Hi Alb

Thx for answering my question.

KFB:
"...*However, lets say we again only received 6/20 P wins in part B (2nd 20-decisions sample).
?Do you then calculate the confidence level again and retry in the very immediate next 20 decisions (i.e., Decisions 41-60)? Or do you address it with another tier of money management or wager size??  Start over?  Other?

Alb
In such cases, I would bet again with same trigger

147th Run For The Roses

WHEN: This year, the Kentucky Derby is on May 1. 2021 Kentucky Derby post time is set for 6:50 p.m.

Where: Churchhill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky.
Probability of Rain: The average high for May 1 is 73 degrees/a low of 53, with rainfall 0.71 inches. The 2018 Derby was the wettest ever recorded, and rain soaked the track again in 2019.

How Long Is Derby:  1 1/4 miles or 10 furlongs, the Kentucky Derby is almost always the longest race run by horses competing in it, which is considered the first leg of the Triple Crown. Secretariat's 1973 time of 1:59.40 remains the fastest.

Who Can Enter: The race is open to up to 20 3-year-old horses that have qualified through Churchill Downs' "Road to the Kentucky Derby" points system. This points system was first implemented for the 2013 running.

How Much Is Purse: The Kentucky Derby is still a $2 million race, with $1.4 million to the winner. Positions are paid out through fifth place.

When Is The KD Draw: "Entries are taken and post positions determined on the Tuesday of Kentucky Derby Week at 11 a.m. The process is random but does have a major effect on the outcome. The inside, No. 1 post is considered the worst possible draw. The No. 17 post is 0-for-38, the only one 1-20 to have not produced a winner.
Last year's winner, Authentic, broke from the No. 18 gate. The highest percentage of winners come from the fifth and 10th posts."

Horse Entries(Not post position):

2021 Kentucky Derby contenders, odds (Taken in part from an article posted 4/26 by CBS Sports Staff)

Horse   Odds

Essential Quality   5-2
Hot Rod Charlie   6-1
Medina Spirit   8-1
Rock Your World   8-1
Known Agenda   12-1
Highly Motivated   15-1
Mandaloun   15-1
Midnight Bourbon   15-1
Super Stock   20-1
Bourbonic   30-1
Dynamic One   30-1
Soup and Sandwich   30-1
Helium   50-1
Hidden Stash   50-1
Like the King   50-1
Sainthood   50-1
Dream Shake   N/A
O Besos   N/A
Get Her Number   N/A
____________________________________________________________________________

How do I wager on Derby day?

My modus operandi is to arrive early on Derby day to a nearby OTB sports book. I always allot  ten  $100 tickets with approx three of the $100 tickets reserved for only the Derby itself. I select approx six or seven races prior to the KD and wager approx $70 on a straight up ticket to Win, along with one Exotic @ $30 approx, and that includes my Win selection as part of it(I strive to not hedge my W horse).
Generally I watch the early races and then depart the OTB  book with sufficient time to get home so I can watch Derby from home.

A couple guidelines I try to implement when selecting my wagers:

a) I like horses to Win that are in the 5:2 odds range or (between 2:1 and 3:1).

b) I like to select my Win horse based on the one I feel is superior(even if it means not getting optimum odds and thus paying a little vig on that selection by not receiving optimum payout). Sometimes that may slightly violate rule (a). Sometimes I will simply choose to skip that race if I'm required to pay too much vig based on my assessment.

c) I like to search for atypical pool balances when selecting my Exotic wager.

d) I like to choose races where <= eight entries. (Obviously difficult on Derby and many other races on D day.

My 2021 picks as of 4/26 without knowing Post Postions:
Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Hot Rod Charlie

*If EQ stays at current 5/2, all other variable stay the same, then it will be my pick to Win.

**I am net negative on horse handicapping based on my past 13 years of record keeping. I typically only bet on days  for the Triple Crown races.

Ok lets hear it from all the horse handicappers.

Best of luck to all,kfb



Info written in part from a fine article published in the Louisville Courier Journal by Emma Austin. I did not verify or confirm the accuracy for any of the info above.  The Odds above extracted from a fine article published by CBS Sports Staff.

Hi Albalaha

In previous post I reiterated you prior comments and you confirmed my interpretation: P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered, so you are confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions.

So going along with your above hypothesis-- lets say we satisfy the first part:
A) P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered,

B) then we examine the next 20 decisions which is the next part of the hypotheses: "...confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions.

     *However, lets say we again only received 6/20 P wins in part B (2nd 20-decisions sample).
?Do you then calculate the confidence level again and retry in the very immediate next 20 decisions (i.e., Decisions 41-60)? Or do you address it with another tier of money management or wager size??  Start over?  Other?


Thx

Thx for posting 8OR9--Good interview.



Continued success,

Hi Alrelax
Excellent P shoe. Thanks (as always) for taking the time to post these.
I think most of us would have caught 6-8 of that 10iar P run. However, in my efforts to catch another smaller P run immediately afterward I may have missed most or at least the first 3-4 of that 8iar single B1 streak that promptly showed next. re: the 8iar B1 streak---that's the kind of run that tends to slip up on us, as i sometimes look back in hindsight and wonder how I didn't see that (usually because i was overly focused on NOT that). 
Great shoe.

As my great uncle Confucius once said: "When in doubt just keep riding the horse in the direction its headed."



Continued Success To All,

Hi Alrelax

re: your sentence  "...Except player will and does have a better chance to form more clumps and runs then Banker does..."

Can you give an example of what u mean by clumps. For example are you referencing outcomes such as : PPPbPPPbPPPP for a (10-2) P-dom clump?? or say: PPPPPPP b PPPPPPPP ,...etc where two long runs are back-to-back,   or are you referring to something else ?  None of the above?

Thx in advance

Hi AsymBacGuy
Good post above.

I like this statement: "...Imo winning by flat betting means that after long trials our strategy got more winning clusters than expected and not because the strategy tried to contain in some way the losing clusters' counterpart, even though the latter could be inferior in number..."

AS: "...How many hands should we play per shoe to get the most of the above features?

Of course the "shoe presenting all winning spots" must be restricted within a relatively short bets amount, we've found out that on average one hand per every ten hands dealt are a good approximated ratio to look for.
That is 7-8 bets per playable shoe, of course this being an expression of average outcomes' distribution.
Naturally more often than not we need just one betting spot to be ahead when searching at a simple WW spot.
Losing spots coming out along the way (especially at the very first situation considered) reduce such ratio up to the point that we can simply get rid of that shoe without losing a dime..."[/b]

re:  The Bold Part.   I think I understand, however, could you give a specific example for the sentence in BOLD,

Thank you

Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy

I hope to have explained better the issue.

Yes, perfect, & as always thanks for elaboration.

Cheers,

Hi Albalaha/thx for post /comments above. I can tell you have been working diligently on this latest project.

Q: So to clarify u are suggesting as an example: P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered, so you are confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions. ??

Thx in advance,

"...What luck is vs. what your skill is.
Anyone can win
Anyone can lose,..."

I agree. I also think the first one(luck vs skill) is often difficult to discern (For beginners as well as veterans).

Mainly because its difficult to determine if we just stumbled onto a streaky shoe and went with the flow--or-- did we use skill to make our  various-pattern selections/ that happened to also be in sync with the outcomes--or-- a person always wagered for one pattern and Variance raised up and smiled & granted favor for that one pattern in a 74-hand stint...etc.

     The above scenarios are often confusing and misinterpreted. IMO that misguided confusion is what often makes it difficult to see in the Luck vs. Skill dilemma because Luck and Skill are often blended and not clear.

*I recall very early on in my bac play I was wagering for P streaks and stumbled onto a P-Dom shoe that produced 9,8,6,6,5  Pstreaks. Im not sure why i was only betting for P streaks(prob read it in a book, saw a big bettor win big with P streaks,....etc or similar nonsensical thinking).

If I remember correctly I was doing a 1,2,4,8,8, then continuing with a cumulative 20% add on each compound to the end. I won almost 300% of buyin and felt really smart. I had noted two other neg-pro players bust in the shoe(so Im sure their perception of P streaks,variance, luck, skill,..etc  was different than mine)

Guess what I wagered  for in my next shoe, next shoe, next shoe: P streaks. I didn't feel so intelligent after a few more similar-wagered shoes.

In hindsight Im quite sure it didn't have anything to do with my superlative Bac skillset. Was it luck or skill?
Probably just luck, or we could say it was simply Variance and I was fortunate to be in sync.


Continued Success,

Alrelax: Low Ties=Presentment Consistency.
I have found this tip to hold water in many shoes. I had read this in an older alrelax post some time ago/started monitoring.

Im not fond of wagering for Ties, however, I do like to utilize them as a trigger and or indicator as mentioned above.

Does anyone utilize Tie Wagering as a major part of their betting regime??


Continued Success To All,

Hi Alrelax /Thx

Perfect list/ excellent ranking as that would be a difficult task. It makes one desire to return to the simple life of the 70s/80s.

*I did comb through this list twice and realized you accidentally left one off (Eagles,Take it the limit one more time, w Randy Meisner). Im guessing you simply didn't have any more room at 1A .   

Thx Albalaha
"...I tried my hands on over 200 online casinos..."

Alb do you have a TopTen list or lets say 3 best/3worst?  Why?
Thx in advance.

Though I haven't considered online(mainly paranoia ),  plus the fact Im fortunate to  have 100+ casinos 4min--4hours driving within a 3-state area.

However, I can see some may like the 24/7 idea, no driving, no smoke, no inebriated players...etc. I do agree the casino environment can indeed seem taxing at times.
On the flip side I think most also enjoy being catered to with free play, free food, free toasters, blenders, TVs, ....etc, as well. At least I do. Plus they make great "regifting" ideas in late December.



Continued Success To All,

Good Morning  Asym/thx

"...Only a team could approach the 7-tier system in the original aggressive version having a "leader" instructing when to bet and sharing an enormous bankroll..."

Yes, we might could get a 3-member team to agree on the benefits of diluting the effects of variance across our wagers/buyin.  However, that same 3-member team may not be as enthused when it came time to split the profits (33/33/33%). :)
Anyway, i get your point.

Asym: "...Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation..."

     *Im not sure what you mean by this phrase.


Continued Success,

Hi Albalaha Thx for updates.

What type of bet spread do you anticipate needing(as a minimum?) for this latest system?

How many shoes do you consider a session?

thx,
kfb