Thanks alrelax, ADulay, Asymbacguy , et al for the pos wishes.

asymbacguy:
"If we have found an advantage, best way we'll exploit it is by flat betting as we significantly reduce the variance."

     My thinking is that if one has an advantage (verified not just the V swaying) greater than the house edge we want as much money as possible on said advantage as often as possible(as many compounds as possible).

When you say "flat betting" to reduce the Variance I would agree.

 However, re: flat betting with a verified advantage I would be more in agreement if your term flat betting means increasing as a function of our buyin or bankroll. Meaning as the buyin/bankroll increased so does the "flat bet" increase.

If your term "flat betting" means always keeping the bet size the same regardless of buyin increasing  or decreasing, then I would be in less agreement.

For example:
Lets say if one starts with a $2000 buyin and $50 wager size (.025) and one wins +400. So now buyin is 2400. I would prefer the wager size to also increase to $60(.025) vs remaining at the original flat bet size of $50. Still a flat bet though now a function of buyin.

The $60 is still a flat bet(meaning it doesn't change within the shoe), yet it has upward potential "or growth" and compounding into our buyin/bankroll, (Especially if one has a verified advantage greater than house edge). Most players do in my opinion although most players may not perceive it(their advantage) when Variance is swaying (-) against their bet selection. Thus they go on tilt or abandon their methodology when it was really just a little blip.

To my thinking we want growth (or compounding) of our advantage vibrating through our bet, through our buyin, and through our bankroll. This compounding can be applied "bet-to-bet" or "bet-to-buyin" (as mentioned above), as it is still growing. Which is a good thing.


Continued success,

WELCOME

Welcome to KungFuBacs' section.
A little personal gaming history, theories, and beliefs to follow.

I've played Baccarat since the early 2000s (2003 or so) and this is my only game. I've played full time for approximately four years. I play mostly in USA and have well over 100 casinos within an approximate 10Min to 3hour drive near a four-state junction in the Midwest.  Most of my casinos are Indian casinos. Many only have one (or two) Bac tables and some have zero.  I strive to play 1800 hands per week (Play not necessarily wager). I mostly play during the day and weekdays and by design avoid late Friday nights and Saturday night.

Primary Wagering Mode: Positive Progression with an emphasis on compounding with precise efficiency to >= my goal.

Below are a few topics that came to mind from my personal list of gambling theories, opinions, proverbs related to gambling...etc (not in any particular order), that I find worthy of further discussion.

I find all of these topics important for one trying to develop an overall gameplan for utilization on a daily basis. I'm still striving to improve my gameplan, so addendum ideas/ strategies are welcomed.

•   Focus on managing Variance including and not limited to: Bet selection, Bet size to buyin to bankroll ratios. For the most part a successful casino investor(player) its all about Money management, patience, and discipline, AND LIMITING LOSING STREAKS/SESSIONS. They happen to all.

•   Most importantly design the above gameplan to match ones personal and specific monetary objective. This trumps everything.

•   Be unafraid to win

•   Accept losing shoes and sessions. They are inevitable. Don't dwell on them and don't strive to "make up" or catch up in the next shoe(s) or session(s). We may have that opportunity in the next shoe or session. However, we can't always bulldoze our desires into that next shoe. Though one must always be in anticipatory mode for when that makeup shoe or session shows(and it will).

•   Successful gambling must be learned by doing. Most of us probably attended post-high school education for 2-12 years to learn theory and skill in our occupation. Yet I think most of us travelled our most accelerated learning curve in the first couple years of applying (doing) that occupation. Gambling is no different in my opinion.



•   If one wants to become an expert at something a most efficient path is to seek someone that has already developed that area of expertise through experience. It does not matter if that field of study is gambler, doctor, mechanic, engineer, or electrician. Most highly skilled and successful professionals are glad to assist a less-experienced comrade in their same field. That willingness to help is also a sign one is highly skilled and a professional. All things being equal seek knowledge from that old white-haired 75yo vs that 25yo.
Though we should always believe we can learn something from everybody. Sometimes that lesson may be what not to do.

•   Reading and studying Bac, running 000s, and 000000s of sims are all helpful and that's all good and fine. However, playing with real money on that real shoe that's in front of you right now is the best teacher of all.

•   Winning ITLR (in the long run) is all about limiting our losses on the really bad shoes.  MM, patience, and discipline ITSR are important allies.

•   Never feel a need to continuously chase a losing spot. Never completely depart a winning spot.

•   Variance is our nemesis. Variance can also be our best friend and crucial to our winning.

•   One should utilize ones whole buyin if we are willing to give the casino a chance at our whole buyin. IOW its disadvantageous to only use say 30-40% of ones buyin if ones stop loss is 100% of said buyin.

•   Im an advocate for managing our casino bankroll and buyin in a similar manner to managing a small business, one's stock and investments portfolio,...etc.

•   I view my buyin as Im playing my buyin against my buyin. In other words, I'm not playing my buyin against the casinos bankroll. Im trying to win >= my buyin  prior  to losing my buyin.

•   The casino investor(player) has many advantages over the casino. For the most part the casino is required to "match" our move. We get to choose when/where to place our wager along with size. Most importantly we get to make choices  after  an event or decision has occurred.

From the gamblers rules of etiquette:

Don't complain to others about losing sessions. 90% don't care and the remaining 10% are halfway glad you lost.


Continued Success To All,

Hi 8OR9

Good reads/thx for posts.
I read a similar article on the Ftx/Sam bankman-fried fellow. I posted the link below as it appears on breitbartnews.com.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/11/11/breitbart-business-digest-Sam-bankman-fried-hoped-ftx-was-bear-stearns-but-it-was-lehman-brothers-instead/



The most important part in above link) and what I found interesting about the comparison with bear stearns/ lehman borthers financial debacle is WHY the government bailed out one entity(banks) but didn't bail out the others(FTX et al cryptos). IMO the government doesnot want crypto to compete with the USD (or not at this stage).

Its also my opinion some of these crypto exchanges/ owners of crypto exchanges/ individuals owning(&leveraging) large amounts of cryptos are now going to implement huge "preplanned" bankruptcies, and wipeout ALL of their debt under the guise(well, i was ripped off by those damn cryptos").

Their appears to be several hollywood and professional athletes also in the middle of several crypto defaults. Im thinking we will see more in next few months.

*The kicker is on or near the very same day this story started breaking on FTX/Sam bankman fried, I saw these type of headlines below optimistically touting cryptos. I wonder at times if the media and individual reporters ever listen to themselves.

Is crypto the way to fight inflation(2022)

Bitcoin vs Gold: Are cryptos the new gold





Continued Success To All/ To All A Good Week

Hi AsymBacGuy


"A large percentage of casinos' profits come from bad players attitude loving to bet huge as losers and being more prudent when winning."


I agree 100%. This is a phenomenon that I perceive is just  a part of the human psyche.  IMO it has much to do with how we are bombarded with "fear" from an early age and throughout life.
Plus, coupled with our emotions tied to money, and this can allow fear to really affect our decisions.

I see fear being utilized everyday in our lives.

e.g., Roadside assistance insurance for your roadside assistance plan,..etc.

e.g., Insurance for the possibility that our new electronic device may not last x # of years.
IMO that's what the manufacturers 2-year warranty is for. Unless its an expensive item we shouldnt have much fear about all the whatifs.

     I recently bought an extension for a lightbulb socket(basically an extension that screws into the light bulb recepticle and drops down 3"). The cost was $6.95. I immediately started receiving offers that for just $2.95 (43% of the actual cost of the gadget), I could insure that extension for two years (of course this 2.95 policy would only start after the manufacturers 2-year warranty had ended).  FEAR.
I declined.lol. I have NO FEAR, just like at the Bac table,lol..
If my $7 gadget malfunctions in 23mo Ill just toss it and go spend another $7.

Our whole society tries to "FEAR" us into a life of fear.

Same as at the Bac table. Its my opinion we fear losing too much in comparison with our emotions for accepting a big Win.

Cheers, kfb

Hi Asym/ thx for your reply to my Qs.

To clarify this following statement from your post above-- October 31, 2022, 11:21:59 PM:

"...Yet if a 'moderate' deviation is a good trigger to risk our money at, we must know that sometimes 'moderate' could shift into 'strong' instead of going toward the searched RTM effect..."

Are you saying this moderate deviation may instead of continuing with RTM may actually turn the other direction and become even stronger (meaning diverge away from TM) ?


Thx in advance,

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2022/oct/17/gambler-wins-497000-at-las-vegas-strip-casino/

Hi all,

Asymbac in your Setting Up A System post #711 above you say:

"...
In order to reduce the variance's impact acute players tend to utilize three ploys:

a) waiting that a moderate-strong unwanted deviation will come out then betting huge;

b) progressively betting by a multilayered multistep scheme just on positive spots;

c) progressively betting by a multilayered multistep scheme after negative spots of any lenght came out (so a light negative spot constitutes the trigger).

Once we've verified our possible edge, the decision to take one of the three different approach is unimportant, maybe and providing a proper bankroll a mix of the three is best.
..."


a) waiting that a moderate-strong unwanted deviation will come out then betting huge;
    Can you give a specific example of this (and how you would typically wager that spot. e.g., One bet , 2-step neg pro,...etc, or do you do a longer neg pro (say 5-step neg pro),...etc. or None of the above?  other?



Q: Are you personally more likely to wager a slow neg pro in perceived EV+ spot or if you hit that first wager are u then more likely to do a pospro (i.e., Pressing that first hit) in the same or other EV+ spot(s) later in that shoe or following shoe(s)??


Thx in advance,

Hi as / thx for all your writings(especially this one).
There are many true statements and just a few of my favorites are posted below.

I like that your essays include real-time table experiences along with statistics, not ignoring either, and blending them appropriately. IMO there is room for both in a professional Bac players regime(or there better be room for both) if one wants to survive at the tables.

I will comment more this weekend as your truisms deserve a more detailed reply.

Not in any particular order of importance:

*It's intuitive to think that if no system works any other approach wouldn't. Providing sequences are random regardless of the method utilized.
In a nutshell, successful players of both categories rely upon 'non randomness' of the outcomes.

*A system player is more adapted to the natural negative variance than any other player, mainly as he/she thinks the game as a long term succession not splitted into sessions, days or other very short term evaluations.

*If any shoe dealt would produce random successions the probability to win is 0.
Humans can't read randomness by any means, actually casinos hope their shoes to be randomly offered and somewhat hoping some shoes will produce strong deviations to be caught by players. So giving the perfect 'illusion' that the game could be beaten.

*HE can only be beaten by a bet selection working at supposedly unrandom productions and not by progressions or human guesses, therefore most of our bets must be placed at EV+ spots otherwise we'll lose.

*Standard deviation values of our bets are the watchdog of randomness or possible unrandomness.

*If the system provides a strict flat betting scheme, the probability to be ahead by chance is very close to zero.

*Regardless of a bet selection capable to get the advantage of verified smaller sd values than expected, variance remains a strong enemy of every system or replicable approach, especially when adopting a flat betting scheme.

*Remember that anytime we sit at a bac table we must adopt a kind of 'sky's the limit' approach, the only thing we can concede at casinos is their HE that counts nothing itlr.


    IMO on this last one: Variance always swamps HE.


Good thread AsymBacGuy and I look forward to your future discussions on the above. I encourage others to jump in and offer their opinions/ questions as well.


Continued Success,

as:
knowing thay we can afford to let them to reach some values without risking a dime.

The link is a good read on several topics.

re:Post by wannawin and One Half Up

"... - June 24, 2013, 12:47:17 PM
What is your opinion about the One Half Up betting system?

One Half Up

This is a very popular positive progression system. You do not increase your bet until you win two bets in a row, then you keep increasing your bet by one half of your original bet. Here is an example.

You make a $10 bet and win. You are now even so you don't progress yet. You make another $10 bet and win. You are now ahead $10. Your next bet is $15. You are progressing but you still have a profit of $5. If you win the $15 bet your next bet is $20. If you lose you go back to $10. You still have a profit of $15.  ..."

     First I will note that many pos progression regimes posted and discussed on forums almost always indicate(or assume) the wager is placed for consecutive wins streak on one side(meaning PPPPPP  OR BBBBBBB or PBPBPBPB, ...etc.

Im an advocate for pos progressions, however, not necessarily the same event reoccurring in a row. I find for me personally I can put together a longer win streak by grabbing 1-3 wins in a row several times vs all consecutively in a row. I will even carry that pressed-up wager over into another shoe or session. Its my opinion there are only so many "best" spots per shoe for only a few select events.

re: wannawins one half up
     I would be inclined to do a fractional addendum press% as a function of the original bet size not the most recent bet size as wannawins' example. In his example I would be more inclined to make the increase a f(x) of the $10 base unit( e.g.,($10 +5 +3,  ,, etc). Obviously it is easier with a larger starting-size wager (Plus I find it easier to do with a metric that uses a base bet easily divided by sixths (e.g., $60 or one could use $30, though most of my casinos are $50 min). The sixths provides options just in case we can put together a longer streak. Its difficult to put together a longer streak than six so I wouldn't be too overly concerned on what to do after the sixth press.
For example ($60,90,110,...etc) or (1+1/2+1/3 ,...etc) with my main point being to make each successive press a less-than-or-equal press % than the previous press %.

Ultimately what we are saying when choosing to do a pos progression is : "I want to replace a higher % of my lossess at my base unit near 1.0 units with fewer wins at a higher level. Thus I don't need to win as many wagers as I lose , though I will need to put together a streak of wins".
As most of you wil agree this streak-of-wins is undetermined because we don't know how many 1.0 U losses we will accrue PRIOR to getting that streak of wins. If one can put together a streak of 3 and possibly 4 based on their preferred base unit size -to- buyin, they are well on their way to winning more than they lose. If not then a pospro is risky for that individual.

For example: wannawins' question:
"You make a $10 bet and win. You are now even so you don't progress yet. You make another $10 bet and win. You are now ahead $10. Your next bet is $15."
     My preference is to press from the first win instead of second win(We don't know any more about how long our hit streak will be after the second win than we do on the first. IMO we must get the compounding started immediately (if one is choosing to live or die by the press), so we can get a compounding % spinoff.

Im in favor of whatever we choose as our press % to make: Pr1% > Pr2% >Pr3%,...etc with only one stutter step where we collect our monies out of the pressed up wager(though still pressing on that stutter step).

Press-to-your-win


More later,

Welcome to the forum BrendanMelendez
 
     I agree. Nothing more fun than a cash extraction from the casino.


Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9 /good link.

I saw a brief sketch on that story when it broke a few days ago but didn't realize the heist occurred such a long time ago. I feel for the many victims as they will likely see very little of the recovered loot.

*I'm guessing in a couple years we will start seeing movies about all these crypto heists.
Similar to "Oceans 11 series" with George Clooney or "Catch me if you can" with Leonardo Decaprio, ...etc.


Cheers,

https://www.playusa.com/october-2022-casino-las-vegas-news/

Thanks VLS        AWESOME

https://www.usnews.com/news/sports/articles/2022-09-07/wins-and-losses-can-pile-up-with-sped-up-sports-betting