Good thoughts/questions klw.
I like your replies AsymBacGuy /thx for taking the time to elaborate. I always find your ideas informative and helpful as I know you are a serious/frequent player. I'm sure many other guest viewers /forum members are appreciative too.


I highlighted a couple specific sentences from your more recent replies:

"...Itlr' and 'on average' are the worst player's words when talking about gambling.
On the contrary those two words are the best casinos' allies in order to make a lot of money...."


     I agree 100%. Often I cringe when reading  or hearing  a supposed expert gaming author, dealer, player,..etc  say things
     such as "just bet B every hand", or its "just a fity-fity coin flip",...etc. 



"...Jackpots happen and we should try to be there when they happen.

Imo almost every shoe presents one or more spots where a range of hands is more probable than the counterpart and we know there are infinite ways to dissect the outcomes.   .."

     re: Your response above to the strong P-bias shoe alrelax presented as an example.
     *One of the things I try to do at the very beginning of a shoe(after the cut), is to wait until the shoe has produced at least one winner for each side and returned to the first-hand winner before wagering(e.g., p bb p). Only occasionally I might see a significant trigger then I would go ahead and make one attempt to catch an early W.
Otherwise I'm waiting/constantly asking my self Qs such as A)Where is the bias? , all the while realizing that some times there simply is NOT a strong bias right now----just be patient and wait for it.

One area Im always striving to improve is recognizing there is nearly always a little bias showing. Just hold up awhile as most shoes will have at least one or two  groups of 9-12 outcomes where a significant  biased opportunity is available. Readily available for a huge cash extraction. 





Continued Success ,

   Now that is one perfectly stated sentence.


"...The theorists have a field day with what is supposed to happen but they fall short virtually every time because of what happens overrules the should happen theory. ..."

8OR9--Your comments in reply#7/9 were stated perfectly.


Your analogy is great:

"....Rooting for a pro team is like rooting for US Steel or General Motors to have a profitable year so the CEO can get a         
$ 5,000,000 bonus at the end of the year.   No Thanks! ..."



I concur 100%.




Continued Success,

Thx AsymBacGuy
These last couple essays are two of your finest.

This is an area of my game Im trying to improve. In other words how to recognize a streak(or pattern) earlier so that I don't have to be as concerned about the length of said pattern.(*I think alrelax or gr8, maybe asymbac stated something to this effect years ago in a post).



In my efforts to improve early detection skills I often find myself combining a decision-making tree based on a probability model, combined within a biased-outcome model. All the while trying to also wager on a simple model of just betting on what the shoe is producing right now.  Sometime we may even win the decision yet not know definitively which model (if any) led us to the correct guess(at least for me).

For example, lets say a shoe presents an early string of (B PP B PP B PP). Each player at the table may be guessing right (or wrong), with all guessing in unison or maybe equally divided at 50-50. However, each player may be thinking or deducing or guessing using totally different logic, or maybe just haphazardly guessing .

*It would be interesting if each player at that table had the thoughts bubble circles floating above their heads for all to see.
Maybe we could look into each players head(Like the Mel Gibson movie: What women want where he can hear what women are thinking).


(B PP B PP B PP)

Player #1: "every B is holding at one so every time I see a B I shall bet P once and wait til i see another B"--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player"

Player #2: "every PP is holding at two so everytime I see a PP I shall bet B once and wait til I see another PP"--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player"

Player #3: "every B is turning and every PP is turning to a single B so I shall bet every hand by wagering B, followed by PP, then bet the same pattern to continue"--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player"

Player #4: "I shall always bet opposite of B single, I see a B so I shall P, P, I'm 1-0 and up a unit and there is no way this pattern can continue, color up--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player."

Player #5: "this dealer is smoking hot and I think she likes me, and since she is a perfect 10, and since all outcomes are always random I shall wager $10 on the F7,f7, --damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player." ....
......but I digress



What Im getting at is sometimes I look back on a multi-wager consecutive winning streak and realize much of my winnings came from simply identifying or some how getting on the streak early. Though Im not 100% sure if it was due to solid logic, lucid thinking, discernment, years of experience,  or did I just get lucky and right place at right time.


Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx/ many good points in above post.

re:
"...Propensities are the natural way of arranging things

Anytime a 6 or 8-deck shoe is shuffled and ready to be played, we know for sure that rank cards are not proportionally distributed.
Some portions of the actual shoe will be poor or rich of key cards, cards that most of the times affect the results..."


     Q1. What is your preferred method for tracking events on your scorecard. E.G., Do you track every card, just key cards such as 789, only side outcome total by hand,...etc, none of the above, other?



Thx/continued success,

Hi Alb

re:"...FMoDR ( It meant the finest method to defeat roulette..."

Do you have a link to this FMoDR on the forum??

Your hitting of Tlimits above is impressive.

I think roulette does indeed lend itself to (lightening in a bottle) type hit because of the greater than even payouts (especially the 35-1, e.g., 1x35x35).

Though IMO tagging an even-chance wager say seven times spread across several different streaks  may prove more probable and doable. Just my quick thoughts as I haven't spent much time and research on this type of betting regime. 

If i did pursue this type of approach I would be in favor of starting a compound with the largest compound for the first leg. Then place a bet on depreciating compound % type wagers so the higher wagers and latter legs are approaching and on and  even-chance bet. For example, lets say a person placed a 1unit wager on the "hottest" number so far, lets say "0" in roulette and after 25 attempts it hits, so we now a have 10-1 compound on the first leg (35-24), keep 1, then   1000% compound or $10unit on the next leg, then wager on maybe a 2-1odds wager, and the final legs at 1-1,...etc.
Though we do see repeating numbers hit three times consec quite frequently(1x35x35).

Another approach is to utilize an even-chance wager to "feed" the higher payout wagers attempts continuously, so we are not depleting our Buyin on the higher-edge risky wagers. I do this sometimes in Bac.

I don't typically play like the above examples and not advocating such, just pondering the potential.

*I once saw a friend at a craps table wager a green on boxcars(12), it hits and he parlays(30-1), then parlays again($25x30, goes to 775, x30=23250), and all down.  The stickman realized after the second parlay they were well above table max allowed for bonus bet payouts and questioned if they should go ahead and payout. Boxman asks did he hear player say full press, stick man and several players said yes, boxman calls upstairs, and in about 15 seconds turns around and says "pay the man". This player mostly plays texas holdem ,seldom ever played craps, and probably didn't even know all the rules--just right place right time.


Continued Success To All,

Good thoughts Alb

Yes, I always have my eye on the table limits, or Tmax. IMO one of main reasons cas(most) have such low tmax is to prevent a pospro player from scalping them, and potentially get scalped several times in close proximity.  No limit on the upside could be dangerous to the casino, unlikely, though still a small probability.
Especially the smaller family-owned casinos that are content to net 2-5 mil per annum.

I think pospro players should always design their progression to hit exactly @ tmax, or at least have that potential.
Then start reducing (never stand still), or even regress to base unit. Im not suggesting to never take profit--just suggesting we should be prepared should that rare streak present.

I do not believe casinos design tmax mainly in fear of the aggressive negpro(steep marty) player. Because the steep-marty negpro player is mostly receiving their own money back on that win. 

Continued success to all,

AsymBacGuy--

I like how you worded this.

My difficulty is how to apply this "clustering and limiting affect" most efficiently, that is, during its earliest occurrence and not ex post facto .


"...- there's a dependency between back to back outcomes, privileging a clustering effect as key cards cannot be distributed proportionally along any shoe unless voluntarily placed.
That is most of the outcomes considered by different random walks are sensitive to what happened in the same shoe, getting limiting values of relative frequency more restricted than what a pure random world dictates. ..."


Continued Success,

Excellent and spot on.

I agree 8OR9, George C was my favorite. He would be even more potent in todays environment.

continued success,

Thx alrelax

Great list--I agree with most.

Some of the most important IMO:

     6)  You have to Lose to Win.

          Same as in life: we often learn more from the strikeouts then we do the home runs.

     
     17)   Employing a Stop Loss and a Stop Win, without a complete money management method that will only frustrate,
     confuse and make most all players go down the wrong roads.

          Yes indeed---To me personally controlling (limiting) the the loss is most important. Im against limiting the
          upside(however,  thou shall not be greedy). 


Continued Success To All,

https://www.westgateresorts.com/hotels/nevada/las-vegas/westgate-las-vegas-resort-casino/casino/supercontest/

Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx for answering my question from (reply #399) above.






Continued Success To All,

Thx alrelax for taking the time for responding with a play-by-play. that's interesting as well as instructive.

"...Also, those 2 ties were both natural ties, so it was like, here comes the bankers side coming forth.  Pressed 2nd and third after ties, stayed on players.  Cut way down on the 5th player..."
     I agree the two ties in P c1 would have caused a pause(at least for me betting into a potential P run). Sometimes if I have pressed a wager several times into a significant pos progression I will set it aside and stay on the streak at my 1.0 base unit level when I have situation causing pause, then reinsert the pressed-up wager when my interpretation of current events has more clarity.
    Once we saw the P c2 run the P c3/Pc4 streaks would have been easier to justify betting for P to run upward to 4th-6th. Of course then our brains would have been thinking logically: "there's no way P is going to have four consec columns approaching 6iar,...etc" ... or at least my brain would have been trying to convince this isn't typical.

Again, this was from jump street.  Yes there are plenty of runs in the beginning, but not multiple columns such as this.

The others 'at times' see various insights that allow themselves to profit nicely and quickly.  That sticks with me when I play.  For example, a few nights prior to this one of the regular players there pointed out how every natural 8, every 3rd card total of 8, caused the subsequent hand to have the opposite side win. He pointed out around hand 30 with numerous situations.  Then the rest of the shoe held true to that situation.  Again, doesn't always happen, but when it does, it is there. 

*
"...To me, maybe not yourselves, the hardest shoes to play are the 1s, 2s and 3s, a streak of 4 to 7 here and there and everything mixed in the way most shoes are, is super hard...."
     Perfectly stated.


So in hindsight Im sure u played it about as efficiently as possible. The other players that bought in for the similar amounts as you (the players betting for B streaks or the cuts) would probably be happy to trade their ROI with yours.

The others bought in repeatedly bought in for multiple times my buy in each time they did.

Thx again/continued success

Hi alrelax
Thx for TR  /toteboard pic

re: Reply #397

Gravy train shoe for sure.

On the first two P columns did you do your oft mentioned pospros (1326 or the 1248 16,1...etc, or other?), and did u continue with  your pospro through the 5th/6th hits on the first two P column runs? 
How or did these initial P runs affect your wagering approach when the even better P-runs presented in P columns 3/4???

Without knowing anything else I likely would NOT have continued with my largest wager on Player C1 hit # 5th/6th, however, after the first two P colum runs the 3rd/4th P runs that showed immediately following your toteboard pic,  would have been difficult to stay off. Especially with such precedence showing at that strength level.
....just hypothesizing as maybe dif opinion if more info, ..who knows as kinda the ol hindsight always converges toward 20/20.

*I know its easy to monday-morning quarterback a game like this


Thx again/continued success,

Thx AsymBacGuy
Good posts/ several good points in the last couple essays--I like that you also take time in your posts to give specific examples.

"...Virtually speaking the probability that every shoe will not present a back to back same pattern on different random walks is zero.
I mean that at some point 1 must be followed by another 1 (2s and 3s as enemies), 2 by another 2 (3s as enemy) and 3 by another 3 (2s as enemy).


re: 3 by another 3 (2s as enemy).[/b]
     Q: Is your example referring to  (BBB: P BBB)  or  (BBB:PPP)

Thanks