopper: Friends don't let friends buy crypto."



Continued Success,

AsymBacGuy above in post #773.

"...Say that at a random coin flip succession you have to choose from one of those HTHHTT or HHHHHH pattern coming out first.
All intermediate patterns do not count, so you will win or lose just when one of the two patterns will show up first.
Different studies, albeit being made on different patterns lenght, have demonstrated that the former HTHHTT pattern will show up by a lesser 'waiting time' than the HHHHHH pattern, despite of having the same probability to appear.

So we do not know about all other patterns coming out, but we do know that we're favorite to first cross the HTHHTT pattern than the HHHHHH pattern, so in some way the 'waiting time' matters. ..."

I agree Asym and wait-time distance between shorter patterns are even more important IMO(as related to Bac). With that said I also think we need to be cautious when comparing a coin toss vs a near-5050 proposition such as so called even-chance games like Bac. Due mainly to how the casino treats a Push and Tie results, which obviously a coin toss has neither.


In my opinion one of the best pieces of research on coin tosses and similar probability events was written by a Dr. R.S. Nickerson back in early 2000s I believe. In part below (I will post whole article once we have capability to upload pics and such).


Reasoning about probabilities can be tricky. Some probability problems
are notoriously opaque, even occasionally for people well-versed in prob␂ability theory. Examples include
• the three-doors or car-or-goat problem ("the Monty Hall problem") [Vos
Savant 1990a; 1990b],
• the sibling-gender problem [Bar-Hillel and Falk 1982],
• the condemned-prisoner problem [Gardner 1961, 226–232],
• Bertrand's paradox [Nickerson 2005], and
• the exchange paradox (two-envelope problem) [Nickerson and Falk 2006].



The UMAP Journal 28 (4) (2007) 503–532. ␂c Copyright 2007 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use
is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial
advantage and that copies bear this notice.

https://www.thelines.com/best-march-madness-bracket-contests/#:~:text=5%20Best%20Free%20March%20Madness%20Bracket%20Contests%20For,ESPN%20Tournament%20Challenge%20...%206%20Honorable%20mentions%20

The Greatest Baccarat Wins of All Time
Place   Baccarat Player   Amount Won
1.   Group of Asian high rollers   $55 million
2.   Akio Kashiwagi   $15 million
3.   Lin Hasan   $12.9 million
4.   Phil Ivey   $9.6 million
5.   John W. Gates   $1 million
6.      Kung Fu Bac     Unknown

https://casinotalk.com/the-greatest-baccarat-wins-of-all-time/