Hi Asym/ thx for your reply to my Qs.

To clarify this following statement from your post above-- October 31, 2022, 11:21:59 PM:

"...Yet if a 'moderate' deviation is a good trigger to risk our money at, we must know that sometimes 'moderate' could shift into 'strong' instead of going toward the searched RTM effect..."

Are you saying this moderate deviation may instead of continuing with RTM may actually turn the other direction and become even stronger (meaning diverge away from TM) ?


Thx in advance,

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2022/oct/17/gambler-wins-497000-at-las-vegas-strip-casino/

Hi all,

Asymbac in your Setting Up A System post #711 above you say:

"...
In order to reduce the variance's impact acute players tend to utilize three ploys:

a) waiting that a moderate-strong unwanted deviation will come out then betting huge;

b) progressively betting by a multilayered multistep scheme just on positive spots;

c) progressively betting by a multilayered multistep scheme after negative spots of any lenght came out (so a light negative spot constitutes the trigger).

Once we've verified our possible edge, the decision to take one of the three different approach is unimportant, maybe and providing a proper bankroll a mix of the three is best.
..."


a) waiting that a moderate-strong unwanted deviation will come out then betting huge;
    Can you give a specific example of this (and how you would typically wager that spot. e.g., One bet , 2-step neg pro,...etc, or do you do a longer neg pro (say 5-step neg pro),...etc. or None of the above?  other?



Q: Are you personally more likely to wager a slow neg pro in perceived EV+ spot or if you hit that first wager are u then more likely to do a pospro (i.e., Pressing that first hit) in the same or other EV+ spot(s) later in that shoe or following shoe(s)??


Thx in advance,

Hi as / thx for all your writings(especially this one).
There are many true statements and just a few of my favorites are posted below.

I like that your essays include real-time table experiences along with statistics, not ignoring either, and blending them appropriately. IMO there is room for both in a professional Bac players regime(or there better be room for both) if one wants to survive at the tables.

I will comment more this weekend as your truisms deserve a more detailed reply.

Not in any particular order of importance:

*It's intuitive to think that if no system works any other approach wouldn't. Providing sequences are random regardless of the method utilized.
In a nutshell, successful players of both categories rely upon 'non randomness' of the outcomes.

*A system player is more adapted to the natural negative variance than any other player, mainly as he/she thinks the game as a long term succession not splitted into sessions, days or other very short term evaluations.

*If any shoe dealt would produce random successions the probability to win is 0.
Humans can't read randomness by any means, actually casinos hope their shoes to be randomly offered and somewhat hoping some shoes will produce strong deviations to be caught by players. So giving the perfect 'illusion' that the game could be beaten.

*HE can only be beaten by a bet selection working at supposedly unrandom productions and not by progressions or human guesses, therefore most of our bets must be placed at EV+ spots otherwise we'll lose.

*Standard deviation values of our bets are the watchdog of randomness or possible unrandomness.

*If the system provides a strict flat betting scheme, the probability to be ahead by chance is very close to zero.

*Regardless of a bet selection capable to get the advantage of verified smaller sd values than expected, variance remains a strong enemy of every system or replicable approach, especially when adopting a flat betting scheme.

*Remember that anytime we sit at a bac table we must adopt a kind of 'sky's the limit' approach, the only thing we can concede at casinos is their HE that counts nothing itlr.


    IMO on this last one: Variance always swamps HE.


Good thread AsymBacGuy and I look forward to your future discussions on the above. I encourage others to jump in and offer their opinions/ questions as well.


Continued Success,

as:
knowing thay we can afford to let them to reach some values without risking a dime.

The link is a good read on several topics.

re:Post by wannawin and One Half Up

"... - June 24, 2013, 12:47:17 PM
What is your opinion about the One Half Up betting system?

One Half Up

This is a very popular positive progression system. You do not increase your bet until you win two bets in a row, then you keep increasing your bet by one half of your original bet. Here is an example.

You make a $10 bet and win. You are now even so you don't progress yet. You make another $10 bet and win. You are now ahead $10. Your next bet is $15. You are progressing but you still have a profit of $5. If you win the $15 bet your next bet is $20. If you lose you go back to $10. You still have a profit of $15.  ..."

     First I will note that many pos progression regimes posted and discussed on forums almost always indicate(or assume) the wager is placed for consecutive wins streak on one side(meaning PPPPPP  OR BBBBBBB or PBPBPBPB, ...etc.

Im an advocate for pos progressions, however, not necessarily the same event reoccurring in a row. I find for me personally I can put together a longer win streak by grabbing 1-3 wins in a row several times vs all consecutively in a row. I will even carry that pressed-up wager over into another shoe or session. Its my opinion there are only so many "best" spots per shoe for only a few select events.

re: wannawins one half up
     I would be inclined to do a fractional addendum press% as a function of the original bet size not the most recent bet size as wannawins' example. In his example I would be more inclined to make the increase a f(x) of the $10 base unit( e.g.,($10 +5 +3,  ,, etc). Obviously it is easier with a larger starting-size wager (Plus I find it easier to do with a metric that uses a base bet easily divided by sixths (e.g., $60 or one could use $30, though most of my casinos are $50 min). The sixths provides options just in case we can put together a longer streak. Its difficult to put together a longer streak than six so I wouldn't be too overly concerned on what to do after the sixth press.
For example ($60,90,110,...etc) or (1+1/2+1/3 ,...etc) with my main point being to make each successive press a less-than-or-equal press % than the previous press %.

Ultimately what we are saying when choosing to do a pos progression is : "I want to replace a higher % of my lossess at my base unit near 1.0 units with fewer wins at a higher level. Thus I don't need to win as many wagers as I lose , though I will need to put together a streak of wins".
As most of you wil agree this streak-of-wins is undetermined because we don't know how many 1.0 U losses we will accrue PRIOR to getting that streak of wins. If one can put together a streak of 3 and possibly 4 based on their preferred base unit size -to- buyin, they are well on their way to winning more than they lose. If not then a pospro is risky for that individual.

For example: wannawins' question:
"You make a $10 bet and win. You are now even so you don't progress yet. You make another $10 bet and win. You are now ahead $10. Your next bet is $15."
     My preference is to press from the first win instead of second win(We don't know any more about how long our hit streak will be after the second win than we do on the first. IMO we must get the compounding started immediately (if one is choosing to live or die by the press), so we can get a compounding % spinoff.

Im in favor of whatever we choose as our press % to make: Pr1% > Pr2% >Pr3%,...etc with only one stutter step where we collect our monies out of the pressed up wager(though still pressing on that stutter step).

Press-to-your-win


More later,

Welcome to the forum BrendanMelendez
 
     I agree. Nothing more fun than a cash extraction from the casino.


Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9 /good link.

I saw a brief sketch on that story when it broke a few days ago but didn't realize the heist occurred such a long time ago. I feel for the many victims as they will likely see very little of the recovered loot.

*I'm guessing in a couple years we will start seeing movies about all these crypto heists.
Similar to "Oceans 11 series" with George Clooney or "Catch me if you can" with Leonardo Decaprio, ...etc.


Cheers,

https://www.playusa.com/october-2022-casino-las-vegas-news/

Thanks VLS        AWESOME

https://www.usnews.com/news/sports/articles/2022-09-07/wins-and-losses-can-pile-up-with-sped-up-sports-betting

Delaware Sportsbetting hold by month:

December 2021    $12,638,955    ($968,520)    -7.7%    ($992,897)

*I do recall AsymBacGuy made the trek to Delaware,USA back in Dec of 21'. Coincidence, I think not.

Thx . Interesting data.

They too experience Variance. e.g., Note this in two consec months for Delaware with an approx 4-year avg hold of 14.7%:

November 2021    $15,567,067    $4,567,120    29.3%    $3,391,917
December 2021    $12,638,955    ($968,520)    -7.7%    ($992,897)

Also note the difference by state.


Continued Success,

Awesome and thanks for note VLS. Congrats to VLS/alrelax.

*Something to consider:
I was actually considering mentioning to ownership in past but kept forgetting. I would be for us (the forum members) to do an annual trip to Vegas for 3-days of Bac around this time of year to celebrate the forums anniversary (on or near 10/16) and make it an annual event. So older/newer forum members could do a meet/greet and share the tables. Make it annually and near the anniversary date each year so our Bac comrades from around the globe could make travel plans.

Think about it/continued success to all.

Hi all,

alrelax:
"...But, your mind cannot easily adapt to wagering for chops, 1s-2s-3s, cuts after ties and/naturals, etc., etc., if you are into strong clumping, streaks and side bets/bonuses and so on and vice versa. ..."


I agree. Some players will finally adapt, however, its only after the recent string of events is at the final stage. Many come to the table with a "predetermined" plan of attack such as: I shall wager against every xyz or I shall wager with xyz every time I see them,...etc. My belief is that we should have a predetermined wager design (pos or neg progression, flat, increments, presses, regresses...etc), but let the shoe determine our entry/exit point.
    *I've only observed one player that wins consistently with a predetermined wager placement. He wagers mostly for Ties and is extremely patient. He uses a scaled scoring system along with a sllloooowwwww negpro and I've observed him play a whole shoe making only 1-2 bets. He most certainly wins more than loses every year.

ABG:
"...That's why, imo, many times we shouldn't bet at all especially when losing so a possible philosophy to adopt may be:

"If I'm betting here, I'm more likely to lose more than partially recovering the loss"

This is a asymmetrical situation affecting our mindset as the damage of getting one more loss is superior than the benefit of winning one single hand...."

Nicely stated and words of wisdom. Something we should all think about.
I think one of the reasons is that most of us find being in a "losing stage" (meaning we are currently guessing wrong more than right) as uncomfortable/ we are then too eager to wager again and hopefully remove that bad feeling.
I know personally Im more eager to bet or get into next shoe, or go out again the next day, following a losing streak. When compared to my eagerness following an easy shoe, day, or trip as its easier to get lazy, reminisce, and just count my newly won monies,....etc. 

alrelax:
[color=navy]"...I like the 'Titanic' as well!

We simply label those shoes, 'The shoe from hell'...."
[/color]
    re: Titanic shoes vs jackpot shoes. I use to think that when presented with extreme shoes the table was split near 50-50. Meaning approx half the players won big and half lost big. What I often see instead is at a table of say six players approx 4-5 will lose big and 1 will win big. However, in a jackpot shoe only 1-2 will win big and 4-5 lose. Im not sure why but players seem to wager more aggressively when losing vs winning. Just my observation and I may be wrong in this assertion.


Continued Success,