Great post AsymBacGuy

I agree with your comments about #2. Also, IMO #4 is correlated with #2.

I also see Ties as often contributing to our decision-making process and "clustering" (In a negative or confusing manner), at least for me.

Continued Success,

THX,

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Good thread and posts asym/alrelax

asym in post #733:

"...5) Baccarat is a game of numbers

At gambling games when you provide numbers you look smarter, especially if numbers derive from complicated math formulas where 99.9% of common people won't know a bit about. ..."
    That is funny/very true   

AND asym states in same post:

"...On the other end, without numbers we can't estimate whether our method may get a decent chance to win itlr, but for obvious reasons 'the long run' is shorter than the infinite field where math formulas apply.

Simplyfing the subject, either a given method/approach works or it doesn't and we do not need millions of shoes tested to verify this.
And imo the only way to ascertain this is to assess if our method will get more wins than losses that in another way means that wins and losses are restricted within 'ranges' getting lower sd values than expected...."

    The last part of the last sentence is how one wins the ballgame/ where our efforts should be focused.


Continued Success,

Thank you AsymBacGuy.
-------------------------------------------


Bac Money Management

In the following I will present my personal thoughts/preferences for MM of my buyin. I will try to avoid some very important and related subtopics from this very broad subject:MM. They too are part of my overall game but will i sidestep these other areas of MM so I don't make a long post longer.

To my thinking MM is extremely important and that along with the above subtopics must "fit" ones "own" overall gameplan. All the parts must fit together like a glove so our money (each wager) can work as a team (buy in) and not as separate individuals.  Just like a basketball, soccer, or football team. If one player (wager) is performing poorly we need another to overperform. 

 

Most importantly and first/foremost. Identify your win goal for this buyin and this buyin only, and every single action we take must be in pursuit of that goal.

 

As I've mentioned in previous posts most of my casinos only have one or two tables and often the only option is $50--$2K Tmax.  A couple offer 25—1K, and a couple $50/100--$5K, and a couple Cas offer 10K Tmax . Though the 5K is often only on Fri/Sat night and very seldom during the week or days. The 10K tables are 6.5 hours away so not relevant for most of my daily play.

Thus, my methodology is based on the 50—2000 table unless stated otherwise. Any variation and I simply raise (or lower) the Buyin and base unit proportional to Tmax at the respective table.

So, my buyin is 2K and I make my base unit $60. If at a 100—5K table buyin/base unit (150) is proportional and so forth.

I like my BU (base unit) at increments of 60 (I.e. 120,150,180,240,...etc)because its an easy metric for some of my wagering regimes, compounding, and fractional betting scales ( 1,½,1/3,¼,1/5, et al). More on this fractional betting later on when I speak about compounding along a smooth curve.

The selection of a buyin for $2k at a 2K Tmax table, and $60 base unit is mainly due to my theseis: The max I can win on any one W is $2K and the max the casino will ever win from me in any one shoe is 2K.  Though it will take the Cas more than one win and often at least three or more consecutive bad shoes to extract that from me. 

My modus operandi. How can I most efficiently win >= my buyin >=once PRIOR to the casino winning my buyin <=once, when I run across several consecutive bad shoes.

This brings me to my next topic (How I handle bad shoes), and a very important part of my M.O. 

The next paragraph is one of the main attributes of my overall game. This is one of my best moves as I seek to limit my losing shoes/sessions and win on the upper end knowing my losses can only go to –0--. In other words I want my losses on  the really bad shoes (say –3 SD) to be <= to my losses on the reallyreallyhorriblebad shoes (say –4.5SD) as I will be busted and not be around that shoe when and if it ever does approach a 

Variance of (-4.5SD, -6sd,-8Sd,...etc.). I also know I will also see shoes in my favor (+2 , to +3SD, to +4.5SD,...etc.). So set limits on my downside and never ever try to tame the Variance (or volatility) on the upside. We shall see both regardless of one's skill set. It does not matter if one is doing progression, regression, flat bet, or anything else we want to call it.

 It's my opinion winning (or losing) with a progression compared with a regression or with a flat bet , or any other has more to do with one's tolerance for volatility than it has to do with a person's statistical capacity to win money.  If one has an advantage greater than the H.E. (most of you do), then we want as much money as we possible wagered as often as we can. I'm not talking about being a gunslinger and just slinging bets of all shapes/sizes without a focused goal in mind.

 

 

How I handle bad shoes: My Best Move.

     When I bust a buyin (regardless of if in one shoe or three or more) I do the following. I force a dry smile and state to my table comrades: "Good luck everyone sees you in a little while". That's nothing else.

I stand up, scoot my chair in, remove any water bottles, and start walking away. As I walk away, I take my R hand and reach over my L shoulder to give myself two pats on the back. WHY? 

I congratulate myself for not going on tilt and limiting my loss on a very bad shoe to <=1 buyin. I have never (n-e-v-e-r) rebought into a lost-buyin shoe the second time. I simply note how long until a new shoe will be opened at that table or any other table nearby and take 10-15mins to go to restroom, walk around, ...etc. THEN, I go to the cage and get another buyin and look for a table (even the previous one) that is prepping to open a new shoe.

 

 

Exchanges:

We are constantly "exchanging" Ws/Ls streaks with the casino: WLWWLLWLLLWWWLWWWWW,..etc.

Winning and losing is all about the order. Regardless of the order of my W/L I want to be slightly better (moving toward my Win Goal) with each W at the end of these exchanges of L series. If Im losing (LLLW) I want that W to put my stack in a better position than prior to its commencement. Example: -60,-60,-60,then win @ +65= Net –115. That $5 may seem miniscule. However, that is 5/60 =.083 ,   or another way of viewing is if  I lost 3iar =180 so 5/180= .0277 . Recall H.E. is approx .012 . So, in the above exchange the Cas did not receive its full compensation. Nor did that measly $5 jeopardize my buy in.

Same with a win streak of WWWL or any other variation of W/Ls. I never stand still (meaning I don't flat bet with 0 fluctuations on steaks of W or L), and after another 3:1 or 1: 3 , streak I want more in my stack vs prior to when this exchange started.

My M.O. is to do an aggressive Pos pro and slow negpro as I attempt to "nick" away at the Cas win/ compound my streak of winning series. We will see W/L streaks both the same as forum alumni albalaha has diligently told us.  I concur.

 

 

Press-To-Our-Win

*I will preface the following paragraphs with: I'm constantly monitoring my stacks, so I always know if Im below even or ahead and by how much. Though I never wager less than my base unit I know I can't get ahead until I get even. I never wager less than my base unit as I don't want to be in a position where I need more Ws than Ls to be even. If I'm ahead I still wager at least my BU. I strive to keep more than 50% of my L wagers near my base unit.  One way I do this is to not start a pospro if I'm in a signif deficit or let's say I haven't won very many wagers yet, or maybe I lost my first 3-4 wagers and then finally get a W. . I don't start a pospro if I just lost three and won one. Im still in a losing streak, not in sync with outcomes yet, and simply stumbled onto a W. 

Striving to keep Ls at or near base unit. This an easy task and I'm fairly good at this. Meaning we are likely to lose approx ½  of our wagers the first time they are wagered. So, approx  50% of first-time wagers never get out of the gate. 

     

     My goal is  press to my win. Meaning I press through the win. I do not press a couple times, stand still a couple times, reduce $5, add $5, wait until I collect at this or that level, start pressing again and after a 10streak of consecutive Ws Im almost even.  W streaks are difficult to come by and IMO a pospro player must press early and often(meaning press something every single   time, even if only $5)).   

The pospro bettors' success is determined by what we are doing on wager#1 and wager#2 and press#1 as everything out a say t + Wager#4/#5 and the compounding spinoff, is largely determined by what we were doing at Press#1. WHY?

My personal view is as follows and I think all will agree with the obvious on wins in a row:

We will win 1iar >= win 2iar >= win3iar>= win 4iar >= win 5iar ...etc.

 

So IMO: We should make Press#1% >= Press #2% >= Press#3% >= Press#4% >=Press#5%, ...etc.

 

*Reminder: When doing a pospro remember we will need two more Wins to be where we are right now (regarding net W monies). So, I'm not suggesting never ever stop doing a pospro. Im just saying get to where your going as fast/efficiently as possible. Then if one must do a stutter step, or regress , just make sure one always handles this stage the same way (throughout the whole buyin). 

Re: changing directions. Regressing is a fine tool, however, I'm against changing directions more than once such as presspresspresspressRegressPresspress, ...etc (See car example in earlier post above). Also,  I would want to make sure that peak wager was as a minimum sufficiently above our "avg" wager size (and optimally >=50% of buyin size or we have a net >50% BI), prior to changing directions. At least get to our predetermined win goal (even if < 50%BI, whatever yours may be). Mainly, be consistent with this through the whole shoe and that buyin.

 

Re:

Press#1% >= Press #2% >= Press#3% >= Press#4% >=Press#5%, ...etc.

I like everything after my base bet to be a function of that base bet size (unless one wants to implement an exponential press regime—which I will talk about later if enough interest). The point I'm trying to make is don't change our gameplan (and goal) at mid game.

An example of the above press regime and why I either start or make my wager quickly get to an increment of 60. For example, let's say at a 50min table I had wagered a base unit $55 I would likely just press to 120, ...etc. So any future presses could follow a smooth curve.

I like the starting series to be an increment of 60(LCD for 1,2,3,4,5,6), and because of the ease in wagering a fractional press with more precision in the early stages.

Examples:

Let's say I start with a base bet of 60 and win. Looking above I see press#1% >=press#2%. Therefore, I wouldn't lead with a press of $5 as I would be locked into never pressing more than $5 (and since I like to press something on every W, I don't want to limit my pressing options). So,

Let's say I press 100%: Bet 1=60, bet 2=120, (See rules above) so I know bet 3 must press but can't press > than but could press =% the first press. I could press to 240 but let's say I'm ahead in this shoe, hit my win goal,  so I shall press 50%. So now :bet1=60,bet2 was 120, bet 3=150(+50% of my base unit=$30), I win this 3rd bet IAR and my net-to-my-stack so far on this initial investment of $60 is:  +90,+150,=+240, and I still have a $150 wager and "my option" as to what I do with it. Note I didn't collect anything on first hit(nemesis).

I will press ($20 which is 33% of my base unit—Not a function of the current wager size), so my next wager would be $170. So as we can see the wager is getting larger/larger, with my addendum monies getting smaller/smaller fast.   

I view each wager as "what is my investment in this wager, what is casinos investment in this wager, and what is my potential win. I want the casino to be invested >50% ASAP as I'm willing to let them win that last wager. However, I want them to be mostly winning their own money back "AFTER" they have paid me several times on my initial investment as well as their initial investment. I don't have to let them win that final bet, however, IMO we have our investment out of it. Furthermore, after that 3rd hit the final press anywhere on down the line where we would lose has been generated by the earlier compounds. 

*Note: When I speak of Win streaks seldom do I mean consecutive wins on one event ( same side, opps, ..etc) as I find longer W streaks by catching a couple here, setting it aside, and jumping into another event, or shoe, or casino, as I keep that Winning wager going as long as possible. I also caution you again  not to change your gameplan midstream. That is,  don't win several times like above (& press in a decreasing%), and after 5-6 wins go "WTH" Im ahead so I shall parlay the whole thing and see what happens---We just gave back all our compounds if it loses as the casino negates each level with one single W. My thinking is to play in the short term but know we are playing a long term game. 

 

My main premise is to press in a methodical manner so that press curve(if plotting on a graph) is a smooth curve and not jagged. You can design whatever decreasing angle of curve you want but if we make it jagged then we are making it all about timing (pulling it down or press big) at just the right time. I find the above very efficient as it gets our money out quick yet keeps that wager growing. 

 

The main metrics I keep in my mind's eye as I go through a shoe:

Buyin, ½ buyin, 20% of buyin, base unit size, , press%, win goal, H.E. Everything I do is designed with these objectives at the forefront. 

*Im not saying I always press exactly as shown above. However, regardless if doing something like above or an exponential regime, et al,  the following is always the underlying foundation.

Press#1% >= Press #2% >= Press#3% >= Press#4% >=Press#5%, ...etc.

 

Most importantly press so that you hit "Your" target more often than not. I recommend utilizing our whole buyin--Exhaust your buyin. In other words use the full force of your buyin in our battle with the casino. A mistake I made early on is that I would unknowingly or unintentionally utilize only about 30-40% of buyin yet try to win a substantial amount. I had a very high winning-shoe %, yet seldom won > half my buyin(though risking 100% of BI),  and or I sliced/diced myself to a loss trying to protect my buyin.

 

When I lose a buyin(and I do ), I want the casino to know they have been in a battle/ they had to fight me tooth/nail to extract it from me. So when that casino CEO looks down from his windowed office and sees us entering the casino. We want him to say: 

"Oh Sheat!".

 

 

Continued Success To All,

that's an adequate ROI. This is similar to how my Bac parlays perform.

I found it interesting the Book is offering to buy his bet before the final leg. Would you take the buyout?



https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/news/2022/12/15/parlay-bettor-on-track-for-557000-if-france-beat-argentina-in-world-cup-final/

Thanks ABG for above post. Very good.

One part Im not clear on what you mean.


You say : "...Naturally 'peaks' and 'flat' situations are the by product of the actual card distribution. More precisely they are in direct relationship of the key cards concentration/dilution parameter, a process completely dependent as once key cards are removed (or conversely live) in the deck patterns will be affected in some way..."
Vulgarly speaking, we can't hope to get a pattern to stop when it's in the 'peak' mood but we can safely assume that a kind of 'flat' situation will happen for quite long...."

re: the blue sentence.
Are you speaking about the area of shoe where (Specific Cards Removed) --ratio to-- (Total Cards Remaining) makes a sudden and often short-duration change??? Often it seems to be about ~~40%--50% penetration into the shoe.
(An example would be where let's say a greater than expected number of 8/9s have already been removed and then suddenly in two consecutive hands six more 8/9s get removed. Thus, immediately making the shoe significantly low on 8/9s  vs Total Remaining Cards).

OR

Are you speaking about something totally different?

Thanks,

BAC Acronyms/Terms (Add yours here)

 

Like many of you I often hurriedly type or post from my phone and often use acronyms for convenience.   Below are some of the more commonly used ones related to Bac, Math, and general gaming terms.  I encourage you to add yours. You can even make up your own. Thanks in advance.

 

IAR—In a row

Wiar—Wins in a row

P—Capital P for Player.  lower case p for player sitting at the table

H.E. or HE—House Edge

SD – Standard Deviation

V—Variance

EV—Expected Value. +EV—Positive expected value

Ai—All In

AMC—All my chips

Ante—A fee charged to players before cards are dealt.

BB—Bad beat: A lost hand that was favored to win.

B&M—Bricks and Mortar casino vs online et al

BI—Buyin

Bk—Bankroll

BR—Bank Roll

BRM—Bankroll Management

BC—Burn cards

BM—Bet Max or Tmax=Table max

CSM—Continuous Shuffle Machine

CA—Casino Advantage. Also see H.E. or house edge.

EGM—Electronic Gaming Machine

EVM—Even Money Bet, paid 1:1.

FT—Full Table

Fish—The sad dejected player. If you can't spot them at your table? Its probably you.

FB—Flat betting. A player that cosistently bets the same amount.

Flea—A sponger. The player that expects everything for nothing, lie big comps for placing an occasional small bet.

GC—Gaming Commission

GAI—Going All In.

OS—Optimal Strategy

Paint—Another word for face card.

PB—Pit Boss.

Pigeon—A newbie player, rookie. Often lacks sophistication/finesse in that game.

RNG—Random Number Generator

Sawdust Joint—Often refers to a rough casino or may be small, low Tmax, sweat joint and or poorly run.

Tilt—Someone on a losing streak and yet continues.

VIP—Very important person. Often a a very large bettor.

Whale—A big player with big buyin and big wagers.

KFBW—Kungfubac For the Big Win—Ok I just made that up.

 

Great read /thx ASB

"Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck"
     I agree with the premise we win with skill vs luck. However, sometimes I need a little more
than 1% luck to get the W,   . Meaning sometimes I finish a session and avoid a loss or only get a small win and realize "I was very lucky" and did not deserve the "tie". However, I gladly accept the favor. Baccarat mimics life in many ways.

"4) Baccarat is a game of ranges, that is about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted to mathematically provide some more likely results, so forming more likely patterns."

     Yes indeed my friend. I concur.

Im looking forward to your next installment in this fine thread.



Continued Success

Press To Our Win /Never Stand Still (1st in a series)

My beliefs:

If one utilizes a fast pospro and compounding then one will bust their buyin more frequently (vs flat bet or slower pospro/and smaller or no compounding) , though will have greater potential for very large wins (>=buyin), along with consolation prizes of smaller, yet meaningful sizes. 

Be Aware: This could require some heavy lifting as one carries their bags of loot /stacks of banded 100s out of the casino. 

 

 

WARNING: The following is not recommended for women, children, or small men.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In future posts I will address and clarify some of the following in specific threads (if there is enough interest). Addressing individually or in small grouping of like topics may help us discuss in more detail.  Hopefully, some of my thoughts will spur an idea or two for all parties so that we can help each other's game. I'm constantly striving to improve my game each day. 

Re: Pospro

My main premise on Positive Progressions:

Pr1% >=Pr2%>=Pr3% (Read : As a function of my base (or initial bet in that series:

Press One percentage greater or equal to PressTwo percentage greater or equal to PressThree percentage, ....etc.

This premise is obviously based on the thought:

I will win: 1iar >2iar >3iar (Read: I will win One In A Row, more often then Two In A Row, more often then Three In A Row ) . This applies regardless of if one is betting all wagers in the same streak or across events or across shoes. 

Though the above may seem overly simplistic and obvious I find it important that we press(or regress) along a smooth and predetermined curve that is fitted to hit our >=target.

*Compounding is our friend and an important ally for winning.

*Compounding is often ignored, misunderstood, or simply not utilized most efficiently by many players.

*One can compound (or spin off) a % greater than house edge (HE) with minimal risk to buyin. I'm not saying change HE(as its written in), I'm simply saying we can neutralize some or all of the buyin erosion from HE.  I will discuss various formulas and % to achieve this. IMO we should have varied % progressions as a function (Fx) of where we are in that streak and the current ratio to our win, buyin, and bankroll. As well as where we are going with that wager. One should always know where that wager will be (3-5 wagers from now if pospro) and what will be next bet if this wager loses right here. As well as how many bets (and sizes) will I need to make up this current deficit. 

 

*Some players that do utilize compounding often use it against themselves with greater force (compound their losses against their own buyin) yet will not compound into a winning streak of a similar probability. IMO its perfectly fine to do both(a pospro/negpro) just understand the speed(acceleration) of each and its effect on our buyin.

 However, one should be willing to implement the pospro with the same zealousness as the negpro. In other words (IOW), if one is willing to live and die with a pospro then one mustn't kill said pospro when it does reach its higher ranges. One absolutely must be unafraid to win and win big. REMINDER: One isn't required to kill the pressed-up-wager just because we think that event is nearing the end. Nor are we required to kill it because it's the end of the shoe, or we have hit table max(Tmax)...etc. I see players on an almost daily basis battle a shoe(s) in a deficit, and finally claw their way back to even or slightly ahead and: "color coming in". We should never end anything when on an uptick---Its ok to end a shoe without betting to the end of a W streak. If hesitant just set that pressed-up wager aside for later compounding and finish current W streak at >= 1.0 base unit, or no bet.

 

     *That's one thing I admire about negpro bettor's vs pospro as its my observation that negpro players are dogmatic and without much hesitation will push out that final (and potentially buyin-ending wager) on that final tier. On the other hand, I frequently watch my fellow pospro bettors "chicken out" even when the majority of the wager size is the casinos own money.

*I primarily utilize a positive progression(pospro) with compounding to achieve my wins. I generally combine a fast/efficient pospro with a slower negpro when on the unavoidable L streaks. My goal is to strive to get on the casinos' monies asap in my exchange of Ws/Ls. My perception is that I perform more optimally by using both(negpro/pospro). I ponder at times if I could win consistently without the power of compounding. 

*Compounding can be utilized to compound bet-to-bet(I.e., increase the wager size as its winning), bet-to-buyin(increase buyin as a function (%) of net bet wins, and bet-to-buyin-to bankroll simultaneously. (All three).

*A players aversiveness to risk ones whole buyin is inversely (or close to it) proportional to one's unwillingness to win ones >=buyin.  We should always strive to win >=buyin or at least >=50% of buyin (if we are willing to give them a chance at our whole buyin). I find that even when I don't reach a large win goal, I often still hit a small or moderate W by striving for that loftier objective.

*Pressing (and regressing) is most efficient when compounding is along a smooth curve (visually if observing along a graph curve). If not on a smooth incremental curve, then we are incorporating a "timing or guessing effect" and our wins or losses will be mostly due to "if" we guess correctly at the perfect moment.

*RE: Never Stand Still*. It's my opinion we should never stand still regardless of if doing a pospro , negpro, and or regression as one should always be looking to improve our current standing with any single win, even if it's only a $5 improvement (*with the exception of making sure  >50% of losing wagers are at 1.0 base unit). 

Thus, my theory it's easier to win with a larger base unit (due to the $5 min increment). Sometimes this can be too much at a lower base unit. E.G.,  If one's min bet at their home casinos is low (say $25, which is smallest I've observed since covid, at my casinos)  I would recommend betting at least a couple increments ($10=2 increments) above that minimum, and if your budget allows try to wager a base unit much larger. Contrary to what many think it's easier to win with a larger base bet size. 

*If one is afraid to win (or win big—meaning >=buyin or as a minimum >½ buyin)then a pospro and utilization of a compounding scheme is not recommended. 

*A pospro bettor utilizing a compounding regime can also utilize a regressing regime (compounding back into their stack) and or start charging the casino a vig(or Commish). Either way (compounding or decompounding) should be implemented along a smooth curve vs an erratic emotion-driven ratio)

*Utilizing a pospro and compounding regime to our win is much the same as driving a car and trying to reach our destination as quickly/ efficiently as possible. It is imperative to have a very clear plan with predetermined objective(s).

1) Do I want to travel from point A to point B as quickly as possible while ignoring fuel usage (chips –buyin). Do I have more than just one objective in this race?

2) Is this a race? In other words, is there a bonus for reaching my destination as soon as possible? Is there a speed limit? Is there a limit on how many tries I will likely get? Is there a max speed limit? What is my optimal speed to reach  ""{MY}""  destination or win goal. 

3) Is my time allowed to reach my destination limited? What happens if I have poor mpg "run out of fuel(chips)" before reaching my destination? Do I have more fuel? How much fuel am I willing to use to reach my destination. Is my fuel cost greater then what I win when I do reach my destination? How often will I reach my destination (on avg) with this predetermined amount of gas in the tank? Do I need more gas at the beginning of trip so that I don't get stranded >50% of my trips?

4. What is the optimal speed and or average speed to reach my destination as efficiently as possible. Would a turbo booster at times help with my objective and reaching my destination in a timely manner. When is the best time to push the button on the turbo?

5. I find it important when driving our pospro/compounding car that we don't change directions more than once. IOW, It is most important to utilize momentum while accelerating our vehicle. It would not be efficient use of our time and fuel if we accelerated toward our destination, then suddenly slammed on the breaks at say 50mph and slowed back down to 25 mph, then accelerated again back up to >50mph. Same with betting: If one must regress(and nothing wrong with slowing our acceleration), then continue slowing down at the remaining change-of-speed stages.  Just make sure we originally reached a high enough speed that even though we are slowing down (or even cruising) we still have enough momentum to reach our destination. When changing directions more than once we just gave back our speed gained from the earlier momentum. 

 

My greattttt Uncle Confucius once told me: "Grasshopper, It's not about how fast you win, it's how well you win fast."

 

 

Continued Success to All,

Does anyone play in Macao(or have you)? Thanks.


https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/disappointing-gaming-revenue-in-macao-saddle-casinos-2686323/

Hi Asymbacguy

Several good thoughts and as always appreciate your fine posts.

re: Your thoughts/question below:

" ...For what I've grasped from your precious writings I guess you start to think to raise (minimally) your standard bet after a positive period of some length.
Say you're crossing an unfortunate long negative sequence just after you've raised your standard bet.
I'm asking: do you stay at that level or reverting back to an inferior step?
Or maybe by diluting more the betting frequency when in 'doubt'? ,,,"

I made the reference to the Kelly Criterion to give an example in my response to your original post re: flat betting.
I was simply stating that I would be in more agreement with one utilizing a Flat Bet if one adjusted said Flat Bet higher as a function of bankroll growth (Meaning as buyin/bankroll increased so should the bet size similar to a kelly criterion %).
I typically do not wager a flat bet / not an advocate for a non-adjusting static flat bet.

re: Kelly Criterion(KC). I feel Kelly Criterion is a very important metric/ helpful for us to consider. However, IMO the difficulty arises as we don't always know our precise advantage. Furthermore, as you correctly stated above : We could sometimes go as long as 5-6 shoes without our advantage shining through.

So "IF" my goal was to play as many hands as possible on one buyin or bankroll with hopes of doubling buyin or bankroll as well as equally having a goal of not busting said buyin-bankroll, --and--

"IF" I was extremely risk averse to losing my buyin (I am not) , then I would utilize some metric of the Kelly Criterion or whatever my verified advantage (though I would be more aligned with half kelly or maybe half my advantage). Coupled with a constant adjustment of the bet size (up and down) as the bankroll went up/down.

Your specific question: "Say you're crossing an unfortunate long negative sequence just after you've raised your standard bet.
I'm asking: do you stay at that level or reverting back to an inferior step?"

If crossing and unfortunate long negative sequence I would reduce back toward my original KC increment though I would not go below this initial increment (even if the bankroll dipped below my initial level). My reasoning is I don't wan t to require more wins to win back my losing wagers. Reminder too, if we are wagering Kelly Criterion or similar we are basing that on the premise we have an advantage. Therefore we shouldn't be too overly concerned with drawdowns if flat betting.

I realize Im getting a little off topic.
    *Side Note: The issue I have with a Kelly Criterion bet metric and implementing after every decision(W or L), is that our smallest adjustment is $5. So lets say we think our KC criterion or "advantage" is (.012 ) which is approximately the casinos written-in edge. Then to adjust $5 after every decision we would need a base unit of approx $415 (415/5=.012). Ideally (and just my opinion), one would want their buyin to approximate $35000 (35000/415= ~~.012).

Not a bad method if ones objective is to play a very long time on one buyin. Though one would also need a very long time to double their buyin(and it may never happen).


Continued Success,

Thanks alrelax, ADulay, Asymbacguy , et al for the pos wishes.

asymbacguy:
"If we have found an advantage, best way we'll exploit it is by flat betting as we significantly reduce the variance."

     My thinking is that if one has an advantage (verified not just the V swaying) greater than the house edge we want as much money as possible on said advantage as often as possible(as many compounds as possible).

When you say "flat betting" to reduce the Variance I would agree.

 However, re: flat betting with a verified advantage I would be more in agreement if your term flat betting means increasing as a function of our buyin or bankroll. Meaning as the buyin/bankroll increased so does the "flat bet" increase.

If your term "flat betting" means always keeping the bet size the same regardless of buyin increasing  or decreasing, then I would be in less agreement.

For example:
Lets say if one starts with a $2000 buyin and $50 wager size (.025) and one wins +400. So now buyin is 2400. I would prefer the wager size to also increase to $60(.025) vs remaining at the original flat bet size of $50. Still a flat bet though now a function of buyin.

The $60 is still a flat bet(meaning it doesn't change within the shoe), yet it has upward potential "or growth" and compounding into our buyin/bankroll, (Especially if one has a verified advantage greater than house edge). Most players do in my opinion although most players may not perceive it(their advantage) when Variance is swaying (-) against their bet selection. Thus they go on tilt or abandon their methodology when it was really just a little blip.

To my thinking we want growth (or compounding) of our advantage vibrating through our bet, through our buyin, and through our bankroll. This compounding can be applied "bet-to-bet" or "bet-to-buyin" (as mentioned above), as it is still growing. Which is a good thing.


Continued success,

WELCOME

Welcome to KungFuBacs' section.
A little personal gaming history, theories, and beliefs to follow.

I've played Baccarat since the early 2000s (2003 or so) and this is my only game. I've played full time for approximately four years. I play mostly in USA and have well over 100 casinos within an approximate 10Min to 3hour drive near a four-state junction in the Midwest.  Most of my casinos are Indian casinos. Many only have one (or two) Bac tables and some have zero.  I strive to play 1800 hands per week (Play not necessarily wager). I mostly play during the day and weekdays and by design avoid late Friday nights and Saturday night.

Primary Wagering Mode: Positive Progression with an emphasis on compounding with precise efficiency to >= my goal.

Below are a few topics that came to mind from my personal list of gambling theories, opinions, proverbs related to gambling...etc (not in any particular order), that I find worthy of further discussion.

I find all of these topics important for one trying to develop an overall gameplan for utilization on a daily basis. I'm still striving to improve my gameplan, so addendum ideas/ strategies are welcomed.

•   Focus on managing Variance including and not limited to: Bet selection, Bet size to buyin to bankroll ratios. For the most part a successful casino investor(player) its all about Money management, patience, and discipline, AND LIMITING LOSING STREAKS/SESSIONS. They happen to all.

•   Most importantly design the above gameplan to match ones personal and specific monetary objective. This trumps everything.

•   Be unafraid to win

•   Accept losing shoes and sessions. They are inevitable. Don't dwell on them and don't strive to "make up" or catch up in the next shoe(s) or session(s). We may have that opportunity in the next shoe or session. However, we can't always bulldoze our desires into that next shoe. Though one must always be in anticipatory mode for when that makeup shoe or session shows(and it will).

•   Successful gambling must be learned by doing. Most of us probably attended post-high school education for 2-12 years to learn theory and skill in our occupation. Yet I think most of us travelled our most accelerated learning curve in the first couple years of applying (doing) that occupation. Gambling is no different in my opinion.



•   If one wants to become an expert at something a most efficient path is to seek someone that has already developed that area of expertise through experience. It does not matter if that field of study is gambler, doctor, mechanic, engineer, or electrician. Most highly skilled and successful professionals are glad to assist a less-experienced comrade in their same field. That willingness to help is also a sign one is highly skilled and a professional. All things being equal seek knowledge from that old white-haired 75yo vs that 25yo.
Though we should always believe we can learn something from everybody. Sometimes that lesson may be what not to do.

•   Reading and studying Bac, running 000s, and 000000s of sims are all helpful and that's all good and fine. However, playing with real money on that real shoe that's in front of you right now is the best teacher of all.

•   Winning ITLR (in the long run) is all about limiting our losses on the really bad shoes.  MM, patience, and discipline ITSR are important allies.

•   Never feel a need to continuously chase a losing spot. Never completely depart a winning spot.

•   Variance is our nemesis. Variance can also be our best friend and crucial to our winning.

•   One should utilize ones whole buyin if we are willing to give the casino a chance at our whole buyin. IOW its disadvantageous to only use say 30-40% of ones buyin if ones stop loss is 100% of said buyin.

•   Im an advocate for managing our casino bankroll and buyin in a similar manner to managing a small business, one's stock and investments portfolio,...etc.

•   I view my buyin as Im playing my buyin against my buyin. In other words, I'm not playing my buyin against the casinos bankroll. Im trying to win >= my buyin  prior  to losing my buyin.

•   The casino investor(player) has many advantages over the casino. For the most part the casino is required to "match" our move. We get to choose when/where to place our wager along with size. Most importantly we get to make choices  after  an event or decision has occurred.

From the gamblers rules of etiquette:

Don't complain to others about losing sessions. 90% don't care and the remaining 10% are halfway glad you lost.


Continued Success To All,

Hi 8OR9

Good reads/thx for posts.
I read a similar article on the Ftx/Sam bankman-fried fellow. I posted the link below as it appears on breitbartnews.com.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/11/11/breitbart-business-digest-Sam-bankman-fried-hoped-ftx-was-bear-stearns-but-it-was-lehman-brothers-instead/



The most important part in above link) and what I found interesting about the comparison with bear stearns/ lehman borthers financial debacle is WHY the government bailed out one entity(banks) but didn't bail out the others(FTX et al cryptos). IMO the government doesnot want crypto to compete with the USD (or not at this stage).

Its also my opinion some of these crypto exchanges/ owners of crypto exchanges/ individuals owning(&leveraging) large amounts of cryptos are now going to implement huge "preplanned" bankruptcies, and wipeout ALL of their debt under the guise(well, i was ripped off by those damn cryptos").

Their appears to be several hollywood and professional athletes also in the middle of several crypto defaults. Im thinking we will see more in next few months.

*The kicker is on or near the very same day this story started breaking on FTX/Sam bankman fried, I saw these type of headlines below optimistically touting cryptos. I wonder at times if the media and individual reporters ever listen to themselves.

Is crypto the way to fight inflation(2022)

Bitcoin vs Gold: Are cryptos the new gold





Continued Success To All/ To All A Good Week

Hi AsymBacGuy


"A large percentage of casinos' profits come from bad players attitude loving to bet huge as losers and being more prudent when winning."


I agree 100%. This is a phenomenon that I perceive is just  a part of the human psyche.  IMO it has much to do with how we are bombarded with "fear" from an early age and throughout life.
Plus, coupled with our emotions tied to money, and this can allow fear to really affect our decisions.

I see fear being utilized everyday in our lives.

e.g., Roadside assistance insurance for your roadside assistance plan,..etc.

e.g., Insurance for the possibility that our new electronic device may not last x # of years.
IMO that's what the manufacturers 2-year warranty is for. Unless its an expensive item we shouldnt have much fear about all the whatifs.

     I recently bought an extension for a lightbulb socket(basically an extension that screws into the light bulb recepticle and drops down 3"). The cost was $6.95. I immediately started receiving offers that for just $2.95 (43% of the actual cost of the gadget), I could insure that extension for two years (of course this 2.95 policy would only start after the manufacturers 2-year warranty had ended).  FEAR.
I declined.lol. I have NO FEAR, just like at the Bac table,lol..
If my $7 gadget malfunctions in 23mo Ill just toss it and go spend another $7.

Our whole society tries to "FEAR" us into a life of fear.

Same as at the Bac table. Its my opinion we fear losing too much in comparison with our emotions for accepting a big Win.

Cheers, kfb