Hi alrelax
Good post as i just re viewed this although I read awhile back. Several key points regarding negpro and some of the issues. I will preface my thoughts with the fact Im almost a 100% pospro so my opinions may be biased. Im sure negpro-only players can also point out some of the negative aspects of pos pro-only systems.
My perception is that your post speaks mostly on steep martys. However, imo a diluted marty(slower curve with more negpro levels) is just as dangerous or even more so. Though the diluted marty may spread out the pain it will in the end still deliver alot of unnecessary pain even if it does prevail in the end. This "unnecessary" pain one must endure (and even if victorious), only receives a small prize in the end, is my main reason for not choosing a negpro.
My quick thoughts:
Both negpro and pospro are compounding any advantage(or lack of). Neither change the EV for the Cas.
For the most part the difference simply boils down to which type of personality one is more aligned. Do we feel more comfortable limiting a loss or amplifying a win. I am more aligned with the latter.
"... to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7.
But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd! And it will play on almost everyone's mind, almost. ..."
I think it goes back to ones personality. The fear of losing or being drawn down is greater than ones willingness and desire to accept a big win. Same reason much of society (think commercials) play on this common "fear" trait.
E.G., Additional insurance to cover/improve your current insurance policy. "You already have a boatload of insurance for everything--then you need to buy our supplemental insurance to supplement the supplement plan,...etc. "
Additional medicine to add to or improve your current medicine so you get less sick or don't die die die--Even though the Rx company originally touted the first medicine as the goto cureall, just to name a few. It seems every where I look society is playing on fear.
Fear is a powerful emotion. Fear is a good thing and needed , especially for us gamblers. However, imo unreasonable and non-warranted fear sometime drives too many of our gambling decisions.
"... Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into. .."
If one must do a negpro only and always do negpro I think the key is to NOT feel a need to make up the losses immediately on this shoe or this session or this day. Albalaha writes alot of good essays on this --pointing out that optimally its best to not attempt getting it all back at once.
"... Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives..."
I agree 100%. If one must play a negpro and must recoup quick I would be more inline with a negpro containing five levels (vs say 7-9) and rewards the bettor with slightly larger win the deeper one is forced to endure additional pain levels.
E.G., 1,3,7,15,31 .
So the bettor would need to see a specific event six consec times to lose. The loss shouldnt be catastrophic to ones total bankroll. Call it a session and be done with it. One can continue with a recoup in future sessions if one must recoup. The main prob I see with the steep marty isn't neccessarily that i have a disdain for negpro martys. Its the number of steep levels in the approach that majority of players want to implement--just to avoid the pain of a loss in that single session. I say give your money a fair chance to prevail and just accept the small loss.
Learning how to lose and how to limit the inevitable losses helped me learn how to accept larger and more frequent wins. Though I still get my share of the L sessions.
Thx again alrelax for all your posts.
Continued Success,
Good post as i just re viewed this although I read awhile back. Several key points regarding negpro and some of the issues. I will preface my thoughts with the fact Im almost a 100% pospro so my opinions may be biased. Im sure negpro-only players can also point out some of the negative aspects of pos pro-only systems.
My perception is that your post speaks mostly on steep martys. However, imo a diluted marty(slower curve with more negpro levels) is just as dangerous or even more so. Though the diluted marty may spread out the pain it will in the end still deliver alot of unnecessary pain even if it does prevail in the end. This "unnecessary" pain one must endure (and even if victorious), only receives a small prize in the end, is my main reason for not choosing a negpro.
My quick thoughts:
Both negpro and pospro are compounding any advantage(or lack of). Neither change the EV for the Cas.
For the most part the difference simply boils down to which type of personality one is more aligned. Do we feel more comfortable limiting a loss or amplifying a win. I am more aligned with the latter.
"... to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7.
But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd! And it will play on almost everyone's mind, almost. ..."
I think it goes back to ones personality. The fear of losing or being drawn down is greater than ones willingness and desire to accept a big win. Same reason much of society (think commercials) play on this common "fear" trait.
E.G., Additional insurance to cover/improve your current insurance policy. "You already have a boatload of insurance for everything--then you need to buy our supplemental insurance to supplement the supplement plan,...etc. "
Additional medicine to add to or improve your current medicine so you get less sick or don't die die die--Even though the Rx company originally touted the first medicine as the goto cureall, just to name a few. It seems every where I look society is playing on fear.
Fear is a powerful emotion. Fear is a good thing and needed , especially for us gamblers. However, imo unreasonable and non-warranted fear sometime drives too many of our gambling decisions.
"... Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into. .."
If one must do a negpro only and always do negpro I think the key is to NOT feel a need to make up the losses immediately on this shoe or this session or this day. Albalaha writes alot of good essays on this --pointing out that optimally its best to not attempt getting it all back at once.
"... Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives..."
I agree 100%. If one must play a negpro and must recoup quick I would be more inline with a negpro containing five levels (vs say 7-9) and rewards the bettor with slightly larger win the deeper one is forced to endure additional pain levels.
E.G., 1,3,7,15,31 .
So the bettor would need to see a specific event six consec times to lose. The loss shouldnt be catastrophic to ones total bankroll. Call it a session and be done with it. One can continue with a recoup in future sessions if one must recoup. The main prob I see with the steep marty isn't neccessarily that i have a disdain for negpro martys. Its the number of steep levels in the approach that majority of players want to implement--just to avoid the pain of a loss in that single session. I say give your money a fair chance to prevail and just accept the small loss.
Learning how to lose and how to limit the inevitable losses helped me learn how to accept larger and more frequent wins. Though I still get my share of the L sessions.
Thx again alrelax for all your posts.
Continued Success,
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