8/12/23  Bitcoin @ 29,406 with a recent 90-Day @ (r= 26,649--31,603).

Recently the Larry Fink(Yes that's his last name), CEO of Blackrock(largest asset mgmt company ~~9Trillion), announces they have filed for a Bitcoin ETF.

I find this concerning on two fronts.

1) Just a few years ago Fink said Bitcoin was a fraud and mainly for money laundering:

"...Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO:

2017: Bitcoin is an index of money laundering.

2023: Bitcoin could revolutionize finance. Files for a Bitcoin ETF...."

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/07/07/blackrock-ceo-larry-finks-turnabout-on-bitcoin-elicits-cheers-skepticism-from-crypto-insiders/

2)USA vs Grayscale . An ETF was denied and currently being heard in court proceedings.

"US court questions SEC's rejection of Grayscale's bitcoin fund proposal"

https://www.reuters.com/legal/court-set-hear-arguments-grayscales-lawsuit-against-sec-over-bitcoin-fund-2023-03-07/

So now we have a U.S. and Biden administrations ally Blackrock and Larry Fink wanting a Bitcoin ETF.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/23/blackrocks-game-changing-bitcoin-etf-what-every-in/


In my opinion going forward we will see Bitcon being pumped up further until the ETF is approved and then a steep decline. The large investors (including countries) profiting greatly and the small investors losing.
I am not an investing expert and have been incorrect in past on bitcons price. I see the near future as a "pump and dump" situation. Though it may go skyhigh and many will make money from the volatility. I simply do not see the intrinsic value in Bitcon and still say "caveat emptor"

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=88f90e881fbfd4c7JmltdHM9MTY5MTc5ODQwMCZpZ3VpZD0zZTdhMmIzZS03MThmLTY2MTItMzk2OS0zOTVmNzU4ZjY4MmEmaW5zaWQ9NTY0NA&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=3e7a2b3e-718f-6612-3969-395f758f682a&u=a1L2ltYWdlcy9zZWFyY2g_cT1iaXRjb24gbW91c2UgdHJhcCBwaG90byZGT1JNPUlRRlJCQSZpZD1CRDkxOTQ1RkQ0NDBFNjc5QTI4Q0NGMzNFOThBNUMxOUNBODNBQjc1&ntb=1

Good Investing To All,kfb

Hi AsymBacGuy. Perfectly worded.

...So we know that 'tricks' oriented to get the least number of hands played per shoe and a fair probability of success utilized will both enhance the overall winning process.

...More importantly, when the average betting frequency is quite low and the probability of success is greater than 50%, 'best scenario' shoes will surely happen by defined long term probabilities.
Now we have reasons to set up a positive progressive betting plan as sooner or later such scenario will happen.


...Of course, shorter is the positive streak we should aim for, higher will be our winning probability and lighter is the positive progression greater will be the probability to be ahead even if the winning streak fails at some point before the end of the shoe.

Great book/collectors' piece. I like Alan Dershowitz.

"...Nothing to beat the house ITLR...."

     I disagree.
Meaning win more $ than one loses. I believe one can even accomplish the above winning fewer decisions that losses. I see /play with several daily players that accomplish this more days than not. However, it typically isn't due to some wizardly bet selection methodology. Certainly not with a preplanned mechanical bet placement,...etc. . Mostly with money management and discipline (and most importantly handling losing sessions).

Nothing MECHANICAL to beat the house ITLR
     I agree to a certain extent. Almost impossible with a mechanical placement of wagers.

For one to beat the house ITLR the key is to choose a range of Variance and not try to win every extreme string of outcomes.  In other words what is doable within ones bankroll/buyin size/emotional stress tolerance. However, many players try to design a plan that wins every time and never loses. that's the nemesis of many players, IMO. Especially if one chooses a mechanical system.

"...There is no secret, magical, developed, mathematical or scientific protocol-formula or procedures for winning at any casino game that will guarantee wins each and every time you sit down by employing them.  Period! ..."

I concur.

Along the same line of thinking as what alrelax noted above. The following are the exact words from some of the advertisements from Bac system sellers, youtubers, book authors, ...etc.

*This System Is So Strong That Anyone Using It Can Turn $25 Into $50,000 in Just Two Days!

*It is Virtually Foolproof with a Simple Winning Formula That Rolls Over Every Version of Baccarat Offered Today!

*Want Proof?

In 10,760 Games Played by Real Players Just Like You Target Baccarat Won 100% of the Time.

*Imagine a system that was so good that you could wrap up a winning game every four bets!

*This system is so powerful that if you can risk even $25 you can win $50,000 in the next 18 hours.
I am so confident of your success that I will even send you the exact plan our players are using to win $50,000 every two days with my 100% Guarantee of Your Success!
If you are ready to win at least $1,000 an hour without leaving home in what has been called "the ultimate home-based business" I will show you how!



Right about here I started having my suspicions, lol.



My thoughts on the sellers /their promises: If it works so well why not go do every single day for 12-14 hours a day. Why take time to write a book, sell the book,  or sell the system to total strangers,..etc.

That would be analogous to discovering an expert method day trading in the stock market and then saying--"Nah I think I'll just keep my 8-5 for minimum wage. I don't want to make too much too fast,..etc". Then have to hassle with buying larger house(s), swapping out limousines,...etc.



Continued success,

Thx Asym for answering my question above in post#847. That makes sense.

Also, you mentioned: "...You can't do nothing when your B 5 point will succumb vs a 3 P point catching a 3 third card, or when your P 7 point will lose to a B 3 point drawing a 5 as third card.  ..."

My Q: Do you have any thoughts when B wins with one of its key favored hands: Drawing a two-card five/ choosing to not draw that third card, and getting the W.

    ?So do you view the remainder of the shoe as: There is now one less "two-card five scenario" available for B ?? 
"OR"  other viewpoints for the remainder of shoe re:  that "B two-card five scenario"


Thx in advance,kfb

Congratulations on the solid W.

"So I say, let's all name as many famous movie quotes and whom they are from within 5 minutes each without stalling and the winner, second and third runner up pays nothing for dinner and drinks.  The other two pay the entire bill.  We all agree."...
"...I got second place..."

Im always cautious when someone proposes a unique betting opportunity, LOL. I would have finished last in your "movie quotes" competition.


Continued Success,

alrelax:
"Understand winning and how it comes, why it came, why it doesn't and most of all, how to apply it to your Money Management Method"

I agree--its all about money management. Much of what we do when assessing wins/losses long term is based on when we take the short-term snapshots of our lifetime movie of betting.

In the short-term that snapshot after a winning streak looks great and the opposite if the snapshot is taken just after a losing streak. We shall have both. The key is to have something to show for the Win Streaks, as well as do not dwell on the L Streaks.

The winning is often more difficult to manage because we have to make decisions re: how we are going to parse the just won monies. Our MM should be predetermined and rock solid based on ones specific objectives. After the Losing sessions the casino is applying their MM.

We don't want to make ourselves "rewin" the just-won money again. In other words, don't play back 100% of our just-won money. Otherwise, we are just playing an endless/vicious cycling of money game. The casino will gladly do that all day long repeatedly siphoning out their 2%.


Continued Success,

Im thinking the casino employee(s) should have seen a couple red flags when "The 23-year old Gutierrez" presented himself as the hotel owner. Is it possible a couple accomplices helped this intellectual sleuth???  Cmon man.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/las-vegas-hotel-impersonation/2023/06/27/id/1125098/

Thanks AsymBacGuy--Good points.


"...But at the end the player capable to spot more 'higher' two-card initial points than average will get a sure advantage and this task could only be estimated by the average lenght of 'shifting' situations, that is the number of runs...."

Can you clarify (or give an example) as I'm not clear on what you're saying.

Thanks in advance,

Good article. The gentleman you referenced above had the right idea (Just not a well-formed plan or obviously not a preplanned plan).




Continued Success,

LOL, Yeah I thought my bac comrades would like that 

Ok/thx alrelax for prompt reply. Everything worked perfectly.

To clarify my above post: Upon clicking on the MORE button, then click on MODIFY, then edit,add, or whatever u want to the initial post.


Cheers,

As I mentioned in above TR. I went /picked up the newly ordered BacMobile today in Dallas,Texas,USA(Approx 6hours each way for me).

I typically don't travel to the Southern edge of Oklahoma(Texas border) to play Bac. However, I thought I would stop by at Winstar (Chickasaw tribe) and play a couple hours on the way back from Dallas.

*Winstar in OK, and the Choctaw casino(Durant,OK) are two of the top four largest casinos in the world.

I was ahead of schedule all day(Car was prepped /ready for me), stopped back by one of my favorite steak joints in Texas(Texas Roadhouse) and enjoyed a great Porter house steak. All good.

Then I had the great idea I would take a few pics of the car after finishing at the restaurant(as I figured by the time  I arrived home tonight it would have bugs on the grill/front end, road grime,...etc.
Well, I squatted down to take some pics level with the car tag and completely split my slacks in the back,LOL. So, no Bac at the Winstar cas this afternoon.  Oh well. Otherwise, a great day.


Continued Success To All,

I "think" the edit /upload pics feature is temporarily disabled while Vic is doing upgrade. I tried to upload a pic and had issues. Prior to the last few days we could post an item and if we needed to edit or add a pic we could A)Open initial post, and B) click on the  MORE button to the Right-Bottom of the initial post and then see that option(i.e., To edit or add pic).

Maybe Vic or alrelax will chime in here.


Continued Success,

as:
"...In a word, when we win 'too much' after one shoe or few shoes dealt, it's because we benefited from the chance and not for being smart.
 

And no one ploy in the world could prevent to get, sooner or later, a perfect symmetrical losing situation of the same density, moreover aggravated by the HE...."

I agree. Its this "tightness" in Bac that makes it a superior game to other even-chance games. Plus we may receive that winning situation first (regardless of ones skill or lack of).


Continued Success,