Hi Albalaha
Alb:
That is why -1.5 SD or worse could work as a valid and helpful trigger my way.
Agreed. Potentially it could help as a trigger. Though I think u will agree it would also depend on where in the shoe the deficit(-1.5sd) was triggered. For example, lets say at hand 20 vs hand 60. The deficit side may indeed start accelerating in its attempt to catch up. However, regardless of how fast it is closing the gap, may simply run out of time(too little remaining distance to make up the deficit completely),...etc, in that same shoe.
Alrelax also speaks of this often in his writings as it is his opinion re: side deficit. (re: sides: often desire to do a correction "snap back" once they reach a deficit of 10ish or the seldom 20ish, total score deficit). I agree and do indeed watch for this when I see a side creep ahead by a >=8 count (especially if it wasn't due to single long runs of say 6-8 streak). Plus, as mentioned above it could have different implications if it occurred in first 10-15 decisions vs at say hand 60-70.
I think these larger SD side deficits often sneak up on players. I know I've been guilty of suddenly looking back at my card and surprised to realize one side just increased its lead to 12(though it occurred gradually with 4-2,3-1,..etc type surges).
Alb:
Getting only 16 hits in 80 trials is over -5.2 SD and as rare as next to impossible.
Indeed, and one of the reasons I like a pospro--it automatically omits(i.e., limits wager# or $) the extended long streaks of incorrect bet placement.
Alb:
Any other trigger one might suggest?
I like your triggers above as a f(x) of Variance/think they are reasonable for the profile of Bac. However, I also think one should predetermine how long we want to chase. IOW , do we enter the battle til victory or death--OR-- do we consider retreat as an option at some future stage.
Continued Success,
Alb:
That is why -1.5 SD or worse could work as a valid and helpful trigger my way.
Agreed. Potentially it could help as a trigger. Though I think u will agree it would also depend on where in the shoe the deficit(-1.5sd) was triggered. For example, lets say at hand 20 vs hand 60. The deficit side may indeed start accelerating in its attempt to catch up. However, regardless of how fast it is closing the gap, may simply run out of time(too little remaining distance to make up the deficit completely),...etc, in that same shoe.
Alrelax also speaks of this often in his writings as it is his opinion re: side deficit. (re: sides: often desire to do a correction "snap back" once they reach a deficit of 10ish or the seldom 20ish, total score deficit). I agree and do indeed watch for this when I see a side creep ahead by a >=8 count (especially if it wasn't due to single long runs of say 6-8 streak). Plus, as mentioned above it could have different implications if it occurred in first 10-15 decisions vs at say hand 60-70.
I think these larger SD side deficits often sneak up on players. I know I've been guilty of suddenly looking back at my card and surprised to realize one side just increased its lead to 12(though it occurred gradually with 4-2,3-1,..etc type surges).
Alb:
Getting only 16 hits in 80 trials is over -5.2 SD and as rare as next to impossible.
Indeed, and one of the reasons I like a pospro--it automatically omits(i.e., limits wager# or $) the extended long streaks of incorrect bet placement.
Alb:
Any other trigger one might suggest?
I like your triggers above as a f(x) of Variance/think they are reasonable for the profile of Bac. However, I also think one should predetermine how long we want to chase. IOW , do we enter the battle til victory or death--OR-- do we consider retreat as an option at some future stage.
Continued Success,