AsymBacGuy:

"... in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability.

Obviously in some way such statement must negate the perfect 'independence' of the outcomes, yet we've seen that even at coin flip successions where itlr A=B, some A patterns are more probable to come out first than some B patterns..."

Finite/ Order

I find the concepts of the two words in bold very important for how we should view the overall outcomes. Its good for us to understand the finiteness(I call it approaching limits) of outcomes. Just as importantly the order( If an outcome occurs First), yet the total outcomes may still be near even. The order of events are very important.




Continued Success,

This has alrelax written all over it  .

"...The Gaming Streaming/Video/Photo Policy is launching for the Nevada properties in May 2023," the memo shared. "The new policy is aimed at allowing our guests to take photos and videos, and, when appropriate, to share that content in real or in near real-time via social media broadcasts..."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/mgm-makes-surprising-las-vegas-strip-gambling-change/ar-AA1c6EXJ



Continued Success,

Thx alrelax for your prompt reply.

I agree with your opinion Gizmotron.

This is very concerning (though not surprising). I've always been a little paranoid to gamble online though I know a few people that have been successful.

"...Originally started as a Graphical User Interface for Panorama Tools (hence the name), PTGui has evolved into a full featured, industry leading photo stitching application.  Take roulette for example.  We can have a series of 35 dealer initiated spins and instantly while appearing legitimately, allowing the outcome to be our chosen result. ..."


Strong words from an insider. The evidence is difficult to refute.

I avoid slot machines and avoid most e machines. Many of my states 120+ casinos only allow one to play their freeplay on slots or emachines(such as eCraps by Interblock or eRoulette by Evolution).

A friend was playing the eCraps(by interblock). It is the one with the slender cylindrical glass capsule with two small dice where one is not playing with other players. Anyway, he built a profit of +$70,000 in approx 3months--then it was wiped away (+additional  -12K) in approx 2mo,....etc.
I had warned him it was simply a slot machine with a craps cabinet. He disagreed as it was his opinion they had no method to control the dice.  He was mostly wagering a steep Marty for 3 steps. Also, one can get a roll approx every 8-10seconds. A very dangerous combination.



Continued Success,

https://www.casino.org/news/busting-vegas-myths-casinos-pump-in-extra-oxygen/

alrelax:
"...Be careful.  There are ways the casino can track you and have it appear they are not.  I have some minor detailed info on this.  Not handy right now, but I will dig out the email I received from an out of country, live online casino personnel, whom gave me some detailed operating tricks they use/used, etc.  I will find it and post what I was told..."


Thx as I would like to hear these operating tricks.

I like the idea of Stadium Bac setups like in Vegas,USA or Bethlehem, PA,USA where one can set at a console and observe 4 games at once being dealt with live dealers visible at the tables in front of you. Observing the cut/ see each card and draw. It doesn't seem like they could utilize any tricks. Possible, I guess.

My state of main residence doesn't permit any online gaming(of any kind). However, two nearby adjoining states allow it. Plus my state is changing some of their gambling laws(or likely will in the near future).

*Regarding the two nearby adjoining states. I find it interesting that as I drive and approach the state borders, I start receiving popup texts from Caesars et al sports books offer sports betting there.


Continued Success,

alrelax :
"...2). Exiting Points.  Know what they are and exactly the definitive number/amounts of win or loss that triggers them.   ..."

Every variable (including Exit) in our game should be predetermined EXCEPT: Bet Placement.

Re: Exit Point--My preference is to predetermine my W exit as (>= X). Never Ever Limit.
Im always looking for that extended W streak. However, one must be realistic/ not push. Patience and wait for it to come to us.

My Lexit is (0) per buy in/shoe or I'm tired. I will only lose (<=1 buy in) per shoe. Yes I could possibly lose 1 buyin in >1shoe, or every shoe that day(though I don't recall ever doing so), and the next day, and the next day,...etc.

I don't feel a need to lose down to (0) or hit W goal each day. For example if I play 4-5 shoes and up(or down) a few hundred and didn't hit W or L exits I may call it a day. I'm not thrilled but some days I head home and feel like it was a wasted day. However, its also a consolation on some days as I realize many players went on tilt and busted several buyins in a single shoe. Other days I observe just as many winning big and then give back their orig buyin + 100% of the winnings.

*A few weeks ago I played two 4 hour sessions that day(prob 6shoes): Session 1=+120, Session 2=+15(after gas). that's not a good return for 9 hours at the table and away from home 12 hours.

** Another day awhile back I a had a grand Net = +$8 for the day after about 9 hours at the table.

Some days I simply can't get anything going. I try to avoid dwelling in the past. Same for big win days--I start anew the next day.


Continued Success To All,

Good Morning Gizmotron /thanks for your reply.

Gizmotron: "... missing every one and still just grinding away with a few ups and downs. Everything adds up. You must take the gravy once in a while in order to be able to take the chances in the first place. Playing against randomness is all about winning in the aggregate.  ..."

I agree.

I view gambling at Bac as similar in some ways to fishing. There is a reason we call the art of casting a line into the water "fishing" and not "Catching".

A skilled fisherman doesn't just go anywhere into the ocean and start randomly casting their line in all directions and hope a fish finally sees the bait(and the fish also wants that bait and strikes at that bait).

A skilled fisherman may look at the weather conditions(In the past has fishing been productive in weather like this)?
In the past have the fish liked this particular bait better vs typical bait?
In the past have fish struck at my bait in this section of the ocean vs typical days?
What depth have fish in the past seemed to strike at my bait vs typical day?
In the past have fish seemed to strike at my bait at this time of day vs other times of day?.

...etc.

The more experienced the fisherman the more tools in the tackle box. Some days very few tools(lures--bait) will work.

Some days the fishing is great and we should fish all day and all night or until they quit biting.

Some days the fish simply are not biting. It is a great option to know we do not have to use all our bait and fish all day.


Continued Success

Good post 8OR9--I was getting ready to post this (or similar) link from MSN and noticed you beat me to it.

"...over two-thirds of blackjack tables on the Strip have shifted from 3:2 payouts to 6:5. Tables that pay out at 6:5 give the winning gambler $12 for every $10 bet as opposed to winning $15 in a 3:2 payout, Mehaffey explained.

Bets at the roulette tables on the Strip are also getting harder to win thanks to a triple-zero iteration of the game that favors the house rather than the gambler, per WSJ.
  ..."

Roulette Dealer: "Step right up folks--Now offering Triple-Zero roulette: More ways to win,...etc." 



Continued Success,

alrelax in original post of this thread:

"*...  The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in football.  Just because a play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.  But actually and better defined is, that the other team just had something that outdid you or their moves just excelled and yours could not come forward and be probably executed.)..."

In Baccarat this sentence is so true: The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result.

As players we should look at wagers and think "is this a good-value buy(GVB)". If it is a GVB for that shoe in that spot then place the wager and not look back(Ok to always be evaluating our choices. However, we may still NOT win many of our Good-Value Bets).

Nor should we expect to win in a dominating ratio(e.g., win 8/11 or say 16/20 bets). It is a victory if we can only manage winning 6/11 placed wagers. 11/21 placed wagers,...etc). Its this same "tightness" in the great game of Bac that also makes it difficult to lose 8/11 or 16/20 placed wagers.
This is a good thing.

When one limits their bet placement to a good,better,best choice and selectively only choosing perceived "best" spots we will see our overall results as winning slightly more correct vs incorrect.
In other words always ask ourselves just before bet placemeent: Is this a good-value bet. We should be able to state WHY we are placing this bet right now. What makes it better than random.

We should be able to silently say in our minds eye: Im betting B or P because of: _________, or because of ___________ and _____________, or because of _________, _________, and _________ just occurred...etc.

I find it helpful to keep meticulous records and notes for review (re: bet selection) and what I was thinking before placing that bet(Win or lose). Often, I look back at a losing shoe and find very few if any wagers that I would have placed differently. Usually, my losing shoes will have my side losing 2-3 extra hands to atypical outcomes or abnormal series of events' continuance. However, I know across several shoes of only placing perceived "good-value" bets I will get the W (meaning +Net $) for the day.


Continued Success,

Hi Gizmotron--hope all is well.

Your statement: "They are unpredictable but at times they are coincidental."

Can you elaborate on that.
I view the word coincidental meaning in this context as: (results from chance despite being very unlikely,...etc) Do you mean something different?




Continued Success,

alrelax in orig post at beginning of this great thread(Great thoughts/comments everyone). Ill try to take one topice at a time.

RANDOMNESS.  What truly is random?  What are advantages?  What are Disadvantages?  How can I use Sections and recognize them?
------------------------------------------------------------------

Randomness:
"In common usage, randomness is the apparent or actual lack of pattern or predictability in information.[1][2] A random sequence of events, symbols or steps often has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable.[note 1] For example, when throwing two dice, the outcome of any particular roll is unpredictable, but a sum of 7 will tend to occur twice as often as 4. In this view, randomness is not haphazardness; it is a measure of uncertainty of an outcome. Randomness applies to concepts of chance, probability, and information entropy. "

IMO this is key: Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable[

Or my preferred way of saying that last sentence:
"but if the probability distribution is known, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is SLIGHTLY MORE predictable VS RANDOMLY GUESSING[ "

Our ability to use logic/deduction(reasoning) gives us a huge advantage when trying to guess one more correct than incorrect. My thinking is: The Laws Of Probability (LOP) are like a cloud hovering always above the table (its always there suggesting what will happen across hundreds of outcomes).

However, just as certain types of clouds can suggest rain(or not rain) within the next hour. We can use these (LOP) clouds to predict our (rain or not rain) at the table. In other words if we see a cloud overhead and also know the meteorologist has stated 60% probability of rain. Then we wait until we start feeling just a slight moisture on our arm so lightly that we can only sense it on our arm hair---THAT is the moment we should place our bet on rain.

Some players invert this order of events and think: I shall bet for rain every hand and thus it shall start raining (eventually).


Continued Success,

re: #2 John Gates from above from 7 Biggest Baccarat Legends.

"...Yet another famous Gates gambling story is when he bet on which raindrops would fall the fastest on a window. He and an associate made wagers worth up to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the falling raindrops.  ..."

    When I first read that I thought: "is this Gates guy just a degenerate gambler." ??
Then I had a second thought and concluded (maybe or maybe not): Maybe he knew something about (Falling speed of raindrops) that his opponent didn't know. Maybe he knew that he knew more overall knowledge about falling raindrops than his opponent. So it may have actually been "A Good-Value Bet" for Gates.
At the casino as well as in life: There are good-value/bad-value bets. In other words what is the risk vs reward or what is the potential.

This thought led to another thought (I've been doing a lot of thinking lately).
I perceive that in a casino there are numerous wagering opportunities across the many games where a Good-Value Bet could be found more often vs only looking at the single bac shoe we are playing. I often ponder if we could maybe find other Non-Baccarat betting opportunities by simply strolling through the table pit and note the tote boards at various other games. Streak or anti-streak or whatever else you feel is a good trigger.
This may be more applicable at small casinos where they may only have 1-2 Bac tables but 20-30 other games always in play.
Simply walk through the pit/note the most recent outcomes at a particular game and making a couple attempts.

I feel most certain that Mr. Gates could find a good betting opportunity (Win or lose some bets are still a good-value buy).

Thoughts?

Thx Asym for all the details /examples.

I like your utilization of 7 event cycles.


In your post #796 above.

as:

"...2- On the other end, the less likely event or series of events show the obvious general propensity to come out isolated, yet they are way more affected by volatility than the above 'clusters' propensity as in some way they must catch up the 'normal' clustering effect.
After having studied large live shoes datasets we have reached the conclusion that it's better to 'chase' clusters than hoping to get 'less likely' isolated situations.  ..."

re: clusters

    I find your concept above critical to ones long-term success. An addendum thought regarding all things cluster--I also find that after catching a couple wins from said cluster it is beneficial to not keep looking for the same exact cluster or "grouping" (in that shoe). The initial concept is still valid in the residual of that shoe. However, the residual of that shoe now possess one less of the Previously Caught Cluster.






Continue On My Friend,

As an addendum to Gizmotron post #4 above:

"We don't stop playing because we get old, we get old because we stop playing"
Doyle Brunson, RIP.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/golf/poker-icon-doyle-brunson-dies-at-89-years-old/ar-AA1bbr59?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=77fd04dfea1f4d3ea763ada19bf9d2bf&ei=11

7 Biggest Baccarat Legends--Scroll to the bottom for the link. Thanks for viewing.kfb

The following is an excerpt from #2 John Gates:

"...His wife, Dellora, wasn't thrilled about these marathon poker sessions. But John kept diamonds in his vest pocket and gave them to Dellora to calm her down and keep his poker games going.

Gates once wagered $70,000 on a horse race in England and won $600,000 dollars. The story was exaggerated to claim that he won $1 million, which only furthered his reputation as Mr. Bet-a-Million.

Yet another famous Gates gambling story is when he bet on which raindrops would fall the fastest on a window. He and an associate made wagers worth up to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the falling raindrops.   ..."



https://www.gamblingsites.net/blog/7-biggest-baccarat-legends/