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Messages - KungFuBac

#46
KungFuBac / Horrible session across 4+ shoes
September 28, 2024, 04:52:10 PM
I had a day this week where I only played one looonnnnggg session across 4+shoes(Approx 6hrs).

Typically I call it a session when all of my wagers have been decisioned(I always do a pos progression). Generally all wagers are decisioned in the same or very next shoe and its called a  session(Net - or +). Though, I may sometimes carry a pressed up wager into the next shoe or session or day. I never kill a pressed up wager as it continues until it dies.

Generally I play 7-9 hours per day. However, on this day I was exhausted after about 6hours. I was talking with a bac mentor that day re: these type of sessions and how they sometimes seem to occur without predictability or a precursor. I guess most of us have experienced such sessions.

Ok, on with the horrible shoe(s) story.

This was one of those sessions I simply could not get in sync with the results(several shoes and several different biases). It did not matter as I zigged when it zagged.

W33 L41 and that was after a late hit-rate surge in the last shoe.

At one point my record was W24 L37. I was down approx (-2600) at this stage. I generally do a pos progression/optimally go after >=four presses(5 hits 4 compounds). Seldom do I go for consecutive-event wins IAR(In a row), such as ppppp or bbbbb or pbpbp,..etc. I prefer to grab a win or two from the meat of patterns, set it aside/reenter into another meat-part of a pattern,...etc. In these shoe(s) I couldnt seem to find 3iar or I would lose all of my highest wagers so the stage (@ w24 L37) was even worse than indicated.

Late in this last shoe I knew it was a sign for me to depart the casino:

     P had recently been on a significiant streak such as pp b ppp b pppp b pppp and had won 13/16 or so outcomes in this recent bias. I had grabbed several Ws from the P bias. After that last (pppp) I had noted that nothing in the whole entire shoe had gone past 4iar(No opps, P, or B, or any other pattern). So my intention was to go with what had happened thus far and wager $775 for B after the PPPP. However, I erroneously put my wager on P for $755 and $20 on the Fortune7. Of course I immediately realized (too late as cards were coming out). I immediately thought "oh sheet". Lucky for me P won again with a 3c7. I was @ net+$850 at that stage (only the second time I was ahead for the whole day).

It was about 5pm and though I had planned on playing until approx 8pm. I had to simply acknowledge it wasn't a favorable day(especially after the last error). Some days we win when our bet selection doesn't warrant it. Ill gladly take it.


Continued Success,


#47
Im beginning to think some of his claims are not entirely accurate.
I think his greatest skillset is in marketing.


https://www.tiktok.com/@unrealgambling/video/7302468896060230955
#48
Creativity Adventures / Re: Experimenting 3 states Bias
September 28, 2024, 04:02:57 PM
Thx albertojonas for the intel/thx to others comments as well.

I like the idea of watching three streams of info simultaneously. I think most of us will agree a shoe is always presenting at least one(>=1) bias.



Continued Success To All,
#49
Alrelax's Blog / Re: The Other Night At The Bac Table
September 23, 2024, 01:55:25 AM
Alrelax above:
Thx that was a good read.

"...Of course, there is always that, 'What I could do' and that, 'I can win lots more', but I pay attention more to my feeling now as well as what is going on around me, these days more so than the past.  I didn't really do any money management or apply my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3 system to the win money--I guess I wasn't set to play 3 or 4 shoes with my mind frame. 

Sure I wanted to stay, but too many times the easy wins like we had come early and then you get smacked by the casino with that proverbial,'whatever you do you can't get a winning hand' type of play.  The people started to come in the casino, those with the, "I will wager against you and win", style of play and that is aggravating more than anything to me.  ..."



I agree about importance of MM.
Much of ones success at the tables reduces down to how one manages Losing(We can't go on tilt and can't chase losses), and having a predetermined MM system for the Winning sessions that matches ones objectives.


Continued Success,
#50
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
September 23, 2024, 01:35:22 AM
Hi albertojonas

Good discussions above.

I "think" what Asym is saying:

We should look for streaks to cluster (lets say 3+ same-side streaks) streaks to group more closely together vs farther apart.

Meaning let say we see a streak of XXXX in lets say the 3rd column near the beginning of shoe. We should expect another such streak in a closer column (say column 4,5  or 6 or whatever)  vs expecting the next long streak to be way over to the right of tote board(lets say in column 14, or 15, or 16 or whatever), and referred to as isolated.

Maybe the next time Asym visits he can provide a P and B example to further clarify(for me too).


Continued Success To All,
#51
I saw the following story re: Wynn

"wynn-using-special-stock-offering-to-recover-from-131m-forfeiture"

"The company on Tuesday announced issuing $800 million in senior notes at 6.25 percent due in 2033."


    I can't help but think there is a better ROI(& safer) investment out there vs their offering of 6.25% for 9 years.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wynn-using-special-stock-offering-to-recover-from-131m-forfeiture/ar-AA1qsmIp
#52
that's interesting re:Wynn and issues with depositing Front money.

*I've only had an issue with Front money one time in my life.
It was a small group of indian casinos within the same tribe. I play regularly at three and sometimes five of their casinos in any 1--2 week period. I had spoken with the person in charge (in person) and (by phone) at their main casino explaining my objective.

So a couple days later I had sent 25K to the main(&largest) of their casinos via eCheck. So approx a week later I was at one of the satellite casinos in the same region and part of the state. I asked for a marker (of 4K in chips)at the cage/they didn't show I had anything on deposit. After I showed them my receipt they informed me I could only withdraw from the main cas where I had sent the Front money.
However, they said I could do an ACH transaction from my bank for 5K but it would cost $57 per 5K. Of course, I informed them (in a mostly tactful manner) that wasn't going to happen. Besides being nonsensical (To pay $57 per 5K), I banked at a small Federal Credit Union that didn't do ACH transactions on their network and I would have only been able to send an eCheck(2-3 days).

Anyway, the bottom line is they allowed me to do a withdraw from my debit card and then credited the fee back to my players card(as free play)  and gave me a $25 food voucher. They apologized for the hassle and for wasting about 45 minutes of my life.

I wasn't irritated about their policies (Their house their rules). However, I was irritated by the fact I had originally explained very clearly to them exactly what I wanted to accomplish and even told them which Bank I would be sending from, which casinos I would be playing, and the exact amount I would be withdrawing, ...etc.


Continued Success,

#53
Hopefully Wynn Casinos are not forced to sell a couple vehicles from their 11-car Rolls Royce fleet(Shown in the following 3minute link).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdDniZCIm5Q&t=8s
#54
I liked the posts from the great Gizmo. Does anybody know what happened to him?? 
I never played with him but play with an elder Bac fellow that played roulette with him et als in Gizmos' circle of roulette aficionados.


This is one of Gizmos statements from the above or other thread:

Gizmotron: "... missing every one and still just grinding away with a few ups and downs. Everything adds up. You must take the gravy once in a while in order to be able to take the chances in the first place. Playing against randomness is all about winning in the aggregate.  ..."


Continued Success,
#55
Creativity Adventures / Re: Experimenting 3 states Bias
September 14, 2024, 05:24:29 PM
Thanks to the OP(albertojonas) for the post and others opinions too. This is an interesting hypothesis. I will have to think on it and will respond more later.




Continued Success To All,
#56
The following is a quote from the article in the link at the bottom.

"...the scheme involved Benward somehow convincing casino crews that he placed bets on winning numbers after the numbers had already come in.

One thing that interests me is the borderline between cheaters and advantage players. One breaks the rules, the other looks for any possible edge without going over the line into straight cheating.

Benward was a cheater. He did a verbal equivalent of past posting. ..."



     I've "very very seldom" observed a Bac player cheating. The few times I've witnessed this is by the cheater moving their official bet back toward them and into the winning spot. Typically, as the dealer started paying out to the opposite end of the table. 



https://www.techopedia.com/gambling/blog/winners-losers-las-vegas-black-book
#57
KungFuBac / Re: 5Day4NightBacTrek
September 08, 2024, 05:10:00 AM
In my OP above: "...Highlights: Longest of the common streaks was a Banker 9iar(ended shoe). 10iar P streak. 8iar 2x2(BBPP), 8 iar opps(BPB,...etc). 9iar 1x2(BppB..etc)...."


To clarify--I didn't wager the above streaks beginning to end. I was just stating these were the longest of the commonly identifiable streaks that I witnessed during that trip.
My typical MO for these types of streaks (or any streak) is to catch maybe 2-4 in the middle "or meat" of the run and set that pressed-up wager aside for later. Sometimes I may only catch 1-2 hits in the middle of something. I then finish the current streak at my base unit size.


Continued Success,
#58
that's interesting. It seems like there may be a little more to this story.
#59
The USA Today poll was completed Aug 26,2024 and "shocker" CET wins it again. The link below at very bottom shows the results according to this USA Today poll. The ranking is shown as the top ten in the order of 10th--1st.

I didn't look at details for the poll. However, I wonder if the votes were weighted as a function of which casinos have the most patrons. It is my opinion the larger casinos should be expected to receive the most votes. Thus we would expect the CET to have an advantage over some of the smaller groups. Plus CET bombarded members w emails everyday reminding them to vote in this poll.

I don't have anything against CET as I don't have any in my main market/have seldom played at one of their casinos in recent years. I do know they have watered down the requirements for 7-star (And Diamond too) with all of their tier-multiple bonus weekends(5x or 10x ,...etc). Often the 7-star line at the check-in counter is longer then the DiamondLine.
One can easily obtain 25,000 (Diamond level) in a single weekend trip. Especially if one plays slots or other high-tier games. A little more difficult (but still doable) if one only plays table games such as Bac, BJ, or Poker-Type games. 

*As a side note and a complement to CET re: Sports Betting.
    I just recently returned from a trip and I usually do some sports betting when on a multi-day trip if I have access to several Sports books.
I was comparing lines each day between Fanduel, Draftkings, CET, ESPNBet. I had a $100 Freeplay so I spoke with a couple gamers I play with that have some sportsbetting expertise.

I would take their selections and run through an AI platform, and three other sportsbetting apps and make an assessment for which wager each day had the best value.

I would compare lines at the aforementioned books and use the book with the best line.
Anyway, I had taken the $100FP and parlayed 3x on three different sports(baseball, tennis, and basketball) over about 5 days.
I then took my first proceeds (A $120 profit) and parlayed the residual wager again on a tennis match. I know very little about tennis and was simply following the recommendations of my two experts above.
My selection forfeited his match with an "alleged" injury late in the third game. I thought I had lost and started to toss the ticket. I then decided to do a little research as I always thought that in any sporting event that as soon as the match started(regardless if boxing, tennis,golf,...etc) and if selection forfeited one simply lost their bet(win for the sportsbook).

After further research I learned that many sportsbooks count the wager on tennis as valid once the event starts. However, CET counts as a "push" in tennis regardless if one side quits aftrer one second or near the end. Kudos to CET. In my case I didn't lose this wager. During the week long trip this was the only wagering event where CET offered the most favorable line vs the books above.
The next day I wagered the parlayed bet again on a baseball game and lost. So my $100FP only returned $120.

Anyway, I was glad to learn this about CET on Tennis wagering.


https://10best.usatoday.com/awards/travel/best-players-club-2024/
#60
KungFuBac / 5Day4NightBacTrek
September 03, 2024, 04:54:38 PM
Good morning to all.
I just returned from an overnight multi-day trip during the Labor-Day holiday weekend.
Brief highlights/lowlights below.

My town typically has a lot of festivities during this holiday. So to side step an extra 100,000 folks drinking/partying in my town I decided to take a 2.5 hour trek to a casino market that I typically only play during the week(daytime). Plus my wife was off work /wanted to travel somewhere.

I live in a casino market with casinos 5mins away and over 100 within a 3hour radius so rarely travel overnight with most play M-F, with occasional sat or sun early afternoon quick sessions.

Even when I play overnight in this market I general don't stay in any of their casino hotels. Mainly because I don't want to be obligated to any one cas just because they gave me free room/food. I typically just rent a hotel equi distance to all four (15mins or so to any of them). So that I can play as long or little at whichever I prefer/not be restricted. Plus I like to get out of the casino and give my brain a little rest from all the aural stimulation. Plus I meet some of the local players and generally play more at the casino we agree upon by consensus.

I also like the option should I want to eat a certain type of food. IMO most casino food is unhealthy (fast food, buffets,...etc), and during the week/ typical day-only trips I pack my ususal(Turkey sticks, cheese sticks,veggies, nuts, H2o). Often just snacking as I drive to different casinos. Time is money.   

I use an outside host for most all overnight casino trips. Same for this trip/ had him go ahead and book a comped room for the first night at the largest of the four casinos(Pottawatomie tribe-OKC,OK). Plus I have several Bac comrades that play here so joined them for several sessions.
Plus they have a really nice Brazil Steak House that my wife likes(& my host not only added the comped steak house but also added a $249 two hour spa pkg for my wife). The steak house is great food but I typically don't eat there as its simply too much food. Plus when playing during the day I prefer to not take time off from gaming to set in a restaurant for an hour,..etc.


The four casinos I play Bac in this market are small indian casinos with 1k and 2k Tmax(Most 1k) and though some may have three Bac tables typically only have one or two open in the morning(& some days never open all of them or only at night).

I played approximately six to seven shoes per day(some only partial)

Highlights: Longest of the common streaks was a Banker 9iar(ended shoe). 10iar P streak. 8iar 2x2(BBPP), 8 iar opps(BPB,...etc). 9iar 1x2(BppB..etc).

A few of our forum members that I play with on a regular basis know that I typically bet an aggressive pos progression and more likely to parlay+ and full press the initial hits into any identifiable streak pattern. Then set it aside , and reenter into a different streak later on.

However I treated the Banker 9iar above a little different once I was ahead greater than my most recent highest wager. It was near the end of the shoe and somewhere near the 4th or 5th B I was at table max as I think I entered on the 2nd B. So I went above Tmax (1800) as I capped the guy next to me for that extra 800 onto his 200. Then everyone (except two of us) colored up or scattered to another table.

I couldnt believe they would all leave a streak. Maybe they departed because it was near the end of the shoe.??? They were afraid of winning too much????? Who knows.

So I then had to regress back to the Tmax of 1k as they don't allow one to wager in a vacant  (One must cap another players bet on the same spot /have that player OK it). After regressing back to 1K I then started doing a -1% exponential regression til the shoe ended after the 9th B. I still did well but immediately was thinking: "I wish I was at Bellagios in Vegas or Beau Rivage in Biloxi,MS.

Oh well still a decent ROI from the shoe. Just last week had another good run and had to regress back instead of compounding upward at a similar low Tmax Cas. One never knows as I have also been on runs where the low Tmax actually kept me from pressing higher and locked in a nice ROI. This is more often the case(at least for me) as that hunt for  "one extra" hit can sometimes be costly.

The other player that stayed until the end was a 25ish Asian lady that I have played with in the Midwest on many occasions/at various other casinos. She typically wagers something like 100-200-100. However, I noted she went 100-200-400-400-600-1K to the end. She told me later she had won about 2k on earlier shoe.
She looks about 15yo and it was funny on the 9iar B run. She would put her wager on B and then ask me in her ESL accent: "Do you think B again"? I would say yes. She had a strong Asian accent and her English was sometimes not clear.
     She said afterwards: You have the holy grail(Or maybe she said you are the holy grail), as Im
     not 100% sure after translating,  :) . Ok I made up the last sentence.

Lowlights: Busted one 4K buyin on the trip. It was several days old and had produced some good profits. I seldom ever lose a whole buyin in any one shoe as I have some cut offs that after a certain number of failed guesses I either bet into a different pattern or just stop and assess. Meaning I don't chase losses on one pattern Im guessing wrong. So this busted buyin was across several shoes as I would almost get buyin built back to even and draw down again,...etc. My hit rate was above-average on the shoe that I busted on. However, I seemed to fail on getting that 3rd press to go four or the four iar press would fail on the 5th attempt.


I will edit and maybe add other thoughts later today or on weekend. Im tired after 5-day trip plus my wife gave me a long list of "stuff u need to do" today.




Continued Success To All,