Thx ABG. A lot of good points(as always).
ABG:
in part,

"...This is a very simplified list to look for:

1) Consider baccarat ranges just in terms of 1s, 2s and 3s. An exception is displayed later.

2) When in doubt or unless your strategy dictates to bet B to form or limit some patterns, do not bet a dime at Banker side as you'll be 11.62:1 underdog to cross through an asymmetrical hand favoring B).
It's true that it's more likely to encounter long B streaks than long P streaks but itlr such attempts are worthless.

3) Besides side bets, the only edge we can rely upon to beat baccarat is exploting the 'clustering effect'.
Math 'experts' will teach us that this effect will be proportionally distributed with opposite (losing) situations but they are deadly wrong.

4) The clustering effect must be exploited either by a simple 1-level back-to-back property or by concidentally betting an already moderate or long 'same events' sequence. Of course at both scenarios the main aim to look for is just one win (what baccarat pros do).

5) Many sections of the shoe are unplayable and this doesn't necessarily mean that after a given series of unplayable sections a kind of favourable opportunites will arise.
Do not rule out the possibility that cards are so whimsically arranged to get few clustered profitable events and the idea to bet on such 'unwanted' scenarios is out of order.

6) Always take into account the doubles or 3s pace of apparition considered at various portions of the shoe and in relationship of their average final value.
Of course singles make a huge impact of such doubles or 3s gaps.

7) A corollary of the #1 point, it's a kind of another invincible plan:
Set up two different random walks (SRW) applied at streaks clusters of precise lenght.
SRW #1 bets toward doubles and triples (exact triples) clustered at a given level, so any 3+ streak is a sort of boundary.
SRW #2 bets toward exact triples and 4 streaks clustered at a given level getting as 'boundary' any 4+ streak.
..."

Re: #2 above and specifically this part. Can you give an example or clarify/thx in advance.

"2) When in doubt or unless your strategy dictates to bet B to form or limit some patterns, do not bet a dime at Banker side as you'll be 11.62:1 underdog to cross through an asymmetrical hand favoring B).

Continued Success,

Good day to all my bac comrades

alrelax
in part
"...But if you really desire to find a decent wagering method that has control built into it, the following has done extremely well for me over the past years.

1-3-2-6 or 1-3-2-4.  Coupled with my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, application of your separated wins and playing that out...."

In my mind the following is the absolute most important. Because we will all win some and lose some regardless of our chosen wagering regime. The wagering regimes are as varied as the players:
1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, application of your separated wins and playing that out.
that's the Bottomline regardless of our chosen wagering regime. In other words doNOT rebet all of our win monies back through. Only win our won money once.

ABG:
in part
"...I have an idea in order to lower the unit disboursement.
Instead of using full amounts, why not adding a proportional percentage your Plan dictates?
So instead of 3, let's add a 30%,  20% for 2 and so on.
Now your bets are:
$100, $130, $120 and $160.

Imo surviving takes a primary role over the urge of winning fast. ..."

ABG--i agree with your proposal IF ones goal is to "survive". I think the key is "What is ones objective". re: survival--albalaha did a lot of research in this area and many of his post in past couple years would lean toward your suggestion(pressing/regressing a much smaller %), which indeed will help one "survive". For those interested just search the forum as he (albalaha) was nice enough to share years of research in this area of study (i.e., surviving huge swings in Variance)

My opinion differs a little from asymbacguy general suggestion above as although I do indeed want to survive and give myself a fair number of attempts. I also know that I will easily see (-2SD or +2SD) sway in results in my average session size of decisions. My objective leans more toward: If I see (say -2.5-- -3.5SD-- 5SD,...etc) then my buyin is being stressed and I will bust (but only lose ONE buyin). However,if (when) I am fortunate enough to see lets say >= +1.5SD-- +2.5SD , then I will make >= 1.0 buyins and maybe even >3-5 buyins occasionally , on a single buyin .

It obviously is nice when I receive the latter scenario prior to the first.

To each their own

Continued Success,kfb

"Only win our won money once"

Hi Toby

I have not tried it.

Arbitrage betting tips

Keeping track of your transactions is advisable.
Have many accounts with a variety of bookmakers.
Creating a spreadsheet to monitor your transactions is a good idea.
Use a professional surebet finder software.
Another piece of advice is to double check the odds before placing both sides of the bet.
It is very common for odds to fluctuate, particularly in a popular event or if an event is about to start.
The margins can be very tight when arbitrage betting and potential profit can soon be wiped out by failing to spot a shift in price.


Continued Success,

I copied/pasted instead of full hyperlink as link came from advertisement for online gaming site.

Personally I prefer Bellagio though often play the most at whichever cas is providing my free lodging.

?Which casino do you prefer? and why?

Thx in advance for you reply.kfb
_________________________________________________________________________


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Red Rock
Red Rock
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Thx AsymBacGuy
I appreciate the elaborate details and refresher on unb1. Several nuggets in your essay.

I like this approach: "... Simplifying, we'll set up a two events vs one strategy, where one event remains as a steady winner (singles) at the same time confiding that specific streaks (doubles or 3+ streaks) will come out clustered at least for 1 point along the way.   ...."


"...When the number of singles is roaming around averages or slightly below averages and unless a long singles streak happened right at the start of the shoe, the number of 1 - (2-3) permutations makes this plan invincible as a possible '2/3+ streaks' hopping needs a kind of 'perfect unlikely' pace to show up...."


IMO even when the long singles streak shows at the start we often can get into anticipatory mode / still exploit. In other words by utilizing that as a signal as to what potentially could show next(meaning NOT singles). In my experience when we see anything to an extreme we should start looking for NOT that in the upcoming section or sections. I think most will agree its never guaranteed but the probability does indeed shift a little for events different than whatever the most recent extreme group of events.

Thx again ABG as a lot of good material above.

https://www.casino.org/news/macau-casinos-to-reopen-saturday-gaming-designated-essential/


Zeroing out 'Zero Covid'

Thx for post GordonReid. that's very interesting.

I look forward to your updates.

Thx for post abg.

RE: "So far I've described the tools to look for such clustered events, best no-brainer approach is to adopt my unb plan #1 taken as a whole or splitted into two B and P different lines.
The same about derived roads...."

This phrase and specifically the part in bold is not clear. I know u have written numerous times about unb#1. However, Im not clear what u mean :~~  "split into two B and P differnt lines."

You might also give a specific example of how u play(meaning wager)  unb#1,  as a refresher for us.
/thx in advance.

Thx ABG

"6) To eventually win a lot of money, we must be willing to put a large part or the entire part of our stake at risk at the possible favorite opportunities, maybe by betting a two-step 1/3 then 2/3 wager.
It's a sound math move as a 0.75% probability cannot be silent for long and of course casinos are more worried about an i.di.ot betting huge few times then by facing 'wise' players betting light-moderate sums for long.

7) At baccarat we can't bluff to win, yet baccarat patterns must take a more likely line sooner or later.
It's just a matter of time (time!) that 0.75% probability events will produce univocal steady lines.

Baccarat is the second best game to play in a casino, having the least unfavourable negative edge. Featuring the luxury to bet the side we wish anytime we wish.

Next how to play a given bankroll as a poker tournament buy-in.
..."



It's a sound math move as a 0.75% probability cannot be silent for long and of course casinos are more worried about an i.di.ot betting huge few times then by facing 'wise' players betting light-moderate sums for long.

     I agree

More later on this/look forward to next installment.


Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9 for posts.

It will be interesting to see if governments try to prosecute the crypto Cos that purposefully misled investors. This was such a new entity that most governments didn't even have a department, policy, laws,..etc.  I doubt governments will pursue to prosecute unless they perceive a possible confiscation of assets(If assets can even be located).

This whole thing really mimics the dot.com hype/destruction 20 years ago. So many companies were trying to get the words: Dot or Com in their name. Similar to now when many crypto companies tried to get the words: Bit, Coin, and Crypto into their name. Not so much now.


Probably a lot of consolidation going forward. The surviving crypto/crypto related companies certainly have a blue print going forward(on what not to do). Several unchecked boxes for the whole industry in upcoming decade. The more
healthy/legitimate companies will check the boxes.

Trust: unchecked
Transaction Anonymity: unchecked
Non Traceable: unchecked
Pegged to Intrinsically Valued Asset(& Verifiable): unchecked

A lot of opportunities in the field going forward as IMO many countries and the financial industry as a whole will continue moving toward a digital currency. The blockchain and similar technology will lend itself to this transition.

Just my thoughts and I may very well be incorrect and certainly Non informed.



Hopefully XXVV will chime in /offer his informed opinions and experience in all things crypto.




Continued Success,

Excellent list above ABG.

re: List (a--g) and I agree wholeheartedly with most of them.

"a) play baccarat only when you hope to transform your bankroll (before finishing it) into at least a 10x or 20x or more accomplishment, providing a proper amount of time employed at the tables."
     IMO we need to win at least 12x our avg buyin every once in a while, not necessarily in a single shoe but across several shoes(meaning 1 buyin generates >=12x said buyin, prior to buyin dying),  as -Variance and the natural volatility is always present /grinding us down. I'm not saying shoot-for-the-moon every shoe or session, however, when it is there we must pounce.

"b) defend your fkng bankroll at all costs, avoiding the most part of st.u.pid coin flip confrontations"
     I agree for the most part, however, my personal opinion may differ some on this. IMO we must defend our bankroll--Yes. However, there is a fine line between defending our bankroll, and squeezing it so hard we don't allow ourselves to really go for it(When the opportunity presents), all because we are too stingy and not willing to risk said Buyin. Yes, we will have a higher shoe win percentage, however, we may also have a smaller ROI.

     This is an area I erred in when I first started gambling. Yes I had a win % >=90% by shoe. However, there were shoes I should have made >= 3-5x my buyin, easily.
One shoe I still kick myself as it only had 1(one) 3iar (ppp), the whole shoe. That ppp was near the end. So no BBB or 3iar Opp the whole shoe , with may ties. I was "guarding" my buyin (I think was $2K) by wagering ($30-40-50, down to $30) betting for B streaks. A predetermined JackArse plan I probably read in a book by some famous/expert gambler--I mean author.
I try not to think about it much as I would need to undergo therapy,lol.


thx again abg,

Bump this essay by alrelax.

Good to read or reread. Novice or veteran this is so important for all of us. Make sure you click on the link at the end too.
I really like the sentence at the very end.

A business plan of action or Money Management Method is so very important for all things gambling.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


IMO we should design a gambling plan/ it should be similar to running a small business. It has one employee (Me) and should have a predetermined business model or plan. One of the main criteria for my business is to buy inventory and sell said inventory for more than I paid. This is obviously a top criterion for any business regardless of if one is selling gold bars, burgers, hammers, computers, ...etc.


If I go to the local casino, hand the dealer $2000 dollars in hundreds, they count out 20 black chips, then I just bought my inventory. My main criteria are: How can I sell these 20 black chips back to the casino for greater than $100 each and totaling more than $2000.
Our business model (wager size, pressing, regressing, ...etc.) should be mostly automated and predetermined. The main variable that often can't (or shouldn't) be predetermined is bet selection. Our experience(skillset) and this specific shoe profile should primarily dictate how/where we make our bet selection. 

The casino will immediately buy back my inventory for exactly what I purchased: $2000. However, I can't make a living buying inventory for $2000 and selling for $2000. I have overhead (gas, auto maintenance, food,etc, also my time has value). So, my objective is to figure out a method for selling all of my chips back individually for more than my avg cost, or sell maybe 4-5 back to them for a total >Cost($2000), or sell at least one back to them for greater than my initial cost of $2000. This is a good deal for me as I get some options.

The casino has agreed to buy my chips(inventory) 24/7 so I get to choose when to sell. They will buy back in any form, though this form is preset by casino (Green,white,red,orange,black,purple,...etc). This is also a good deal for me as I get some options on how to package my inventory--e.g., I can make one wager for $2000, 20 wagers @ $100, 80 @ $25,...etc, Whatever I want.
Advantage KungFuBac.

The cas will get to buy some back for basically ($0) when that black chip lost on its first attempt, a good deal for them (as all they had to do is show they have matching collateral or credit), matching the value written on that little wood chip. Now after only one transaction(attempt) they get to resell that same chip to someone else for the exact same price. A good deal for them.

The longer I play the cas will get to buy some back for approx. ($98.80), when I win on first attempt and lose the same exact bet on second attempt, over just a few transactions they will get them back at this little discount. A good deal for them.

However, what if I get 5/20 of the black chips to generate a total of say $2500(500 avg)  prior to losing and going back to the dealer's rack. Maybe I can get one black chip to generate say $4500 prior to losing and going back to the dealer's rack.

Now let's say I now decide to use 25/45 of these won black chips out of the 45 chips (some have to be used for expenses, surprises, addition to bankroll, addendum buyins, ...etc.). So now I have 25 black chips(inventory--warriors) going out to do battle on my next shoe. Each $100 warrior will have one goal and assignment: Go out and do battle and bring back more than $100, or die trying. Then as I send them out individually, I give the command: Go Bold or Don't Go at All).



So regardless of how my business model produces a profit it must produce a +profit more times than not or my store will be forced to close. So, I better have sufficient start-up cash(inventory), coupled with a proven business model (i.e., Money Management). Because I know with great certainty, I will have slow days and slow weeks, and I'm optimistic that I won't have many (or any) slow month(s).



"When it is there, realize it; when it is not do not attempt to make it happen.  That is where we all have gone and go wrong".
                                                                                                                                                                   alrelax


Continued Success To All, kfb

Hi all/ hope my fellow Americans had a great July 4th celebration for Independence Day. USA-USA-USA 

Good discussion alrelax and ABG

ABG: "... Mathematicians consider bac outcomes as a endless succession of EV- spots, so assuming that every bet will be EV- no matter what.
This is a strong fkng unbelievable sh.it as EV+ or EV- spots move around dynamical probabilities coming out from the actual card distribution getting well determined sd limits per shoe.  ..."


Alrelax: "...Wagering heavy, large and consistently on whatever is winning (any pattern/trends/presentments that you can identify and side with) is the absolute key in the game of baccarat.    ..."

Both of your comments remind me of a statement I read on the forum a year or so back. I "think" it was forum veteran Gizmotron. Although he had many good thoughts on roulette, bac, et al even-chance wagers, the following statement is something I keep in the back of my mind as I start every new bac shoe.

To Paraphrase.  "Always bet on the best trend."

that's it. Very simplistic.

However, IMO hugely important as we will frequently see /interpret at least two trends occurring greater than expectation. Choose the BEST trend that is happening right now and follow it til it ends. Then STOP and start looking for a different one that may now become the new BEST trend.

An example I saw yesterday. This was at the very beginning of the shoe. Typically I start every shoe by waiting on the shoe to show the first outcome, the other side, then show the initial side once again, prior to considering my first wager. I may watch many more outcomes but I at least wait for the above.

The shoe started:

BT P B PP B PPP B P B P B PP   . At first glance we could easily see a couple wagering opportunities.

I considered betting for another P Win on the next P column following the PPP. However, the BEST trend thus far was B1 followed by a P once and wait for another B, and wager P for once, wait for a B,...etc.  The above pattern then continued on with BPBPBP and then it ended .  So see a B wager P once had a streak of nine(9iar). I was fortunate and picked up seven  of the nine hits.

Simply by following the BEST trend.

As I think most of u will agree: Sometimes there will also be times when there is no Best trend and only good/better trends. Im always cautious when no BEST(strong) trend has shown because if Im  too eager to wager its easy to  interpret that good or better trend as a BEST when it was really mediocre but because the shoe has been so non eventful we may erroneously perceive any trend as being bet worthy. 




Continued Success,

Thx ABG /alrelax

Excellent  discussion/i will submit a couple followup thoughts/Q later tonight.



Continued Success,

Gd Morning 8OR9/thx.. Good read in  your last reply re:Bankman-Fried article.

In part: "...Nearly $2 trillion in crypto market value has evaporated since November. Two bellwether digital assets Luna, a $40 billion crypto asset associated with TerraUSD, a $16 billion stablecoin designed to maintain parity with the U.S. dollar, have collapsed. Earlier this month bitcoin traded for below $20,000, its lowest level since December 2020.

But the fallout is far from complete. Earlier this month, Singapore-based Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a highly levered crypto trading firm with $200 million of exposure to Luna revealed that it was nearly insolvent...."

and then :

"...the two digital asset exchanges turned to billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of FTX and the richest person in crypto, worth some $20.5 billion. Between FTX and his quantitative trading firm Alameda, he provided the companies with $750 million in credit lines. There is no guarantee that Bankman-Fried will recoup his investment. "You know, we're willing to do a somewhat bad deal here, if that's what it takes to sort of stabilize things and protect customers," he says.

"We're willing to do a somewhat bad deal here, if that's what it takes to sort of stabilize things...."[/b]

???SMH--If Im on a deserted island with no forms of media available and all of a sudden, the above articles floats upon the shore in a bottle--my first thought would be WHEN did Bankman-Fried short the crypto markets. lol.

------------------------------------------------------------------


Going forward and on a more positive note I would think this cleansing of weak and or fabricated Crypto Co. is exactly what the industry/ higher quality crypto-related co want.

I feel the "blockchain & related innovations" are here to stay. However, just because one buys bitcoin or other crypto companies does not mean one is necessarily investing in this future technology for doing financial transactions. In other words, If I buy bitcoin I do not receive a royalty every time someone uses a blockchain type transaction.

Right now, if I make a financial transaction with Visa and Transunion, several entities are receiving a cut from that 3.5% transaction fee. At the moment no one entity owns the one-and-only patent for crypto transactions. IOW Bitcoin owners are not making any money when I buy something with Bitcoin et al cryptos.


My opinion that "blockchain and related technology that will be developed", is here to stay is based in part to the following ideas (Just my opinions of course):

A)     Big banks and the financial industry have or are filing for the majority of patents related to this type of transactions (i.e., blockchain).

B)     The world (especially the east and very poor countries with a devalued currency) are working toward an international currency that is not totally reliant upon the USD (Pegged to USD). IMO the USD has benefitted a lot over past seven decades (post WWII) to not only being the most stable worldwide currency but in part due to it being the least-bad or least-weak currency. After the USD departed its pegging with silver (1960s) and gold(70s) one cannot ignore and certainly recognizes the erosion from inflation. However, all things considered it was indeed and still is the most stable vs any other one currency.

IMO the USD will never be completely replaced. However, I think within the next one to two decades we will see an international currency become available.

This new currency or basket-type currency for doing transactions will lend itself to the blockchain type technology. Thus, the residual companies like Bitcoin and Meta1 that survive the current anti-crypto onslaught will be in a perfect position for a part in this new global thinking.

This basket will likely involve some form of blockchain-type technology (maybe Bitcoin or similar) that is accepted in most countries. My thinking is that it will likely be tied to Gold,USD, Oil, Yuan and maybe a couple other forms of currency that has trust /global value, but most importantly, verified for its true daily value. This new form of financial transactions will be an improvement for countries with a weak currency, that may have other valuable resources: Oil, minerals,...etc, and
not-as-good for countries with a currently-perceived strong currency(Think USA /the USD, China/the Yuan,..etc).


You heard it here first. The new motto for Betselection.cc   : Tomorrows News Today.


Continued Success To All,