Hi AsymBacGuy--Excellent post as usual.

Re your following paragraph:

"...1.
Many times shoes are shuffled after a previous card distribution was made, yet it's very difficult to provide a strong new random card distribution.
It's quite interesting to notice that poor shuffled shoes tend to provide strong opposite patterns than what the previous one had provided. And we get at least 4 simple roads to assess this probability.
This feature is particularly reliable when Shuffle Master Machines are used and at online sites where more often than not shoes are ridiculously bad shuffled. ..."

Q with an example:

Lets say u approach the bac table for the first shoe of the morning. The dealer is hurriedly doing the pre game rituals to open the table and you hear the dealer say to the pit boss "wait, hold on i accidentally did a blackjack shuffle" and the pit boss responds "oh just Fxxx It , just get the game started,  youre already 10 mins late."

I don't know but Im assuming the shuffler has a button one can push for Bac shuffle, BJ shuffle, Mississippi Stud shuffle, XYZ game shuffle,....etc. Again, I do not know.


AsymBacGuy, What type of outcomes would you wager for in that type of shoe? vs a typically-shuffled Bac shoe???


Thanks in advance for your opinion.

Hi Alrelax--thx for posting. We are looking forward to the play-by-play.
Did you continue playing after Section C? If so how did u wager? And if u did indeed wager Post-Sect C did u wager the same in (D) as u did in (C). Many thx.



Cheers,kfb

Ok VLS-- thx for heads up.


Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9 for link to article by your former Prof : Dr. Harlow. Excellent read and most certainly related to gambling(especially even-chance weighted type wagers).

A great line: "...It seems that the capacity of the untrained human mind to resist the intrusion of knowledge continues to be virtually infinite..."   




Continued Success,

Hi Alrelax/thx for responding to my thoughts on immediate aftermath of a  Long-Side Streak to anticipate that recent side run to start up again.

Alrelax:
"...I remember to this day from the Atlantic City days I had back in the late 80's and the 90s there was this one guy that would sit there and bet table Max of $10,000 on two wagers and one of them was after there was a streak of seven or eight of more on one side, then cut he would bet the very next one on the same side that the streak was, like my example shows.

Example, say there was a streak of 10 players and then it fell off to the bank, his table Max wager would be back on the player for the following hand. More so with the players than the bankers because some reason right after Banker streaks so many times the player tries to catch up a bit...."

In all likelihood I may have inserted that into my arsenal a couple years back because I did indeed read it first from one of your older posts. However,  I typically implement that logic for both sides' streak. I may decide to rethink that a little.

I think of that stage as "wagering on the turn" and more difficult(at least for me). In the aforementioned P10iar P streak I would have likely set aside my pressed up wager around the 7th hit, reduced to 1.0 Base Unit til  the end. So with my pressed-up and set aside wager preparing to be sent out I would have been extra cautious on the next hand after the P-Streak ending B1. Sometimes I will wait one more hand to try and decipher additional intel. Sometimes I will check to see if that B1 hand  had a change in card count(e.g., 4 to 5 or 5 to 4,..etc) from the immediately preceding two hands, and try to glean something from how that would change the very next hands' card order. 

Thx again,

After watching the YT video by 8or9 I then read the bio by Alrelax.

The Karas story is certainly very interesting. I've researched him in past couple days and really intrigued with his story.

I would watch a Karas movie in a heart beat. Its difficult to imagine why no one has produced one(that Im aware of).
Has any forum member played with him? Know him? Additional info ??

From Alrelax Post:
"...With a little over $10,000 in his pocket, Karas went to a bar with a pool table adjacent from the Liberace Plaza on East Tropicana. There he found a wealthy and respected poker and pool player. Karas refused to reveal his name for the sake of his opponent's reputation; he simply referred to him as "Mr. X".

     A classy move by Karas.

...They started playing 9-ball pool at $5,000 a game raising the stakes as games progressed. After Karas won several hundred thousand dollars, they raised the stakes to $40,000 a game. Many gamblers and professional poker players watched Archie play with stakes never seen before. Karas ended up winning $1,200,000. The two decided to play poker at Binion's Horseshoe where Karas won an additional $3,000,000 from Mr. X. Karas was willing to gamble everything he made and continued to raise the stakes to a level few dared to play at...."

"...With a bankroll of $4 million, Karas gambled his bankroll up to $7 million after spending only three months in Vegas. By now, many poker players had heard of Mr. X's losses to Archie. Only the best players dared to challenge him. Karas sat at the Binion's Horseshoe's poker table with 5 of his 7 million dollars in front of him, waiting for any players willing to play for such stakes...."


     Gotta love it.



re:His arrest/ probation, banned from Nevada casinos,...etc.

There seems to be a little more to this story. Possibly more has been published /I simply couldnt find it.  I can't see them prosecuting him for such an alleged crime and then not going for some of his assets, pushing for more punitive consequences,..etc, and then after all the hoopla just settling for the ban/probation. Im not insinuating he is an angel and did no wrong. I also think the cas had an intense desire to get him out of the casinos.

I also don't buy the part that he is broke. When he was up 20mil or 40M , or whatever it was, driving around with 5M in cash,...etc. I can't help but think he was sending stacks of cash back home with his mother, burying in his back yard, buying antique cars, Gold coins,...etc. Something with intrinsic value.  My thinking also is that he didn't choose to continue residing in Vegas (because of the weather or its such a great livable city).

Maybe he backs other players,...etc. Maybe he claimed he was broke so casino/IRS wouldn't go after him with frivolous accusations.

Though I do think he likely gambled back the largest part of his winnings. I also consider the likelihood Karas has been showing us a poker face in recent years to avoid heat from a variety of sources. Some of his concerns could have merit/some may be a little paranoia on his part.

Just wondering/ pondering as I have become very intrigued with him.




Continued Success,

Thx AsymBacGuy for explaining in reply to my Q

"..if we decide to make 7 bets per shoe (by flat betting), every shoe starting with a L will produce more final losing shoes than winning shoes. And the same is oppositely true about shoes starting with a W.
In addition, it's obvious to notice that shoes starting with a L cannot produce all winning shoes as that L must be incorporated among our 7-hand betting streak..."

kfb

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently. lol

I agree AsymBacGuy--that is a catchy phrase.  I think I saw it in a book years ago by Khera: Winners Can Win  or You Can Win,...etc,  something like that.



Continued Success,

Hi Alb

Thx for answering my question.

KFB:
"...*However, lets say we again only received 6/20 P wins in part B (2nd 20-decisions sample).
?Do you then calculate the confidence level again and retry in the very immediate next 20 decisions (i.e., Decisions 41-60)? Or do you address it with another tier of money management or wager size??  Start over?  Other?

Alb
In such cases, I would bet again with same trigger

147th Run For The Roses

WHEN: This year, the Kentucky Derby is on May 1. 2021 Kentucky Derby post time is set for 6:50 p.m.

Where: Churchhill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky.
Probability of Rain: The average high for May 1 is 73 degrees/a low of 53, with rainfall 0.71 inches. The 2018 Derby was the wettest ever recorded, and rain soaked the track again in 2019.

How Long Is Derby:  1 1/4 miles or 10 furlongs, the Kentucky Derby is almost always the longest race run by horses competing in it, which is considered the first leg of the Triple Crown. Secretariat's 1973 time of 1:59.40 remains the fastest.

Who Can Enter: The race is open to up to 20 3-year-old horses that have qualified through Churchill Downs' "Road to the Kentucky Derby" points system. This points system was first implemented for the 2013 running.

How Much Is Purse: The Kentucky Derby is still a $2 million race, with $1.4 million to the winner. Positions are paid out through fifth place.

When Is The KD Draw: "Entries are taken and post positions determined on the Tuesday of Kentucky Derby Week at 11 a.m. The process is random but does have a major effect on the outcome. The inside, No. 1 post is considered the worst possible draw. The No. 17 post is 0-for-38, the only one 1-20 to have not produced a winner.
Last year's winner, Authentic, broke from the No. 18 gate. The highest percentage of winners come from the fifth and 10th posts."

Horse Entries(Not post position):

2021 Kentucky Derby contenders, odds (Taken in part from an article posted 4/26 by CBS Sports Staff)

Horse   Odds

Essential Quality   5-2
Hot Rod Charlie   6-1
Medina Spirit   8-1
Rock Your World   8-1
Known Agenda   12-1
Highly Motivated   15-1
Mandaloun   15-1
Midnight Bourbon   15-1
Super Stock   20-1
Bourbonic   30-1
Dynamic One   30-1
Soup and Sandwich   30-1
Helium   50-1
Hidden Stash   50-1
Like the King   50-1
Sainthood   50-1
Dream Shake   N/A
O Besos   N/A
Get Her Number   N/A
____________________________________________________________________________

How do I wager on Derby day?

My modus operandi is to arrive early on Derby day to a nearby OTB sports book. I always allot  ten  $100 tickets with approx three of the $100 tickets reserved for only the Derby itself. I select approx six or seven races prior to the KD and wager approx $70 on a straight up ticket to Win, along with one Exotic @ $30 approx, and that includes my Win selection as part of it(I strive to not hedge my W horse).
Generally I watch the early races and then depart the OTB  book with sufficient time to get home so I can watch Derby from home.

A couple guidelines I try to implement when selecting my wagers:

a) I like horses to Win that are in the 5:2 odds range or (between 2:1 and 3:1).

b) I like to select my Win horse based on the one I feel is superior(even if it means not getting optimum odds and thus paying a little vig on that selection by not receiving optimum payout). Sometimes that may slightly violate rule (a). Sometimes I will simply choose to skip that race if I'm required to pay too much vig based on my assessment.

c) I like to search for atypical pool balances when selecting my Exotic wager.

d) I like to choose races where <= eight entries. (Obviously difficult on Derby and many other races on D day.

My 2021 picks as of 4/26 without knowing Post Postions:
Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Hot Rod Charlie

*If EQ stays at current 5/2, all other variable stay the same, then it will be my pick to Win.

**I am net negative on horse handicapping based on my past 13 years of record keeping. I typically only bet on days  for the Triple Crown races.

Ok lets hear it from all the horse handicappers.

Best of luck to all,kfb



Info written in part from a fine article published in the Louisville Courier Journal by Emma Austin. I did not verify or confirm the accuracy for any of the info above.  The Odds above extracted from a fine article published by CBS Sports Staff.

Hi Albalaha

In previous post I reiterated you prior comments and you confirmed my interpretation: P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered, so you are confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions.

So going along with your above hypothesis-- lets say we satisfy the first part:
A) P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered,

B) then we examine the next 20 decisions which is the next part of the hypotheses: "...confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions.

     *However, lets say we again only received 6/20 P wins in part B (2nd 20-decisions sample).
?Do you then calculate the confidence level again and retry in the very immediate next 20 decisions (i.e., Decisions 41-60)? Or do you address it with another tier of money management or wager size??  Start over?  Other?


Thx

Thx for posting 8OR9--Good interview.



Continued success,

Hi Alrelax
Excellent P shoe. Thanks (as always) for taking the time to post these.
I think most of us would have caught 6-8 of that 10iar P run. However, in my efforts to catch another smaller P run immediately afterward I may have missed most or at least the first 3-4 of that 8iar single B1 streak that promptly showed next. re: the 8iar B1 streak---that's the kind of run that tends to slip up on us, as i sometimes look back in hindsight and wonder how I didn't see that (usually because i was overly focused on NOT that). 
Great shoe.

As my great uncle Confucius once said: "When in doubt just keep riding the horse in the direction its headed."



Continued Success To All,

Hi Alrelax

re: your sentence  "...Except player will and does have a better chance to form more clumps and runs then Banker does..."

Can you give an example of what u mean by clumps. For example are you referencing outcomes such as : PPPbPPPbPPPP for a (10-2) P-dom clump?? or say: PPPPPPP b PPPPPPPP ,...etc where two long runs are back-to-back,   or are you referring to something else ?  None of the above?

Thx in advance

Hi AsymBacGuy
Good post above.

I like this statement: "...Imo winning by flat betting means that after long trials our strategy got more winning clusters than expected and not because the strategy tried to contain in some way the losing clusters' counterpart, even though the latter could be inferior in number..."

AS: "...How many hands should we play per shoe to get the most of the above features?

Of course the "shoe presenting all winning spots" must be restricted within a relatively short bets amount, we've found out that on average one hand per every ten hands dealt are a good approximated ratio to look for.
That is 7-8 bets per playable shoe, of course this being an expression of average outcomes' distribution.
Naturally more often than not we need just one betting spot to be ahead when searching at a simple WW spot.
Losing spots coming out along the way (especially at the very first situation considered) reduce such ratio up to the point that we can simply get rid of that shoe without losing a dime..."[/b]

re:  The Bold Part.   I think I understand, however, could you give a specific example for the sentence in BOLD,

Thank you

Continued Success,