AsymBacGuy

"...yet even at a 50/50 coin flip situation some patterns are proven to show up first than others (Konold, Nickerson, etc)..."

A large part of my game is based on this concept. Along with compounding.

Thanks for referencing Nickerson above. Im more familiar with Nickerson than Konold. Both great researchers. I actually communicated with Nickerson via email a few years back regarding some of his other unrelated research.

Though he is now getting up in years. He was very prompt in responding and seemed like a super nice guy. I "think" he retired in early 2000 or so.

Of course, like many scientists that publish something about a coin flip or HT results they probably didn't anticipate Baccarat players would be reading/studying their fine research.


Continued Success,

Good explanation Gizmotron. Good clarity on explaining the progression.
Im always an advocate for a pospro as one can erase many base unit misses with a small clump of Ws.
Is the Nathan Detroit poster u mention a book author or youtuber?? as I couldn't find him.



Continued Success,

"I'm on such a bad losing streak that if I was around then, I would have taken Colonel Custer and given points"

https://www.fox5vegas.com/2023/06/19/caesars-guest-wins-three-jackpots-worth-1-million-48-hours/

Interesting read.

"...Neutralism

After much thought, strong reading, thinking, playing, looking back with total open mind, I have finally realized the ultra importance of true neutralism...."

Great theory though easier said than done.
IMO its very difficult for one to achieve perfect 100% neutralism at the Bac table. In part because it is in itself a subjective term (meaning can't be quantified with 100% certainty), by a consensus or majority.

Also, because I perceive many Bac players initially learned from different sources early in their careers and these sources influenced ones first playing style: (Books, Super systems, Buddies, YouTube, Listening to other experts at the table, Big win, Media, Gambling forums,...etc).
So each player at the table is viewing (interpreting) the results from a different viewpoint.

Some of these aforementioned sources were likely helpful though some likely continue to contaminate one's decision-making skillset at the table. I would guess very few of these early sources focused on neutralism.

I do think we can all improve our decisions and "neutrality mindset" at the table and attempting to approach 100% neutralism is a worthwhile goal, though extremely difficult.




More later,

Thanks Vic  / Same wishes to all.

"A skilled gambler makes the most of it when he has the best of it"

Mason Malmuth (Author of Gambling for a Living: How to Make $100,000 a Year, Gambling Theory, et al must-read books for the serious player)

This is a great casino in Black Hawk, Colorado, USA. Great casino destination in an old gold mining town. Approx 25 casinos together between adjoining towns Black Hawk/ Central City. I have played at Monarch many times. Though my wins were <= $500K, as best I recall.

https://krdo.com/news/2023/03/28/black-hawk-casino-heist-is-largest-in-colorado-history/




Continued Success,

Hi AS --good essay

"..Splitting outcomes in four 'events' categories was just an example, we have learnt that an asymmetrical (and unrandom) system remains asymmetrical independently of the precise spot chosen to be bet or considered.
For example, if the previous shoe had dealt a L in the examined spot, odds remain to make more probable a W than another L and the same is true about a single W towards getting another W (so forming a W cluster)...."[/color]

Can u elaborate on this part. Thx in advance.


Continued Success,

Good exchange of info/intel

Good essay alrelax.

I agree with most of it.

"...Of course, without a doubt we desire the maximum. But you must realize when and why to increase or decrease your wagering.  Along with that, you have to understand there is a pathway to and from the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering at the table...."

Its important to "Know Thyself".

For example: If I buy in for $____ and divide into ____individual wagers, then what is the average probability I can win three consecutive wagers before I exhaust my number of tries(wagers),...etc or whatever you want to plug into the above.

Is my personal probability greater than average?

What % of my sessions do I hit my _____ goal? If so can I start with fewer and larger wagers and still hit my win goal > 50% of sessions?? ....etc.


It all starts with clearly defined (& designed goals), and then a realistic workable plan.

For example, If I approach a 2k table max table /buy in for 2k and have a base unit size of 60, with a goal: I shall win >=four consecutive wagers (not necessarily 4iar same events) doing a full press or parlay+ pospro before I lose all my tries(wagers). That is realistic and I know I will accomplish that task greater than 50% of my attempts.
 
However, If I walk up to the same table with the same parameters above with a goal: I want to win a bunch of money, so I think I'll just full press any win ten times, color up, and go home. That is unrealistic because I know thyself(myself) and can look at my previous results and calculate or at least estimate the likelihood of success or failure.


Many players do not clearly know what they want to accomplish at that session (or if they do have a target its often unrealistic and or the design of ones plan doesn't fit the target). So the probability of success is minimal.


"...Along with that, you have to understand there is a pathway to and from the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering at the table...."


     To my thinking, it is optimum to always start ones wager above the minimum (more options), regardless of if it is a Win or a loss.
For example, if table min is $50 and one is considering wagering table minimum then my preference would be to start wagering greater than 50 or say at least $60. This way we at least have the option to reduce to 55 or 50. Since Im mostly a pospro player that typically isn't an issue. However, I find it helpful to have more options vs fewer options.

re: "..minimum average and maximum wagering at the table.."

I find it helpful to know where my wager will be at least three to five Wins(or losses) down the road in my wagering regime.



More later,

AsymBacGuy:

"... in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability.

Obviously in some way such statement must negate the perfect 'independence' of the outcomes, yet we've seen that even at coin flip successions where itlr A=B, some A patterns are more probable to come out first than some B patterns..."

Finite/ Order

I find the concepts of the two words in bold very important for how we should view the overall outcomes. Its good for us to understand the finiteness(I call it approaching limits) of outcomes. Just as importantly the order( If an outcome occurs First), yet the total outcomes may still be near even. The order of events are very important.




Continued Success,

This has alrelax written all over it  .

"...The Gaming Streaming/Video/Photo Policy is launching for the Nevada properties in May 2023," the memo shared. "The new policy is aimed at allowing our guests to take photos and videos, and, when appropriate, to share that content in real or in near real-time via social media broadcasts..."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/mgm-makes-surprising-las-vegas-strip-gambling-change/ar-AA1c6EXJ



Continued Success,

Thx alrelax for your prompt reply.

I agree with your opinion Gizmotron.

This is very concerning (though not surprising). I've always been a little paranoid to gamble online though I know a few people that have been successful.

"...Originally started as a Graphical User Interface for Panorama Tools (hence the name), PTGui has evolved into a full featured, industry leading photo stitching application.  Take roulette for example.  We can have a series of 35 dealer initiated spins and instantly while appearing legitimately, allowing the outcome to be our chosen result. ..."


Strong words from an insider. The evidence is difficult to refute.

I avoid slot machines and avoid most e machines. Many of my states 120+ casinos only allow one to play their freeplay on slots or emachines(such as eCraps by Interblock or eRoulette by Evolution).

A friend was playing the eCraps(by interblock). It is the one with the slender cylindrical glass capsule with two small dice where one is not playing with other players. Anyway, he built a profit of +$70,000 in approx 3months--then it was wiped away (+additional  -12K) in approx 2mo,....etc.
I had warned him it was simply a slot machine with a craps cabinet. He disagreed as it was his opinion they had no method to control the dice.  He was mostly wagering a steep Marty for 3 steps. Also, one can get a roll approx every 8-10seconds. A very dangerous combination.



Continued Success,

https://www.casino.org/news/busting-vegas-myths-casinos-pump-in-extra-oxygen/