Thanks AsymBacGuy . I appreciate your reply to my Q above.

"... yet we should remember that bac results are coming out from a finite asymmetrical card distribution acting at an already asymmetrical proposition dictated from the rules..."
     Perfectly stated and its the word finite that we should always remember when at the Bac tables.

     That in my opinion is one of the main differences between Bac and many comparable games  that instead utilize dice vs cards(primarily games such as craps). Yet gaming authors and casino employees incessantly blather on "its just a fitty-fitty coin flip game", suggesting that it doesn't matter how we wager/ "no advantage to be found here".

One of several reasons there is a difference "when comparing games" : (i.e., In Bac obviously the marbles are not placed back into the jar after each drawing of balls(i mean cards).  However, if we only look at the outcomes profile of results when comparing Bac to Craps--they will indeed look similar and will indeed converge toward expectation. Yet IMO two completely different games.  Again, just my personal thoughts.


Continued Success ,

Thx/Good essay AsymBacGuy

"...Math edge cannot do anything about a 'biased' production even though each bet is somewhat taxed.  ..."

     Well said/ IMO this "biased production" is also displayed in most even-chance wager games(e.g., Roul, craps line et al games). Though I do agree Bac is optimum and offers the best opportunities for exploitation(not just because of low H.E.)



"... Casinos want us to 'guess' every hand dealt but the asymmetrical feature takes its full power only after a classification made by a diluted pace (sections)..."

     Q: Do you mean after the event has "underperformed" in a prior section of that shoe?? Can you talk a little more about this diluted pace(sections)? Thank you.


Continued Success,

Thanks XXVV.
Good info/thx for sharing.
I've been following /researching Meta1 as well as most of the ticker symbols on your list.


Continued Success and looking forward to your next update. kfb

alrelax in reply#2 above:

"...THE. DRAWDOWN
There is most definitely a drawdown the highest majority of times in your buy in at the table prior to any real profit coming your way.  You have to figure in and calculate the loss and the impact to your buy in as you wager to survive the drawdown harm...."

     Especially if one wagers a PosProgression(Im certainly in this category). That is unless one is insync with a pos streak in their first couple attempts. Otherwise our net win size from a latter streak will obviously  be a function of how many misses (buyin depletion) we had to endure prior to that clump of wins. I like to think of it as how many steps (i.e., wagers, bullets, steps, distance) must I expect to travel or expend between winning clumps.

     IMO this topic (Drawdown) is ultra important as it gets into bet sizing-to buyin-to bankroll---to our win goal size. The better our hit rate the fewer bullets we need(IOW our betsize can be a larger ratio to our buyin & vice versa). This is also a function of "what is our win goal" and that too is a function of our buyin size . 

IMO when many of us first started playing Bac we often over estimated our hit rate and that means we likely under estimated our required number of bullets /size of bankroll required. Coupled with the fact we also overestimated the size of our win goal. At least I know I did.

Re: Drawdown--I also think the emotional part of sitting at a table having drawndown significantly will affect a player and their future decisions. I see a common issue on an almost daily basis. Where a pos pro player will wager a pospro and after the expected draw down ("because of the pospro"), will then be too emotionally distraught when the perfect streak comes along and then not be able to pull-the-trigger and really capitalize on said streak. When they could have recovered >=200%+ of the most recent drawdown. Instead they will limp toward the finish line /barely make it back to even or +10-20% net win.

SOLUTION: If one is willing to lose their buyin then one also needs to be willing to accept a huge win when it does indeed present itself(And it will). We just don't know when.


Continued Success To All,

Hi ADulay--Thx for reply and great info/intel.

I had a trip booked two years ago about a month before covid hit(for the following october)  /the agency I was going through cancelled a week after I scheduled. I had looked into various routes(from midwest ,USA) and going through Philippines et al locations and finally decided to just go straight into Hong Kong/ do the ferry over to Macao(I "think" i was told it would be $75 per trip but may be mistaken as that was 18-20 months ago).

Im hoping to rechedule in 2022 and had previously planned on booking through Sands group (simply because I know a host that had worked in that market). I have a friend from college that lives in Hong Kong and other  than that know very little as to what I can expect in Macao.

Any thoughts/suggestions/tips are certainly welcomed.

"..
One thing I do remember because it was a beautiful piece of machinery to watch was an electronic baccarat dealing machine behind clear glass..."
     that's very interesting as I have never heard of (or seen) a robotic dealer. 



Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy

I've enjoyed perusing through all your recent posting activity/though not responding daily I am indeed viewing/pondering your thoughts.

re: reply #465 above: "...Always remembering that rare events are more likely to show up clustered and then followed by a very diluted pace of apparition. .."

     I agree especially when viewed from say a specific perspective of >=4 IAR  same-side streaks.
On the same topic:

Q: Would you also agree with an almost similar inverse logic/statement: (i.e., a very diluted pace of apparition is often followed by a clustered rare event)??

Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy--again , appreciate your willingness to elaborate as you do.

"...Since this doesn't seem to be the case, we can conclude that results are somewhat sensitive about previous outcomes, the reason being about an actual card distribution making some patterns more likely than others at certain steps and after some situations happened.."


Can you give us a couple examples of certain outcomes you most commonly track/ and the implications for wagering later in the shoe. So would you now be more inclined to look for (another of the same) event just observed or in some cases maybe (NOT another of the same)  event just observed???


Another Example: e.g., A somewhat similar topic/example you touched on in an essay a few days ago regarding consecutive same side winners by first-two-cards.  So in this question & for illustrative purposes lets say P just won three consec decisions and for this exercise lets say they won with  two-card Naturals /their totals presented as:

Player received (2-6=8, 3-5=8, 4-4=8) .
Disregarding what B received as all we know is B had totals <8 on its respective hands.

     Would you interpret the results  as P will likely be receiving fewer Naturals going forward because there are now (N-3) Naturals remaining in the shoe.
(OR)
Would you think wow Player must have the hot hand so I shall bet only P in the near future??? Other interpretations?
How would you apply the above info so that it would increase your probability of guessing with a greater accuracy in the remainder of shoe??

Thx in advance,kfb

Does any one frequently play in Macao or have you ever???

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/las-vegas-sands-corp-confident-it-will-keep-macao-gaming-license-2463199/

Hi AsymBacGuy and thx for your prompt reply. I will respond back in a couple days as I will need to review your last couple essays. I "think" I understand what you are saying, though Im not 100% clear on the application process in real time.

For example in the following paragraph (in part):

"...At B side, natural 2-card math advantaged spots will mix (or not) with a finite number of asymmetrical hands favoring the same Banker side, whenever the math edge goes right we'll get a long B streak.

But in both cases such scenarios must be considered as 'erasing' spots of the natural math 2-card propensity to get this or that.

That is that 1,2,3,4... levels of statistical propensity to get 2-card higher initial points must be assessed by disregarding actual results. ..."[/b]

     I will review some of your posts just prior to this one  before I ask questions as u may have already elaborated on this ,
Thx kfb

A fantastic read/thx for sharing alrelax.

Anydawana--"...How were things in online casinos? It seems that their system would be more challenging to hack.
..."
     Good thoughts Anydawana--as I didn't consider from that angle. Also makes one ponder if this Russia team had other schemes (hacking financial institutions, governments, corporations, bitcoin,online gambling sites, ...etc)
     

This reminds one of the old movie from the early 2000s :  "Catch Me If You Can" with Leonardo DeCaprio,T. Hanks. Even though you know the cat ultimately will win/should win. Still , occasionally in some  cat/mouse games you can't help but cheer for the mouse every once in awhile. Especially when no fatalities occurred, they werent scalping children or the elderly,...etc. Just my personal opinions as there may be more to this story.


"...a casino security expert named Darrin Hoke, who was then director of surveillance at L'Auberge du Lac Casino Resort in Lake Charles, Louisiana, took it upon himself to investigate the scope of the hacking operation..."
     A pat on the back to Mr. Hoke--without his expertise, work ethic, and determination this could have gone on for many more years or possibly until all these specific-type slot machines were retired.

I'm guessing these Russian gentleman are asking the U.S. to not send them back to their teammates in St Petersburg. Whom would likely greet them at the airport with an all-expense-paid  and one-way trip to Siberia(never to be seen or heard again)

If I was part of the group detained in the U.S. my negotiations with U.S. officials would be as follows:
A) I can work for you or against you,
B)Im just the worker Bee and most of the profits were sent back to the big hive in St Petersburg so I can't pay much in restitution (actually they probably stuck it in Bitcoin--"now I know why bitcoin is approaching an all time high") ,
C)Please give me a perpetual work visa in the US and never send me back to Russia.

     A good deal for both parties and they may actually prove to be good U.S. citizens:  1)Good work ethic so won't siphon from the welfare system, 2)Employable as they have a proven work history, 3)Disciplined and able to work as a team/follow rules, 4) Expertise with designing an efficient business model with a good ROI, (except for that one little dealio----it was illegal), 5)Trainable, and could be taught how to play Baccarat.




Continued Success To All,

Thx AsymBacGuy

Can you please clarify this last sentence in BOLD:

"...In addition, most of the times  long profitable spots cannot come out clustered for long, unless those 'incidental' spots that are supposed to break a flow tend to prolong a trend.

Say that three hands went 'normally' at B side, meaning that math propensity acting at those 2-card initial points went as expected (for simplicity we consider both sym and asym hands).
Now the fourth hand was as:

B (3-2)
P (7-J)

Banker draws and wins by catching a 3.

Is this hand forecasting a possible long Banker streak?

No way.

The 'flow' was interrupted by a more likely math advantaged hand, thus we should interpret this hand as a kind of new 0-point 'trigger' even though it seemed to prolong a given univocal pattern...."


Thx in advance,

Hi AsymBacGuy

Im finding this thread informative /helpful.


ASB:

"...More generally speaking, any single baccarat shoe will present one or more 'jackpots' spots at various degrees, meaning that univocal patterns are going to show up for 'long' or at least one more time than the opposite situation.
So we must split a shoe into 'confusing' sections mixed by a fkng easy detectable world.  ..."

     This whole paragraph is worded very well.  I really like the following:
any single baccarat shoe will present one or more 'jackpots' spots at various degrees, meaning that univocal patterns are going to show up for 'long' or at least one more time than the opposite situation.
     
     I especially like  that thought  if the "jackpot event" and the likelihood that it (JE) presents one more time--

Im also of the opinion if the JE  presented for  the first time in the earlier stages (or early part of that particular subsection of the shoe),  versus latter stages , then the propensity to reappear is slightly greater.
Just an opinion as i haven't verified that across millions of shoes or sims. Although it seems we often see that previously observed formation or pattern beginning to show again and it simply runs out of time(or the shoe finishes with alot of ties,...etc.).


Continued Success To All,

Good thoughts klw/i like your analogies above.

Great exchange of thoughts /ideas with AsymBacGuy.


AsymBacguy above:

"...Mathematically speaking, B1<B2 but B2<B3, overall the 1-3 vs 2 probability is very close to the expecte..."

    Well said/I agree AsB as that is where our overall shoe success is decided(i.e., our decisions at the critical junction of B2), and I personally also view the jct at B3 as almost as critical, though we can "see the light" a little better once at B3, at least in my opinion.
Furthermore, to add to our confusion at these two junctions is the fact that Player has a slightly different personality profile and desires at its respective P1 and P2 junctions. 

     Although you(AsB ) et al have shed some light on the above junctions with discussions regarding related topics such as sym/asym hands and how they affect trends continuing or ending. I am still needing improvement on my response time so that I can apply (sym/asym hands  trends & prob) in real time and not after the fact.



AsymBacGuy:
"...Now we have the tools to set up a 'bringing down the house' strategy by adopting a careful multilayered progressive plan that makes baccarat as the best game to take casinos' money.
See you in a couple of days...."

     Hopefully that doesn't mean you are planning on rolling out the Smoluschowski Zillionaire System  for the general public to see---as casinos shall cease and be no more.    
Just kidding as although one of my hobbies is studying great mathematicians from a few centuries ago. I actually had not heard of Marian Von Smouluschowski until u mentioned his name a year or so back on this thread.


Looking forward to your next post-- thx AsymBacGuy and continued success.kfb

Well stated my friend.

AsymBacGuy in a couple posts above:

"..Easiest way to get multiple wins in a row is about lowering the first losing attempt. We can't put much pressure about the second bet, I mean. We must proportionally share the same 'probability' weight on both bets.
Actually and after studying long statistical samples, each 'two-step' bet has shown to get a larger overall impact over that 75.7% winning ratio than what the second bet can do.
Contrary to common belief it's like that being right at the start of those two bets will be more profitable than trying to win the second bet after a first loss.
  ..."




Continued Success To All,

Thx XXVV.
Very impressive/ I am certainly intrigued.

Please provide your thoughts, opinions, and updates as you can.




Continued Success,