AsymBacGuy--

I like how you worded this.

My difficulty is how to apply this "clustering and limiting affect" most efficiently, that is, during its earliest occurrence and not ex post facto .


"...- there's a dependency between back to back outcomes, privileging a clustering effect as key cards cannot be distributed proportionally along any shoe unless voluntarily placed.
That is most of the outcomes considered by different random walks are sensitive to what happened in the same shoe, getting limiting values of relative frequency more restricted than what a pure random world dictates. ..."


Continued Success,

Excellent and spot on.

I agree 8OR9, George C was my favorite. He would be even more potent in todays environment.

continued success,

Thx alrelax

Great list--I agree with most.

Some of the most important IMO:

     6)  You have to Lose to Win.

          Same as in life: we often learn more from the strikeouts then we do the home runs.

     
     17)   Employing a Stop Loss and a Stop Win, without a complete money management method that will only frustrate,
     confuse and make most all players go down the wrong roads.

          Yes indeed---To me personally controlling (limiting) the the loss is most important. Im against limiting the
          upside(however,  thou shall not be greedy). 


Continued Success To All,

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Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx for answering my question from (reply #399) above.






Continued Success To All,

Thx alrelax for taking the time for responding with a play-by-play. that's interesting as well as instructive.

"...Also, those 2 ties were both natural ties, so it was like, here comes the bankers side coming forth.  Pressed 2nd and third after ties, stayed on players.  Cut way down on the 5th player..."
     I agree the two ties in P c1 would have caused a pause(at least for me betting into a potential P run). Sometimes if I have pressed a wager several times into a significant pos progression I will set it aside and stay on the streak at my 1.0 base unit level when I have situation causing pause, then reinsert the pressed-up wager when my interpretation of current events has more clarity.
    Once we saw the P c2 run the P c3/Pc4 streaks would have been easier to justify betting for P to run upward to 4th-6th. Of course then our brains would have been thinking logically: "there's no way P is going to have four consec columns approaching 6iar,...etc" ... or at least my brain would have been trying to convince this isn't typical.

Again, this was from jump street.  Yes there are plenty of runs in the beginning, but not multiple columns such as this.

The others 'at times' see various insights that allow themselves to profit nicely and quickly.  That sticks with me when I play.  For example, a few nights prior to this one of the regular players there pointed out how every natural 8, every 3rd card total of 8, caused the subsequent hand to have the opposite side win. He pointed out around hand 30 with numerous situations.  Then the rest of the shoe held true to that situation.  Again, doesn't always happen, but when it does, it is there. 

*
"...To me, maybe not yourselves, the hardest shoes to play are the 1s, 2s and 3s, a streak of 4 to 7 here and there and everything mixed in the way most shoes are, is super hard...."
     Perfectly stated.


So in hindsight Im sure u played it about as efficiently as possible. The other players that bought in for the similar amounts as you (the players betting for B streaks or the cuts) would probably be happy to trade their ROI with yours.

The others bought in repeatedly bought in for multiple times my buy in each time they did.

Thx again/continued success

Hi alrelax
Thx for TR  /toteboard pic

re: Reply #397

Gravy train shoe for sure.

On the first two P columns did you do your oft mentioned pospros (1326 or the 1248 16,1...etc, or other?), and did u continue with  your pospro through the 5th/6th hits on the first two P column runs? 
How or did these initial P runs affect your wagering approach when the even better P-runs presented in P columns 3/4???

Without knowing anything else I likely would NOT have continued with my largest wager on Player C1 hit # 5th/6th, however, after the first two P colum runs the 3rd/4th P runs that showed immediately following your toteboard pic,  would have been difficult to stay off. Especially with such precedence showing at that strength level.
....just hypothesizing as maybe dif opinion if more info, ..who knows as kinda the ol hindsight always converges toward 20/20.

*I know its easy to monday-morning quarterback a game like this


Thx again/continued success,

Thx AsymBacGuy
Good posts/ several good points in the last couple essays--I like that you also take time in your posts to give specific examples.

"...Virtually speaking the probability that every shoe will not present a back to back same pattern on different random walks is zero.
I mean that at some point 1 must be followed by another 1 (2s and 3s as enemies), 2 by another 2 (3s as enemy) and 3 by another 3 (2s as enemy).


re: 3 by another 3 (2s as enemy).[/b]
     Q: Is your example referring to  (BBB: P BBB)  or  (BBB:PPP)

Thanks

Thx AsymBacGuy for answering my question.

You have many excellent thoughts.


"...Thus we must set up the 'limiting values of relative frequency' of certain outcomes capable to get results more balanced or, even better, more oriented to get a back to back situation.

In a word, setting up multiple random walks more likely to form low variance lines.
..."


Continued Success,

Hi alrelax

Good thoughts/I agree 100%.

"...The mistake made is you see what you desire turning off factual based or biased available opportunities to Hope and Greed, because your mind immediately turns to:

1)  Making previous losses back;

2)  Losing sight of what is possible and focusing on unrealistic win amounts.

It is a vicious and a mean cycle that the majority of players do not understand. Once you understand it, you will add so much of an advantage that your game will change if you are strong enough to play when only within the Bias and knowing when you are outside of it while you are at the table. ..."

IMO #1 above is the biggest culprit for many players.

re: Bias and the sentence in bold--I concur, although I do see many players actually pick up on A bias. However, its easy for us to fall into the trap of  just continuing to look for the "same exact bias" thereafter in the remainder of the shoe. Im still guilty of that sometimes.
I also think there are (good, better, best) types of bias. This is an area I sometimes look back in hindsight and think "how did I miss that". Typically its because I was focused on the current bias(which was good or better (with blinders on) and miss what was the much larger /more pronounced best bias happening around or within my current bias.

e.g., Last week I was wagering deep/heavy +progression into a (pppp b ppp b pp b p) string and although I was happy to catch 6-7 wins in a row, make > buyin,..etc. What I had failed to see was the actual much larger bias which was that b singles had started prior to the current bias I had spotted. B1 and had actually produced 11 consec B singles where all I would have been required to do was: See a B1 bet a P ,...etc.




Continued Success To All,

Hi Albalaha

"...I have created a few money management that can survive even 5 SD below mean without seeking thousands of chips and win thereafter in average times, without seeking clumping wins...."   


I have created a few money management that can survive even 5 SD below mean
     I believe you as I know u have been working diligently on this or related project for many years.Congrats.


that can survive even 5 SD below mean without seeking thousands of chips and win thereafter in average times, without seeking clumping wins...."  

     Q1: Does your method win proportionally more for surviving additional SDs of - Variance? e.g., Would your net earnings for surviving a -5SD shoe vs a -3SD shoe be 5:3 ?  or other ratio?   

     Q2: Another way of viewing it since you do a negpro: Im obviously guessing one needs a proportionality of more chips to survive a -5SD shoe vs lets say a -3SD shoe (e.g., Chips needed for -5sd=50 and chips needed for -3sd=30,...etc or whatever ___________) ?
     So my question: Is this(#chips required) somewhat proportional and a f(x) of the number of -SD one chooses to survive. If yes give an example.



Thx/continued success.

Hi CameronGraham

I like the way you think.

"... Few people understand that it is better to try different slots where you will have bonuses than to use one bonus at your favorite casino and no longer have this advantage in the future. In such a big competition, there are enough good alternatives.   ..."


Continued Success,

Thx AsymBacGuy
Youre doing a great job detailing the CR. I appreciate your thorough explanations/then also giving us examples to make your points.


One sentence Im not 100% comprehending  and need a little extra clarification on:

"...In a word the 0/S ratio (0= first 3 and/or consecutive 3s; S=superior gaps) are moving around a strong balanced world (very low sd values), no matter how whimsically are shuffled the cards.   ..."

Can you give an example for the words in BOLD. Thank you.


Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy
Thx for CR examples. 

"...Next time we'll see many other spots getting an astounding probability to appear, no matter how the s.tu.pi.d math experts keep to state. ..."

Looking forward to the next post



Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy
Thx for your elaborate response in reply#369 above. I  agree/especially with the last 3-4 sentences.

"... The perfect plan would be to spot a betting line capable to get 7-10 all W sequences per shoe that must come out by a well higher degree of probability than what math values dictate.
Of course we need to wager two times each spot toward getting a more likely scenario.
And naturally whenever a shoe starts with a negative spot, we can't reach that aim.  ..."


Also , in the paragraph regarding the cockroach road(CR).

"... Summarizing, the cr is the best indicator about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted along any shoe.
Then it's up to us to assess whether a single or a series of  'key' results was/were mathematically shifted to prolong a b or r streak or to cut it off. ..."


I've read much of what u have written re: the CR road.

This is an area my skillset needs to improve.  I agree with much of your writings re: the CR road /its potential for  suggesting certain future events being more(or less) likely.

However, my difficulty is in being able to assign a specific(numerical value) on that perceived  increase(or decrease) probability % to a degree that would affect my decision prior to the very next event. Of course , ex post facto--Im 100% accurate just like everybody else at the table. 
Thx for writing on this topic.




Continued Success,