Excellent list above ABG.

re: List (a--g) and I agree wholeheartedly with most of them.

"a) play baccarat only when you hope to transform your bankroll (before finishing it) into at least a 10x or 20x or more accomplishment, providing a proper amount of time employed at the tables."
     IMO we need to win at least 12x our avg buyin every once in a while, not necessarily in a single shoe but across several shoes(meaning 1 buyin generates >=12x said buyin, prior to buyin dying),  as -Variance and the natural volatility is always present /grinding us down. I'm not saying shoot-for-the-moon every shoe or session, however, when it is there we must pounce.

"b) defend your fkng bankroll at all costs, avoiding the most part of st.u.pid coin flip confrontations"
     I agree for the most part, however, my personal opinion may differ some on this. IMO we must defend our bankroll--Yes. However, there is a fine line between defending our bankroll, and squeezing it so hard we don't allow ourselves to really go for it(When the opportunity presents), all because we are too stingy and not willing to risk said Buyin. Yes, we will have a higher shoe win percentage, however, we may also have a smaller ROI.

     This is an area I erred in when I first started gambling. Yes I had a win % >=90% by shoe. However, there were shoes I should have made >= 3-5x my buyin, easily.
One shoe I still kick myself as it only had 1(one) 3iar (ppp), the whole shoe. That ppp was near the end. So no BBB or 3iar Opp the whole shoe , with may ties. I was "guarding" my buyin (I think was $2K) by wagering ($30-40-50, down to $30) betting for B streaks. A predetermined JackArse plan I probably read in a book by some famous/expert gambler--I mean author.
I try not to think about it much as I would need to undergo therapy,lol.


thx again abg,

Bump this essay by alrelax.

Good to read or reread. Novice or veteran this is so important for all of us. Make sure you click on the link at the end too.
I really like the sentence at the very end.

A business plan of action or Money Management Method is so very important for all things gambling.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


IMO we should design a gambling plan/ it should be similar to running a small business. It has one employee (Me) and should have a predetermined business model or plan. One of the main criteria for my business is to buy inventory and sell said inventory for more than I paid. This is obviously a top criterion for any business regardless of if one is selling gold bars, burgers, hammers, computers, ...etc.


If I go to the local casino, hand the dealer $2000 dollars in hundreds, they count out 20 black chips, then I just bought my inventory. My main criteria are: How can I sell these 20 black chips back to the casino for greater than $100 each and totaling more than $2000.
Our business model (wager size, pressing, regressing, ...etc.) should be mostly automated and predetermined. The main variable that often can't (or shouldn't) be predetermined is bet selection. Our experience(skillset) and this specific shoe profile should primarily dictate how/where we make our bet selection. 

The casino will immediately buy back my inventory for exactly what I purchased: $2000. However, I can't make a living buying inventory for $2000 and selling for $2000. I have overhead (gas, auto maintenance, food,etc, also my time has value). So, my objective is to figure out a method for selling all of my chips back individually for more than my avg cost, or sell maybe 4-5 back to them for a total >Cost($2000), or sell at least one back to them for greater than my initial cost of $2000. This is a good deal for me as I get some options.

The casino has agreed to buy my chips(inventory) 24/7 so I get to choose when to sell. They will buy back in any form, though this form is preset by casino (Green,white,red,orange,black,purple,...etc). This is also a good deal for me as I get some options on how to package my inventory--e.g., I can make one wager for $2000, 20 wagers @ $100, 80 @ $25,...etc, Whatever I want.
Advantage KungFuBac.

The cas will get to buy some back for basically ($0) when that black chip lost on its first attempt, a good deal for them (as all they had to do is show they have matching collateral or credit), matching the value written on that little wood chip. Now after only one transaction(attempt) they get to resell that same chip to someone else for the exact same price. A good deal for them.

The longer I play the cas will get to buy some back for approx. ($98.80), when I win on first attempt and lose the same exact bet on second attempt, over just a few transactions they will get them back at this little discount. A good deal for them.

However, what if I get 5/20 of the black chips to generate a total of say $2500(500 avg)  prior to losing and going back to the dealer's rack. Maybe I can get one black chip to generate say $4500 prior to losing and going back to the dealer's rack.

Now let's say I now decide to use 25/45 of these won black chips out of the 45 chips (some have to be used for expenses, surprises, addition to bankroll, addendum buyins, ...etc.). So now I have 25 black chips(inventory--warriors) going out to do battle on my next shoe. Each $100 warrior will have one goal and assignment: Go out and do battle and bring back more than $100, or die trying. Then as I send them out individually, I give the command: Go Bold or Don't Go at All).



So regardless of how my business model produces a profit it must produce a +profit more times than not or my store will be forced to close. So, I better have sufficient start-up cash(inventory), coupled with a proven business model (i.e., Money Management). Because I know with great certainty, I will have slow days and slow weeks, and I'm optimistic that I won't have many (or any) slow month(s).



"When it is there, realize it; when it is not do not attempt to make it happen.  That is where we all have gone and go wrong".
                                                                                                                                                                   alrelax


Continued Success To All, kfb

Hi all/ hope my fellow Americans had a great July 4th celebration for Independence Day. USA-USA-USA 

Good discussion alrelax and ABG

ABG: "... Mathematicians consider bac outcomes as a endless succession of EV- spots, so assuming that every bet will be EV- no matter what.
This is a strong fkng unbelievable sh.it as EV+ or EV- spots move around dynamical probabilities coming out from the actual card distribution getting well determined sd limits per shoe.  ..."


Alrelax: "...Wagering heavy, large and consistently on whatever is winning (any pattern/trends/presentments that you can identify and side with) is the absolute key in the game of baccarat.    ..."

Both of your comments remind me of a statement I read on the forum a year or so back. I "think" it was forum veteran Gizmotron. Although he had many good thoughts on roulette, bac, et al even-chance wagers, the following statement is something I keep in the back of my mind as I start every new bac shoe.

To Paraphrase.  "Always bet on the best trend."

that's it. Very simplistic.

However, IMO hugely important as we will frequently see /interpret at least two trends occurring greater than expectation. Choose the BEST trend that is happening right now and follow it til it ends. Then STOP and start looking for a different one that may now become the new BEST trend.

An example I saw yesterday. This was at the very beginning of the shoe. Typically I start every shoe by waiting on the shoe to show the first outcome, the other side, then show the initial side once again, prior to considering my first wager. I may watch many more outcomes but I at least wait for the above.

The shoe started:

BT P B PP B PPP B P B P B PP   . At first glance we could easily see a couple wagering opportunities.

I considered betting for another P Win on the next P column following the PPP. However, the BEST trend thus far was B1 followed by a P once and wait for another B, and wager P for once, wait for a B,...etc.  The above pattern then continued on with BPBPBP and then it ended .  So see a B wager P once had a streak of nine(9iar). I was fortunate and picked up seven  of the nine hits.

Simply by following the BEST trend.

As I think most of u will agree: Sometimes there will also be times when there is no Best trend and only good/better trends. Im always cautious when no BEST(strong) trend has shown because if Im  too eager to wager its easy to  interpret that good or better trend as a BEST when it was really mediocre but because the shoe has been so non eventful we may erroneously perceive any trend as being bet worthy. 




Continued Success,

Thx ABG /alrelax

Excellent  discussion/i will submit a couple followup thoughts/Q later tonight.



Continued Success,

Gd Morning 8OR9/thx.. Good read in  your last reply re:Bankman-Fried article.

In part: "...Nearly $2 trillion in crypto market value has evaporated since November. Two bellwether digital assets Luna, a $40 billion crypto asset associated with TerraUSD, a $16 billion stablecoin designed to maintain parity with the U.S. dollar, have collapsed. Earlier this month bitcoin traded for below $20,000, its lowest level since December 2020.

But the fallout is far from complete. Earlier this month, Singapore-based Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a highly levered crypto trading firm with $200 million of exposure to Luna revealed that it was nearly insolvent...."

and then :

"...the two digital asset exchanges turned to billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of FTX and the richest person in crypto, worth some $20.5 billion. Between FTX and his quantitative trading firm Alameda, he provided the companies with $750 million in credit lines. There is no guarantee that Bankman-Fried will recoup his investment. "You know, we're willing to do a somewhat bad deal here, if that's what it takes to sort of stabilize things and protect customers," he says.

"We're willing to do a somewhat bad deal here, if that's what it takes to sort of stabilize things...."[/b]

???SMH--If Im on a deserted island with no forms of media available and all of a sudden, the above articles floats upon the shore in a bottle--my first thought would be WHEN did Bankman-Fried short the crypto markets. lol.

------------------------------------------------------------------


Going forward and on a more positive note I would think this cleansing of weak and or fabricated Crypto Co. is exactly what the industry/ higher quality crypto-related co want.

I feel the "blockchain & related innovations" are here to stay. However, just because one buys bitcoin or other crypto companies does not mean one is necessarily investing in this future technology for doing financial transactions. In other words, If I buy bitcoin I do not receive a royalty every time someone uses a blockchain type transaction.

Right now, if I make a financial transaction with Visa and Transunion, several entities are receiving a cut from that 3.5% transaction fee. At the moment no one entity owns the one-and-only patent for crypto transactions. IOW Bitcoin owners are not making any money when I buy something with Bitcoin et al cryptos.


My opinion that "blockchain and related technology that will be developed", is here to stay is based in part to the following ideas (Just my opinions of course):

A)     Big banks and the financial industry have or are filing for the majority of patents related to this type of transactions (i.e., blockchain).

B)     The world (especially the east and very poor countries with a devalued currency) are working toward an international currency that is not totally reliant upon the USD (Pegged to USD). IMO the USD has benefitted a lot over past seven decades (post WWII) to not only being the most stable worldwide currency but in part due to it being the least-bad or least-weak currency. After the USD departed its pegging with silver (1960s) and gold(70s) one cannot ignore and certainly recognizes the erosion from inflation. However, all things considered it was indeed and still is the most stable vs any other one currency.

IMO the USD will never be completely replaced. However, I think within the next one to two decades we will see an international currency become available.

This new currency or basket-type currency for doing transactions will lend itself to the blockchain type technology. Thus, the residual companies like Bitcoin and Meta1 that survive the current anti-crypto onslaught will be in a perfect position for a part in this new global thinking.

This basket will likely involve some form of blockchain-type technology (maybe Bitcoin or similar) that is accepted in most countries. My thinking is that it will likely be tied to Gold,USD, Oil, Yuan and maybe a couple other forms of currency that has trust /global value, but most importantly, verified for its true daily value. This new form of financial transactions will be an improvement for countries with a weak currency, that may have other valuable resources: Oil, minerals,...etc, and
not-as-good for countries with a currently-perceived strong currency(Think USA /the USD, China/the Yuan,..etc).


You heard it here first. The new motto for Betselection.cc   : Tomorrows News Today.


Continued Success To All,

Hi all,
Good post.

ABG:
"...Considering outcomes as singles, doubles and 3+s, itlr the most volatility happens at doubles just as they are the more likely occurrence itlr...."

re: and 3+s
     For clarification when u write in your posts: 3+s (Do you mean >=3 such as 3,4,5,6,...etc.  OR do you mean 4,5,6,....etc  )??


re: itlr the most volatility happens at doubles just as they are the more likely occurrence itlr...."

[/color]

     Personally I perceive my hit rate  is lowest in a group of doubles (especially if Ties interspersed). Mainly due to not being able to determine if my decision making was lucid or did I just get lucky and lock on to a 2-2-2-2 early. Which implies I was just fortunate to randomly guess insync with what was randomly occurring at this particular part of shoe. 

Sometimes I feel it is analogous to driving while blindfolded, or maybe driving down a two-way road while straddling the middle yellow line. One can sense we are indeed still on the road but also recognize we are possibly about to hit something. However, one doesn't know if we are going to hit the left ditch, right ditch, or oncoming traffic,....etc. Either way I know the current path can't last much longer, yet Im hesitant to detour. 

Thx again abg.


Continued Success To All,

Thx ABG--Several gold nuggets in your posts above.

"...  Consecutive 3 streaks do not interest us as being affected by a huge variance..."


My somewhat related thought:


     When I see an exact: 3iar with 0 ties in the string (e.g.,PPP or BBB), I perk up on that next column (theorizing that it is more likely to go 2iar or 4 iar vs not exactly 3iar again. Of course as most will agree we also should consider that it has to go through 2iar to make it to 3iar and through 2iar/3iar to potentially make it to 4iar. So several stopgates in there to prevent it from going 4iar and or 4iar+.
Possibly a wagering opportunity in there.

re: 3iar columns repeating exactly for several columns without a 2iar or 4iar:
Just my way of thinking ITLR as I view most all things bac as being a game of cycles, rotating, cyclical, asymmetrical...etc  vs a game of symmetry. Though it will often appear on the tote board to always be attempting this evening-out summary, and converging toward this "evening out", it never does exactly. Nor does it have to for us to still view as an even-chance game that is one of the most fair games in the casino.

Just an opinion.

Thx again ABG for all your time/posts.

Continued Success,

Hi klw

"...Surely a perceived edge is diluted the more decks a casino uses. ..."

I agree as IMO "our" edge is diluted (or their edge is enhanced) with the additional decks utilized by casino. Especially to the B wager.


Thx for post /Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9 for the intel in the above et al links. Alot of good info to digest. Keep em coming.

Its almost mind boggling at what some of these crypto co and exchanges were doing with investors investments.
In some cases it appears like it would be analogous to me soliciting investments for my state-of-the-art Baccarat System: (KungfuMillionKryptGold1000), of course its encryptoized so no one can steal it.

Then after about 10 billion poured in (before I produced anything)  , instead of utilizing my superduper cryptoized bac system. I instead, pulled the 10billion, fabricated the account ledger on my website, and fabricated the individual investors monthly statements.
THEN , instead of following my published prospectus, I went with Plan B: I took the investment money and placed wagers at the horsetrack only on longshots, parlayed over to the Big Wheel, and parlayed those wins to Keno, all the while leveraging the initial money for additional loans and or for other totally unrelated cryptos.

What could go wrong??? 

All the best,

Thx --excellent post/ glad u provided examples.

From ABG reply above:

"....my samples considered the 3/1-2/3 attack and each W spot is +1 (minus vig when applicable) and L= -1
1-2 trigger is any single or double happening after a 3+ streak.

Almost impossible to get a multilayered progression to lose as it's virtually impossible that any card distribution won't get at least one 'strong' shifted situation to happen very shortly.

There are 96 'key cards' to fall here or there along with 128 zero-value cards. The remaining card combinations are just flowing without 'strong' math reasons to produce a winning hand at either side, itlr such part of outcomes will equal.
Imo we must spot such 'key cards imbalances' and not trying to win at the way more likely 'remaining' whimsical situations.

And btw, the lesser the amount of decks utilized to form a shoe greater will be the probability to catch those 'imbalances' by a proper 'key card' propensity assessment.
That's why in Vegas and in Asian casinos 8 decks are utilized instead of the EU 6 decks. ..."

Q1: (In blue above):
"impossible that any card distribution won't get at least one 'strong' shifted situation to happen very shortly."

     Do you mean in any one full shoe, or say within 3 spots,  5 spots? 8 spots? Other?
I do agree with your thesis above. Im just wondering what has been your experience with the upper end extreme u typically observe. In your opinion what are the merits for: Choosing to do a slow negpro or steep negpro til u catch a W, or no negpro=Flat, or Pospro, when pursuing this keyhole spot for the W?


Q2:(From In Red above) . 
"And btw, the lesser the amount of decks utilized to form a shoe greater will be the probability to catch those 'imbalances' by a proper 'key card' propensity assessment.
That's why in Vegas and in Asian casinos 8 decks are utilized instead of the EU 6 decks...."

I play at mostly Indian casinos in the (Midwest,USA) and it seems many utilize a 6-deck shoe  vs 8-deck shoe. I've asked WHY and no one can give a reason. Often, the reply is "I don't know that's just how we get them,...etc, OR that's what we are told to use,...etc." 
Regardless if factory shuffled or in-house shuffle.

Besides your above reasoning are there other reasons u perceive casinos would choose a 6-deck shoe vs 8-deck??
re: Streaks (same side, chop, other). What's  your opinion on :How does a 6-D vs 8-D shoe affect length of streaks?


Thx Again,kfb

Hi all,

AsymBacGuy:

Another samples

LLW
LLL
WWWWL
LWW
WLL
WWWL
LWWLW
WLLLL
WWW
LL

W= 18 L=18



C'MON MAN!

"We will need the expertise of forum veteran Albalaha just to interpret that data."     

Thx ABG

"...The difference is that asymbacguy, albeit being entitled to get more winning streaks than losing streaks, must bet two times to be right whereas asymbacgirl can wait to get 'key' spots to wager, that is she'll be 50% wrong or 50% right. ..."


"...Notice that both scenarios are mutually exclusive, meaning that whenever asymbacguy will get ALL winnings asymbacgirl won't get any win but at the same time she could get a lower amount of losing hands (as singles coming out after a 3+ streak won't entioce any action for her)...."

"...It's like that for once girls are somewhat more likely to win as it's more unlikely to get back-to-back ALL asymbacguy winnings for a couple of shoes dealt than getting two consecutive shoes not forming at least one spot to get asymbacgirl to win and with a way lower effort...."
__________________________________________________________________________________

Well stated and I think the concepts in blue are often overlooked as to how important it is to get a win with as little effort(funds) as possible being spent. Obviously it is optimum when we get that W on the first wager(attempt).

IOW, how can we get a Net Win with the greatest efficiency. Meaning : Fewest wagers or the least monies risked.

I really like your examples above/thx.


Cheers,

Thanks 8OR9--Excellent read.

"...Recent troubles at crypto lender Celsius Network were exacerbated by arbitragers as well. The price of stETh token that Celsius has a large position in started trading at a large discount from Ether, to which it's tied.

"As stETH goes down, arbitragers buy stETH and short ETH against it, sending ETH lower, which again lowers collateral values across DeFi," effectively worsening Celsius's position, according to a recent Arca note...."


I was suspicious of this type behavior though hadn't considered individual traders preying on each other. I thought it would most likely be from a hedge fund or billionaire that preyed on the smaller crypto investor or smaller exchange. Much like we see stock market Shorts stacked against a company when others sense blood in the water.





Continued Success,

Hi all,

Condolences to any Bac comrades still exposed to the crypto bloodbath. It does appear the bloodletting may be slowing some or at least taking a brief pause.

I can relate somewhat as I endured the dot.com blood bath a couple decades back.
I mentioned a few weeks back that I had invested in seven cryptos with $7k in bac winnings. Update: > 50% has disappeared from the ledger.

My objective was twofold:

A) It wasn't that I perceived they had much or significant intrinsic value, or produced a durable, or consumable good. I hoped to utilize the volatility and when my bitcoin had increased from my buy price/ a recent spike, I could then use that to purchase a less-volatile commodity (mainly precious metals), in USD(which like the precious metals was still at the same price or only up or down (maybe 1/2 % either way), vs Bitcoin and cryptos which were going mostly upward with daily volatility (5%-12%).

B) Like most investors I hoped that after I utilized the volatility , it would also be on a trajectory to the moon and I could sell my crypto to moon-seekers for alot more than my entry price(or just keep holding and go way past the moon:greed). In last few days Im seeing that referred to as The Greater Fool Theory.
     *Which imo is why most everybody that purchased cryptos touted cryptos because one had to sell it to someone else at a higher price(until no higher buyers could be found).

Meaning IMO that was all many cryptos offered as an investment vehicle as they did not produce anything, were not verifiably tied(pegged)  to anything with intrinsic value: i.e., Gold,silver, USD,Yuan, Oil futures, Lumber futures,..etc), could not send us a check (dividends,...etc), the investors money wasn't used to make widgets and sell for profit, ...etc.   Nada.) 

Example of my Plan-A)

For example, several of the larger international precious metals dealers about 6m-12 mo ago started accepting payment in the form of 5 or so of the more notable cryptos: Mainly BTC, BCH, ETH, WBTC, DOGE, LTC, and five others USD-pegged stable coins.
     *They didn't care as they instantaneously converted to USD so no risk(they could have just as easily said we accept contracts on oil futures, cattle futures, corn futures,..etc)

The price of a 1oz Gold coin today cost me exactly  $2002 this morning at 7a.m. (This is the cheapest I could find it along with free shipping /insurance.
As we all know Precious metals vendors(like other venders selling other goods) charge customers an extra fee based on how one chooses to pay. The cheapest method listed in order from best to worst:

$2002.00  Paper check, echeck, ACH, Wire(+my banks wire fee)

$2024.00  Crypto(Only BTC, BCH, ETH, WBTC, DOGE, LTC )

$2087.00  Major credit card/Paypal


Now back to my plan A above.

My thinking/objective was that I was buying volatility** and would observe when bitcoin was above my initial buy price, + coupled with a volatile day of say +7%, and gold or silver prices had not fluctuated(and hopefully down 1/2--1%). Well, my plan worked perfectly for two transactions, ....until it didn't. We obviously see that as cryptos have tanked recently my Plan A is no longer feasible in the current state of all things cryptos(volatile but in a downward freefall.
     **Just as in gambling it(Volatility) helps us  win: we either need to wager a volatile bet or induce volatility into a non-volatile bet. Just my thoughts/theory.

Going forward I see it as a rough journey for most cryptos. Furthermore the todays' cryptos have made the path even more difficult for the more solid crypto and crypto-related companies.  The few that may have actually been on solid ground with sound management practices/ not leaving their investors nakedly exposed to huge market volatility/nothing else.

My view is that some of these companies actually profited greatly and in many cases actually shorted the recent downturn and or started pulling  the investors' money months ago. IOW the money had to go somewhere as its not like they were buying materials to produce something, investing in real estate for offices,....etc.

Just my quick/random opinions of course.


Crpto and crypto-related companies Im still tracking  and or invested in(no particular order)


BTC, META1, BCH, ETH, WBTC, DOGE, LTC, RIOT, WBTC.PA, ADA-USD, DOT1-USD, SHIB-USD.

Unfortunately all except META1 are down over past 30 days.
Hopefully the tides will turn after this cleansing of weaker and or bad companies, and the market will be stronger going forward. 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Probably the best market investment advice I've ever received was from my Greeaattt Uncle Confucius:

"Grasshopper, when the tides go out we get to see who's swimming naked."


More later,

Hi AsymBacGuy

I used your methodology above  yesterday(3 shoes). I will preface the results by saying I did not wait for the setup to fail once & then implement, as I "think" you have suggested  or at least insinuated in this or similar regimes.

I implemented as they presented. Results: Shoe #1: 2/3 winners, shoe #2:  0/1 winners, shoe #3: 1/1 winners.

Shoes #2 and #3 only presented the setup once. I didn't play shoe#3 to the end.

All wagers were on B. 

All of the shoes had established a shelf at mostly toward four iar for same-side streaks as well as Opps. Meaning things of 3 were going to 4 slightly more than not.
I also perceived that type of profile lending itself to this type of keyhole-spot wagering. Meaning the shoe had already displayed a desire to go >=3+ , thus far.
So far so good. 

Now this leads to my follow-up questions I should have asked you a few days ago but simply had not considered the following setup would be encountered. 

Q1: What are your thoughts when we get the desired set up (e.g., BBB PP BBT  )?
When we get that T do you abandon this setup and wait for the next setup down shoe? Do you wager one more try after the T? Would you be more inclined to wager after that  T if the first leg was 4iar vs 3iar, example  >=BBBB?

Q2: Similar example to above and lets say we won on our initial try, the next column continued with a PP, and turned and now the third B column in this 5-column setup has now presented BB? . Do you also wager again for this 3rd B column for B2 to also go B3? Example BBB PP BBB PP BB?    OR   is the 3rd B column NA in this regime?


Thx in advance,