Hi AsymBacGuy
I liked your sidebar on TigerBet up above.

re: Your following statement...
"...Our EV is in direct relationship about how many times we got 'more likely' clustered events than 'isolated' events, knowing that itlr this value is slight more oriented toward the clustered side. In a way or another, but always depending about the general probability we want to classify.

Take the last classification I've illustrated above.

Itlr, consecutive successions of univocal patterns (singles or streaks) are more likely to come out by precise numbers, for example if you'd progressively wager toward not getting any 3-3 sequence (for example) you'll get a sure statistical advantage no matter how the fkng math will dictate.   ..."


     Q: For clarification--You are suggesting wagering for NOT getting a precise (exact)3-3 and you do not mean the second leg could equal a  3-3+  with your example of a 3-3 being pppbbb ?
Thanks


Continued Success,

Thanks Everyone.
HAPPY NEW YEARS. 2022 will be our best year ever.
May the sun always find you even on the coldest of days.


KungFuBac

that's a good read and interesting development.
I think China government will figure out a way to regulate (not total control) this behavior(online gambling) of their citizens. IMO they won't be able to totally eradicate online sites in other countries.
However, they could possibly dole out monetary consequences to countries /online sites. That revenue will then help mitigate the loss of revenue from Macau casinos. Just my 2c  and will be interested in seeing how this plays out.
Im betting on Xi Jinping . The odds are in my favor. 

AsymBacGuy: ..."...Finally, yes, some shoes are unplayable as they do not give the proper room to get a fair amount of pattern situations. Among the worst shoes to play our strategies at there are those producing a lot of ties, so when we suspect the actual shoe will be 'tie' rich we'll simply stand up or starting to bet them.    ..."

     LIKE BUTTON 

Hi/ thx XXVV. I appreciate your comments/thoughts re: Crypto (& roulette too).

XXVV in reply #28: "...So in a few boom cases on some short cycles of a few days or so, such as GALA or Avalanche or CRV or Shiba Inu can rise massively in hours, buy also fall dramatically. It is like surfing - all about timing and balance when to get on or off.

Last night, even though working with a modest Risk Bank I made about 30% overall return on the RB and cashed out, returning coins to Bitcoin and then selling or holding some profit long term. .."

     I think this is crucial when playing the crypto volatility to then move into a more stable investment vehicle(in your case Bitcoin). Same as in gambling too, or most any market IMO. Plus once the crypto field becomes more regulated and shakes out the weak link(s) we may only have the more stable cryptos around. Which will likely be a good thing. I do not foresee exchanges accepting all cryptos for payment. Thus the crypto markets will eventually become a "survivor of the fittest" game. 

Your posts have inspired me to spend a significant amount of time in self-study research on cryptos for past 12 months. Historically I'm not one to go on Baccarat sites to solicit investment expertise. However, much of what you say and references to other sources have proven beneficial. I've also learned in the past 2-3 decades to not go on investment sites in solicitation of investment expertise.

Until recently I did not own any (absolute 0) cryptos. Mainly due to distrust and or naivety. Historically I viewed cryptos as (there is no intrinsic value, or when Bitcoin drops to XYZ price I will buy(it never did) and I watched it soar like many others on the sideline.

Re: Meta1--I've been to their website and researched alot . I like what I see thus far with the main appeal being that part of its value is tied to precious metals. I have several decades of experince trading/investing in precious metals so I may be a little biased. Overall I like most everything I see about Meta1.


My great great great Uncle Confucius once told me:
"Grasshopper--Gold is the only real currency, everything else is just credit."



Continued Success,

Excellent post alrelax. Thanks for detailing your thoughts so readers may pick up a nugget or two. I appreciate u taking the time to post pics of tote.

I like that you write with a style of "plain speak" . In other words you speak from experience and write about the process we all go through (regarding the financial, emotional, and cognitive processing) in real-time gaming with real money at a live table.

alrelax:
"...Just two things most don't possess playing the game.

1)  Self control and the willingness to get up a winner and walk away.

2)  A proper M.M.M. USING 1/3rds as the key guideline. ..."

     #2 is extremely important / the whole ball game IMO. I think it is critical we do NOT regamble 100% of our winnings back through (IOW don't force ourselves to rewin 100% of wins we already won).
The casino only has to win our wager one time. The casino doesn't give us a second chance after raking our chips into their rack: "Ok Kung Fu, lets go double or nothing and only then will you have to pay us on your loss. "


Thx for all the great comments everyone.


Continued success,

Good Job on reply #474 above AsymBacGuy. A lot of solid thoughts/examples. We may have to nominate it for Post-Of-The-Year.
I will comment(and ask a couple Q) in a day or so as it is a lot to digest.

as:

"...It's a sure fact that casinos will make tons of money from baccarat tables as players cannot realize how many bets are placed into the 'negative territory' (almost always by improperly increasing the wagers) and how many bets are placed into the 'positive territory' by low or too low amounts.

The math edge is just a 'booster' for casinos and not the main cause for they are collecting millions from baccarat..."


alrelax:

"...Which a whole lot and I do mean a whole lot of casino patrons have no real clue as to what the real odds or house advantages are at any given table at the time they buy in and begin their play.

"... A second also is, those numbers come from (if done correctly) millions of hands.  Not 25 or 100 or 200 and so on.

So if I sit down and lose my buy in within 20 hands, I did not lose 1.06% on the Banker or whatever's being claimed these days, I lost 100%.  As well, if I lost  I never had a 99% chance to win.  I had a 100% chance to lose.  There, fuel for the math nuts to talk how stupid we are here.
  .."


     Well stated/ I agree 100%.  Variance will always be our number one nemesis (not H.E.)


     Continued Success,

https://news.worldcasinodirectory.com/l-a-s-bicycle-hotel-casino-fined-500000-for-failure-to-alert-officials-of-100m-bettor-97955

I found this interesting from at least two perspectives:

1)Like they didn't know what the $100Million Dollar Man was doing.
2) 100Million Dollar Man should have been banking the games instead of just playing/ exchanging currency.
Its my understanding in CA individuals can still Bank card games.

Anyone have thoughts or opinions.
                     

Thanks AsymBacGuy . I appreciate your reply to my Q above.

"... yet we should remember that bac results are coming out from a finite asymmetrical card distribution acting at an already asymmetrical proposition dictated from the rules..."
     Perfectly stated and its the word finite that we should always remember when at the Bac tables.

     That in my opinion is one of the main differences between Bac and many comparable games  that instead utilize dice vs cards(primarily games such as craps). Yet gaming authors and casino employees incessantly blather on "its just a fitty-fitty coin flip game", suggesting that it doesn't matter how we wager/ "no advantage to be found here".

One of several reasons there is a difference "when comparing games" : (i.e., In Bac obviously the marbles are not placed back into the jar after each drawing of balls(i mean cards).  However, if we only look at the outcomes profile of results when comparing Bac to Craps--they will indeed look similar and will indeed converge toward expectation. Yet IMO two completely different games.  Again, just my personal thoughts.


Continued Success ,

Thx/Good essay AsymBacGuy

"...Math edge cannot do anything about a 'biased' production even though each bet is somewhat taxed.  ..."

     Well said/ IMO this "biased production" is also displayed in most even-chance wager games(e.g., Roul, craps line et al games). Though I do agree Bac is optimum and offers the best opportunities for exploitation(not just because of low H.E.)



"... Casinos want us to 'guess' every hand dealt but the asymmetrical feature takes its full power only after a classification made by a diluted pace (sections)..."

     Q: Do you mean after the event has "underperformed" in a prior section of that shoe?? Can you talk a little more about this diluted pace(sections)? Thank you.


Continued Success,

Thanks XXVV.
Good info/thx for sharing.
I've been following /researching Meta1 as well as most of the ticker symbols on your list.


Continued Success and looking forward to your next update. kfb

alrelax in reply#2 above:

"...THE. DRAWDOWN
There is most definitely a drawdown the highest majority of times in your buy in at the table prior to any real profit coming your way.  You have to figure in and calculate the loss and the impact to your buy in as you wager to survive the drawdown harm...."

     Especially if one wagers a PosProgression(Im certainly in this category). That is unless one is insync with a pos streak in their first couple attempts. Otherwise our net win size from a latter streak will obviously  be a function of how many misses (buyin depletion) we had to endure prior to that clump of wins. I like to think of it as how many steps (i.e., wagers, bullets, steps, distance) must I expect to travel or expend between winning clumps.

     IMO this topic (Drawdown) is ultra important as it gets into bet sizing-to buyin-to bankroll---to our win goal size. The better our hit rate the fewer bullets we need(IOW our betsize can be a larger ratio to our buyin & vice versa). This is also a function of "what is our win goal" and that too is a function of our buyin size . 

IMO when many of us first started playing Bac we often over estimated our hit rate and that means we likely under estimated our required number of bullets /size of bankroll required. Coupled with the fact we also overestimated the size of our win goal. At least I know I did.

Re: Drawdown--I also think the emotional part of sitting at a table having drawndown significantly will affect a player and their future decisions. I see a common issue on an almost daily basis. Where a pos pro player will wager a pospro and after the expected draw down ("because of the pospro"), will then be too emotionally distraught when the perfect streak comes along and then not be able to pull-the-trigger and really capitalize on said streak. When they could have recovered >=200%+ of the most recent drawdown. Instead they will limp toward the finish line /barely make it back to even or +10-20% net win.

SOLUTION: If one is willing to lose their buyin then one also needs to be willing to accept a huge win when it does indeed present itself(And it will). We just don't know when.


Continued Success To All,

Hi ADulay--Thx for reply and great info/intel.

I had a trip booked two years ago about a month before covid hit(for the following october)  /the agency I was going through cancelled a week after I scheduled. I had looked into various routes(from midwest ,USA) and going through Philippines et al locations and finally decided to just go straight into Hong Kong/ do the ferry over to Macao(I "think" i was told it would be $75 per trip but may be mistaken as that was 18-20 months ago).

Im hoping to rechedule in 2022 and had previously planned on booking through Sands group (simply because I know a host that had worked in that market). I have a friend from college that lives in Hong Kong and other  than that know very little as to what I can expect in Macao.

Any thoughts/suggestions/tips are certainly welcomed.

"..
One thing I do remember because it was a beautiful piece of machinery to watch was an electronic baccarat dealing machine behind clear glass..."
     that's very interesting as I have never heard of (or seen) a robotic dealer. 



Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy

I've enjoyed perusing through all your recent posting activity/though not responding daily I am indeed viewing/pondering your thoughts.

re: reply #465 above: "...Always remembering that rare events are more likely to show up clustered and then followed by a very diluted pace of apparition. .."

     I agree especially when viewed from say a specific perspective of >=4 IAR  same-side streaks.
On the same topic:

Q: Would you also agree with an almost similar inverse logic/statement: (i.e., a very diluted pace of apparition is often followed by a clustered rare event)??

Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy--again , appreciate your willingness to elaborate as you do.

"...Since this doesn't seem to be the case, we can conclude that results are somewhat sensitive about previous outcomes, the reason being about an actual card distribution making some patterns more likely than others at certain steps and after some situations happened.."


Can you give us a couple examples of certain outcomes you most commonly track/ and the implications for wagering later in the shoe. So would you now be more inclined to look for (another of the same) event just observed or in some cases maybe (NOT another of the same)  event just observed???


Another Example: e.g., A somewhat similar topic/example you touched on in an essay a few days ago regarding consecutive same side winners by first-two-cards.  So in this question & for illustrative purposes lets say P just won three consec decisions and for this exercise lets say they won with  two-card Naturals /their totals presented as:

Player received (2-6=8, 3-5=8, 4-4=8) .
Disregarding what B received as all we know is B had totals <8 on its respective hands.

     Would you interpret the results  as P will likely be receiving fewer Naturals going forward because there are now (N-3) Naturals remaining in the shoe.
(OR)
Would you think wow Player must have the hot hand so I shall bet only P in the near future??? Other interpretations?
How would you apply the above info so that it would increase your probability of guessing with a greater accuracy in the remainder of shoe??

Thx in advance,kfb