Hi Albalaha

"Do not forget one peculiar thing about bitcoin. It was the pioneer, and all other coins are altcoins."

I agree and think that is an important attribute. Similar to Twitter, or the first cell-phone company tower in an area, or the first cable/internet company that dug a ditch through our back yard....etc.  The first or incumbent company not only enjoys the name or brand recognition but typically has many other advantages going forward.

"n every halving, bitcoin reached a new all-time high that is usually at least 50% up from the last run highest. 2024 is the year of bitcoin halving. "

     I would agree that 2024 may but not in 2023. I think if we spread out the chart above, we will see Bitcoin is actually still in a bear market. Though I do agree it has approached a key metric in the past few days. My technical charts suggest it will need to increase 2-3K more from current levels in the very near future to clear this hurdle. I may be wrong but view this recent uptick as a fake out.

Caveat emptor.


Continued Success,

Hi Asymbacguy

In your post #751 above:

"Of course and as already sayed, single shoe productions are finite so anytime a more likely value or class of values are surpassed, we better consider the room left to get the more likely events coming out...."

I agree and like how you worded this. My personal view is that no matter what we choose to track in a single shoe it is finite and should be treated as always approaching a limit.

For example, let say we are charting or tracking "n": P/B, 2/2s, 1/2s,1/3s,the 8 card,...etc  Fill In The Blank, and as soon as "n" occurs for the first time, there are now only "n-1" remaining in that shoe.

We don't know exactly (though the laws of probability help guide us), what we do know is there is now one less and we just missed number one. Obviously, we still don't know exactly how many will present due to cut and residual cards at the end.
Yes, and this could be that one shoe where an extreme number for a specific multi-card pattern far greater than expectation presents. However, we do know there is now only "n-1" of that just-presented outcome available.
Plus, other patterns with similar-probability or greater-probability, that have NOT had one "n" removed yet, are still just as determined to present at >=their expected levels with less distance now available.

From the cut card onward every card, suite, pattern,  starts becoming n-1,n-2, ...etc as we cycle through the shoe.


Continued Success,

Hi 8OR9

Good links above.

Your statement: "I only wonder how much money he has rat holed away in Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, or buried in his back yard etc etc etc."


Spot on. I have made this exact statement several times recently. Furthermore, I think we will see later on that many other people were also on Team FTX from the beginning. This affected far more people than Bernie Made-Off and Enron scams.


Continued Success.

Hi albalaah

Good chart/ interesting.

"Predictions say that it will see all time high in 2024 again. Presently, it is sinking day by day. Is it right time to pour some money?"

My research suggest this recent uptick for Bitcoin is only temporary and we will actually see <=14k levels <= 12/2024.

*Personally I think the blockchain technology is great going forward. However, I don't perceive that owning the actual crypto such as Bitcoin as being the optimum way to invest in this technology.


Continued Success,

This will be good for the overall NYC economy (at least short term)/likely to overflow into the other boroughs of NYC (the good and the bad). Im sure the Fifth Avenue merchants are excited.

Overall bad for the AC market and I expect the (AC) casinos will continue with their self-induced destruction. Maybe Im wrong. We shall see.

I wish both markets continued success.

Hi 8OR9

I like your statement:
"...I think if you have developed a bac method which can turn a negative -1.2 expectation in bac to a positive expectation of about  1.5 % or 2%, or can generate a 1.5 to 2 unit win per shoe over a very large sample size, then I would use a simple conservative          % of bankroll method to bet..."

     Personally, I think it's doable (i.e., an advantage approaching 1.2%), though difficult. I like your addendum sentence "or can generate a 1.5 to 2-unit win per shoe" as this latter is likely even more doable vs the former.
I think one would agree: We often win "first" in many of our shoes yet finish that same shoe trailing.

*As I side thought. I also feel strongly it is almost impossible to beat a game consistently when said game has a written-in edge >3.0%. Nor should we try if one has access to a lower H.E. game.

**Furthermore, and in the opinion of Kungfubac:
Even if we don't have an advantage greater than H.E. and let's say our skillset only reduces a H.E. from 1.2% to let's say 0.60% (approx. 1/2 of written-in edge). For us to then choose to challenge another even-chance game (all other variables the same) with a 3.0% H.E. means one's skillset must be 5x greater.
Obviously doesn't guarantee us to be long-term winners. Though it helps and I need all the help I can get.

Thx Albalaha for the welcome. Also good to see you posting again. I've read most of your posts and continue to learn from you.

Alb:
"..As you told about yourself, it is apparent that you are a real player and not some kind of paper tiger. ..."
    You are correct. I play hundreds of hands per week. Its really interesting to look/listen at  other players on the table. Mainly observing the regulars that seem to consistently win more often or more $ than they lose. I also note the ones that seem to consistently lose more often than they win.
I learn from both parties.

"We all learn things here. When I started my journey on forums, I was as naive as any newbie could be but I always dared to innovate with improving knowledge."

    Well stated and I agree 100%. I try to learn something new as often as possible re: all things related to Bac. Sometimes I catch a nugget from veterans and sometimes from newbies.

welcome back albalaha

Continued Success,

I wish more casinos offered Pai Gow Poker. A low H.E. and slow game.


https://www.casino.org/news/jackpot-flamingo-las-vegas-pai-gow-poker-player-wins-6-4m/

Hmmmm Kinda interesting as.
Thanks for your work on this/for sharing.

Alot to digest so I will need to review and read again.

At first glance I like the scaled score for the ease in keeping running tabs.

Your statement:

"What to bet if all of the above conditions are fulfilled.

In the remaining 25 or so hands, there's a substantial math propensity to get Banker side not forming heavy negative outliers, meaning that at this 25 hands 'conditioned' sample Banker side will get a fair number of winning hands over the possible total outcomes."

Q: Is there any consideration given if say P has also built a lead in that front 50 decisions? Maybe have a cutoff of say +6 or +8 net Wins or something similar (e.g., 28-22 or 29-21,..etc)??
I think your hypothesis would have additional merit if that was indeed the case.

More later & thx again AsymBacGuy

Thx alrelax all great songs.

I would rank Kenny Rogers (The Gambler) as number one from the above.
Great lyrics throughout but really like the closing:

Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done



Cheers,

Hi alrelax/ albalaha

What I see when viewing Home and scrolling down viewing the left hand column: I see the section for (Asymbacguy) and directly below is the section (VRSEDGE). I do not see the section for (Albalaha's Exclusive) as shown in the pic above by alrelax.

Im glad you guys noted this as a few days ago I was looking for an old post of albalaha and couldnt find his section. However, I was able to find his name on an old post and after clicking on his profile able to click on his "Posts" and then able to see all of his posts.
My assumption was that maybe with all the remods and changes recently to home page by VLS maybe some sections were temporarily moved or repositioned,..etc.

Either way thx for addressing.

Continued Success to all,

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE
Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year

See you in the Bac pit!

As of 12/22/22. The following are all the Las Vegas casinos that offer baccarat tables. We included the type of game, minimum bet, and amount of tables.

https://www.onlineunitedstatescasinos.com/las-vegas/games/baccarat/

Great post AsymBacGuy and perfectly stated:

"But baccarat is not an independent random model, especially while taking complex events as 'triggers'."

"There are infinite 'complex' patterns to look for."

An addendum thought to your fine post. What many players may think is a simple event is in reality a "Complex" event. Meaning many things have to line up for it to present.


Continued Success,

Great post AsymBacGuy

I agree with your comments about #2. Also, IMO #4 is correlated with #2.

I also see Ties as often contributing to our decision-making process and "clustering" (In a negative or confusing manner), at least for me.

Continued Success,