Hi AsymBacGuy
Thx for the last couple of posts here--I like that you view bac through a dif lens than alot of players.

"..Positionally speaking, if any event is already more likely than the counterpart, vertical 'hand insensitive' spots considered shoe per shoe will be even more likely or not, meaning that shoe single digit numbers will deviate from a supposedly perfect random world..."

     Q: Can u clarify or elaborate a little more on this sentence .


"..Moreover an interesting study has found out that rare events tend to come out in clusters then declining in probability.
The authors of this study claimed that such findings wouldn't get an advantage over gambling games...."
     I agree with the first sentence  re: clustering.

     Im not sure(or don't have a strong opinion) on the second sentence.  At first glance I guess it could, however, other factors to consider. 

Q : Do you recall the link to these authors' study. 


Thx in advance,kfb

Hi alrelax

Good post. I like the Fifth as shown below from your 1-5 list.  There is certainly a subtle (yet important) difference between drawdown vs stop loss.  That last sentence affects most of us. It is very doubtful that any of us would be feeling optimistic about our upcoming decision if we had just been whacked on say 4 of last 5 decisions and approaching our drawdown.

*A Funny Side Story--I recall once guessing wrong on 7/8 of my first decisions in a shoe. What made it even more memorable is that I had recently been on a two week daily run wining streak with a very high win percentage / just taken a 3-day trip where I had been whacked early on and though recovered some still tagged with an overall trip loss(thus ending my win streak) .

So I was eager to "get back into the saddle" and went out to play the very next evening after returning from my trip(whereas I usually took a day off). Right out of the first shoe of the day I missed on those first 7/8 decisions and literally felt like I had been hit with a 2 x 4. The kicker was to add to my internal pressure of not sticking to a drawdown rule  is a 60ish y.o. couple (in matching shirts/pants), sipping matching pina coladas , and appeared to just be wandering around observing the games. They stand directly behind me and start pecking me on the shoulder asking: "is this game hard to learn?" and several more Q like :  "why don't u just bet the red color because it is winning?" lol.  Though I tried to be polite it certainly didn't help to have them behind me . Thankfully, the dealer finally waived them along and told them  not to stand behind/ask players questions. I ended up losing the shoe--still recall it like it was yesterday. Bottomline: I shouldnt have even been in the casino the next day post the 3day losing trip as Im sure there was carryover of negative emotions. Along with alrelax post above my drawdown rule coupled with the negativity, and my negative internal sentiment, should have kept me out of the shoe after the first several misses on the 7 of 8 losing streak. Lesson learned (the hard way).

".....Fifth.  Don't confuse drawdown with stop loss. Many will fail to see the difference but there really is. Drawdown is an undetermined and unplanned amount of money that will be lost before you realize a profit that is within your horizon of, 'winning the session and it is time for me to stop', thought and belief you religiously and wholeheartedly subscribe to that governs how you play. Stop loss is simply a set amount of money if you lose out of a buy-in, you will stop playing, no leeway and no questions. Stop loss is not figured into your playing protocol, while drawdown has to be viewed that way and planned for.  Because what you are actually doing if you do include drawdown into your buyin and protocol of playing, is you are combating great negativity that affects every player...."



Continued Success,

Hi PatternAnalys

Good Point: There no law stipulates, that in labby,
one must start from a single digit,
or must closed the long string og million digits string.


There no law stipulates, that in labby,
one must start from a single digit,
or must closed the long string og million digits string...
If you start a labby with a single digit,
say,
"1",
then 33.34%hit ,no matter how many bets,...needed to closed the labby.

If we start with two digit,
say,
(0)(1), then 33.34% +1more hit .
needed to closed.

say, three,
0,0,1.
then 33.34+ 2more hit,
and so on.
Thus in 2000bets, 900 hit almost certain...
2000x33.4~=667..-900=233long string


* I like your name: PatternAnalys


Continued Success,

Hi Albalaha--I see youre still in the laboratory.

re: your thoughts. "...Shoes doesn't matter buddy. It is only a sequence of wins and losses for me. Say it is coin flipping and if they change coin, should it change any probability? I do not understand why guys like you who has considerable knowledge of math and experience ask such questions..."[/b]
     Because when Im not at live tables (approx 1800 hands per week), Im studying, and constantly striving to learn and improve my game from other players (especially the online players).

"...online, it is 10 to 50k on most tables and 25 to 5k-10k on others. I hate restrained bet limits. Although my current methodology seldom requires bet of more than 15 units. ..."

     Yes , I can only imagine how burdensome that must be to you.


Next News Story: "ALBALAHA COMING TO AMERICA"

"...Maybe some day. I do not want to feature in the black book of casinos. Thanks for the best wishes..."

     Good thinking--To help with that worry and to "lay low" or "fly under the radar",...etc, you could maybe consider playing under an alias (e.g., Kung Fubac ).

"...Thanks for the best wishes.."

You are welcome.

Hi Albalaha--Fine Post.
It appears you have been spending alot of time in the lab.

"...30 consecutive trials with 9 or lesser wins; or
8 or more consecutive losses before a W hits; or
10 or more losses, in the last two wins like LLLLLLWLLLLW
These will be a 2 SD (below mean) case..."

     This is interesting. I would hypothesize u should see this often enough at front end of shoes to make your wait time tolerable.
     Q: Am I correct you allow these triggers to present across two shoes??

"...Plus, I will keep a target of +50 and stop loss of -100
I believe that due to sequential probability, I have got at least 90% chances to win a session and combining all these forces would make it 95%. However, certain sessions might not yield 50 units. ..."

     I like your metric and ratios on this part.

Re: However, certain sessions might not yield 50 units.
     Q: When it doesn't achieve >=50 U win do you mean it approaches 50(like + 43, 48,...etc)??

"...Only downside of this strategy is to wait for a valid alert but even if I have access to 4-5 tables with marquee, it is easy to get 3-5 alerts in 5-8 hours in a real casino, in baccarat. I have got access to 50+ tables of live baccarat online 24x7x365 so easy for me to get even more everyday..."

     What is bet spread for most of your online casinos? Can u actually see the cut and dealers dispersing cards for each individual hand??

*Casino in Vegas offers multi-portal Stadium Bac (wager on 4 live dealer tables at once) from your own individual monitor with dealers in view/video transmitted to your screen,...etc. $5--10K bet spread.

Next News Story: "ALBALAHA COMING TO AMERICA"


Good work Albalaha.



Continued Success,

Hi a.s.
I appreciate u offering an opinion on my thoughts/inquiry. I know my example didn't provide alot of info.
That event actually happened. It was a crazy shoe/session not only from the pre-game ritual but the dealer was new and made two misdraws during the shoe,...etc. It was years ago at a cas in Nevada approx 40 mins off the strip.

"Lets say u approach the bac table for the first shoe of the morning. The dealer is hurriedly doing the pre game rituals to open the table and you hear the dealer say to the pit boss "wait, hold on i accidentally did a blackjack shuffle" and the pit boss responds "oh just Fxxx It , just get the game started,  youre already 10 mins late."


Thx again,

Thx AsymBacGuy for your reply. I agree.



Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy

re: your following statement from a previous post in this thread:

"...Technically speaking and whether the cards are properly random shuffled, now the game is a finite (312 or 416 cards are employed) and made by independent binomial successions...."


? Do you approach a six-deck shoe different than an eight-deck ? How?
Any opinions on same-side streaks or chops comparison from a shoe length perspective? 

When comparing the two shoes do you prefer one over the other for your most-commonly utilized wagering approach?

Thx

Hi AsymBacGuy--Excellent post as usual.

Re your following paragraph:

"...1.
Many times shoes are shuffled after a previous card distribution was made, yet it's very difficult to provide a strong new random card distribution.
It's quite interesting to notice that poor shuffled shoes tend to provide strong opposite patterns than what the previous one had provided. And we get at least 4 simple roads to assess this probability.
This feature is particularly reliable when Shuffle Master Machines are used and at online sites where more often than not shoes are ridiculously bad shuffled. ..."

Q with an example:

Lets say u approach the bac table for the first shoe of the morning. The dealer is hurriedly doing the pre game rituals to open the table and you hear the dealer say to the pit boss "wait, hold on i accidentally did a blackjack shuffle" and the pit boss responds "oh just Fxxx It , just get the game started,  youre already 10 mins late."

I don't know but Im assuming the shuffler has a button one can push for Bac shuffle, BJ shuffle, Mississippi Stud shuffle, XYZ game shuffle,....etc. Again, I do not know.


AsymBacGuy, What type of outcomes would you wager for in that type of shoe? vs a typically-shuffled Bac shoe???


Thanks in advance for your opinion.

Hi Alrelax--thx for posting. We are looking forward to the play-by-play.
Did you continue playing after Section C? If so how did u wager? And if u did indeed wager Post-Sect C did u wager the same in (D) as u did in (C). Many thx.



Cheers,kfb

Ok VLS-- thx for heads up.


Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9 for link to article by your former Prof : Dr. Harlow. Excellent read and most certainly related to gambling(especially even-chance weighted type wagers).

A great line: "...It seems that the capacity of the untrained human mind to resist the intrusion of knowledge continues to be virtually infinite..."   




Continued Success,

Hi Alrelax/thx for responding to my thoughts on immediate aftermath of a  Long-Side Streak to anticipate that recent side run to start up again.

Alrelax:
"...I remember to this day from the Atlantic City days I had back in the late 80's and the 90s there was this one guy that would sit there and bet table Max of $10,000 on two wagers and one of them was after there was a streak of seven or eight of more on one side, then cut he would bet the very next one on the same side that the streak was, like my example shows.

Example, say there was a streak of 10 players and then it fell off to the bank, his table Max wager would be back on the player for the following hand. More so with the players than the bankers because some reason right after Banker streaks so many times the player tries to catch up a bit...."

In all likelihood I may have inserted that into my arsenal a couple years back because I did indeed read it first from one of your older posts. However,  I typically implement that logic for both sides' streak. I may decide to rethink that a little.

I think of that stage as "wagering on the turn" and more difficult(at least for me). In the aforementioned P10iar P streak I would have likely set aside my pressed up wager around the 7th hit, reduced to 1.0 Base Unit til  the end. So with my pressed-up and set aside wager preparing to be sent out I would have been extra cautious on the next hand after the P-Streak ending B1. Sometimes I will wait one more hand to try and decipher additional intel. Sometimes I will check to see if that B1 hand  had a change in card count(e.g., 4 to 5 or 5 to 4,..etc) from the immediately preceding two hands, and try to glean something from how that would change the very next hands' card order. 

Thx again,

After watching the YT video by 8or9 I then read the bio by Alrelax.

The Karas story is certainly very interesting. I've researched him in past couple days and really intrigued with his story.

I would watch a Karas movie in a heart beat. Its difficult to imagine why no one has produced one(that Im aware of).
Has any forum member played with him? Know him? Additional info ??

From Alrelax Post:
"...With a little over $10,000 in his pocket, Karas went to a bar with a pool table adjacent from the Liberace Plaza on East Tropicana. There he found a wealthy and respected poker and pool player. Karas refused to reveal his name for the sake of his opponent's reputation; he simply referred to him as "Mr. X".

     A classy move by Karas.

...They started playing 9-ball pool at $5,000 a game raising the stakes as games progressed. After Karas won several hundred thousand dollars, they raised the stakes to $40,000 a game. Many gamblers and professional poker players watched Archie play with stakes never seen before. Karas ended up winning $1,200,000. The two decided to play poker at Binion's Horseshoe where Karas won an additional $3,000,000 from Mr. X. Karas was willing to gamble everything he made and continued to raise the stakes to a level few dared to play at...."

"...With a bankroll of $4 million, Karas gambled his bankroll up to $7 million after spending only three months in Vegas. By now, many poker players had heard of Mr. X's losses to Archie. Only the best players dared to challenge him. Karas sat at the Binion's Horseshoe's poker table with 5 of his 7 million dollars in front of him, waiting for any players willing to play for such stakes...."


     Gotta love it.



re:His arrest/ probation, banned from Nevada casinos,...etc.

There seems to be a little more to this story. Possibly more has been published /I simply couldnt find it.  I can't see them prosecuting him for such an alleged crime and then not going for some of his assets, pushing for more punitive consequences,..etc, and then after all the hoopla just settling for the ban/probation. Im not insinuating he is an angel and did no wrong. I also think the cas had an intense desire to get him out of the casinos.

I also don't buy the part that he is broke. When he was up 20mil or 40M , or whatever it was, driving around with 5M in cash,...etc. I can't help but think he was sending stacks of cash back home with his mother, burying in his back yard, buying antique cars, Gold coins,...etc. Something with intrinsic value.  My thinking also is that he didn't choose to continue residing in Vegas (because of the weather or its such a great livable city).

Maybe he backs other players,...etc. Maybe he claimed he was broke so casino/IRS wouldn't go after him with frivolous accusations.

Though I do think he likely gambled back the largest part of his winnings. I also consider the likelihood Karas has been showing us a poker face in recent years to avoid heat from a variety of sources. Some of his concerns could have merit/some may be a little paranoia on his part.

Just wondering/ pondering as I have become very intrigued with him.




Continued Success,

Thx AsymBacGuy for explaining in reply to my Q

"..if we decide to make 7 bets per shoe (by flat betting), every shoe starting with a L will produce more final losing shoes than winning shoes. And the same is oppositely true about shoes starting with a W.
In addition, it's obvious to notice that shoes starting with a L cannot produce all winning shoes as that L must be incorporated among our 7-hand betting streak..."

kfb